The definitive tournament speculation thread

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

"... Hamline needs to count on winning."

Kiss of Death.

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

You talk about how close Plattsburgh and Geneseo are: so how much would records against ranked teams affect your thinking? With a quick look at schedules, I put Plattsburgh at about 7-3-1 (that would change depending on how the bottom of the rankings look) and Geneseo at 3-3-1. Would that change your perspective?

Just eyeballing it, I think you may be overestimating Plattsburgh's record against ranked teams. For one, that win against Middlebury very likely was not against a ranked team. Would it change my perspective? Of course, all new information changes my perspective. I wrote my column Sunday night and things have already changed significantly. Enough to change the comparison? I think it would take a level of disparity you suggested to clearly move me in that direction.

But Geneseo being ranked ahead of Plattsburgh is a temporary situation anyways. If the Cardinals don't overtake the Ice Knights by the end of the regular season, I think the playoffs will likely seal the deal.

Hobart's fate would seem to be decided by its final six games coming up (2 vs. Neumann, Elmira, and Manhattanville)...that could make the Plattsburgh-Geneseo comparison moot...

A lot of things could make the Plattsburgh-Geneseo comparison moot. And don't underestimate the ability of another ECAC-West team to shoot above them if Hoabrt falters.

Do you think the Ice Knights will still be in this discussion at the end of the season or did they peak a little bit too early? You write that they stack up well against the ECAC-W--how badly then did losing to Elmira hurt their Pool C chances? If, in a best case scenario, they run the table the rest of the season (yes, beating Oswego in Oswego) do they become a safer bet for a Pool C?

I don't really believe in "peaking too early" or not. I think your talent vs. your schedule shows over the course of a season. Generally, Geneseo has beaten the teams they were suppose to and lost to the teams they were suppose to. This does appear to be a different Geneseo team than any I've seen at the school (7th in the nation in scoring defense, 2nd fewest penalty minutes per game in the country - behind only Plattsburgh), but I don't see them running the table, which means they'll be in this muddled middle without some playoff upsets.

To clarify, I said they've had some encouraging results against ECAC-West teams. But their SOS just isn't there to make me comfortable with their PWC against those teams. The good news? When you get to secondary criteria, Geneseo's WIN jumps to 0.700 without having to take a SOS hit from the Franklin Pierce games due to a loophole in secondary criteria that doesn't re-calculate SOS to include those teams' records. Barring running the table or winning the tournament, I see Geneseo firmly on the bubble until the bitter end.

I think most of us are operating under the assumption St. Norbert is a lock to make it even if they don't win the NCHA. That being said, which other Western division leader has a better shot of nabbing a Pool C bid if they lose in their conference tourney: Adrain or Hamline? The PairWise Comparison has them at 2 points each.

I would love to say Adrian's H2H win would get them in over Hamline, but SOS is perhaps even more important. But I don't see either being a big player in the at-large discussion.

I did read your blog post, but was just wondering how it would work if Hamline or Adrian loses since you project 4 Western teams. I guess the question should have been, if Adrian loses and Hamline and Norbert don't, does Adrian get in over Superior?

If it's not Superior, it will be an eastern team. My column also starts out saying the west could be in real trouble this year. Honestly, I think we might have the best setup for an 8-3 split ever.

I know you've declared the MASCAC DOA, but if some team runs the table through the playoffs, they may have a better Win Pct than the ECAC-W. If that happens, then WinPct and SoS will offset.

No, they won't. SOS counts more. That's been made pretty clear over the past few years. You don't get at large bids for having high records against poor competition. Even a lower WIN with a stronger SOS has been shown to get in. See: Neumann, 2009.

Very few have common opponents and unless they play shenanigens with the rankings, I doubt more than one MASCAC team will be ranked. So while they are on life support, and it will take a miracle, it could happen.

No, it can't. I am 99.9999999999% sure a MASCAC team will not play in the tournament this year. You can just ask every MCHA team before they had an AQ. Not playing ranked teams hurts you, not helps you. An ECAC-West team with a 3-5-1 record against ranked teams would get more credit than a MASCAC team with a 1-1-1 record against ranked teams. Think of it as double dipping on SOS.

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

With the top 13 SOS teams from the SUNYAC and ECAC/W, the selection process should be a hoot.

Those numbers are from the KRACH, and thus useless for the selection process. I'll see what I can come up with for SOS using the NCAA formula.

