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Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

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  • #31
    Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

    Finances are only part of the answer, albeit an important part. The larger question for colleges is whether they can even house students first semester, or if they have to remain as on-line learning. No colleges have answered that yet, and for the major ones, the push of football revenue is a piece of that analysis -- but it still pales in comparison to the broader question of having an on-campus first semester (or year). Another aspect is the liability of allowing students back on, and then having an outbreak. The bills that Congress is considering now may shield that liability somewhat. Apart from the financial liability, there is a real concern about the health and safety of the students, and if there is an outbreak, potneially pulling the plug on the semester mid semster.
    There is also the issue of whether a college can charge the same high tuition for an on-line experience. (Michigan State has already been sued for not just room and board, but also a tuition rebate. https://statenews.com/article/2020/0...nd-fee-refunds Johns-Hopkins faces the same criticism even though it provided rebates on the room and board, but not tuition). https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronav...r5m-story.html
    U.Maryland is giving some tuition rebates. This is for last semester, where everyone was caught without informed decisions. What happens for next year, where everyone goes in with their eyes open about what the college is planning to charge for online only. The cost of that "rebate" vs. the ability to charge full whack is something each college will have to make based on its own supply and demand equasion, so Harvard and BC will have a different answer than Ferris State and Merrimack.

    The BU contingency plan, which I'm sure every other school has considered, but not said out loud, is whether to push first semester to second semester, with second semester replaing summer school. That makes the most sense to buy some time without dealing with the "online" issue. There is at least a plausible chance of normalcy in January, and that way a school can earn the full tuition for two semi normal semesters.


    If colleges can even get past those core financial issues, there is the issue of minimizing risk in a "normal" on-campus environment. I'm guessing having events for 4,000 people to gather is pretty low on that list. Especially if the revenue doesn't warrant the risk. So then, do you have events for on-line games, just for the sake of entertainment? And what happens if BU starts January 1, but Maine chooses to open first semster because they're a more rural school? Are they going to re-do the schedule on the fly?

    If I'm a hockey coach, I'd expect not to play next year. We'll see them defer the kids, why waste a year at college if there are no, or minimal games? It's not that they'll get to play in the junior leagues, as those games are in jeopardy, too. I think it'll be limbo until 2021. I'm particularly attunded to these questions because I have two senior daughters (they're done with the new normal), and even they are considering a deferral for exactly these reasons, namely the on-line limits to education (they'd be in lab classes), and also the loss of the actual freshman experience. Because no colleges have publicly announced their plans/contingencies/costs, we'll be in the same limbo until August, and perhaps beyond.

    But hockey in 2020-21? Highly doubtful. Colleges are fighting for survival, and hockey is item 2,343 on the list of priorities.
    Last edited by NCAA watcher; 04-21-2020, 09:34 AM.
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    • #32
      Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

      Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
      My NCAA Hockey Financials spreadsheet breaks down publicly available information for public (using NCAA financial reports) and private (using EADA reports) schools that have DI hockey programs. I breakout all the information for both the hockey programs and the overall athletic departments. If you look at the Yearly Overall tab you can see how much each school's athletic department reported in revenue and expenses and their overall and earned profit and losses. I have compiled the numbers for 2010 through 2018 and I'm just starting to work on the 2019 numbers (I don't have the latest OSU report from which numbers are reported in the above mentioned USA Today article). In general college athletics are large money drains.

      Sean
      That is an amazing spreadsheet! It looks like very few hockey programs turn a profit when institutional funding and student fees are stripped out.

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

        Originally posted by NCAA watcher View Post
        Finances are only part of the answer, albeit an important part. The larger question for colleges is whether they can even house students first semester, or if they have to remain as on-line learning. No colleges have answered that yet, and for the major ones, the push of football revenue is a piece of that analysis -- but it still pales in comparison to the broader question of having an on-campus first semester (or year). Another aspect is the liability of allowing students back on, and then having an outbreak. The bills that Congress is considering now may shield that liability somewhat. Apart from the financial liability, there is a real concern about the health and safety of the students, and if there is an outbreak, potneially pulling the plug on the semester mid semster.
        There is also the issue of whether a college can charge the same high tuition for an on-line experience. (Michigan State has already been sued for not just room and board, but also a tuition rebate. https://statenews.com/article/2020/0...nd-fee-refunds Johns-Hopkins faces the same criticism even though it provided rebates on the room and board, but not tuition). https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronav...r5m-story.html
        U.Maryland is giving some tuition rebates. This is for last semester, where everyone was caught without informed decisions. What happens for next year, where everyone goes in with their eyes open about what the college is planning to charge for online only. The cost of that "rebate" vs. the ability to charge full whack is something each college will have to make based on its own supply and demand equasion, so Harvard and BC will have a different answer than Ferris State and Merrimack.

        The BU contingency plan, which I'm sure every other school has considered, but not said out loud, is whether to push first semester to second semester, with second semester replaing summer school. That makes the most sense to buy some time without dealing with the "online" issue. There is at least a plausible chance of normalcy in January, and that way a school can earn the full tuition for two semi normal semesters.


        If colleges can even get past those core financial issues, there is the issue of minimizing risk in a "normal" on-campus environment. I'm guessing having events for 4,000 people to gather is pretty low on that list. Especially if the revenue doesn't warrant the risk. So then, do you have events for on-line games, just for the sake of entertainment? And what happens if BU starts January 1, but Maine chooses to open first semster because they're a more rural school? Are they going to re-do the schedule on the fly?

