How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

[blockski]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

I wrote about that last night in the Ferris thread. If we take Ferris' TUC record right now and use it, Ferris would drop 6 comparisons, dropping them down to #9 in the PWR. That's why the next 3 weeks are absolutely crucial for us and our tournament chances.

Right - the catch is that if they keep that same record against TUCs, their RPI will likely drop some as well, so all of that drop can't be attributed to the TUC comparison clicking in - but it's certainly something to keep an eye on.

Look at Bemidji - they might not get to 10 games. They're at 5 right now, with 2 coming up against UMD. Other than that, they've got two against RPI #26 UNO later in the season, and they've already played RPI #28 Minnesota twice - but they've also played RPI #24 Minnesota State twice (and lost both).

All of those teams could move in or out of BSU's RPI resume, which will both change the chances of them ending the season with at least 10 TUC games, and also potentially changing the pool of results against those TUCs. For example, if Minnesota (with whom BSU split) became a TUC instead of Minnesota State (who swept BSU), that's a net gain for the Beavers - IF they get to 10 games overall...

[Hammer]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Priceless, unless you've got something else I haven't seen, a rough cut tells me that Ferris' TUC record would cause them to lose the comparisons to Wisconsin, Yale, North Dakota, UMass, Union and Alaska. The MSU comparison would also be extremely close, but Ferris would still hang on to that one at the moment. That moves them from 22 points to 16, sliding them down to #9.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Priceless, unless you've got something else I haven't seen, a rough cut tells me that Ferris' TUC record would cause them to lose the comparisons to Wisconsin, Yale, North Dakota, UMass, Union and Alaska. The MSU comparison would also be extremely close, but Ferris would still hang on to that one at the moment.

I used the calculator at the link in my first post. I reduced the TUC requirement to 1 game.

[Hammer]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

That's fine. I did mine by the seat of my pants at 12:30 this morning. I just looked at the individual comparisons that Ferris currently carries and went from there.

[MaizeRage]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Look at Bemidji - they might not get to 10 games. They're at 5 right now, with 2 coming up against UMD. Other than that, they've got two against RPI #26 UNO later in the season, and they've already played RPI #28 Minnesota twice - but they've also played RPI #24 Minnesota State twice (and lost both).

They'd need Northern Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota State, and Nebraska-Omaha all to end up on the right side of the top 25, or hope that Western Michigan goes on a run and replaces one of them to reach the 10-game minimum, which seems really unlikely to me.

[blockski]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

They'd need Northern Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota State, and Nebraska-Omaha all to end up on the right side of the top 25, or hope that Western Michigan goes on a run and replaces one of them to reach the 10-game minimum, which seems really unlikely to me.

Well, they've got 3 games against teams that will almost certainly be TUCs (1 v Miami, 2 v UMD) at the end of the season.

So, they need 7 more. They've got possibles (ranked by current RPI)

2 v. #23 NMU
2 v. #24 Minnesota State
2 v. #26 UNO
1 v. #30 OSU
2 v. #33 WMU

So, yeah, they'd need all of those teams to play stronger to give that comparison a shot. Not that BSU wants it to count, really.

Their other consideration is that they're RPI will likely erode some in the second half, regardless of results, simply due to their weaker schedule.

[Red Till I'm Dead!]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

I am just not sure on Ferris St to stay up in the Pairwise. I saw them get drubbed by Yale and they may have beaten Merrimack, but they did not pass the "eye" test. Merrimack was spent from giving UW all they could handle the night before and were flat but Ferris was VERY sloppy and slow.

Maybe it was the holiday weekend, but I think Ferris St will have a tough time staying a one seed.

[SCSU Euro]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Must be too early, 'cause a mediocre SCSU squad is not only currently in the dance but a spot out of being a top 8 squad.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

The PWR now looks like this:

1t Miami
1t Denver
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4t Wisconsin
---
4t Ferris State
6 St. Cloud State
7t Union
7t Bemidji State
---
9 Boston College
10t Massachusetts
10t Colorado College
12t North Dakota
---
12t Vermont
14 Michigan State
15t New Hampshire
15t Yale
17t Lake Superior
17t Cornell
17t Michigan
20 Maine
21 Alaska
22 Mass.-Lowell
23t Minnesota
23t Northern Michigan
25 Notre Dame

82.5% of the field is set by mid-January. Historically, 11 teams are in the field, 4 teams are in the same band as they'll be seeded and 2 are in the same place. The highest seed to fall out is still that 2004 St. Cloud squad, that dropped from #4 and wound up missing the tournament. The lowest ranked team to qualify is #24 Maine in 2006.

