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  • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

    Originally posted by joecct View Post
    Cuts down on Social Security payments, doesn't it?

    (Set Cynical Off)
    Sure. We can make sure the stupid die as well.

    An Arizona man died and his wife was hospitalized after officials said they ingested a fish tank additive that contained the same active ingredient as an anti-malaria drug, which President Trump has referred to as a “game changer.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/u...pcdZjzpMXomvbk
    **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

    Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
    Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

    Comment


    • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

      The stupid will take a fair number of us with them, but given that red and blue staters have been self-segregating for decades it's worth a shot.
      Cornell University
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      • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

        Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post
        Why can't you simply address Handy's "0.1%" simulation instead of fixating on what you think are more unreasonable estimates?
        So, two reasons.

        First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.

        When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.

        So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.

        The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.

        The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.

        But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.

        If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?

        What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.

        So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?

        60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?

        By the way, here is the Walz article on his guess for an infection rate. https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim-...-19/569026922/
        That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

        Comment


        • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

          Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
          So, two reasons.

          First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.

          When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.

          So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.

          The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.

          The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.

          But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.

          If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?

          What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.

          So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?

          60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?

          By the way, here is the Walz article on his guess for an infection rate. https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim-...-19/569026922/
          So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

          Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?

          Comment


          • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

            Originally posted by alfablue View Post
            So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

            Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?
            I think this is where we are at right now with a lot of people My Republican "friends" here at the office are ****ed off right now at the insane liberal media that is overhyping what is nothing more than the flu. I am hearing this a lot right now. And now that that same theme is coming from Trump it's going to gain steam.

            Trump is holding a Town Hall on Fox today?
            **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

            Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
            Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

            Comment


            • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

              From NY1's Anthony Pascale

              BREAKING: Gov Cuomo: “We have to plan the pivot back to economic functionality” Says we may not have to isolate everyone. Could allow the healthy, less vulnerable to work. #COVID19 survival rate is 98%. NY Forward plan to look into restarting economic engine.
              CCT '77 & '78
              4 kids
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              1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

              ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
              - Benjamin Franklin

              Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

              I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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              • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                So, two reasons.

                First, because everyone keeps throwing out huge, unsubstantiated numbers and then asks people to make basic assumptions about those numbers. Well meaning people, but absurd numbers nonetheless. For example, Governor Walz, who is doing a terrific job throws out a guess that 40 to 80% of Minnesotans will be infected. I'll link to the article. There is literally nothing in the article that gives us any idea as to why we should think that number is realistic or what it's based on. He just threw it out there. Well, there is a huge difference between 40% and 80% of the population, even in Minnesota.

                When I question the numbers, then people like Handy just say something like, ok, ignore the 45% figure and let's go with 20% or something like that. We're just making up numbers and then doing calculations about how many ventilators we'll need.

                So that's the first problem, everyone just wants to use a big number to show how bad the need is.

                The second is this. Handy discussed a very important issue, and that is the question that relates to available healthcare resources. He is absolutely right. If we need 1.5 million ventilators in the next month, we aren't going to have them. Why we have that shortage is for another discussion, but he's right about that.

                The healthcare system can only do what it can do. It would be no different than if instead of all dying when the Twin Towers collapsed, the 3000 people were critically injured. The NYC healthcare system would have been overwhelmed and they would have had to engage in triage. Some people are going to die because of lack of available healthcare. That happens every day, and it will happen here.

                But more importantly, and what no one on this board is willing to talk about, are the actual numbers.

                If I asked you this question, "how many more deaths were there in this country in 2019 as compared with say 2010," what would your answer be?

                What if I told you that there were something like 375,000 more deaths here in 2019 than in 2010? Did it feel like it to you? Were we having conversations on this board about where all the people went in this country? No, of course not. Literally no one except demographers even noticed.

                So let's assume all 1.5 million of Handy's ventilator patients die (which they shouldn't if half of them have available ventilators). In the big picture is that a human tragedy unknown to man?

                60 million people a year die on this planet, year after year after year. This virus has killed 17,000 worldwide in what, three months?

                By the way, here is the Walz article on his guess for an infection rate. https://www.startribune.com/gov-tim-...-19/569026922/
                FOr the morons in the back:

                THRY ARE NOT UNSUBSTANTIATED

                “But mah biznuss!”
                Code:
                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                Originally posted by SanTropez
                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                Originally posted by Kepler
                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                Comment


                • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                  Originally posted by alfablue View Post
                  So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

                  Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?
                  What would I do if I had complete control.

                  In those locations hardest hit, I would use more aggressive shelter in place applications. Target the clusters.
                  I would preach strenuous social distancing. Wash hands. De-sanitize. Stay home if you're sick or in contact with someone who is.
                  I would find those who are sick and isolate them. I'd try to trace their contacts (not people they may have walked past, but people where they share spaces and touched the same things and had real contact with), and I'd isolate those contacts.
                  I would do everything I could to try to get healthcare supplies into the hands of healthcare workers. Masks, gloves, ventilators and everything else could no longer be sold privately but could only go to healthcare facilities for the next few months.
                  I'd pour money into the healthcare system to set up isolation buildings and tents.
                  I'd tell healthcare to do what you can, but protect yourselves.
                  That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                    Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                    What would I do if I had complete control.

