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COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

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  • #31
    Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

    Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
    Burd made a well reasoned argument awhile back, making this same point, and I get the idea. But I also think there is some danger in the "experts" and everyone else throwing around large numbers when everyone admits we really have no idea at all where the numbers are going to turn out to be, whether we act or not. Here's the danger. This time we tell everyone that if they don't act there will be millions that die, and even if we do act as many as a quarter million in this country will die.

    Now, what happens if some of the recent predictions turn out to be true and maybe 60,000 die? What happens the next time? Frankly, I've been pretty impressed with the response of the country in those locations where shelter in place orders have been implemented. I think a large majority have followed the orders, and most of the people out and about are the large number of "essential" workers that every state permits.

    There will be a "next time," of that everyone should be sure. How will the public respond then when Governor Walz told us that even if we do act, 20,000 Minnesotan's will die, and it turns out to be 953?

    That is my concern.
    As a lot of the governors who made the call early have said, it's better for John & Jane Q. Public to complain the gubmint overreacted when "only" a handful die, than for them to say the gubmint hung everyone out to dry after a million die. The fact they can't or refuse to comprehend basic mathematical modeling, isn't the problem of us "educated elites".

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    • #32
      Originally posted by J.D. View Post
      So predicting 1 million deaths because we would do absolutely nothing was a smart prediction? No, we aren't THAT dumb.
      I think if you look at the response of the feds so far, yes, we are THAT dumb.

      At least the state and local governments aren't completely incompetent. Yet. MAGA.
      What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

        This is the same yankee-doodle-dumbass that came out after Y2K. "What a nothingburger! So much fuss over nothing!"

        Well, yeah, because we put in millions of man-hours to fix everything from the banks to the weight transmitters on equipment that makes adhesives for Post-Its. (They still have Y2K stickers on them. )
        Code:
        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by The Rube View Post
          Movie theaters? Heck no. Hotels? Maybe (they are just like temporary apartments, you know, and there are a lot of apt buildings out there). I see how many people pass through gas stations, and yes they are essential, but do you see them wiping down everything outside (handles, keypads, etc) after every customer? Nope.
          And that's Covfefe breeding ground. Or, are you saying since they aren't wiping them down, must be ok.

          Now, open up more like you want, also not wiping down, and what do you get?
          What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

            Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
            As a lot of the governors who made the call early have said, it's better for John & Jane Q. Public to complain the gubmint overreacted when "only" a handful die, than for them to say the gubmint hung everyone out to dry after a million die. The fact they can't or refuse to comprehend basic mathematical modeling, isn't the problem of us "educated elites".
            We're getting both sides of the coin right now between competent states and the Feds...
            It's never too early to start the Pre-game festivities

            Go Cats!!! GO BLACKHAWKS!

            Cuck the Fubs... Let's Go WHITE SOX!!!

            Wildcat Born, Wildcat Bred....

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            • #36
              Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
              Burd made a well reasoned argument awhile back, making this same point, and I get the idea. But I also think there is some danger in the "experts" and everyone else throwing around large numbers when everyone admits we really have no idea at all where the numbers are going to turn out to be, whether we act or not. Here's the danger. This time we tell everyone that if they don't act there will be millions that die, and even if we do act as many as a quarter million in this country will die.

              Now, what happens if some of the recent predictions turn out to be true and maybe 60,000 die? What happens the next time? Frankly, I've been pretty impressed with the response of the country in those locations where shelter in place orders have been implemented. I think a large majority have followed the orders, and most of the people out and about are the large number of "essential" workers that every state permits.

              There will be a "next time," of that everyone should be sure. How will the public respond then when Governor Walz told us that even if we do act, 20,000 Minnesotan's will die, and it turns out to be 953?

              That is my concern.
              So. You'd rather we under-react, and more people die.

              Good to know.
              What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                Originally posted by rufus View Post
                I think if you look at the response of the feds so far, yes, we are THAT dumb.

                At least the state and local governments aren't completely incompetent. Yet. MAGA.
                Even if the red state morons didn't do anything, thankfully the big blue states did react when they did. Imagine if NYC had Mississippi's governor. The entire country would have been ****ed because one of the larges cities didn't react. That action by Cuomo saved lives across the country. Same thing with Newsom.
                Code:
                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                Originally posted by SanTropez
                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                Originally posted by Kepler
                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                  This is the same yankee-doodle-dumbass that came out after Y2K. "What a nothingburger! So much fuss over nothing!"

                  Well, yeah, because we put in millions of man-hours to fix everything from the banks to the weight transmitters on equipment that makes adhesives for Post-Its. (They still have Y2K stickers on them. )
                  Except that the Y2K bug was kicked down the road by programmers racing to ensure Y2K compliance, forgetting that some of these these systems would still be in use 20 years later.

                  I have seen modern CNC machines that are still based on Windows95, and some modern asphalt lab testing equipment still require DOT Matrix printers with serial ports.
                  “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

                  Live Radio from 100.3

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by rufus View Post
                    So. You'd rather we under-react, and more people die.

