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  • #46
    Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
    This has been debunked. THey keep changing the attribution but it has been around for weeks now
    Yeah I was gonna say, this was debunked weeks ago when I was still leaving my house

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    • #47
      Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

      Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
      Has anyone in Minnesota lost their job or had their hours reduced?
      The exact opposite. Given my job...work gonna be crazy for a while.

      Half of what Scarlet said is false from what I know. The "hard" surfaces, like steel/etc, it's 3 days. Cardboard, 1 day. Copper, a few hours. And that is with all factors in a perfect condition to spread the virus.

      Yes, wash hands often. Limited contact. Basic stuff.
      Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
      Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
        Has anyone in Minnesota lost their job or had their hours reduced?
        My brother-in-law closed his bar after trying to stay open as a takeout restaurant. That wasn’t working. He has/had about 20 employees.
        "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

        "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

        "Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth

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        • #49
          Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

          CDC disease portal page
          https://phgkb.cdc.gov/PHGKB/coVInfoS...C_16_1-DM24883

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          • #50
            Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

            I also posted this on the regular thread. The best medical description of the disease I have seen.
            Cornell University
            National Champion 1967, 1970
            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
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            • #51
              Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
              I also posted this on the regular thread. The best medical description of the disease I have seen.
              I admire his knowledge and his presentation skills but his information related to R0 was a bit flawed. He took the high end of 3 on Covid-19 and the low end of 1 on influenza. In reality, they seem to be very similar to each other, somewhere more between 2-3. Not sure why he did that other than it setup a dramatic, exponential curve for for Covid-19 and a flat line for influenza.

              In 2019-20, to date, roughly 10,000 people have died from Covid-19 while 30,000 have died from influenza. That comparison will no doubt flip but let's not just write off influenza as some slow moving little nuisance. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu in this country every year.
              I went home with a waitress the way I always do
              How was I to know she was with the russians, too?

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              • #52
                Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
                I admire his knowledge and his presentation skills but his information related to R0 was a bit flawed. He took the high end of 3 on Covid-19 and the low end of 1 on influenza. In reality, they seem to be very similar to each other, somewhere more between 2-3. Not sure why he did that other than it setup a dramatic, exponential curve for for Covid-19 and a flat line for influenza.

                In 2019-20, to date, roughly 10,000 people have died from Covid-19 while 30,000 have died from influenza. That comparison will no doubt flip but let's not just write off influenza as some slow moving little nuisance. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu in this country every year.
                I have never seen a number for seasonal flu that his higher than 1.5 and and 1.5 to 2.5 is a huge difference.
                After 10 iterations influenza patient zero has infected 58 people, covid-19 has infected 9,536. Obviously 1 and 3 are extremes but its not like they're that far off from reality. Even if you go down to 2 for covid-19 you're looking at 1024 vs 58.
                Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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                • #53
                  Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                  R0 isn't a perfect metric in any case. How much testing was done, who was tested, herd immunity, vaccinations, etc. It's hard to make valid comparisons. It's all a bit ballpark. And it's especially hard to know the R0 for this "new" virus. But based on what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza, it's highly unlikely that Covid-19 is 3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu. To me, that seemed a little sensational.
                  I went home with a waitress the way I always do
                  How was I to know she was with the russians, too?

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                    Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
                    R0 isn't a perfect metric in any case. How much testing was done, who was tested, herd immunity, vaccinations, etc. It's hard to make valid comparisons. It's all a bit ballpark. And it's especially hard to know the R0 for this "new" virus. But based on what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza, it's highly unlikely that Covid-19 is 3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu. To me, that seemed a little sensational.
                    sure its a little extreme but to draw out 2.5 and 1.5 people doesn't exactly make as much sense at 1 vs 3. It got the point across.
                    Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                    Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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                    • #55
                      Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                      The point it got across to me was one was on an exponential curve and the other was a flat line. I don't think that's a valid point in any way.

                      Since it seems we're having this discussion we should probably define R0. My understanding is it measures how transmissible (contagious, infectious) a virus would be moving through a population with no immunity, vaccinations, or interventions.

                      That state of things passed a long time ago for influenza. So long ago that, again it's my understanding, the CDC doesn't even use R0 for influenza any more and has a different metric that they use for similar purposes. However, it's believed, based on historical data that influenza would have a true R0 of around 2.5.*

                      It's hard to know where Covid-19 will land but based on other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS it seems like it's going to be more in the 2-4 range, sort of mid to low end of the table, and nowhere near the high end of things with the 10-12 of measles and chicken pox.


                      (*The RO for influenza, even with herd immunity and vaccinations seems to be somewhere around 2. That's in large part due to the half-baked job we do with that particular immunization program. Immunizations obviously work - good bye smallpox and polio - we just don't seem to care to put the effort in to eliminate influenza.)
                      I went home with a waitress the way I always do
                      How was I to know she was with the russians, too?