Of the #1 seeds, 27 of 28 qualified for the tournament. Of those, 18 of the 27 remained #1 seeds.
Among the #2 seeds, 26 of 28 qualified for the NCAAs.
Among the #3 seeds, 19 of 28 made the tournament, but never have all four qualified. So history tells us at least one of the teams ranked 9-12 won't make the tournament. More bad news for CC fans...
Of the ever-volatile 4th seeds, 10 of the 15 made the field. Right now the cutoff is #15 because Bemidji State has played their way into the tournament, as well as all the autobids except the AHA.

For this analysis, the PWR from 2003-2009 was used. Dates examined were New Year's, the second weekend in January, post-Beanpot, the end of February and at the beginning of the conference tournaments. The next report will come after the Beanpot in February.

[The Paragon of Virtue]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

The highest seed to fall out is still that 2004 St. Cloud squad, that dropped from #4 and wound up missing the tournament.

It just had to be SCSU, didn't it?

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Today's PWR:

1 Miami (CC)
2 Denver U (WC)
3 Wisconsin (WC)
4 St Cloud (WC)
---
5 Bemidji State (CH)
6 Boston Coll (HE)
7 Maine (HE)
8 CO College (WC)
---
9 Mass-Amherst (HE)
10 Minn-Duluth (WC)
11 Vermont (HE)
12 North Dakota (WC)
---
13 Ferris State (CC)
14 Mich State (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
16 New Hampshire (HE)
17 Yale (EC)
18 Union (EC)
19 AK-Fairbanks (CC)
20 Michigan (CC)
21 Lake Superior (CC)
22 Minnesota (WC)
23 Northern Mich (CC)
24 NorthEastern (HE)
25 Mass-Lowell (HE)

The cut line is officially 13, because the ECAC autobid (#15 Cornell) and the Hockey East autobid (#16 New Hampshire) are not in the field. Sorry Michigan State. Things have remained stable at the top, with the exception of Ferris State, which had the TUC kick in and flip several comparisons.

Now that the Beanpot (and most non-conference) games are in the past, the PWR is 84.5% accurate in selecting teams. Statistically, 11 teams currently in the bracket will be in the tournament come March. The highest rated team to miss the tournament now is Denver, which dropped from #7 in 2007. The same year UMass-Amherst rose from #21 to make the tournament.

The PWR is also better at telling us which seeds teams will get. 45% of teams (6) will be in the same band as they are now.

Of the #1 seeds, all 28 qualified for the tournament. 23 remained #1 seeds.
Of the #2 seeds, 27 of 28 qualified for the tournament. Only 8 remained #2 seeds.
Of the #3 seeds, 23 of 28 qualified for the tournament. Again, 8 remained #3 seeds.
The #4 seeds remain the most volatile, with only 4 teams making the tournament.

Warning to the WCHA: 8 of the 15 teams that dropped out of the tournament came from that conference. Bad news for North Dakota and UMD. The Bulldogs were ranked 10th in 2008 and missed the tournament.

For this analysis, the PWR from 2003-2009 was used. Dates examined were New Year's, the second weekend in January, post-Beanpot, the end of February and at the beginning of the conference tournaments. The next report will come at the end of the month.

Links:
Do It Yourself Rankings
Sioux Sports PWR
The USCHO PWR page
USCHO PWR Explaation page
The Braketology Blog
The 2010 FAQ

[Rich]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Warning to the WCHA: 8 of the 15 teams that dropped out of the tournament came from that conference. Bad news for North Dakota and UMD. The Bulldogs were ranked 10th in 2008 and missed the tournament.

Thanks for the post - this is great information!

I think that we're likely to see a WCHA team drop out again this year. With 6 WCHA teams currently above the cut line, one of those is guaranteed to lose their first round league playoff series, which will almost certainly drop them in the PWR. Since it's most likely that a lower ranked team will have that happen due to playing a tougher opponent, possibly on the road, I won't be at all surprised to see the WCHA end up with only 5 teams. UMD, UND, and CC all need to watch out. They each have some tough games coming up - UND and CC in particular - and UND and CC appear as though they might be headed towards a first round league playoff series against each other. If that happens I wouldn't be surprised to see the loser of that series miss the cut. What a storm it will create if the loser of that series makes it though!

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Today's PWR:

1 Denver U (WC)
2 Miami (CC)
3 Wisconsin (WC)
4 St Cloud (WC)
---
5 Bemidji State (CH)
6 Boston Coll (HE)
7 North Dakota (WC)
8 Yale (EC)
---
9 AK-Fairbanks (CC)
10 New Hampshire (HE)
11 Cornell (EC)
12 Mich State (CC)
---
13 Vermont (HE)
14 Minn-Duluth (WC)
15 Ferris State (CC)
---
16 Northern Mich (CC)
17 Maine (HE)
18 NE-Omaha (CC)
19 Union (EC)
20 CO College (WC)
21 NorthEastern (HE)
22 Mass-Lowell (HE)
23 Boston Univ (HE)
24 Minnesota (WC)
25 Michigan (CC)

The cut line returns to 15 as all expected autobids except the AHA Champ are already in the field.

