COVID-19 - Part 2

[Darius]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

It lowers the mortality rate, cause once someone is found to have it, they are quarantined so they aren't spreading it to two or more people, who might also die from it.

Jesus, are things like this really that difficult for you efftards to understand? I guess they must be. Or else you're just playing dumb to own the libs.

Here's one for you. Why don't you get corona to own the libs?

At this point though, I'm not sure how effective increased testing might be. we missed the window for that about two months or so ago. Thanks Obama.

or this.

[rufus]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Social distancing is supposed to be the key to stop the spread. If we all social distance, there isn't a need for testing then, because it won't spread.

We have no choice but to do the social distancing now because we missed the chance to control it by testing. We couldn't test and find the hot spots when they were small and contain them then, so now they've spread throughout the country. that's why practically the entire country is shut down, cause we have no way of knowing who has it and who doesn't. Cause your hero sat on his fat orange azz for two months instead of doing anything.

Where are the 5 million tests he promised we would have in the middle of March? Still waiting.

[jflory81]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

We were testing the sickest, so they'd have a higher mortality rate. Broader testing, ideally down to asymptomatic people, would result in a lower % of positives.

I just don't think we've made it down to the next level of people yet. As far as I know in NY state (which has done the most amount of testing) you either have to be showing severe symptoms or be in known contact with someone else who's tested positive. Frankly, the amount of severely sick has probably grown faster than the increase in testing and I think they've actually made the testing guidelines stricter now than they were at the beginning of the crisis.

[Darius]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

I just don't think we've made it down to the next level of people yet. As far as I know in NY state (which has done the most amount of testing) you either have to be showing severe symptoms or be in known contact with someone else who's tested positive. Frankly, the amount of severely sick has probably grown faster than the increase in testing and I think they've actually made the testing guidelines stricter now than they were at the beginning of the crisis.

Totally. Very early on when we barely testing amidst an obvious problem, we were told during the White House Coronavirus Task Force daily briefing that once we started testing more, the % results would improve. Still waiting.

[Slap Shot]

Social distancing is supposed to be the key to stop the spread. If we all social distance, there isn't a need for testing then, because it won't spread.

But we are still testing dude. Also the social distancing is happening despite the leadership from the White House.

[dontstayathome]

But we are still testing dude. Also the social distancing is happening despite the leadership from the White House.

Oh wow. Why do u need to be tested? You are already told not to leave home and social distance. Does it matter if u tested positive right now? There is nothing they will do for you. So stop this ridiculous nonsense that everyone in the world needs to be tested.

[jflory81]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

"The Death of Expertise" personified, ladies and gentlemen.

"False models and predictions". L-O-****ing-L.

[LynahFan]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

The point brought up the primary and Republican's killing their own voters, so I directed my response to that. I know there are other things on the ballot, I just got back from voting. It was handled very well where I voted in the boonies, I could not be happier about how they set it up. That being said, they should have made it 100% absentee and moved the date back or just delayed it until July sometime and did the real thing. There's no way if I lived in Milwaukee I would have went out to vote under these conditions.

Exactly the way the GOP intended - the election was safe for rural, white, fundies like yourself, but dangerous for all those urban darkies in Milwaukee. Gee, that couldn't possibly skew the election results unfairly one way or the other, could it?

GOP blatantly stole this election, resetting the clock on when the Conservative Cult judges will be off the bench and perpetrating another round of blatantly gerrymandered voting districts.

[dontstayathome]

"The Death of Expertise" personified, ladies and gentlemen.

"False models and predictions". L-O-****ing-L.

April 5th New York. Projected ICU beds 12,346. Projected beds needed 69175.

Current ICU beds 4376. Beds in use 16,479.