                    Good to know.
                    But he's Pro-Life, dontcha know!!
                    “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

                    Live Radio from 100.3

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                      Originally posted by The Rube View Post
                      Movie theaters? Heck no. Hotels? Maybe (they are just like temporary apartments, you know, and there are a lot of apt buildings out there). I see how many people pass through gas stations, and yes they are essential, but do you see them wiping down everything outside (handles, keypads, etc) after every customer? Nope.

                      Even Walz (MN guv) and his staff are going through sector by sector now, to see if SOME things can start operating again, even with the shutdown order.
                      I am all for them reviewing if specific industries currently deemed non-essential can receive less stringent restrictions but that's not what you advocated for when you talked about letting mom and pop restaurant open and used your own work experience as an example of putting yourself out there.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                        Even if the red state morons didn't do anything, thankfully the big blue states did react when they did. Imagine if NYC had Mississippi's governor. The entire country would have been ****ed because one of the larges cities didn't react. That action by Cuomo saved lives across the country. Same thing with Newsom.
                        De Blasio should've acted sooner than he did to cancel events and close restaurants.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                          Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                          Even if the red state morons didn't do anything, thankfully the big blue states did react when they did. Imagine if NYC had Mississippi's governor. The entire country would have been ****ed because one of the larges cities didn't react. That action by Cuomo saved lives across the country. Same thing with Newsom.
                          Let's be thankful that there were some red states that received the message. Certainly not enough, but some. I think Cuomo could have responded even faster, since he was slower than even some red states to close schools, non-essential businesses, etc., but he still responded and is clearly displaying leadership right now as New York continues to get pounded. Newsom gets an A. California is testing fewer people per 1M than literally every other state, but I hope it's because everyone has been chilling the f-ck inside since 3/16, and not because they're receiving far fewer testing materials than they need.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                            Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                            Burd made a well reasoned argument awhile back, making this same point, and I get the idea. But I also think there is some danger in the "experts" and everyone else throwing around large numbers when everyone admits we really have no idea at all where the numbers are going to turn out to be, whether we act or not. Here's the danger. This time we tell everyone that if they don't act there will be millions that die, and even if we do act as many as a quarter million in this country will die.

                            Now, what happens if some of the recent predictions turn out to be true and maybe 60,000 die? What happens the next time? Frankly, I've been pretty impressed with the response of the country in those locations where shelter in place orders have been implemented. I think a large majority have followed the orders, and most of the people out and about are the large number of "essential" workers that every state permits.

                            There will be a "next time," of that everyone should be sure. How will the public respond then when Governor Walz told us that even if we do act, 20,000 Minnesotan's will die, and it turns out to be 953?

                            That is my concern.
                            This is a good argument for not making predictions. It obviously has nothing to say about the measures adopted (and I don't think you intended it as such).

                            There is no point to announcing predicted numbers to the public anyway. For half the public there are only four numbers:

                            1 is the number of old white men in the sky who hate feminists,
                            2 is the number of beers I can drink at once,
                            3 is the number of girls I knocked up before dropping out of high school,
                            lots hurr is the number of trucks I will own in heaven.

                            One conditional on your statement, though, about worrying about what people will do next time. There is a certain personality type who if you say "you could die," and they don't, then next time they will think "when somebody says 'you could die' it's hype durrrr." Those people cannot be helped and we can't craft policy with them in mind. At some point this becomes "do not drink" on bottles of bleach. You put the warning on but Darwin's gonna claim his due.
                            Last edited by Kepler; 04-09-2020, 09:08 AM.
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                            • #44
                              Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                              This is the same yankee-doodle-dumbass that came out after Y2K. "What a nothingburger! So much fuss over nothing!"

                              Well, yeah, because we put in millions of man-hours to fix everything from the banks to the weight transmitters on equipment that makes adhesives for Post-Its. (They still have Y2K stickers on them. )
                              Smartest guy I've ever known (a housemate at Cornell) made a killing on that. He was a brilliant physicist - he would do all his homework Sunday afternoons so he could spend the rest of the week doing research and reading physics journals, and still finished the undergrad curriculum midway through junior year, then did all the classes he needed for his PhD by the time he graduated. He stayed on for the PhD in device physics, which he finished in 3 years. After that, he was a little burned out, so he took a break and did Y2K software for banks. Some of the codes were written in languages from the 70s that weren't even in use any more, but he'd teach himself and get on with it. He said he could do for a bank by himself in 2 months what a typical company would allocate 10 programmers 6 months to complete. He made well over $1M/year during 97, 98, and 99, then went rock climbing in Tahoe for a while. Not sure what he's up to now - whatever he wants to be, obviously.
                              If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

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                              • #45
                                Re: COVID-19 The 7th Part: We're Gonna Be Number One Soon!

                                What we are doing is working, so we must stop it!

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