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COVID-19 - Part 2

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  • Originally posted by Darius View Post
    No chit. Really?
    I wouldn't chit you Darius
    UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

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    • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

      Originally posted by Whalers View Post
      Appears that the London Imperial College scientists who predicted catastrophic Wuhan Virus death totals in the UK have slightly adjusted their "figures". The prediction for 500,000 coronavirus deaths has been nudged just a bit lower to 20,000 or fewer.
      I know. Glad you finally came around to supporting the enforcement of lockdowns here in the US. It's a great credit to quick responses and lockdowns.

      Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the coronavirus death toll is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower if lockdown measures continue
      He told the BBC Today program on Thursday: “With the lockdown now in place, those numbers are going to start to plateau.”
      Last edited by NCAA watcher; 03-27-2020, 10:35 AM.
      The Souza record:
      15-16 10th place
      16-17 10th place
      17-18 11th place
      18-19 8th place
      19-20 9th place
      20-21 10th place
      21-22 9th place
      22-23 10th place

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      • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

        Originally posted by NCAA watcher View Post
        I know. Glad you finally came around to supporting the enforcement of lockdowns here in the US. It's a great credit to quick responses and lockdowns.
        the 20,000 number also assumes 50% of the UK population has already been infected and recovered. It would be great news if it were really that mild that most people have had it and didn't even know it. I'd wait for more data to support that though. Antibody tests might help quantify the size of the population that has already been infected.

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        • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

          Well, the latest Fake News narrative has rolled ashore over the last 24 hours … how the US has now purportedly surpassed China as "world leaders in reported COVID-19 cases" (quick test - pick the key word in the quoted section?). MSM seems to have gotten their marching orders from Beijing, they're in lockstep now … advancing yet another propaganda-fueled pro-China bogus narrative, which (of course) hinges on the accuracy and honesty of the Chinese Politburo and its toadies, so well-known as those enlightened champions of transparency.

          It's remarkable … it might even be admirable (in some context) for its total exhaustive focus, except for the inconvenient fact it's always advancing an anti-Trump (and by extension, an anti-American) agenda. It just comes in waves, one after the next, and as soon as one gets knocked down, the next tide of BS flows in. For 3+ years, it's "Russia-Russia-Russia", then flipping the Ukraine-Biden situation to try to overthrow soft coup impeach the President … eventually taking China's side (along with the NBA and other abhorrently selfish "woke" entities) in its putdown of the protesters in Hong Kong, and now swallowing blatant propaganda on numbers to cast the totalitarian commies in the best possible light.

          I mean … yesterday or the day before (hard to keep track of days when there's no discernable weekends), I had someone on here lecturing me about the veracity of some medical study being elevated on Bloomberg originating out of (drum roll please) … China. As if there's anything that's emanating from China independently, and without some purpose to serve the best interests of China.

          Whalers has been doing great work on the data side (and elsewhere), and reminding us that models are just models - created by people, and subject to the creators' assumptions and biases that sometimes fit either with their world view or a desired outcome. Sometimes manipulation of models arises from an honest error … other times, it's an attempt to produce a desired result. How it all shakes out here will likely have a carry-forward effect on how similar modeling is perceived in other areas where they're applied to justify OR refute projections, arguments or agendas. I hope people are paying attention, though, as this won't be the last time we encounter a situation where the possibility of bad-faith modeling is used to advance an agenda ...
          Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
          Montreal Expos Forever ...

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          • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

            Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
            Whalers has been doing great work on the data side (and elsewhere), and reminding us that models are just models - created by people, and subject to the creators' assumptions and biases that sometimes fit either with their world view or a desired outcome. Sometimes manipulation of models arises from an honest error … other times, it's an attempt to produce a desired result.
            Your lauding of Whaler seems to ignore everything. The only "great work" on the "data side" is that Whalers showed was that you get very different results when you change one assumption in the model, one assuming quarantines, and one not. That this greatly changes the death rate does not suggest the "model" is unreliable (as you seem to want to conclude). it actually proves the opposite: that the variable is pretty **** important.
            That's science. It's like saying "If I shoot you I assume you will die, but if I don't shoot you I assume you will not die." The "model" comes up with two very different results. But that doesn't undermine the model: it just shows that shooting is a major variable in the outcome.