                    In those locations hardest hit, I would use more aggressive shelter in place applications. Target the clusters.
                    I would preach strenuous social distancing. Wash hands. De-sanitize. Stay home if you're sick or in contact with someone who is.
                    I would find those who are sick and isolate them. I'd try to trace their contacts (not people they may have walked past, but people where they share spaces and touched the same things and had real contact with), and I'd isolate those contacts.
                    I would do everything I could to try to get healthcare supplies into the hands of healthcare workers. Masks, gloves, ventilators and everything else could no longer be sold privately but could only go to healthcare facilities for the next few months.
                    I'd pour money into the healthcare system to set up isolation buildings and tents.
                    I'd tell healthcare to do what you can, but protect yourselves.
                    You missed the first step of your process, which would be to test everyone. You don't know which locations are hardest hit, where there are clusters, and finding those who are sick without testing literally everyone. So, I think step 1 of your solution would have to be round up 350m tests (along with the appropriate supplies) and test the entire population. You'd also have to prevent movement until the results of such testing is known, and you'd also have to restrict people/products entering the country subject to some mandatory isolation period. Once you've done that, then perhaps your solution could work.
                    North Dakota
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                    Comment


                    • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                      Originally posted by alfablue View Post
                      So what is your point? Based on your questions, what do you think we should be doing??? I don't get it.

                      Are you suggesting that the world should just accept the increase in deaths, or are you thinking of a different way of dealing with it?
                      Of course that’s what he’s saying. He’ll deny it.

                      He plays this stupidly transparent game where he heavily implies something and then when you call him out he says “I didn’t say that! I’m an independent!” Or some such hot garbage. Then he’ll nail himself to the cross, being absolutely sure to leave one hand free to take a key phrase out from a post where someone called him out on his bull**** impolitely, and wave it as a flag for all to see.

                      Whatever. He’s a really skilled troll. I bite, you bite, we all bite. He’s really good at it. But ultimately, he’s still Bob Gray.
                      Code:
                      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                      College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                      BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                      Originally posted by SanTropez
                      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                      Originally posted by Kepler
                      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                      Comment


                      • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                        Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                        You missed the first step of your process, which would be to test everyone. You don't know which locations are hardest hit, where there are clusters, and finding those who are sick without testing literally everyone. So, I think step 1 of your solution would have to be round up 350m tests (along with the appropriate supplies) and test the entire population. You'd also have to prevent movement until the results of such testing is known, and you'd also have to restrict people/products entering the country subject to some mandatory isolation period. Once you've done that, then perhaps your solution could work.
                        As has been frequently pointed out here, we don't have the tests to do that, but of course you are right, that would be the ideal. Instead, I think we have to use our current limited testing capacity to focus on those with symptoms with the severest cases, and on those with significant contact to persons who have been diagnosed so that we can track contacts.
                        That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                          Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                          Of course that’s what he’s saying. He’ll deny it.

                          He plays this stupidly transparent game where he heavily implies something and then when you call him out he says “I didn’t say that! I’m an independent!” Or some such hot garbage. Then he’ll nail himself to the cross, being absolutely sure to leave one hand free to take a key phrase out from a post where someone called him out on his bull**** impolitely, and wave it as a flag for all to see.

                          Whatever. He’s a really skilled troll. I bite, you bite, we all bite. He’s really good at it. But ultimately, he’s still Bob Gray.
                          I'm not going to deny it at all. This virus may very well kill a million people (it'll have to step up it's game to get there, but it can be done). We have to accept that. If it does, that will certainly be a tragedy for the families. But 2.8 million of us were going to die in this country anyway this year, so yeah, it'll be a very bad year, but it's not end times.
                          That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                            Ya, they might as well die in mass shootings!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                              Ya, they might as well die in mass shootings!
                              Churches are closed.
                              CCT '77 & '78
                              4 kids
                              5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                              1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                              ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                              - Benjamin Franklin

                              Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                              I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                              Comment


                              • Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

                                Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                                You missed the first step of your process, which would be to test everyone. You don't know which locations are hardest hit, where there are clusters, and finding those who are sick without testing literally everyone. So, I think step 1 of your solution would have to be round up 350m tests (along with the appropriate supplies) and test the entire population. You'd also have to prevent movement until the results of such testing is known, and you'd also have to restrict people/products entering the country subject to some mandatory isolation period. Once you've done that, then perhaps your solution could work.
                                I think Trump yesterday forgot that this foe is not invisible if we mass test everyone. We should have had mass testing already. We should have had the military and doctors help set up drive through testing facilities. Things are easier with real data.
                                **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                                Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                                Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                                Comment

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