These are stats from the model based in New York. A fact. 4x off on the data predictions. Why do you think Cuomo retracted his desperate need for more ventilators? Because they have over predicted by such massive numbers. You won’t hear about this on CNN. I’m sorry to fact check you, but yes it’s true. The models are way way way high. That’s why they re did the numbers yesterday. It’s a good thing. Don’t be so sad

[dontstayathome]

Exactly the way the GOP intended - the election was safe for rural, white, fundies like yourself, but dangerous for all those urban darkies in Milwaukee. Gee, that couldn't possibly skew the election results unfairly one way or the other, could it?

GOP blatantly stole this election, resetting the clock on when the Conservative Cult judges will be off the bench and perpetrating another round of blatantly gerrymandered voting districts.

Hold on. I’m still looking. I have this card somewhere in my wallet. It’s the excuse card. My ism card.

[jflory81]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

April 5th New York. Projected ICU beds 12,346. Projected beds needed 69175.

Current ICU beds 4376. Beds in use 16,479.

These are stats from the model based in New York. A fact. 4x off on the data predictions. Why do you think Cuomo retracted his desperate need for more ventilators? Because they have over predicted by such massive numbers. You won’t hear about this on CNN. I’m sorry to fact check you, but yes it’s true. The models are way way way high. That’s why they re did the numbers yesterday. It’s a good thing. Don’t be so sad

Most people provide links when they're fact checking.

Either way, even if accurate, here's some required reading for you: https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...-right/609271/


TL;DR version: Worst cases in models rarely become true, because even beyond the statistical nature of "worst cases", when people see the worst cases, they act to prevent them (social distancing, closures of schools/businesses). Yet governments at all levels need to be prepared for the possibility that the worst cases come true.

EDIT: And trust me, I wouldn't be sad if the virus up and went away tomorrow. I would be thrilled. In addition to the lockdown then ending in the next couple of weeks, I have multiple friends who work in hospitals, one who's floor was an overflow COVID floor and is now in the process of being converted to that. So next time she goes in, she will be working on a floor with COVID patients. The crap that your spouting, if believed and acted on by even 10-20% of the population makes her significantly less safe, as well as the rest of the health care workers who are doing yeoman's work in multiple cities right now. So no, I don't have patience for your stupidity.

[dontstayathome]

Most people provide links when they're fact checking.

Either way, even if accurate, here's some required reading for you: https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...-right/609271/


TL;DR version: Worst cases in models rarely become true, because even beyond the statistical nature of "worst cases", when people see the worst cases, they act to prevent them (social distancing, closures of schools/businesses). Yet governments at all levels need to be prepared for the possibility that the worst cases come true.

EDIT: And trust me, I wouldn't be sad if the virus up and went away tomorrow. I would be thrilled. In addition to the lockdown then ending in the next couple of weeks, I have multiple friends who work in hospitals, one who's floor was an overflow COVID floor and is now in the process of being converted to that. So next time she goes in, she will be working on a floor with COVID patients. The crap that your spouting, if believed and acted on by even 10-20% of the population makes her significantly less safe, as well as the rest of the health care workers who are doing yeoman's work in multiple cities right now. So no, I don't have patience for your stupidity.

