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COVID-19 - Part 2

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  • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

    3/25 - 3/27 - mortality in the 1.4% - 1.5% range.
    3/28 - 1.6%.
    Today - 1.76%.

    The recovered numbers were almost negligible, but are now increasing.

    Since the beginning, health experts have preached social distancing and more testing. Current testing is skewed towards the sick so the test results are essentially:
    1. Sick with Covid-19
    2. Sick with something else

    Dr. Fauci spoke last night about the need to do LOTS more testing, inferring that we don't have the data we need until we sample the slightly ill and those not showing signs of illness. I'd like to think that if we could magically test every US citizen, the infection rate would rise, the mortality rate plummet. The increasing mortality rate indicates we are not yet testing enough and not yet seeing the benefit of social distancing.
    Last edited by Darius; 03-29-2020, 10:39 AM.
    I will not be out cheered in my own building.

    Comment


    • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

      Dean Kamen's company is fighting the coronavirus on many fronts:
      https://www.unionleader.com/news/hea...lock_id=883785

      ... his employees in China who had found a manufacturer there that could make medical masks, gowns and other supplies... pallet of medical items is expected to arrive in Manchester from China on Sunday...

      “It’s discouraging for me to see that at a time like this, there are some people that are trying to inappropriately benefit from what’s going on. I’m just proud that everybody at DEKA seems to be totally focused on: How can we do more, do it more quickly, and help people?

      “They know how much the world, and certainly the state and the country, are depending on us.”

      Kamen hopes the crisis will remind people of what’s really important “and that we should be investing in long-term solutions.”

      As a child, when he read the story of the three little pigs, Kamen said, “I always wanted to be the one that built the brick house.”

      Now, he said, “I have a whole Millyard full of brick buildings.

      “I’ve just always believed you’re better off preparing for the future than trying to react in a crisis.”
      Last edited by Darius; 03-29-2020, 10:37 AM.
      I will not be out cheered in my own building.

      Comment


      • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

        Originally posted by Darius View Post
        Dr. Fauci spoke last night about the need to do LOTS more testing, inferring that we don't have the data we need until we sample the slightly ill and those not showing signs of illness. I'd like to think that if we could magically test every US citizen, the infection rate would rise, the mortality rate plummet. The increasing mortality rate indicates we are not yet testing enough and not yet seeing the benefit of social distancing.
        Correct and correct.
        Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
        Montreal Expos Forever ...

        Comment


        • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

          Big fan of Dean Kamen - even if Segway doesn't catch on until DK has left us better than he found us.
          Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
          Montreal Expos Forever ...

          Comment


          • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

            Originally posted by Darius View Post
            3/25 - 3/27 - mortality in the 1.4% - 1.5% range.
            3/28 - 1.6%.
            Today - 1.76%.

            The recovered numbers were almost negligible, but are now increasing.

            Since the beginning, health experts have preached social distancing and more testing. Current testing is skewed towards the sick so the test results are essentially:
            1. Sick with Covid-19
            2. Sick with something else

            Dr. Fauci spoke last night about the need to do LOTS more testing, inferring that we don't have the data we need until we sample the slightly ill and those not showing signs of illness. I'd like to think that if we could magically test every US citizen, the infection rate would rise, the mortality rate plummet. The increasing mortality rate indicates we are not yet testing enough and not yet seeing the benefit of social distancing.
            Uber correct.
            I will not be out cheered in my own building.

            Comment


            • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

              Originally posted by Darius View Post
              3/25 - 3/27 - mortality in the 1.4% - 1.5% range.
              3/28 - 1.6%.
              Today - 1.76%.

              The recovered numbers were almost negligible, but are now increasing.

