Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

[J.D.]

I think people want to believe they're independent and free thinking when in reality they end up always voting the same way. We've heard many times the statement of "I'm not crazy about Bush/McCain/Romney/Trump/etc but I wish the Democrats would put somebody up that I could vote for". Its all self serving BS, but its something they like to tell themselves as well as pollsters. Chump will get his 62M and 45% or so of the vote. How many people turn out and vote Dem is the difference between narrow Chump win and epic Chump loss.

You're probably right but speaking for myself...I voted for McCain and then independent candidate last time. This time, Biden even though when I hear him speak it frightens me. I don't have to agree with you hardcore liberals on every detail but I want Trump out. And I do think there are a lot of people like me out there. We shall see.

[J.D.]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Of course I live in MA so it doesn't matter who I vote for. Trump will get trounced for sure here.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

I agree that it will come down to that small class of voters who either show up and vote D or stay home. And as much as we all learned in '16 to NEVER take an outcome for granted, I'm starting to feel Trump is gonna get evicted in November. I'll still do the grunt work this fall to ensure that happens, and there is a lot of time between now and November. But unless there is a major change in momentum, I think he's history this fall.

That's a confession. For the record? Be prepared for him to win, as most incumbents do.

Yep. For President, it's about a 2/3 success rate.

Incumbents who sought and won reelection: (22 (20 if you only count FDR once))
George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Abraham Lincoln
Ulysses Grant
William McKinley
Theodore Roosevelt
Woodrow Wilson
Calvin Coolidge
Franklin Roosevelt (x3)
Harry Truman
Dwight Eisenhower
Lyndon Johnson
Richard Nixon
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

Incumbents who sought and lost their bid for a second term: (10)
John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
Grover Cleveland
Benjamin Harrison
William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Gerald Ford
Jimmy Carter
George H.W. Bush

[Kepler]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

And Ford was never elected so he's a special case.

I would say Dump is so spectacularly bad he ought to lose, but Dubya ought to have lost. That election left a mark -- it taught me elections are tribal; there is no rational element to them whatsoever. Obviously Dump's election in the first place confirmed this.

The Republicans elected that steaming pile of dog sh-t to the office of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and FDR. Even if we dispose of him in November they will never live that down and we can never forget what they are capable of.

[Drew S.]

And Ford was never elected so he's a special case.

I would say Dump is so spectacularly bad he ought to lose, but Dubya ought to have lost. That election left a mark -- it taught me elections are tribal; there is no rational element to them whatsoever. Obviously Dump's election in the first place confirmed this.

The Republicans elected that steaming pile of dog sh-t to the office of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and FDR. Even if we dispose of him in November they will never live that down and we can never forget what they are capable of.

I’m not sure about your opinion on 2004. It wasn’t that long after 9/11 and the Iraq War. Bush actually did work across the aisle and Kerry was a lot more unlikable than Biden. Also Bush is a million times more likable than Trump.

[burd]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

I’m not sure about your opinion on 2004. It wasn’t that long after 9/11 and the Iraq War. Bush actually did work across the aisle and Kerry was a lot more unlikable than Biden. Also Bush is a million times more likable than Trump.

As soon as 9/11 happened people expressed fear that Dubya would go into Iraq. He did, under circumstances his own VP had very clearly and accurately warned against when he acted as SecDef for Bush I. It was the most catastrophic foreign policy decision since we became engaged in Vietnam, and by the time the 04 election came around, that was obvious to anyone not completely bound up in their own confirmation bias.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Luckily there are very few Catholics in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Oh.

Wait. https://t.co/ANidIoJtSd

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) June 5, 2020

[bronconick]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

As soon as 9/11 happened people expressed fear that Dubya would go into Iraq. He did, under circumstances his own VP had very clearly and accurately warned against when he acted as SecDef for Bush I. It was the most catastrophic foreign policy decision since we became engaged in Vietnam, and by the time the 04 election came around, that was obvious to anyone not completely bound up in their own confirmation bias.

People rally around the flag during wartime. Polling didn't fully tilt against Bush over deciding to invade Iraq until after the 2004 election.

[burd]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

People rally around the flag during wartime. Polling didn't fully tilt against Bush over deciding to invade Iraq until after the 2004 election.

You're right, of course. If the support has shifted prior to the election, he would have lost. But the reality was out there in November 2004, and that is partly why that vote was so shameful.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

And Ford was never elected so he's a special case.

Also, Cleveland did win a second term, just not a consecutive one.

[Kepler]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Luckily there are very few Catholics in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Oh.

Wait. https://t.co/ANidIoJtSd

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) June 5, 2020

This is good news. PRRI is ranked as Least Biased by mediabiasfactcheck.

I am shocked Dump was ever in the 60s with white Catholics, though I think I am biased because half my neighborhood growing up were the type of white Catholics who vote for Ford and Reagan but not Goldwater or Nixon.

[SJHovey]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Another interesting fact. The country has never seen a situation where four different individuals each served at least eight years as President, in a row.

Jefferson, Madison and Monroe each served eight years, but JQ Adams only lasted four.

FDR, Truman and Ike each served at least eight years, but JFK was assassinated.

Clinton, Bush II and Obama each served eight.

Seems like if we were going to break that streak, Trump would be an unusual one to choose to do it.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Another interesting fact. The country has never seen a situation where four different individuals each served at least eight years as President, in a row.

Jefferson, Madison and Monroe each served eight years, but JQ Adams only lasted four.

FDR, Truman and Ike each served at least eight years, but JFK was assassinated.

Clinton, Bush II and Obama each served eight.

Seems like if we were going to break that streak, Trump would be an unusual one to choose to do it.

Small nit, Truman did not serve 8 full years. He took office following FDRs death on April 12, 1945 and Eisenhower was inaugurated Jan. 20, 1953, so he was about 3 months short of 8 years. Truman's name appeared on an early primary in 1952 but following a loss to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver he publicly announced he would not run. The 22nd amendment was adopted during Truman's presidency but did not apply to him as he was grandfathered. It prohibits people from being elected to the presidency more than twice or serving more than 10 years as president.

[Kepler]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Small nit, Truman did not serve 8 full years. He took office following FDRs death on April 12, 1945 and Eisenhower was inaugurated Jan. 20, 1953, so he was about 3 months short of 8 years. Truman's name appeared on an early primary in 1952 but following a loss to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver he publicly announced he would not run.

I came here to post this. Thanks!

[SJHovey]

Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Small nit, Truman did not serve 8 full years. He took office following FDRs death on April 12, 1945 and Eisenhower was inaugurated Jan. 20, 1953, so he was about 3 months short of 8 years. Truman's name appeared on an early primary in 1952 but following a loss to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver he publicly announced he would not run.

You're right. Removes one more instance, so this would just be the second time, if Trump were re-elected and served the full term.