The PWR has accurately predicted 93.33% of the teams to make the tournament field. Statistically, 14 of the 15 teams projected to be in the field today will make the eventual field. Twice the tournament field has been exactly what was projected at the end of February (only seeds were different). The caveat is that we don't know the eventual cut line because upsets in the conference tournaments could "steal" spots in the field. The highest-ranked team to lose a spot in the field is #8 Denver in 2007. The only other top 10 team to lose a spot is #9 MSU-Mankato in 2008. The lowest-ranked teams to earn an at-large berth are #18 Colgate in 2005 and #18 Michigan State in 2007. Last year's Air Force team was ranked #20 and played their way to #14, but they won their conference title and so were not an at-large team.

The PWR also gives us an idea of which band a team will end up in when the season ends. 48.5% of teams were the same seed they were in at the end of the year. That means seven of the teams in this field will remain in their bands.

Of the #1 seeds, all 28 qualified for the tournament. 23 remained #1 seeds.
Of the #2 seeds, 27 of 28 qualified. 13 remained #2 seeds.
Of the #3 seeds, 25 of 28 qualified. 10 remained #3 seeds.
Only 7 of 15 #4 seeds qualified, with 4 remaining #4 seeds.

Of the 9 teams to miss the tournament 6 came from the WCHA. If current #4 seed UMD qualifies, the Bulldogs will really be bucking tradition.

This is the final report because the end of the month also coincides with the beginning of the conference tournaments. After this coming weekend I'll project which teams have mathematically qualified for the NCAA tournament, regardless of their performance in the conference tournaments.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

This is a glance at what teams have wrapped up playoff berths regardless of what happens in their conference tournaments. It is not in-depth because there are still way too many combinations out there. Things will become clearer after this weekend.

Hockey East and Atlantic Hockey do not have a third-place game. Other conferences do. Those games could be elimination games in many cases; at the same time these games could propel teams into the NCAAs.

Miami: In the tournament. Even with a loss to Ohio State and two losses at the Joe, they are still a #1 seed heading to Fort Wayne.

Denver: In the tournament. Even with a loss to MTU and two losses at the F5, they are a #1 seed. More than likely, they are heading to either Worcester or Albany.

Wisconsin: In the tournament. Even with a loss to UAA and two losses at the F5, they are a #1 seed. They are probably headed to St. Paul or Albany.

Boston College: In the tournament. Two losses to UMass leave the Eagles as a #2 or #3 seed. If they advance past this weekend, even with a loss, they will be a #2 seed. They can clinch the final #1 seed by making it to the Hockey East Championship.

North Dakota: In the tournament. A sweep by Minnesota leaves them a #3 seed, but above the cut line. If they advance to the F5 they should be a #2 seed. If they win the WCHA title the Sioux will get the final #1 seed.

Bemidji State: In the tournament. Even with a pair of losses in the CHA tournament at Niagara they are above the cut line. There is an outside chance that if they sweep they can get the final #1 seed.

Alaska: Not in the tournament yet. A sweep at NMU and Alaska is done. The Nanooks need at least one win to have a chance. If they pull the upset and go to the Joe they are in and probably a #2 seed. Even by winning the CCHA title, they cannot get the last #1 seed.

St. Cloud: In the tournament. Probably a #2 seed. If they win the WCHA title they have a chance to get the final #1 seed.

Yale: Not in the tournament yet. Need to advance to the ECAC semis and win a game to be certain of a spot.

New Hampshire: Not in the tournament yet. Need to advance to the Hockey East semis to get a spot.

Cornell: Not in the tournament yet. Need to advance to the ECAC semis and win a game.

Michigan State: Not in the tournament yet. Not guaranteed to be a TUC (this is the TUC line). Need to advance to the Joe and win a game to earn a spot.

Other teams are very much on the bubble. The lowest ranked team that can make the field without winning the autobid is Minnesota, which will be on the bubble if they lose the WCHA title game. Bubble teams that can earn at-large berths without clinching the conference autobid:

Ferris State
Northern Michigan
Minnesota-Duluth
Nebraska-Omaha
Vermont
Mass.-Lowell
Massachusetts
Maine
Colorado College
Union
Minnesota

To sum up: Our #1 seeds are Miami, Denver and Wisconsin. North Dakota, St. Cloud, Bemidji State and Boston College will be the 4th #1 seed. The top six teams are in the tournament, as is #8 St. Cloud. Everyone still playing is technically alive thanks to the autobid, but 23 teams are still alive to qualify without the autobid.

[Priceless]

Re: How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

The lowest-ranked team to make the field at this point is #19 Notre Dame in 2008. Colgate came from #18 in 2005. That same season #8 Dartmouth was the highest seed to drop out of the field. Denver has dropped out three times (2003, 2006, 2007). Of the 10 teams that dropped out, six were from the WCHA.