COVID-19 - Part 2

[Darius]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

https://t.co/4AOgVG3ekh?amp=1

383,256 infected, 12,021 dead = 3.14% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/7/20 2:25:55 PM.
364,723 infected, 10,781 dead = 2.96% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/6/20 ?:??:?? PM.
337,072 infected, 9,619 dead = 2.85% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/5/20 7:13:44 PM.
308,850 infected, 8,476 dead = 2.74% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/4/20 8:51:28 PM.
244,678 infected, 5,911 dead = 2.42% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/2/20 8:42:13 PM.
203,608 infected, 4,476 dead = 2.2% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/1/20 2:20:57 PM.
177,452 infected, 3,440 dead = 1.94% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/31/20 2:38:01 PM.
156,931 infected, 2,880 dead = 1.84% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/30/20 3:11:53 PM.
124,763 infected, 2,191 dead = 1.76% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/29/20 10:03:59 AM.
105,470 infected, 1,710 dead = 1.62% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/28/20 11:12:24 AM.
86,012 infected, 1,301 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/27/20 11:13:47 AM.
80,021 infected, 1,136 dead = 1.42% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/26/20 4:29:16 PM.
69,197 infected, 1,046 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/26/20 7:29:49 AM.
62,086 infected, 869 dead = 1.4% Johns Hopkins data as of 3/25/20 3:26:24 PM.

US population = 330,000,000, projected infections 70,000,000 - 150,000,000 = 2,198,000 - 4,710,000 deaths at 3.14%.
CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been 23,000 – 59,000 US flu deaths.

I first posted this in response to "It's the flu" comments. I understand all of what is wrong with the above numbers, don't remind me. Or do.

[e.cat]

383,256 infected, 12,021 dead = 3.14% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/7/20 2:25:55 PM.
364,723 infected, 10,781 dead = 2.96% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/6/20 ?:??:?? PM.
337,072 infected, 9,619 dead = 2.85% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/5/20 7:13:44 PM.
308,850 infected, 8,476 dead = 2.74% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/4/20 8:51:28 PM.
244,678 infected, 5,911 dead = 2.42% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/2/20 8:42:13 PM.
203,608 infected, 4,476 dead = 2.2% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/1/20 2:20:57 PM.
177,452 infected, 3,440 dead = 1.94% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/31/20 2:38:01 PM.
156,931 infected, 2,880 dead = 1.84% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/30/20 3:11:53 PM.
124,763 infected, 2,191 dead = 1.76% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/29/20 10:03:59 AM.
105,470 infected, 1,710 dead = 1.62% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/28/20 11:12:24 AM.
86,012 infected, 1,301 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/27/20 11:13:47 AM.
80,021 infected, 1,136 dead = 1.42% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/26/20 4:29:16 PM.
69,197 infected, 1,046 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/26/20 7:29:49 AM.
62,086 infected, 869 dead = 1.4% Johns Hopkins data as of 3/25/20 3:26:24 PM.

US population = 330,000,000, projected infections 70,000,000 - 150,000,000 = 2,198,000 - 4,710,000 deaths at 3.14%.
CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been 23,000 – 59,000 US flu deaths.

I first posted this in response to "It's the flu" comments. I understand all of what is wrong with the above numbers, don't remind me. Or do.

Figures don't lie but liars figure Darius
Not calling you a liar. You're just the messenger. A good one at that

[dontstayathome]

383,256 infected, 12,021 dead = 3.14% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/7/20 2:25:55 PM.
364,723 infected, 10,781 dead = 2.96% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/6/20 ?:??:?? PM.
337,072 infected, 9,619 dead = 2.85% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/5/20 7:13:44 PM.
308,850 infected, 8,476 dead = 2.74% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/4/20 8:51:28 PM.
244,678 infected, 5,911 dead = 2.42% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/2/20 8:42:13 PM.
203,608 infected, 4,476 dead = 2.2% Johns Hopkins data as of: 4/1/20 2:20:57 PM.
177,452 infected, 3,440 dead = 1.94% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/31/20 2:38:01 PM.
156,931 infected, 2,880 dead = 1.84% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/30/20 3:11:53 PM.
124,763 infected, 2,191 dead = 1.76% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/29/20 10:03:59 AM.
105,470 infected, 1,710 dead = 1.62% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/28/20 11:12:24 AM.
86,012 infected, 1,301 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/27/20 11:13:47 AM.
80,021 infected, 1,136 dead = 1.42% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/26/20 4:29:16 PM.
69,197 infected, 1,046 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/26/20 7:29:49 AM.
62,086 infected, 869 dead = 1.4% Johns Hopkins data as of 3/25/20 3:26:24 PM.

US population = 330,000,000, projected infections 70,000,000 - 150,000,000 = 2,198,000 - 4,710,000 deaths at 3.14%.
CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been 23,000 – 59,000 US flu deaths.

I first posted this in response to "It's the flu" comments. I understand all of what is wrong with the above numbers, don't remind me. Or do.