              Since the beginning, health experts have preached social distancing and more testing. Current testing is skewed towards the sick so the test results are essentially:
              1. Sick with Covid-19
              2. Sick with something else

              Dr. Fauci spoke last night about the need to do LOTS more testing, inferring that we don't have the data we need until we sample the slightly ill and those not showing signs of illness. I'd like to think that if we could magically test every US citizen, the infection rate would rise, the mortality rate plummet. The increasing mortality rate indicates we are not yest testing enough and not yet seeing the benefit of social distancing
              .
              Well exactly on point. Speaking of that, near me there is a small climb called "Mt. Major" and it's been PACKED with cars every single weekend...even more so now. The summit and the climb itself, esp with large crowds, can be quite 'crowded'. LOts of complaints on facebook pages about this (and eek, so many MA and New York cars in that parking lot ) Today NH gov Sununu asked that if you are coming up to stay from these states for a prolonged period of time to self q...good luck with that?

              Anyway...on your Dean K post, my husband is the head of our high school USFirst Robotics team, so I've been fortunate to have toured his home over the years as he opens it up for mentors right before 'build season'. Interesting guy, and nice to see him jump in. Hopefully we won't need extra space for the sick, but, if people don't adhere to the SD edicts (yeah, even those hikers as mentioned above) who knows?
              Here we go 'Cats!!

              Comment


              • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                Big fan of Dean Kamen - even if Segway doesn't catch on until DK has left us better than he found us.
                Chuck, he's quite the guy; having heard him speak many times at US First Robotics gigs (and at his home as mentioned). He's got tons of portraits of himself, and, 'wicked smart' guys like Einstein he's painted himself throughout his home. Not every day you walk into someone's house and they have a massive steam engine in the foyer... He has this massive hanger for his helis attached to his home; that's where the receptions are held. He invites some of his "close friends" namely, the US dept of patents, one year Henry K was there (not kidding), and of course, many of MY PERSONAL faves like Senator Jeanne Shaheen (whom I've spoken to teacher to teacher at these events) Eccentric as heck, he's a great visionary.

                Speaking of segway...hubby and I took at trip to Gettysburg a few years back (have been back since) and we did a segway tour of the battlefield. It was in April so there was just us and the tour guide...amazing to see it from that vantage point; highly recommended if you want a unique experience with the segway.
                Here we go 'Cats!!

                Comment


                • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                  Originally posted by Darius View Post
                  3/25 - 3/27 - mortality in the 1.4% - 1.5% range.
                  3/28 - 1.6%.
                  Today - 1.76%.

                  The recovered numbers were almost negligible, but are now increasing.

                  Since the beginning, health experts have preached social distancing and more testing. Current testing is skewed towards the sick so the test results are essentially:
                  1. Sick with Covid-19
                  2. Sick with something else

                  Dr. Fauci spoke last night about the need to do LOTS more testing, inferring that we don't have the data we need until we sample the slightly ill and those not showing signs of illness. I'd like to think that if we could magically test every US citizen, the infection rate would rise, the mortality rate plummet. The increasing mortality rate indicates we are not yet testing enough and not yet seeing the benefit of social distancing.
                  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...st/2932766001/ Probably take forever to roll it out but
                  I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                  Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

                  Comment


                  • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                    Supplement to Post #269 on the issue of apportioning blame … let's not forget the WHO, who seem determined to continue to act as lapdogs for the Communist Chinese, even now …

                    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethba...iwan-n2565899?

                    Taiwanese health officials alerted WHO about the Wuhan coronavirus' transmission between humans back in December but the organization failed to alert countries around the world.

                    And, on top of it all, China was generous enough to send faulty Wuhan coronavirus testing kits to the Czech Republic. Out of the hundreds of thousands of tests that were administered, roughly 80 percent provided inaccurate results.

                    The WHO dug their public relations crisis even deeper into the ground when Bruce Alyward, the Senior Advisor to Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, refused to talk about Taiwan during an interview with RTHK. In fact, Alyward pretended the Skype call froze. Then he said he wanted to move on to a different question since China had already been discussed. When the reporter pressed him about Taiwan again, he hung up the call.


                    Makes you wonder why the embedded video hasn't gotten wider distribution ...
                    Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                    Montreal Expos Forever ...

                    Comment


                    • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                      Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                      Correct and correct.
                      It's the only way, unless people totally guy in 100% on social distancing. Hoping that rapid test I'm hearing about can be put out and utilized. Separate the infected...high risk individuals...a tall order but, if we want to really get through this sooner than later, I honestly don't know how? Gee, you and I agree on something here Chuck...
                      Here we go 'Cats!!