        If I'm a hockey coach, I'd expect not to play next year. We'll see them defer the kids, why waste a year at college if there are no, or minimal games? It's not that they'll get to play in the junior leagues, as those games are in jeopardy, too. I think it'll be limbo until 2021. I'm particularly attunded to these questions because I have two senior daughters (they're done with the new normal), and even they are considering a deferral for exactly these reasons, namely the on-line limits to education (they'd be in lab classes), and also the loss of the actual freshman experience. Because no colleges have publicly announced their plans/contingencies/costs, we'll be in the same limbo until August, and perhaps beyond.

        But hockey in 2020-21? Highly doubtful. Colleges are fighting for survival, and hockey is item 2,343 on the list of priorities.
        Its not only a concern for students but for the professors, staff and administration that operate schools. Barring a widely effective treatment or vaccine, I can't imagine a 65 year old physics professor at RPI wanting to wade into the viral melange of 7,500 co-eds on campus...especially when young people are known to be largely asymptomatic carriers.
        ""Ralph is the Chuck Norris of this board. Ralph doesnt sleep he just waits." - fishcore12

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        • #34
          Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

          Everyone is taking a hit...not just sports. 2020 into 2021 could be very scary...health wise and in the pocket book.

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

            Originally posted by DavidNardolillo View Post
            That is an amazing spreadsheet! It looks like very few hockey programs turn a profit when institutional funding and student fees are stripped out.
            Thanks. Some apparently don't think much of it since, as Bonin21 states, NCAA finances are "wacky." I prefer to use the old chestnut, "creative accounting," but it seems that every few years the NCAA tamps down to try and get apples-to-apples comparisons (even if it is a Granny Smith to Macintosh comparison) vs apples-to-oranges. Still Bonin21 is correct that North Dakota doesn't report the contributions required to the Fighting Hawk fund for the right to buy hockey season tickets as contributions of the hockey program, but as contributions to the general athletic program. Obviously that money should be shown under hockey and it is probably most of the just over $4 million reported for 2018 to general athletics, but UND is an outlier on how they report contributions. What can be seen is that in general athletics loses money for almost every school, but most consider them am important part of the college experience.

            Sean
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            • #36
              Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

              "Opportunities to find deeper powers within ourselves come when life seems most challenging." - Joseph Campbell.
              GO NU HOCKEY
              Always bullish on the future.
              We don't always win Hockey East or the Beanpot (#trilogy).. but when we do.. we are the Champions

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              • #37
                Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                Germany just cancelled October fest and they are managing the country response better than we are, more testing fewer deaths. They are also allowing small shops to open so there are some contradictions. Still October fest is pretty big, tremendous chance to drink beer, eat sausage and with an official license to be drunk in public. A much bigger St. Pat's Day.

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                • #38
                  Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                  Here's what conferences are considering for next season: https://www.uscho.com/2020/04/21/men...on-in-2020-21/

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                  • #39
                    Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                    Originally posted by JerryP66 View Post
                    Michigan, Ohio state, Notre Dame fund there entire athletic budget from football. If there is no football, there is no money. The Millions$ that these schools bring in will make it impossible to fund all of there remaining sports.
                    There's already been talk about pushing football to spring.

                    ----

                    My private hope is that things could get better sooner... but now that everybody wants to push back into society, understandibly, i think we're not going to be able to stop this virus any time soon. What I was hoping is they could push all of this spring's sports into the fall with college baseball starting say end of June. Sure, it'd be total havoc with some sports that share fields... lax and soccer... but it seemed plausible to me.

                    ----

                    Still a lot to happen.
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                    • #40
                      Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                      How many students — regular students, not athletes — are going to decide to take a gap year instead of dealing with all the academic uncertainty? Thus, reducing even further the revenue coming into colleges.
                      Russell Jaslow
                      [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                      U.S. College Hockey Online

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                      • #41
                        Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1



                        Already posted on the UNH board, thought I'd share.
                        Here we go 'Cats!!

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Ed Trefzger View Post
                          Here's what conferences are considering for next season: https://www.uscho.com/2020/04/21/men...on-in-2020-21/
                          The WCHA was also contacted by USCHO about its scheduling plans but declined to comment.
                          Of course.
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                          • #43
                            Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                            Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
                            Thanks. Some apparently don't think much of it since, as Bonin21 states, NCAA finances are "wacky." I prefer to use the old chestnut, "creative accounting," ....
                            Oh, I am sure we can debate some of the accounting, but you've accumulated a lot of interesting data that illuminates the general reality that college athletics are net expenses for school budgets. I fear that reality may create some difficult and painful decisions if schools cannot open for the fall semester or deal with significant matriculation declines--both of which seem to be well within the realm of possibility at this point.

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                            • #44
                              Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                              Originally posted by Russell Jaslow View Post
                              How many students — regular students, not athletes — are going to decide to take a gap year instead of dealing with all the academic uncertainty? Thus, reducing even further the revenue coming into colleges.
                              Or pay tuition/ take out loans for remote learning? I think we will see some sabbaticals and gap years taken in '20-21. This would create further distress for schools already in financial difficulty. Athletic budgets aside, it is sobering to think what could unfold in the higher ed sector this year.

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                              • #45
                                Re: Will there be hockey in the fall? Will we have to wait until after Jan 1

                                https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-l...-in-weeks.html

                                let's get smart
                                GO NU HOCKEY
                                Always bullish on the future.
                                We don't always win Hockey East or the Beanpot (#trilogy).. but when we do.. we are the Champions

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