You’re posting percentage based on infected. Not what I stated. Also, the 2-4 million is outrageously inflated.
The early models for projected cases/deaths were 4x higher than reality. That’s why they adjusted the models yesterday.
We’re talking 1100-1500 deaths right now at the supposed peak. Do you really believe them numbers will hold steady for 2000 days?
That would be on the conservative end of the number deaths you just posted.

[net presence]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

I don't think you've been paying close attention here netpresence. Lefties have been name calling or worse on this thread incessantly! Not you of course. You're above the fray.

ecat, you are correct that some of my "teammates" occasionally indulge in that type of behavior and I should've mentioned that in my post. Still, I also don't feel its anywhere close to a 50/50 split. Is it 90/10 or 80/20 of "righties" vs "lefties" doing it? No. But it its probably 60/40 or 65/35. In my opinion? Yes, I think it is. Heck, we don't have to look any further than dontstayathome's first few posts today for an example. He comes right out of the gate being overtly confrontational. To close, I just believe that we need to disagree/debate the information as respectfully as we can if we're ever going to truly move forward.

[jflory81]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

You’re posting percentage based on infected. Not what I stated. Also, the 2-4 million is outrageously inflated.
The early models for projected cases/deaths were 4x higher than reality. That’s why they adjusted the models yesterday.
We’re talking 1100-1500 deaths right now at the supposed peak. Do you really believe them numbers will hold steady for 2000 days?
That would be on the conservative end of the number deaths you just posted.

You seem to be confused about a number of things about the modeling and what Darius is trying to say.

First of all, the current projection that was updated to around 80K deaths assumes full social distancing is enacted everywhere and continues through August. I personally think it's going to be higher than that, because I don't think, even where enacted, that the social distancing has been fully embraced. There are still tons of companies deemed "essential" that require people to congregate and travel. Certainly better than no social distancing at all (obviously), but not the full distancing their models presume - and let's be clear, early models badly underestimated the spread of the virus in this country.

Anyway, there are still models showing that if we did nothing and continued life as usual that around 30-50% of the population would eventually be infected. There are also studies around that try to estimate what the actual death rate is, including asymptomatic carriers. They estimated that around 0.7% of the people who contracted COVID, whether or not they showed symptoms, would die given adequate health care. 330M (US population) * 0.3 (low end of the % of number of people who would have gotten it) * .007 (best estimation of the true death rate) = 700K deaths if we did nothing to counteract the spread and the death rate remained steady. However, at that infection rate, we know that the level of care would drop severely and that the true death rate would rise, possibly to 3 or 4 times what it is under good health care (judging by what's happened in developed European countries and seems to be beginning in NYC). That's where the 2-3 million comes from.

As I said yesterday. Anyone who at any point who has tried to peddle this bull**** "it's just the flu" or "we should just let everybody get infected for herd immunity" has no ****ing idea what they are talking about and would be doing the world a favor by removing themselves from the conversation as quickly as possible. Millions of deaths was easily a realistic outcome if we did nothing. Thankfully we had college and professional sports leagues willing to pull the plug on multi-million dollar tournaments and seasons and actually alert the public that this strain of COVID was not normal, all while the president was still poo-pooing the danger COVID presented.

EDIT: And you're already behind on the national peak. We're going to approach 1800 today. And I've seen no one try to claim we're at or even near the national peak. New York is approaching it's peak in the next couple of days (again, I doubt the peak for deaths will be tomorrow; it's a trailing indicator), but there are plenty of other hot spots such as Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, and seemingly most of the rest of the northeast that can easily rise up and continue the national rise.

EDIT 2: And I see you've just joined this week for the purpose of posting in this thread. What a ********* of a username you've chosen. I sincerely hope nobody you care about gets sick because of your hideously misinformed advice. To say nothing of the health workers who are put more at risk for every ******* who decides he/she is smarter than the scientists and goes out in public during this time.

[Darius]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

The interesting thing to me and yes I know the rate of increase varies day to day, but the mortality rate continues to increase. Two weeks ago I figured it would have been decreasing rapidly because of increased testing. The Drs. keep saying we are in for a rough two weeks.

[Darius]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

You’re posting percentage based on infected. Not what I stated. Also, the 2-4 million is outrageously inflated.
The early models for projected cases/deaths were 4x higher than reality. That’s why they adjusted the models yesterday.
We’re talking 1100-1500 deaths right now at the supposed peak. Do you really believe them numbers will hold steady for 2000 days?
That would be on the conservative end of the number deaths you just posted.

I didn't respond to what you stated. What did you state?

[jflory81]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

The interesting thing to me and yes I know the rate of increase varies day to day, but the mortality rate continues to increase. Two weeks ago I figured it would have been decreasing rapidly because of increased testing. The Drs. keep saying we are in for a rough two weeks.