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                        Influenza Deaths in the US
                        2010-11 --- 37,000
                        2011-12 --- 12,000
                        2012-13 --- 43,000
                        2013-14 --- 38,000
                        2014-15 --- 51,000
                        2015-16 --- 23,000
                        2016-17 --- 38,000
                        2017-18 --- 61,000
                        2018-19 --- 34,000

                        I don't post that to diminish Covid-19. I post that because it seems that people think we've been living in this pure, clean world with no viruses, and suddenly we've gone from 0 to 100 on this. We haven't. Viruses are among us. They kill tens of thousands of us per year.

                        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
                        I went home with a waitress the way I always do
                        How was I to know she was with the russians, too?

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                          Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
                          Influenza Deaths in the US
                          2010-11 --- 37,000
                          2011-12 --- 12,000
                          2012-13 --- 43,000
                          2013-14 --- 38,000
                          2014-15 --- 51,000
                          2015-16 --- 23,000
                          2016-17 --- 38,000
                          2017-18 --- 61,000
                          2018-19 --- 34,000

                          I don't post that to diminish Covid-19. I post that because it seems that people think we've been living in this pure, clean world with no viruses, and suddenly we've gone from 0 to 100 on this. We haven't. Viruses are among us. They kill tens of thousands of us per year.

                          https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
                          All of those numbers are in a completely different ballpark to what COVID would have done if we had simply gone about our lives. Everyone knows that it's possible to die from the flu. The Spanish flu killed millions of people (albeit at a much different time in human history, with much less/worse medicine).

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                          • #58
                            Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                            Originally posted by jflory81 View Post
                            All of those numbers are in a completely different ballpark to what COVID would have done if we had simply gone about our lives. Everyone knows that it's possible to die from the flu. The Spanish flu killed millions of people (albeit at a much different time in human history, with much less/worse medicine).
                            Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

                            I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

                            I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
                            I went home with a waitress the way I always do
                            How was I to know she was with the russians, too?

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                              Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
                              Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

                              I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

                              I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
                              because this wasn't about thousands of lives. This was about way more than that, and we don't have any real defense against this virus. If we did nothing our hospital system would be overwhelmed and way more people would die. I'm not sure why you are defending the idea that this isn't that different than the flu when everything I've read says that its very different. Way more cases with little to no symptoms, way more transmissible, and more deadly. That is a terrible combination. We have the flu shot, the flu mutates a lot and people are working on a universal flu vaccine, but it hasn't worked yet. We invest a lot into the flu, but it is a known issue. We do our best to mitigate it. This novel coronavirus is not that at all. With so many unknowns and estimated values what they are, it was correct to shut things down enough to give us a chance to catch up.
                              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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                              • #60
                                Re: COVID Resource thread- places to get resources, information or help

                                Originally posted by E.J. Smith View Post
                                Those numbers I posted are simply facts. It's odd that you've taken such a confrontational tone toward them.

                                I think I was clear on why I posted them. I even said they weren't intended to diminish what's going on with Covid-19. I really do think people are completely unaware of how deadly the flu is every year. I think if they were aware, there might be slightly less of the overwrought reaction we're seeing now.

                                I'd also point out something else related to those numbers. If we social distanced, closed schools, and shut down business during every flu season, October to March of every year, we would save thousands of lives; literally thousands of lives every year. That too is simply a fact. But we don't do it. Why?
                                I literally just responded with facts. You chose to interpret that in a confrontational tone.

                                I would suggest that things don't shut down every flu season because
                                1) the incubation period of the flu is much lower, meaning it is not spread as easily unknowingly by people who don't show symptoms. We're also more careful about seeing elderly relatives/friends who are the most vulnerable when we're sick. When the incubation period is about ~3.5 times longer that's a whole lot more time you can get the elderly sick, and it's more contagious and deadly to boot!

                                2) Tens of thousands of people simply isn't that big a number in the grand scheme of things, as cold as that sounds (about 1 in 10,000 people - about the same amount of people die from car accidents or suicides yearly, and those are much younger people, and we are all aware of the risk of car accidents and the prevalence of suicides, I think). The economy does in fact require people getting together and providing goods and services to provide people with money and essential goods. If we end up in the tens of thousands for COVID and not the hundreds of thousands, it will be because Americans did an extraordinary job of social distancing and preventing the spread of the disease. I'm not super optimistic on this front, but there's no doubt that no matter where the death count ends up, it would have been much, much worse without what we're doing over the last few weeks.

                                And finally 3) I just want to emphasize once again the difference in scale between what COVID would have been without social distancing, and what the flu is every year. It's not close. It easily could have reached somewhere between 50-100X more deadly without direct intervention. At some point the economy will take a bigger hit from death and sickness than it will from shutting everything down and trying to avoid hundreds of thousands up to possibly more than a million of unnecessary deaths.

                                EDIT: Shirtless Guy brings up a good point about vaccines, too. Obviously they aren't foolproof, but they do provide some level of protection for those that get it and the people around them who may be more vulnerable.
                                Last edited by jflory81; 04-07-2020, 05:51 PM.

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