Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

If the current low part just averages 2k/day, that's 60k this month. And if there's any decent expectation of 3k/day in June, the last half of the month will be above 2.5k.

BTW, the idea that covid is being under counted can be seen in the pneumonia deaths. Normally, it appears that just under 60k/year die from influenza AND pneumonia. Note the AND. And in the very short time that there's reporting of covid, JUST pneumonia is at 66k. So Feb 1 to May 1- 3 months, there are 66k pneumonia deaths when normally there's less than 60k of pneumonia PLUS influenza per year.

So right now, pneumonia is 3-4X what it normally is. No way those are not COVID related, since that's the only new thing this year.

We're not averaging 2K a day right now though. We're averaging ~1820 on the trailing average, and that will likely keep sinking for a week or two. Then it will take a bit to even get back up to previous levels (if they ever do. The IHME model claims they won't).

And yes, I totally agree that the official count is undercounting. Although I dunno how much of it is in the flu deaths. There was talk about this year's flu strain being exceptionally bad before COVID really got here, and if those actually were COVID cases, the case load would have exploded exponentially the way it did in the NYC metro area and Washington. We have, after all, hit 60K deaths from just the flu in a year as recently as 2017-18. And most flu deaths do occur in the first half of the year. Peak flu season generally runs from December - March. I'm trying to find death counts by month for previous flu seasons to see how clumped they are in those months.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

We're not averaging 2K a day right now though. We're averaging ~1820 on the trailing average, and that will likely keep sinking for a week or two.

Maybe. It's a complex function as it's the sum of many, many localities who are each on different places on the curve. Even if they were lock step in precautions the aggregate could keep on jumping around for a while. We are probably on the ascending side of the curve in most of them even with precautions because the disease takes time to permeate all places.

I would expect some stochastic shaking for a while and then a slow but long and lethal ascent once the re-openings start killing people.

It's entirely possible that if we do this right and let the covidiots take the hit they are begging for we will actually get meaningful electoral relief this Fall. The same warriors who want to pew pew the commie virus are the ones who get more vote excitedly for Dump et al. And they're the ones whose crazy train ends at the morgue. I could see their numbers drop by 100-200 thousand by November 3. That could flip some close states.

So by all means, Dumpies, exercise your freedumb!

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Maybe. It's a complex function as it's the sum of many, many localities who are each on different places on the curve. Even if they were lock step in precautions the aggregate could keep on jumping around for a while. We are probably on the ascending side of the curve in most of them even with precautions because the disease takes time to permeate all places.

I would expect some stochastic shaking for a while and then a slow but long and lethal ascent once the re-openings start killing people.

I think it's really underreported/underknown how long we've been in a slow but steady descent on the 7 day trailing average. The ups and downs from the day of the week reporting effect (which is significant) hides it somewhat, but it really has been on a remarkably steady down slope since April 21st, when it peaked at 2207. We've had 3 days out of the 14 since then where it did rise on a day to day basis, but in every case, it dropped lower than the original pre-rise value the next day. The 7-day trailing average actually makes a pretty convincing case that we are on a slow decline at the moment.

Obviously that can change if more hot spots spring up and other states rises overtakes the decline we're seeing in the NY metro area, but that definitively has not shown up in the data yet, and I'm not sure there's reason to believe it will until the effects of the social distancing relaxation start to be seen in 2-3 weeks. I could see it plateauing again as the descent from the NY metro area slows, but I'm not sure the circumstances in mid-late April (which corresponds to deaths now and for the next week or so) are any different from what they were in early April. I honestly wouldn't expect to see a ramp up again until late in the month.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I think it's really underreported/underknown how long we've been in a slow but steady descent on the 7 day trailing average. The ups and downs from the day of the week reporting effect (which is significant) hides it somewhat, but it really has been on a remarkably steady down slope since April 21st, when it peaked at 2207. We've had 3 days out of the 14 since then where it did rise on a day to day basis, but in every case, it dropped lower than the original pre-rise value the next day. The 7-day trailing average actually makes a pretty convincing case that we are on a slow decline at the moment.

Obviously that can change if more hot spots spring up and other states rises overtakes the decline we're seeing in the NY metro area, but that definitively has not shown up in the data yet, and I'm not sure there's reason to believe it will until the effects of the social distancing relaxation start to be seen in 2-3 weeks. I could see it plateauing again as the descent from the NY metro area slows, but I'm not sure the circumstances in mid-late April (which corresponds to deaths now and for the next week or so) are any different from what they were in early April. I honestly wouldn't expect to see a ramp up again until late in the month.

If we're guessing I think it's moving out into the sticks where they wouldn't recognize it if it gave out engraved greeting cards.

It's not an accident that the huge numbers are being thrown up among the highest concentration of great doctors and first class medical care in the country. Every apartment has cockroaches; in NYC the light got switched on.

By the end of this the states are going to rank order in deaths per capita by their rank order in percentage living in highest density conditions. It's not magic.

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

The only reason its falling is because NY is falling. You exclude them, and the rest of the country is rising. Not a lot, but still.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

The only reason its falling is because NY is falling. You exclude them, and the rest of the country is rising. Not a lot, but still.

Yes, the chart below illustrates that. And if you take out NJ and CT (in other words, NY) then the rise is a lot. It looks exactly like the first stage 45 degree angle when it's just revving up.

And these morons are about to let it loose in the red states. Well. Good.

[burd]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Except they are not sure that this is going to happen- the conveyed immunity is not a sure deal, they are not sure how long you may continue to have antibodies. The biggest variable still is where you live and the medical system available. Just like it was at the start of this thing, threads ago.

And this is target moves through mutation. I don't know how much that factor applies specific to Covid, but it sounds like that is a major concern.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Pubs in Ireland are closed until at least August 10.
Pubs.
In Ireland.

But by all means let’s open Cracker Barrel right now.

— Marc Murphy (@MurphyCartoons) May 4, 2020

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Yes, the chart below illustrates that. And if you take out NJ and CT (in other words, NY) then the rise is a lot. It looks exactly like the first stage 45 degree angle when it's just revving up.

And these morons are about to let it loose in the red states. Well. Good.

Just wait til people under 50 start dying of strokes with no prior symptoms. That’s one of the scariest things I’ve heard in this whole ordeal.

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Pubs in Ireland are closed until at least August 10.
Pubs.
In Ireland.

But by all means let’s open Cracker Barrel right now.

— Marc Murphy (@MurphyCartoons) May 4, 2020

Obviously just fear-mongering...

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Obviously just fear-mongering...

Well once George Soros and Hillary rigged that last vote to legalize abortion, you knew the rest of society would soon fall

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Obviously just fear-mongering...

They just hate Trump that much.