2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

[Critical Thinker]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

WCHA Semifinals



Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 3:
With both teams' seasons likely on the line the Falcons and the Beavers squared off in Bemidji to decide who would take this WCHA Semifinals series. Once again, the goalkeepers stole the show. Bemidji's Zach Driscoll and Bowling Green's Eric Dop combined to stop all 31 shots on net in the first two periods, leading to a tense final stanza. After forty minutes of scoreless hockey, Bemidji struck first six minutes into the third period, when Charlie Combs corralled a rebound and lifted a backhander over Dop's leg to put the Beavers ahead 1-0. The two sides exchanged powerplay opportunities in the middle of the period, to no avail, but with just over five-and-a-half minutes to play, Bowling Green's T.J. Lloyd ripped a slapshot from the point that beat a screened Driscoll to tie the game at 1-1. It appeared the game was headed for overtime, but with just under a minute to play, Bemidji's Elias Rosen found a streaking Adam Brady with a beautiful feed through the neutral zone. Brady split the Falcons' defenders and lifted a wrister over Dop's glove and into the back of the net to give Bemidji State a 2-1 lead. That would be all Driscoll would need, and the Beavers advanced to the WCHA Championship.

This hurt just as much as reading that our season ended the first time.

[Sol Diablo]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

The bubble shrinks...

1 North Dakota
2 Mankato
3 Cornell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Denver
7 Penn State
8 Clarkson
9 Massachusetts
10 Ohio State
11 Michigan
12 Maine
13 Mass.-Lowell
14 Arizona State
15 Bemidji State
===
AQ AIC
===
16 Western Michigan
17 Quinnipiac

Is this the KRACH or Pairwise ratings change?

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Is this the KRACH or Pairwise ratings change?

Pairwise.

I just your earlier post as well. KRACH is used in the simulator as one of the pieces to determine who will win the matchup. The results of those matchups are then put in the Pairwise calculator, and the NCAA Tournament selection will be based on the simulated AQs from each conference, and then using the Pairwise rankings. I hope that clarifies things a bit.

[ticapnews]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Is this the KRACH or Pairwise ratings change?

Pairwise.

The question that we'll have to resolve is when it comes to seeding the NCAA tournament, should we factor in attendance or just go straight ladder brackets? Obviously we're simulating the games - and the arenas would all be empty anyway - but in the normal tournament (perceived) attendance would be factored into where teams go. I can go either way.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Pairwise.

The question that we'll have to resolve is when it comes to seeding the NCAA tournament, should we factor in attendance or just go straight ladder brackets? Obviously we're simulating the games - and the arenas would all be empty anyway - but in the normal tournament (perceived) attendance would be factored into where teams go. I can go either way.

My thoughts would be to seed it as normal (including attendance swaps). The purpose of the simulation is to provide a "what if" the season hadn't been cancelled. Had the season continued as normal, the committee would have made swaps for attendance/travel purposes. To that end, my vote would be to seed as normal.

[leswp1]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Reality or simulated it still sucks to BU.

My thoughts would be to seed it as normal (including attendance swaps). The purpose of the simulation is to provide a "what if" the season hadn't been cancelled. Had the season continued as normal, the committee would have made swaps for attendance/travel purposes. To that end, my vote would be to seed as normal.

Do we all get to argue about how it is 'fixed', not fair and otherwise sucks the choices they made?? that is some of the best stuff

[ticapnews]

Do we all get to argue about how it is 'fixed', not fair and otherwise sucks the choices they made?? that is some of the best stuff

I'll start a "My team was screwed!" thread when the field is set

[Scarlet]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

w000t! again!! Sorry Scarlet! and the wrap around should be Lee- running joke up where we sit that he always tries but it never goes in. Poetic justice would have him score one in simulated game....

Thanks for this. mr les is looking at me weird because I let out a little cheer when I read who won.

No apologies les! I was entertained and saddened at the same time reading that because I honestly believe that is EXACTLY how I feel that game would’ve gone. And congrats!

[leswp1]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

No apologies les! I was entertained and saddened at the same time reading that because I honestly believe that is EXACTLY how I feel that game would’ve gone. And congrats!

I wasn't- we had been so excellent at finding a way to try to lose.

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And scores from out east are starting to come in...

Air Force @ RIT - Game 3:
While it appeared that the Falcons and the Tigers were set to engage in a classic do-or-die battle, it would not be. The RIT Tigers dominated from the opening faceoff, scoring three first period goals, by Jake Hamacher, Caleb Moretz, and Dan Willett. At the other end of the ice, RIT netminder Logan Drackett saw only 6 shots on net, stopping them all, giving RIT a 3-0 cushion after one. Drackett stymied Air Force in the second period as well, stopping all 8 shots on goal, while Shawn Cameron tallied the fourth goal of the night for the Tigers. Air Force had a chance to get back in the game early in the third period following a bench minor for too many men, but instead of a Falcons goal, it would be Alden Dupuis scoring shorthanded to give the Tigers a commanding 5-0 advantage. That is how the game would end, with RIT punching its ticket to the Atlantic Hockey Semifinals.

I hypothetically lost my voice on Dupuis' shorty.

During the regular season, RIT was 14-4-1 when Moretz got at least a point.

[Sol Diablo]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Do we all get to argue about how it is 'fixed', not fair and otherwise sucks the choices they made?? that is some of the best stuff

Only if we get to include the computer refs are blind!

[Sol Diablo]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Pairwise.

I just your earlier post as well. KRACH is used in the simulator as one of the pieces to determine who will win the matchup. The results of those matchups are then put in the Pairwise calculator, and the NCAA Tournament selection will be based on the simulated AQs from each conference, and then using the Pairwise rankings. I hope that clarifies things a bit.

Yes, thank you for running these. By the way, game simulation is underway for March Madness also, but I don't know what model they are using.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

My thoughts would be to seed it as normal (including attendance swaps). The purpose of the simulation is to provide a "what if" the season hadn't been cancelled. Had the season continued as normal, the committee would have made swaps for attendance/travel purposes. To that end, my vote would be to seed as normal.

I agree, that is how it should be done. Perhaps you can get Jayson Moy to do the analysis.

[leswp1]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Only if we get to include the computer refs are blind!

Hey Ref, you would have been a man....

Just think we don't have to listen to the horrible play by play guy that calls the TV feed. I miss our home radio guy

[geezer]

And here were the results from out west...

WCHA Seminfinals

Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 2:
Michigan Tech's Broetzman's hat trick fuels Huskies to 4-3 upset of Mankato to force a decisive Game 3 for a spot in the WCHA final.

Who do I talk to about getting a deep fake audio of Dirk Hembroff calling the game winner?