            The fact that you treat basic logic as "bad faith modeling" with an "agenda" is .... I can't even fathom viewing everything through such a skewed political prism that cites facts that actually prove the opposite point, without even taking the first step in understanding what the fact means, just because they seemingly support a formed world view.
            Last edited by NCAA watcher; 03-27-2020, 10:36 AM.
            The Souza record:
            15-16 10th place
            16-17 10th place
            17-18 11th place
            18-19 8th place
            19-20 9th place
            20-21 10th place
            21-22 9th place
            22-23 10th place

            Comment


            • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

              Whilst Joe Biden accused of sexual assault.
              https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/joe-...211641946.html
              UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

              Comment


              • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                Originally posted by chuck murray View Post
                … how the us has now purportedly surpassed china as "world leaders in reported covid-19 cases"...
                We're number one!... We're number one!... We're...
                Last edited by Darius; 03-27-2020, 10:35 AM.
                I will not be out cheered in my own building.

                Comment


                • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                  Originally posted by e.cat View Post
                  Whilst Joe Biden accused of sexual assault.
                  https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/joe-...211641946.html
                  I guess at this stage of his life/campaign, he can honestly say, "I don't remember".

                  Comment


                  • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                    86,012 infected, 1,301 dead = 1.51% Johns Hopkins data as of: 3/27/20 11:13:47 AM.

                    US population = 330,000,000, projected infections 70,000,000 - 150,000,000 = 1,057,000 - 2,265,000 deaths.

                    New York (CITY) with 365 is #8 in the deaths by COUNTRY/REGION/CATEGORY list.**

                    CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been 23,000 – 59,000 US flu deaths.

                    ** I misinterpreted this category. it is not a country list. I think it has to do with statistical areas geographically (a European country in the EU equates to a state in the US) or an interpretation of sovereignty. I am going to remove it going forward.
                    I will not be out cheered in my own building.

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                    • Originally posted by Whalers View Post
                      I guess at this stage of his life/campaign, he can honestly say, "I don't remember".
                      Or...to use a line right out of DJT's playbook "I dont take any responsibility at all". If this is true he should be held accountable...as should DJT.
                      Here we go 'Cats!!

                      Comment


                      • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                        Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post
                        The bar was very low. Be best.
                        Gotta say that if I were not curious, didn't like stats/math, politics or KNOWING facts/truth/history of things and had the TV on in the background while preparing dinner, I'd vote for him in November based on what I casually observed yesterday. The President had his cringe worthy (for me) moments (China, media), but overall he came across well. They've got the process under control where he speaks, takes a few questions and splits, leaving TV to go back to regular programming while VP Pence speaks and cutting back to the White House for Drs. Fauci and Birx. The fact that if one repeats something enough, over and over again, it becomes "fact" is a HUGE problem. Incredible, really.

                        As a point of balance, I heard Bernie Sanders interviewed today. If Covid-19 goes really bad for the US, the fact that we NEED government to be in a position to react quickly to health crises will become a mainstream thing. If Covid-19 goes "well" for the US then we will have to wait until methane flows from our spigots, our rivers burn and our food poisons us more than it already does.
                        Last edited by Darius; 03-27-2020, 11:38 AM.
                        I will not be out cheered in my own building.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Whalers View Post
                          I guess at this stage of his life/campaign, he can honestly say, "I don't remember".
                          Plausible deniability Or he could just say, "What, me too?"!
                          Last edited by e.cat; 03-27-2020, 12:00 PM.
                          UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

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                          • Originally posted by e.cat View Post
                            Plausible deniability Or he could just say, "What, me too!"
                            Yeah...let's joke about the Me,too movement..
                            Here we go 'Cats!!

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                            • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                              Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
                              Yeah...let's joke about the Me,too movement..
                              That's our reality. It will be interesting to see if, when they die, the old bald white guys are replaced by enlightened sensitive millennial/gen Z males or by old bald white guy progeny males.
                              I will not be out cheered in my own building.

                              Comment


                              • Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

                                Originally posted by e.cat View Post
                                Plausible deniability Or he could just say, "What, me too?"!
                                An easier explanation for Joe - Dementia.

                                If the charges were to ever stick, do you think Forgetful Joe could borrow Harvey's walker with the tennis balls on the bottom? Not sure Jill would go for that look.

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