2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

[NorthMike]

Hockey East Quarterfinals

Providence @ Boston College - Game 2:
BC advances to the Hockey East Semifinals with a 6-3 win over the Friars.

Connecticut @ Maine - Game 2:
Maine wins an overtime thriller over the Huskies to bring the Black Bears back to Boston, 3-2 in OT.

Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 2:
The Huskies stay alive with a 4-1 win over the Minutemen.

Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 2:
Lowell's Tyler Wall stonewalls the Terriers with a 22-save shutout in game 2 to extend the series to a game 3 tomorrow night.

Wow, had tickets to Maine game but something came up and couldn't make it, must have been great to see. No doubt a packed energized house.

[acs64]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Wow, had tickets to Maine game but something came up and couldn't make it, must have been great to see. No doubt a packed energized house.

Only ones who got to see it were a bunch of viruses.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Only ones who got to see it were a bunch of viruses.

Are you saying that there are viruses on Fighting Sioux 23's computer?

[aparch]

Are you saying that there are viruses on Fighting Sioux 23's computer?

All of us now reading this thread:

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Somehow this made me smile even in a make believe pretend world. So now I have to ask, what is this simulation based on? Is it merely hard statistics?Are there points for grit? A bonus for getting to hard ice? Truculence? How the heck does it make the prediction?? Is there operator nuance?

The CHW simulator uses KRACH as a starting point, and then factors in the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses (looking at various stats from each team) and generates a series of 100 plays (i.e. Faceoff won - Team X; Shot Attempt - Team X (wide, on goal - save, on goal - goal); Penalty - Team X (minor (slashing), major (checking from behind))). Whoever is winning at the end of those 100 plays is declared the winner. If it ends tied, then the simulation is run again, and whoever scores the first goal wins (in OT of course). I use those 100 plays to craft a narrative. Otherwise it would look something like this:

Play 1: Faceoff
Result - Rensselaer Possession
Faceoff Win - Linden

Play 2: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (1)
Result - Save - Gibson (1)
Shooter - Burgess

Play 3: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (2)
Result - Save - Gibson (2)
Shooter - Babichuk

Play 4: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Harvard (1)
Result - Save - Savory (1)
Shooter - Rathbone

Play 5: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (3)
Result - Goal Rensselaer - Gornall
Result - Assist - Polino
Result - Assist - Klee

Play 6: Faceoff
Result - Harvard Possession
Faceoff Win - Drury

Play 7: Shot Attempt
Result - Wide - Rensselaer (1)
Shooter - Kjellberg

So, I use a bit of creativity to craft a narrative. For example, for Play 7, I could go "and moments after RPI took a 1-0 lead, the Engineers nearly added another on Kjellberg's blast from the top of the far circle, which beat Gibson's glove, but rang off the crossbar." Or, I could simply ignore it and move on to the next play.

Dammit. I was afraid of this going into the weekend. Northeastern May very well be the best 7th seed in Hockey East history. Who was in net for UMass?

Probably Lindberg since Murray played game 1. I bet Tyler Madden returns tomorrow if he didn't return tonight.

Correct. The simulator had Lindberg starting for Massachusetts.

Wow, had tickets to Maine game but something came up and couldn't make it, must have been great to see. No doubt a packed energized house.

Sold out crowd, for certain!

Are you saying that there are viruses on Fighting Sioux 23's computer?

As of this morning, my computer was coronavirus free.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Today's Simulated Games:

AHA Tournament
Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Air Force @ RIT - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

ECAC Tournament
Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

Hockey East Tournament
Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

WCHA Tournament
Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

NCHC Tournament
St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)
Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)

B1G Tournament:
Michigan @ Ohio State

[Sol Diablo]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

The CHW simulator uses KRACH as a starting point, and then factors in the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses (looking at various stats from each team) and generates a series of 100 plays (i.e. Faceoff won - Team X; Shot Attempt - Team X (wide, on goal - save, on goal - goal); Penalty - Team X (minor (slashing), major (checking from behind))). Whoever is winning at the end of those 100 plays is declared the winner. If it ends tied, then the simulation is run again, and whoever scores the first goal wins (in OT of course). I use those 100 plays to craft a narrative. Otherwise it would look something like this:

Play 1: Faceoff
Result - Rensselaer Possession
Faceoff Win - Linden

Play 2: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (1)
Result - Save - Gibson (1)
Shooter - Burgess

Play 3: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (2)
Result - Save - Gibson (2)
Shooter - Babichuk