                      Comment


                      • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                        Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                        Supplement to Post #269 on the issue of apportioning blame … let's not forget the WHO, who seem determined to continue to act as lapdogs for the Communist Chinese, even now …

                        https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethba...iwan-n2565899?

                        Taiwanese health officials alerted WHO about the Wuhan coronavirus' transmission between humans back in December but the organization failed to alert countries around the world.

                        And, on top of it all, China was generous enough to send faulty Wuhan coronavirus testing kits to the Czech Republic. Out of the hundreds of thousands of tests that were administered, roughly 80 percent provided inaccurate results.

                        The WHO dug their public relations crisis even deeper into the ground when Bruce Alyward, the Senior Advisor to Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, refused to talk about Taiwan during an interview with RTHK. In fact, Alyward pretended the Skype call froze. Then he said he wanted to move on to a different question since China had already been discussed. When the reporter pressed him about Taiwan again, he hung up the call.


                        Makes you wonder why the embedded video hasn't gotten wider distribution ...
                        What a debacle this whole thing is...I don't pretend to have read/heard every single thing about China's obvious role in all of this, and, we must deal with it as it is now. Not saying I have 'abandoned' my leftist talking points about a few things either...that said, this will be an amazing thing to look back on in the years to come, and I hope, this spurs needed change on many fronts...
                        Here we go 'Cats!!

                        Comment


                        • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/confi...123550415.html

                          “The numbers are almost meaningless,” says Steve Goodman, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University. There’s a huge reservoir of people who have mild cases, and would not likely seek testing, he says. The rate of increase in positive results reflects a mixed-up combination of increased testing rates and the spread of the virus ... We will need more complete data, smarter data and more coordinated data to communicate something meaningful about the extent of Covid-19 in the United States, how many people are likely to die, which hospitals are likely to be swamped and whether drastic changes in the way Americans live will start to slow down the spread of the virus ...

                          "With a population of 1.5 billion people, China’s some 80,000 cases look like a rounding error", says Nigam Shah, an assistant professor of biomedical statistics at Stanford. And India’s claim of some 754 cases probably reflects a severe lack of tests — not that the disease there is still so rare. The positive tests say little about how many people are dying or will die since most cases are mild. Some other useful data could easily be collected at testing sites. "As doctors Farzad Mostashari and Ezekiel Emanuel pointed out last week in STATnews, health departments should tally not just positives but total tests, and record demographic and symptom information on all the test takers. Much of that isn’t collected or coordinated."

                          IMO we need USA longitudinal data:

                          The % false-positive/negative of the current coronavirus tests in the USA. ? Do we have rock solid tests?
                          People who have had coronavirus in the past but no longer have it. These people showed little to no symptoms in the past and who have built up antibodies. We need to know who these people are.
                          People who have been tested for coronavirus but found to be negative (10X)
                          People who have been tested for coronavirus and found to be positive (X)
                          People who were tested positive but recovering without ICU/Hospitalization. ?
                          People who were tested positive and have needed to be hospitalized. ?
                          People who have tested positive and died (.02X)

                          I don't see how we can create a decent model missing so much information.
                          DUTCHMEN HOCKEY
                          DANGER - MEN AT WORK

                          Comment


                          • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                            Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
                            Chuck, he's quite the guy; having heard him speak many times at US First Robotics gigs (and at his home as mentioned). He's got tons of portraits of himself, and, 'wicked smart' guys like Einstein he's painted himself throughout his home. Not every day you walk into someone's house and they have a massive steam engine in the foyer... He has this massive hanger for his helis attached to his home; that's where the receptions are held. He invites some of his "close friends" namely, the US dept of patents, one year Henry K was there (not kidding), and of course, many of MY PERSONAL faves like Senator Jeanne Shaheen (whom I've spoken to teacher to teacher at these events) Eccentric as heck, he's a great visionary.
                            Not necessarily related to Kamen, but definitely related to your fave Senator (the one who doesn't live in Effingwoods BTW ) as noted above, and perhaps of general interest to the long-time USCHO readers … but once upon a time, when the kids were just kids, we enjoyed a private impromptu tour of then-Governor Shaheen's office, courtesy of a once well-known UNH poster who also happened to be one of the higher-ups in her campaign, and had a job in her administration afterwards. Not naming names, and for sure this former poster and myself were NOT on the same page politically … but we had a ton of fun on here together for the UNH cause, in those days when there was actually a legit debate between UNH and BC posters about which program was best.