EDIT: Here's the list of everyone with a SOS above .500 using the NCAA criteria. If you aren't on this list at the end of the season, your chance of getting an at-large bid is nil.
Elmira
Eau Claire
Utica
Stevens Point
Oswego
Superior
Hobart
Morrisville
St. Norbert
Plattsbugh
Stout
Manhattanville
Buffalo State
Neumann
Norwich
St. Thomas
Hamline
Geneseo
Babson

This list is in order, and the relative placement of Norwich, Hamline, and Geneseo is exactly why fans of those teams should not feel encouraged.

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

1. It is impossible to predict with accuracy the teams that will be selected into the tournament. I will try anyways. Matt Rennell will also try, but be less successful.

Hey Joshua, why don't you come down here and say that to my face. I'll buy you a soda and you can tell me how wrong I am.

PS: I didn't respond to this earlier because I didn't notice it until it was pointed out to me. As usual I just scanned quickly through your post to get through the fluff

[CardinalSin]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh, great info , It is good to see someone is willing to carry the load while everyone tries to poke holes in the theory .

Just one quick request , other than the obvious autobid , what alignment of the stars favors a Pool C bid for the Cards ,if any exist.

[PuckHound]

The final four will take place somewhere in the arctic, among the top four remaining teams.

I guess I was under the impression that the final four sites were all predetermined these days...likley to be in the West given the east hosting the past few.

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I guess I was under the impression that the final four sites were all predetermined these days...likley to be in the West given the east hosting the past few.

You would be correct. This year's final four will be hosted by the NCHA at Minnestoa's Ridder Arena in Minneapolis, MN. This will be followed by 2 more yers of Plattsburgh and ORDA co-hosting at the Herb Brooks Arena in Lake Placid, NY.

[elbojpb]

Bizarro World

Here's the list of everyone with a SOS above .500 using the NCAA criteria. If you aren't on this list at the end of the season, your chance of getting an at-large bid is nil.

JC - Still the top 8 Eastern teams are all from New York State, and Norwich has the top-ranked SOS outside of the SUNYAC or ECAC/W. Contrast with last year when the NESCAC had 5 or 6 of the top 11 in NCAA ranked teams.

With the second primary criterion seemingly being so skewed, and an unwritten bias to ensure two Western teams make the FF, [with all due respect] I don't think anyone will come close to predicting what will emerge from the oxygen deprived NCAA cavern this season. (although I have been known to err in the past)

PS - I do appreciate the work you've put into this.

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Up to Date PWC's

East
West
National <== though this table does not look accurate

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh, great info , It is good to see someone is willing to carry the load while everyone tries to poke holes in the theory .

Just one quick request , other than the obvious autobid , what alignment of the stars favors a Pool C bid for the Cards ,if any exist.

Root for parity in the ECAC-West and NCHA, with those teams beating up on each other, Plattsburgh to keep winning, and maybe a few losses from Geneseo. The Cardinals are actually in a pretty strong Pool C position, especially if they can get to the SUNYAC Final against Oswego.

I guess I was under the impression that the final four sites were all predetermined these days...likley to be in the West given the east hosting the past few.

My comment might have just been some good-natured ribbing at the people of the state of Minnesota...

JC - Still the top 8 Eastern teams are all from New York State, and Norwich has the top-ranked SOS outside of the SUNYAC or ECAC/W. Contrast with last year when the NESCAC had 5 or 6 of the top 11 in NCAA ranked teams.

This is very easily explained actually. The "east" is essentially two regions: New York and New England. The small number of games between these two sub-regions means that a small number of results between them will skew overall totals. A great example of this was NUProf's computer rankings two years ago when things got all screwy based on a few abnormal results between the east and west regions.

If you look at this table you can see "New York" has had strong success against "New England" this year. The SUNYAC carries a 9-3-0 record against the ECAC-East, 3-2-1 against the NESCAC, and 9-0-0 against the NE. The ECAC-W comes in at 1-1-2 against the East, 4-0-1 against the NESCAC, and 8-0-1 against the NE with one win against the MASCAC. The total of that puts New York at 35-6-5 against New England, or a winning percentage of 0.8152. That not only pushes up New York's winning percentage, but also their collective strength of schedule, since those teams are now playing each other in conference play.

Last year the SUNYAC was 6-3-3 against the ECAC-E, 6-3-1 against the NESCAC, 8-2-0 against the NE and 2-0-0 against the MASCAC. The ECAC-West was 0-1-1 against the East, 1-3-1 against the NESCAC, and 6-5-0 against the NE. That translates to a New York record of 29-17-6, or a .6154 winning percentage, which is why the numbers tilted much more towards New England last year.