I guess u have no time for my stupidity, but let me enlighten you anyway. IM not sure how to link my articles. So I just posted em. Sorry. Secondly, I thumbed through the article you posted that is the same as every other liberal link. Thirdly, you are correct. Most the time, worst case scenario doesn’t usually occur. Also, as I posted. And u can look up why they are changing the goal posts, the models predictions will fall far short. In my opinion based on the statistics vs the models. The numbers just don’t come close to the expectations. I do agree we should be prepared for the worst. Of course we want to save lives and limit deaths.
Here is my last question. And it might be offensive. But please don’t take it that way.
What makes ur nurse/doctor friends job essential? There is no human right to health care. Your friends choose to go into work and help sick people. Nurses/doctors are the greatest providers in the world. My best friend is the head of nursing at his hospital. He understands his risks. He chooses to provide care. At anytime he could leave work. It’s up to him. The govt can’t force health care. That is exactly why it’s impossible to have healthcare mandated country wide. A person cannot be forced to provide health care.
I feel your friends. I feel for mine. I’m mandated as essential as well. I work with people I would much rather avoid, but I am considered essential. I risk my health daily. Do I have a choice? Of course I do. Do nurses have a choice? Of course. But what choices do I and ur friends have when our mortgage payments come in? Our taxes? We don’t get to skip payments.
So why should it be that the governor of your state gets to decide if your work is essential. Are u telling me a waitress is non essential? What about when she misses three house payments on her house and vehicle ? Are u willing to tell her/him that they are non essential? I assure u they are essential. To their own life and liberty. Can u for once imagine the people who are losing everything they ever worked for being told they are not essential. And you have these ******* celebs posting videos singing imagine. While these poor souls are going Broke. Imaging living in shelters. Begging for bread. Asking for a bed. With three starving children at their side.
There is a point where yes we have to go back to work. We all know that the majority of people dying from the Chinese virus are old and weak. We obviously hate seeing our loved ones die. But. At what point do we need to understand the common decency of providing for them who are willing to work. It’s u fair to hold a country hostage for a minor amount of deaths of weak people. We love all our Americans whether you are old young black white healthy or sick. We should do our best to protect people from illness but still we have to consider the future of our country.

[net presence]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Don't any of you folks have jobs?!?

Saw this one a few moments ago on-line, satire but SO close to the truth … fits so many on here …

https://babylonbee.com/news/liberal-...rump-is-stupid

Not at the moment. The hockey season is over. So, lot's of time to push back against inaccurate information on a college hockey message board

[net presence]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Very well stated.

[net presence]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

You seem to be confused about a number of things about the modeling and what Darius is trying to say.

First of all, the current projection that was updated to around 80K deaths assumes full social distancing is enacted everywhere and continues through August. I personally think it's going to be higher than that, because I don't think, even where enacted, that the social distancing has been fully embraced. There are still tons of companies deemed "essential" that require people to congregate and travel. Certainly better than no social distancing at all (obviously), but not the full distancing their models presume - and let's be clear, early models badly underestimated the spread of the virus in this country.

Anyway, there are still models showing that if we did nothing and continued life as usual that around 30-50% of the population would eventually be infected. There are also studies around that try to estimate what the actual death rate is, including asymptomatic carriers. They estimated that around 0.7% of the people who contracted COVID, whether or not they showed symptoms, would die given adequate health care. 330M (US population) * 0.3 (low end of the % of number of people who would have gotten it) * .007 (best estimation of the true death rate) = 700K deaths if we did nothing to counteract the spread and the death rate remained steady. However, at that infection rate, we know that the level of care would drop severely and that the true death rate would rise, possibly to 3 or 4 times what it is under good health care (judging by what's happened in developed European countries and seems to be beginning in NYC). That's where the 2-3 million comes from.

As I said yesterday. Anyone who at any point who has tried to peddle this bull**** "it's just the flu" or "we should just let everybody get infected for herd immunity" has no ****ing idea what they are talking about and would be doing the world a favor by removing themselves from the conversation as quickly as possible. Millions of deaths was easily a realistic outcome if we did nothing. Thankfully we had college and professional sports leagues willing to pull the plug on multi-million dollar tournaments and seasons and actually alert the public that this strain of COVID was not normal, all while the president was still poo-pooing the danger COVID presented.

EDIT: And you're already behind on the national peak. We're going to approach 1800 today. And I've seen no one try to claim we're at or even near the national peak. New York is approaching it's peak in the next couple of days (again, I doubt the peak for deaths will be tomorrow; it's a trailing indicator), but there are plenty of other hot spots such as Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, and seemingly most of the rest of the northeast that can easily rise up and continue the national rise.

EDIT 2: And I see you've just joined this week for the purpose of posting in this thread. What a ********* of a username you've chosen. I sincerely hope nobody you care about gets sick because of your hideously misinformed advice. To say nothing of the health workers who are put more at risk for every ******* who decides he/she is smarter than the scientists and goes out in public during this time.

Very well stated...