Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

[mookie1995]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

This is how we save social security.... c’mon man!!!

[Handyman]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

US cruises past 46k.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

The problem is though that nobody’s sister is making a video saying 0.1% will get this or 5% will get it. Instead we have people like your Twitter doctor or the California governor claiming 45% which freaks people out, including many here, when there is no basis for it. It’s like Trump saying we’ll have a vaccine next week. No scientific basis for it and it’s extremely misleading and counter-productive.

Why can't you simply address Handy's "0.1%" simulation instead of fixating on what you think are more unreasonable estimates?

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

This is a very, very, very bad chart for the US. pic.twitter.com/Cg5A7vlCa5

— Franklin Leonard (@franklinleonard) March 24, 2020

[Handyman]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Some audio from @VaughnHillyard interview here:https://t.co/avXDa3KaGC https://t.co/n82DPOpekF

— Heidi Przybyla (@HeidiNBC) March 24, 2020

[Handyman]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

West Hollywood mayor, who tested positive for #coronavirus, said his husband attended a conference of the American Group Psychotherapy Assn. in New York in early March. The event has been tied to at least 22 positive cases. https://t.co/noWCVLznh5

— Hailey Branson-Potts (@haileybranson) March 23, 2020

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

This is a very, very, very bad chart for the US. pic.twitter.com/Cg5A7vlCa5

— Franklin Leonard (@franklinleonard) March 24, 2020

Important to realize: that's a log chart, folks.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

I wondered where Russia was.

It's a combination of two things. First, they're lying, of course. But also their tests are far less sensitive. I'm kinda surprised, actually. In the Bad Olde Days immunology was one of the things the Soviets were not sucky at.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

"Better Dead Than In The Red"

— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) March 24, 2020

1200: Your duty is to die for your king.

1600: Your duty is to die for your church.

2000: Your duty is to die for your job creators.

SSDD.

[cF[Authentic]]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

We need to stop caring about the number of infected. That number is ridiculously low due to the lack of tests. Even in Italy, where only certain people can get tested, it's stupidly low. Sure, the "numbers" may say only 1% of the population has Covid-19 but when sick people are being turned away from testing, those aren't accurate numbers. We'll never know truly how many people are infected until everyone can get a test every few days.

Follow the death rate. For those that claimed this was just like the flu, we'll be passing the daily number of flu deaths in the country today. And it's not going down any time soon.

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

huskeyfan- thanks for the private update, that's good to hear! But I am concerned that people who visit one of the big box markets in the area are not aware of people who got sick and work there....

I get that not everyone should get tested, but given some of the work that does have to continue, the stores that stay open should be far more important to control the spread- just like doctors and police.

Which then brings up a next question- how long from the last real symptom until you can start interacting with people? And then how long until you can return to a supply job that is important to people staying home?

Three more days until we started our WFH, and no contact with work. Couple more days after that until the time we were within a few feet of a person in a grocery store. Not sure what side of the statistics we end up being on- w/o tests we have no idea if we had it from travel in Feb or if we are safe....

[LynahFan]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

If I see one more person use the phrase “per capita” in an argument downplaying the seriousness of what we’re facing, I might scream out loud. Per capita has nothing do do with a disease that spreads exponentially. When the very first case cam into the US (presumably on a plane from China), out per capita incidence was 1 in 331M. What does that prove? Nothing. A low per capita rate just means you’re early on the curve, not that the curve won’t grow.

The exponential growth rate is determined by 3 factors: the number of days that infected people are contagious, the number of interactions per day that infected people have with uninflected people per day, and the probability that each of those interactions leads to the uninflected person contracting the disease. Multiply those thee numbers together, and you get the number of new cases that each case will spawn. If that number is greater than 1 - congratulations, you’re on an exponential growth curve. Period.

So the only way to beat this is to decrease one or more of those three factors. Treatment is all about reducing the duration that sick people are contagious (factor 1). Unfortunately, we don’t seem to have any effective solutions in this area yet, despite The Toddler’s advise that we should drink fish tank cleaner. Moving on to interactions per day (factor 2) is where social distancing can make a real difference. Cut your interactions in half, and you’ve halved your transmission rate - poof. That wasn’t so hard, was it? Finally, we can reduce the probability that a given interaction leads to a new infection (factor 3) can be reduced through PPE and hygiene. If the healthy person doesn’t get the virus on them due to PPE or washes the virus off before it can enter the body, no new infection will result from the interaction.

So that’s it. Everything else is smoke and mirrors and politics.

It come down to:

1. Stay the F••• home
2. Wash your D••• hands
3. Provide the right PPE to people who must interact with infected people. I’m looking at you, Toddler.

If we, as a society, won’t do those three things, then we will have chosen our own disaster.

[state of hockey]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So we're doing The Trolley Problem but the most important thing is to save the trolley

— Mark Agee (@MarkAgee) March 24, 2020

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

So, we need to die for the economy? That's what the Republicans are going with now?

[joecct]

So, we need to die for the economy? That's what the Republicans are going with now?

Cuts down on Social Security payments, doesn't it?

(Set Cynical Off)