Play 4: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Harvard (1)
Result - Save - Savory (1)
Shooter - Rathbone

Play 5: Shot Attempt
Result - On Goal - Rensselaer (3)
Result - Goal Rensselaer - Gornall
Result - Assist - Polino
Result - Assist - Klee

Play 6: Faceoff
Result - Harvard Possession
Faceoff Win - Drury

Play 7: Shot Attempt
Result - Wide - Rensselaer (1)
Shooter - Kjellberg

So, I use a bit of creativity to craft a narrative. For example, for Play 7, I could go "and moments after RPI took a 1-0 lead, the Engineers nearly added another on Kjellberg's blast from the top of the far circle, which beat Gibson's glove, but rang off the crossbar." Or, I could simply ignore it and move on to the next play.





Correct. The simulator had Lindberg starting for Massachusetts.



Sold out crowd, for certain!



As of this morning, my computer was coronavirus free.

So if you use KRACH as the starting point I guess you don't use autobids into the regionals? Autobids being used in conjunction with Pairwise to determine regionals seeding. Or do you somehow then convert the KRACH conference championships back into Pairwise to get the proper seeding?

[Scrum Bucket]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money 😁

[jjmc85]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Here’s hoping Murray plays tonight for UMass.

[Scrum Bucket]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money 😁

[Iwearpurple]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money ��

I have an awful lot of different Monopoly sets. I will send more than Scrum Bucket.

Go Mavs!

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

This is fun

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And scores from out east are starting to come in...

AHA Quarterfinals

Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 3:
The Sacred Heart Pioneers hosted the Robert Morris Colonials in a winner-take-all Game 3 of their Atlantic Hockey Quarterfinal series. The Pioneers' Josh Benson played exceptional in the first period, stopping all 11 shots he faced. Meanwhile, the Colonials Justin Kapelmaster was equally up to the task, thwarting each of the 8 shots on goal mustered by SHU in the opening frame. Both goaltenders continued their strong play into the second period, but Sacred Heart broke the stalemate late in the middle stanza on a powerplay goal by Matt Tugnutt. The Pioneers doubled their advantage just before the second intermission when Mike Lee bombed a slapshot past Kapelmaster's blocker to give SHU a 2-0 advantage after 40 minutes. Robert Morris pulled back within one just over four minutes into the third period on Nick Jenny's wrister from the point. Robert Morris had a golden opportunity to level the score midway through the final period after Sacred Heart's Alex Bates was called for roughing. Unfortunately for RMU, Benson stopped each of their three chances on the powerplay. As the clock ticked to zero, Sacred Heart fended off a late Colonial-charge, and when the final horn sounded, it was Sacred Heart winning the game and the series 2-1.

Air Force @ RIT - Game 3:
While it appeared that the Falcons and the Tigers were set to engage in a classic do-or-die battle, it would not be. The RIT Tigers dominated from the opening faceoff, scoring three first period goals, by Jake Hamacher, Caleb Moretz, and Dan Willett. At the other end of the ice, RIT netminder Logan Drackett saw only 6 shots on net, stopping them all, giving RIT a 3-0 cushion after one. Drackett stymied Air Force in the second period as well, stopping all 8 shots on goal, while Shawn Cameron tallied the fourth goal of the night for the Tigers. Air Force had a chance to get back in the game early in the third period following a bench minor for too many men, but instead of a Falcons goal, it would be Alden Dupuis scoring shorthanded to give the Tigers a commanding 5-0 advantage. That is how the game would end, with RIT punching its ticket to the Atlantic Hockey Semifinals.

ECAC Quarterfinals

Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 3:
Game 3 of the Battle for Connecticut saw the Yale Bulldogs and the Quinnipiac Bobcats skate to an entertaining match with a spot in Lake Placid on the line. The Bobcats struck first midway through the opening stanza on Wyatt Bongiovanni's wrister from the slot the beat Yale goalie Corbin Kaczperski stick-side. Yale responded, and with just over a minute left in the first period knotted the game on Curtis Hall's one-timer from the near circle. Hall gave the Bulldogs the lead early in the second period on another beautiful one-timer from the bottom of the far circle that just beat Bobcat goaltender Keith Petruzzelli's outstretched glove. However, the Bobcats would respond, and midway through the game William Fallstrom slammed home a rebound to knot the score at 2-2. The game remained tied until just six minutes left in the third, when Nick Jermain grabbed a loose puck out of the corner and fed Karlis Cuskte for a howitzer from the point that didn't give Kaczperski a chance. The goal gave Quinnipiac a 3-2 lead heading into the final minutes of regulation. The Bulldogs ferociously fought to level the score, but Petruzzelli held off their charge, and when the horn sounded to end the game, Quinnipiac edged out Yale 3-2 to advance to the ECAC Semifinals.