It's partly because deaths come about 2 weeks after symptoms start showing in most cases. In a perfect world where we caught every case as soon as symptoms started to show, deaths and death rate would actually remain at or very close to 0 for about a week and a half as cases piled up, and then the deaths catch up at the end as new cases dwindle away. That's why even if NYC has hit or is a day or so away from the peak of the infections, deaths will likely continue to rise or at least stay the same for the next week to 10 days.

The scary numbers are in Western Europe, where this whole process started a couple weeks before ours. We're talking about developed Western European countries (multiple!) with reported death rates >10% and Spain and France will likely join them in the next day or two. Italy in particular has tested double per capita of what the US has (theoretically catching more minor cases), and their death rate is still at 12.6%. An older population on average only explains so much.

[Darius]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Another thing I find interesting is that hypothetically, if EVERYONE stayed 100% home 2 weeks ago and no one entered the country this would be essentially over.

[Whalers]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

So, since Dimwit Donnie says Obama did such a ****ty job with H1N1, with ~12,000 deaths for the year, and all you acolytes just eat that **** right up, what kind of job has Dimwit Donnie done with the same number of deaths in just a month?

Just saw in the mirror that your post name is sufur, and that is what all of us are doing when we read your drivel. The H1N1 totals did not OCCUR over the year, but 2 - 2-1/2 months. First reported in Mid April 2009 and over by mid to late june. The WUHAN Virus cases in the US started in mid to late February so we are almost 7 weeks in. Dont let selective usage of dates skew your figures.

Can I ask what did you do during the lockdown for the H1N1 outbreak? Was your business deemed essential or did you have to work from home while the kids remote schooled during the state quarantines? I remember the hysteria of the time as depicted on the chilling CNN and MSNBC reports. Was it Wolf Blitzer who kept hitting Barry with all of those "why werent you better prepared gothcas"?

[Chuck Murray]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Don't any of you folks have jobs?!?

Saw this one a few moments ago on-line, satire but SO close to the truth … fits so many on here …

https://babylonbee.com/news/liberal-...rump-is-stupid

[jflory81]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Just saw in the mirror that your post name is sufur, and that is what all of us are doing when we read your drivel. The H1N1 totals did not OCCUR over the year, but 2 - 2-1/2 months. First reported in Mid April 2009 and over by mid to late june. The WUHAN Virus cases in the US started in mid to late February so we are almost 7 weeks in. Dont let selective usage of dates skew your figures.

Can I ask what did you do during the lockdown for the H1N1 outbreak? Was your business deemed essential or did you have to work from home while the kids remote schooled during the state quarantines? I remember the hysteria of the time as depicted on the chilling CNN and MSNBC reports. Was it Wolf Blitzer who kept hitting Barry with all of those "why werent you better prepared gothcas"?

Think about what you just posted for a second. There were no lockdowns or overly special considerations made for H1N1, and the number of deaths from it over 10-12 weeks will STILL be less than two weeks of COVID-19 at it's peak with social distancing and all kinds of businesses shut down and stay at home orders issued. Conservative, best-case estimates of the death toll of COVID-19 is still predicted to be between 6-7 times as deadly as H1N1 with all the aforementioned restrictions in place.

[rufus]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

The interesting thing to me and yes I know the rate of increase varies day to day, but the mortality rate continues to increase. Two weeks ago I figured it would have been decreasing rapidly because of increased testing. The Drs. keep saying we are in for a rough two weeks.

What increased testing?

[rufus]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Just saw in the mirror that your post name is sufur, and that is what all of us are doing when we read your drivel. The H1N1 totals did not OCCUR over the year, but 2 - 2-1/2 months. First reported in Mid April 2009 and over by mid to late june. The WUHAN Virus cases in the US started in mid to late February so we are almost 7 weeks in. Dont let selective usage of dates skew your figures.

Can I ask what did you do during the lockdown for the H1N1 outbreak? Was your business deemed essential or did you have to work from home while the kids remote schooled during the state quarantines? I remember the hysteria of the time as depicted on the chilling CNN and MSNBC reports. Was it Wolf Blitzer who kept hitting Barry with all of those "why werent you better prepared gothcas"?

Oh, the stupid, it burns. I will admit my stupid, I said 2012 instead of 2009.

let's see what the CDC says.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimate...l_March_13.htm

CDC estimates that between about 8,720 and 18,050 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April 2009 and March 13, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 12,270 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

From April to October. Not June, but October. That would be four months for the stupid out there. Yeah, I'm referring to you, Whalers. Oh what a sad username.

CDC estimated that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range was about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

Also, for the mouth-breathers out there(yes, you again, Whalers), the first death in the US from Covfefe-19 was on Feb. 29. So ok, you got me, it took five weeks for Dumpie's death toll to reach the 12,000 mark. My bad.

11 more months of this to go. Might get ugly.

[rufus]

Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Don't any of you folks have jobs?!?

Saw this one a few moments ago on-line, satire but SO close to the truth … fits so many on here …

https://babylonbee.com/news/liberal-...rump-is-stupid

A lot don't, cause your idol destroyed the economy with his ineptness.