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2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

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  • 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    As we all have heard by now, the remainder of the 2019-2020 college hockey season has been cancelled. However, as some of you may remember, the guys at College Hockey Weekly had put together a simulator that can be used to play out the remainder of the 2019-2020 postseason, including the NCAA Tournament. To that end, I have started imputing all the data required by the simulator, and I should be able to start getting "results" for the conference tournament games here shortly. For those interested in fighting the world of boredom left in the wake of the cancellation of the rest of the college hockey season this year, this thread will serve as a way to play a game of "What If."

    As a primer, the CHW simulator uses KRACH as a starting point, and then factors in the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses and generates a series of 100 plays (i.e. Faceoff won - Team X; Shot Attempt - Team X (wide, on goal - save, on goal - goal); Penalty - Team X (minor (slashing), major (checking from behind))). Whoever is winning at the end of those 100 plays is declared the winner. If it ends tied, then the simulation is run again, and whoever scores the first goal wins (in OT of course).

    After the conference tournament games are simulated, we will input that data into a Pairwise Calculator, and determine who advances to the NCAA Tournament. For those of you who remember the Top 100 Tournament simulations, I anticipate doing a similar writeup for the NCAA Tournament games. For the Conference Tournament games, I will probably just post the results, with perhaps some of the key information.

    Anyway, I thought this would be a little bit of fun for us on this forum after an extremely disappointing end to the 2019-2020 season. Enjoy!
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  • #2
    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Tonight's Simulated Games:

    AHA Tournament
    Bentley @ AIC - Game 1
    Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 1
    Air Force @ RIT - Game 1
    Niagara @ Army - Game 1

    ECAC Tournament
    Princeton @ Cornell - Game 1
    Colgate @ Clarkson - Game 1
    Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 1
    Harvard @ RPI - Game 1

    Hockey East Tournament
    Providence @ Boston College - Game 1
    Connecticut @ Maine - Game 1
    Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 1
    Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 1

    WCHA Tournament
    Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 1
    Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 1

    NCHC Tournament
    St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 1
    Miami @ Minnesota Duluth - Game 1
    Colorado College @ North Dakota - Game 1
    Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 1
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

      Stuff like this is why I’m glad you’re on the forum.
      If you want to be a BADGER, just come along with me

      BRING BACK PAT RICHTER!!!


      At his graduation ceremony from the U of Minnesota, my cousin got a keychain. When asked what UW gave her for graduation, my sister said, "A degree from a University that matters."

      Canned music is a pathetic waste of your time.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
        Tonight's Simulated Games:

        AHA Tournament
        Bentley @ AIC - Game 1
        Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 1
        Air Force @ RIT - Game 1
        Niagara @ Army - Game 1

        ECAC Tournament
        Princeton @ Cornell - Game 1
        Colgate @ Clarkson - Game 1
        Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 1
        Harvard @ RPI - Game 1

        Hockey East Tournament
        Providence @ Boston College - Game 1
        Connecticut @ Maine - Game 1
        Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 1
        Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 1

        WCHA Tournament
        Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 1
        Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 1

        NCHC Tournament
        St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 1
        Miami @ Minnesota Duluth - Game 1
        Colorado College @ North Dakota - Game 1
        Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 1
        Oooh, are you going to simulate each game on the date it would have normally been played? If so, nice touch. I'm also curious if this simulator is public or not, because if it is I'd love to play around with it myself a little bit.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

          Following this thread.
          “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

          Live Radio from 100.3

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          • #6
            Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

            Also following.
            Facebook: bcowles920 Instagram: missthundercat01
            "One word frees us from the weight and pain of this life. That word is love."- Socrates
            Patreon for exclusive writing content
            Adventures With Amber Marie

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            • #7
              Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

              Excellent .....looking forward to it.
              I believe in equality of effort. In life, in hockey in everything.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                Originally posted by amkirby10 View Post
                Oooh, are you going to simulate each game on the date it would have normally been played? If so, nice touch. I'm also curious if this simulator is public or not, because if it is I'd love to play around with it myself a little bit.
                The plan is to simulate the season as it would have happened...with the exception of the Robert Morris/Sacred Heart series, which I believe was set to start last night. So, tomorrow night will be Game 2 of the AHA/ECAC/HEA/WCHA/NCHC Tournaments, as well as the Minnesota-Penn State game. Sunday will be Game 3 (if necessary) of the AHA/ECAC/HEA/WCHA/NCHC Tournaments, as well as the Michigan-Ohio State game.

                As for the simulator, it is a creation of College Hockey Weekly, a website that was around for a few years at the early-to-mid part of the last decade (and with which I was affiliated). The simulator was developed for their, never completed, Top 100 Tournament, which was a tournament that featured the Top 100 College Hockey Teams of the NCAA Tournament area, according to my formula. Long story short, they have allowed me to use the simulator for certain purposes (such as this). At the moment it is not public, but I will reach out to the CHW guys to see if they are okay with me sending it out.
                North Dakota
                National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                  A truly outstanding response to the current crisis. I will definitely be following this thread!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                    This will be great! Thanks!
                    Originally posted by mtu_huskies
                    "We are not too far away from a national championship," said (John) Scott.
                    Boosh Factor 4

                    Originally posted by Brent Hoven
                    Yeah, but you're my favorite hag.

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                    • #11
                      Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                      How soon do you knock Cornell out?
                      Originally posted by mookie1995
                      bc is superior to bu in nearly everything. while it is sad that it has come to it, it's the truth. if bu doesn't like it, improve.
                      Rep from Hokydad -"and your an old never been piece of ****"

                      Originally Posted by Dirty
                      Why is anyone surprised that Old Pio is acting like a grumpy old f^ck? He is a grumpy old f^ck.

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                      • #12
                        Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                        Originally posted by theprofromdover View Post
                        How soon do you knock Cornell out?


                        To be fair, the simulator has not simulated all of the games. Today, it will simulate the games that were set to be played today. Tomorrow, it will simulate the games that were set to be played tomorrow, and so on. That being said, given that Cornell is a lock to the make the NCAA Tournament, the earliest they would be knocked out would be in a couple weeks. Or they could be alive until the very end. Stay tuned!
                        North Dakota
                        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                          Very needed right now! This will help those of us feeling withdrawal symptoms from the shortened season. Thank you. If you need assistance with the pairwise calculator let me know.

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                          • #14
                            Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                            Thank you. Great idea!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

                              I'd even watch a webstream of the server chewing on all the data.

                              Thanks for the effort.

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