                            He's since moved on to other Dem campaigns and candidates in other states, and I kind of keep track in a loose way on how he's doing, and where he's doing it - like you do with friends who've moved away. I have no idea (but I harbor some suspicions) as to whether he's ever come back to visit here under another name. IIRC he's a UNH alum, so I'm sure he's as distressed about the program's slide as most of us, and that's probably made him stepping back from prior activity levels easier. Heck - there were a few years in the late aughts/early teens where I was so busy with other things that I rarely posted here. It's not that I stopped caring, stopped seeing games, watching others, following on the radio or Internet, etc. It's just that other things tended to fill the void. And things that once were fun and seemed important (UNH vs. BC) were settled stories, with nothing really left to debate.

                            But he was (and I'm sure he still is) a great guy who was a wonderful friend in the real world, and a terrific ally to have on your "side" on this board. On a lot of the issues we're debating on this thread, my guess is he'd be more closely aligned with Darius, 'Watcher and yourself, HR. He'd be on here giving it to me with both barrels. But afterwards, we'd still be friends and he'd be as welcome in my home as we were in his boss' office that day over 20 years ago.

                            Isn't that the way it should be?
                            Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                            Montreal Expos Forever ...

                            Comment


                            • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                              Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                              Not necessarily related to Kamen, but definitely related to your fave Senator (the one who doesn't live in Effingwoods BTW ) as noted above, and perhaps of general interest to the long-time USCHO readers … but once upon a time, when the kids were just kids, we enjoyed a private impromptu tour of then-Governor Shaheen's office, courtesy of a once well-known UNH poster who also happened to be one of the higher-ups in her campaign, and had a job in her administration afterwards. Not naming names, and for sure this former poster and myself were NOT on the same page politically … but we had a ton of fun on here together for the UNH cause, in those days when there was actually a legit debate between UNH and BC posters about which program was best.

                              He's since moved on to other Dem campaigns and candidates in other states, and I kind of keep track in a loose way on how he's doing, and where he's doing it - like you do with friends who've moved away. I have no idea (but I harbor some suspicions) as to whether he's ever come back to visit here under another name. IIRC he's a UNH alum, so I'm sure he's as distressed about the program's slide as most of us, and that's probably made him stepping back from prior activity levels easier. Heck - there were a few years in the late aughts/early teens where I was so busy with other things that I rarely posted here. It's not that I stopped caring, stopped seeing games, watching others, following on the radio or Internet, etc. It's just that other things tended to fill the void. And things that once were fun and seemed important (UNH vs. BC) were settled stories, with nothing really left to debate.

                              But he was (and I'm sure he still is) a great guy who was a wonderful friend in the real world, and a terrific ally to have on your "side" on this board. On a lot of the issues we're debating on this thread, my guess is he'd be more closely aligned with Darius, 'Watcher and yourself, HR. He'd be on here giving it to me with both barrels. But afterwards, we'd still be friends and he'd be as welcome in my home as we were in his boss' office that day over 20 years ago.

                              Isn't that the way it should be?
                              Thats a blast from the past. When I hear Shaheens name it brings those days on here back
                              I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

                              Maine Hockey Love it or Leave it

                              Comment


                              • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                                Originally posted by walrus View Post
                                Thats a blast from the past. When I hear Shaheens name it brings those days on here back
                                Yeah, some fun times back in the day, eh Wally? Not much was off limits, skins were thicker, too.

                                Noticed that 'Watcher pulled his post … Peart's lyrics were definitely on point … bummer …

                                Maybe not quite prime-era Rush musically, but there's no such thing as "bad" Rush.
                                Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                                Montreal Expos Forever ...

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