Hockey East Quarterfinals

Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 3:
This Battle in the Bay State (commonwealth?) held not only bragging rights, but a spot in the Hockey East Semifinals at the Garden for the winner. Massachusetts started off strong, taking a 2-0 lead midway through the first period on goals by John Leonard and Bobby Trivigno. Northeastern would come back strong however, getting a late goal in the first by Tyler Madden and an early second period powerplay goal by Grant Jozefek to tie the game at 2-2. The netminders took over at that point, as Northeastern's Craig Pantano and Massachusetts' Matt Murray traded save-after-save to keep the game tied at 2 heading into the third. The final frame was one to remember for the home crowd, as John Leonard continued his tremendous season with his second goal of the game early in the period to give the Minutemen a 3-2 advantage. UMASS added to their lead minutes later on Matthew Kessel's blast from the near boards that beat a screened Pantano and gave Massachusetts a 4-2 lead. Murray continued his strong play from the second, and stopped each of Northeastern's 12 shots on goal in the last twenty, and the Minutemen held on for a 4-2 victory and a 2-1 series win.

Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 3:
Another all-Massachusetts showdown in Hockey East this evening in the pivotal game 3 of the Terriers' and Riverhawks' Hockey East Quarterfinal series. Lowell's Matt Brown put the Riverhawks ahead early on a wraparound goal that snuck through BU's Senior netminder Sam Tucker's five-hole. UML continued its strong start notching two more goals in the first period, by Chase Blakmun and Andre Lee, to take a 3-0 advantage. However, the game was not over. BU capitalized on an early powerplay opportunity in the second period when Patrick Harper's wrister found the back of the net. Harper added his second goal of the night midway through the game to pull the Terriers within a goal at 3-2. The key point in the game occurred just before the end of the second period. Harper had a partial breakaway and his wrister beat Tyler Wall, but rang off the goal post. The Riverhawks then gained possession, and with just over ten seconds left in the period, Colin O'Neill launched a wrister from the bottom of the near circle that trickled over Tucker's shoulder and into the net to give Lowell a 4-2 lead. Lowell seized on that momentum shift and came out flying to start the third, and on the period's first shot, Brown lit the lamp with his second goal of the game to give UML a 5-2 advantage. BU continued to fight on, and a late goal by Patrick Curry pulled the Terriers within two with just over two minutes to play. BU notched another tally with just over thirty seconds to play when David Farrance's wrister from the blueline weaved its way through bodies to find the net and the Lowell crowd held their breaths. Fortunately for the Riverhawks, BU was unable to muster another opportunity to tie the game, and when the final horn buzzed, it was Massachusetts Lowell advancing to the Hockey East Semifinals with a 5-4 win.

[joecct]

Thanks for the great explanation. Now if MTU could beat the purple cow, that’d be great.....let me know where to send the Monopoly money 😁

Williams plays D3 NESCAC

[DrewQU99]

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And scores from out east are starting to come in...

ECAC Quarterfinals

Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 3:
Game 3 of the Battle for Connecticut saw the Yale Bulldogs and the Quinnipiac Bobcats skate to an entertaining match with a spot in Lake Placid on the line. The Bobcats struck first midway through the opening stanza on Wyatt Bongiovanni's wrister from the slot the beat Yale goalie Corbin Kaczperski stick-side. Yale responded, and with just over a minute left in the first period knotted the game on Curtis Hall's one-timer from the near circle. Hall gave the Bulldogs the lead early in the second period on another beautiful one-timer from the bottom of the far circle that just beat Bobcat goaltender Keith Petruzzelli's outstretched glove. However, the Bobcats would respond, and midway through the game William Fallstrom slammed home a rebound to knot the score at 2-2. The game remained tied until just six minutes left in the third, when Nick Jermain grabbed a loose puck out of the corner and fed Karlis Cuskte for a howitzer from the point that didn't give Kaczperski a chance. The goal gave Quinnipiac a 3-2 lead heading into the final minutes of regulation. The Bulldogs ferociously fought to level the score, but Petruzzelli held off their charge, and when the horn sounded to end the game, Quinnipiac edged out Yale 3-2 to advance to the ECAC Semifinals.

Thanks for doing this. This is fun.

Next stop: "Fake" Placid! (credit French Rage for coming up with this clever name)