With the second primary criterion seemingly being so skewed, and an unwritten bias to ensure two Western teams make the FF, (with all due respect)

Just like in 2007, right?

I don't think anyone will come close to predicting what will emerge from the oxygen deprived NCAA cavern this season. (although I have been known to err in the past)

I think the fact I just broke down why this year's numbers are so different than last year's is kind of encouraging...

Up to Date PWC's
National <== though this table does not look accurate

The national table is notorious for being screwed up. Best to ignore it for anything other than COP and just use the regional tables. That's essentially what the committee does anyways.

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

As of 10:20 PM

Salem State: Win Pct .722 SoS: .503

They are now a CareyTUC (with still no shot).

Please voters, do not rank or put SSU in the polls this week!!!!!

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Salem State: They are now a CareyTUC

I am trademarking that for sure now.

(with still no shot).

I will address that in this week's column.

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

This week's projections, just so Josh can tell me how wrong I am, only to have egg on his face come Tuesday...

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Hobart
5- Geneseo
6- Plattsburgh
7- Manhattanville
8- Castleton
9- Norwich
10- Salem State
11- Neumann
12- Fitchburg State
13- Bowdoin
14- Buffalo State
15- Hamilton

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Hamline
3- Wis. Stevens Point
4- Wis. Superior
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- Wis. Stout
7- Adrian

Pool A
ECAC East: Castleton
ECACNE: Curry
NCHA: St. Norbert
MIAC: Hamline
MCHA: Adrian
NESCAC: Bowdoin
SUNYAC: Oswego

Pool B
Elmira

Pool C contenders.
East: Utica, Hobart, Geneseo
West: UWSP, UWS, UWEC

Utica vs. UWSP- not even worth discussing. Utica in a landslide.

Next let's look at Hobart vs. UWSP- again, Hobart has a significant advantage so there is not much discussion.

Lastly let's compare Geneseo and UWSP- Geneseo has a win % of .7222 and a SOS of .5151 while UWSP has a win % of .5714 and a SOS of .5520. If we bring in the secondary criteria we add a win to Hamline and a loss to UWEC to Geneseo. We also add a loss to Hobart and Oswego for UWSP. Which makes common ops records 3-3-0 for UWSP and 2-2-0 for Geneseo. A tie. Even if we look at record in last 25% of the season. Both teams come in at 4-1-0. So, we've come to a situation where it can't really get much closer. That said I am going to call it in favor of UWSP for two reason. 1) SOS historically is weighed the most and 2) The FF is in the West. While this is not in the listed criteria the human element is always involved in any decision. It really is too close to call but one must be made.

The Field

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Hobart
5- Castleton
6- Bowdoin
7- Curry

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Hamline
3- Wis. Stevens Point
4- Adrian

NCAA Play Ins

Curry @ Elmira
Bowdoin @ Utica
Castleton @ Hobart

NCAA Quarterfinals
Adrian @ St. Norbert
Wis. Stevens Point @ Hamline
Castleton/Hobart @ Oswego
Bowdoin/Utica @ Curry/Elmira

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I don't think 2 MASCAC teams will be ranked.

Question for Matt and Josh - once you are ranked, you are always ranked, right? So if #15 tanks, do we end up with 16 ranked teams????

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I don't think 2 MASCAC teams will be ranked.

Question for Matt and Josh - once you are ranked, you are always ranked, right? So if #15 tanks, do we end up with 16 ranked teams????

I'd like to see Josh's response to this as well, but IMO there is no viable option to replace them with. Due to the fact that they really don't have that many common opponents or H2H match ups with the other TUC, we have to go really by win% and SOS. The thing is, there is only 1 team with a better SOS than them who I do not already have ranked. That would be Colby. Here is how that shakes down. *Note: Salem also beat Colby H2H.

SOS
Colby- .5049
Salem- .5027
Fitchburg- .5010

There is no difference in that, at all. Now let's compare their win %.

Salem- .7222
Fitchburg- .6765
Colby- .5000

A very wide gap between the MASCAC pair and Colby. It's not even close.

Now, if we look at the win% of the rest of the field. There is not a team with a better win% than Salem who is not already ranked. There is only one team ahead of Fitchburg in win% who is not ranked and that is UMass Boston.

Win%
UMB- .7059
Fitchburg- .6765

And their SOS's
Fitchburg- .5010
UMB- .4689

Not to mention, Fitchburg beat UMB H2H as well.

If Salem and Fitchburg aren't ranked, the committee is not going by the numbers. Because there is no remotely logical way to rank any team over them who I have not already ranked. The numbers just aren't there.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised by anything on Tuesday.