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Thread: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

  1. #1

    2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    As we all have heard by now, the remainder of the 2019-2020 college hockey season has been cancelled. However, as some of you may remember, the guys at College Hockey Weekly had put together a simulator that can be used to play out the remainder of the 2019-2020 postseason, including the NCAA Tournament. To that end, I have started imputing all the data required by the simulator, and I should be able to start getting "results" for the conference tournament games here shortly. For those interested in fighting the world of boredom left in the wake of the cancellation of the rest of the college hockey season this year, this thread will serve as a way to play a game of "What If."

    As a primer, the CHW simulator uses KRACH as a starting point, and then factors in the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses and generates a series of 100 plays (i.e. Faceoff won - Team X; Shot Attempt - Team X (wide, on goal - save, on goal - goal); Penalty - Team X (minor (slashing), major (checking from behind))). Whoever is winning at the end of those 100 plays is declared the winner. If it ends tied, then the simulation is run again, and whoever scores the first goal wins (in OT of course).

    After the conference tournament games are simulated, we will input that data into a Pairwise Calculator, and determine who advances to the NCAA Tournament. For those of you who remember the Top 100 Tournament simulations, I anticipate doing a similar writeup for the NCAA Tournament games. For the Conference Tournament games, I will probably just post the results, with perhaps some of the key information.

    Anyway, I thought this would be a little bit of fun for us on this forum after an extremely disappointing end to the 2019-2020 season. Enjoy!
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  2. #2

    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Tonight's Simulated Games:

    AHA Tournament
    Bentley @ AIC - Game 1
    Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 1
    Air Force @ RIT - Game 1
    Niagara @ Army - Game 1

    ECAC Tournament
    Princeton @ Cornell - Game 1
    Colgate @ Clarkson - Game 1
    Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 1
    Harvard @ RPI - Game 1

    Hockey East Tournament
    Providence @ Boston College - Game 1
    Connecticut @ Maine - Game 1
    Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 1
    Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 1

    WCHA Tournament
    Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 1
    Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 1

    NCHC Tournament
    St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 1
    Miami @ Minnesota Duluth - Game 1
    Colorado College @ North Dakota - Game 1
    Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 1
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  3. #3
    Drunkard
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Stuff like this is why Iím glad youíre on the forum.

  4. #4
    University of Maine Class of 2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
    Tonight's Simulated Games:

    AHA Tournament
    Bentley @ AIC - Game 1
    Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 1
    Air Force @ RIT - Game 1
    Niagara @ Army - Game 1

    ECAC Tournament
    Princeton @ Cornell - Game 1
    Colgate @ Clarkson - Game 1
    Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 1
    Harvard @ RPI - Game 1

    Hockey East Tournament
    Providence @ Boston College - Game 1
    Connecticut @ Maine - Game 1
    Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 1
    Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 1

    WCHA Tournament
    Michigan Tech @ Minnesota State - Game 1
    Bowling Green @ Bemidji State - Game 1

    NCHC Tournament
    St. Cloud State @ Western Michigan - Game 1
    Miami @ Minnesota Duluth - Game 1
    Colorado College @ North Dakota - Game 1
    Nebraska Omaha @ Denver - Game 1
    Oooh, are you going to simulate each game on the date it would have normally been played? If so, nice touch. I'm also curious if this simulator is public or not, because if it is I'd love to play around with it myself a little bit.

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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Following this thread.

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    If Only You Knew MissThundercat's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Also following.
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Excellent .....looking forward to it.
    I believe in equality of effort. In life, in hockey in everything.

  8. #8

    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Quote Originally Posted by amkirby10 View Post
    Oooh, are you going to simulate each game on the date it would have normally been played? If so, nice touch. I'm also curious if this simulator is public or not, because if it is I'd love to play around with it myself a little bit.
    The plan is to simulate the season as it would have happened...with the exception of the Robert Morris/Sacred Heart series, which I believe was set to start last night. So, tomorrow night will be Game 2 of the AHA/ECAC/HEA/WCHA/NCHC Tournaments, as well as the Minnesota-Penn State game. Sunday will be Game 3 (if necessary) of the AHA/ECAC/HEA/WCHA/NCHC Tournaments, as well as the Michigan-Ohio State game.

    As for the simulator, it is a creation of College Hockey Weekly, a website that was around for a few years at the early-to-mid part of the last decade (and with which I was affiliated). The simulator was developed for their, never completed, Top 100 Tournament, which was a tournament that featured the Top 100 College Hockey Teams of the NCAA Tournament area, according to my formula. Long story short, they have allowed me to use the simulator for certain purposes (such as this). At the moment it is not public, but I will reach out to the CHW guys to see if they are okay with me sending it out.
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    A truly outstanding response to the current crisis. I will definitely be following this thread!

  10. #10
    Veteran huskyfan's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    This will be great! Thanks!
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    The Original Dope Detector theprofromdover's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    How soon do you knock Cornell out?
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  12. #12

    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Quote Originally Posted by theprofromdover View Post
    How soon do you knock Cornell out?


    To be fair, the simulator has not simulated all of the games. Today, it will simulate the games that were set to be played today. Tomorrow, it will simulate the games that were set to be played tomorrow, and so on. That being said, given that Cornell is a lock to the make the NCAA Tournament, the earliest they would be knocked out would be in a couple weeks. Or they could be alive until the very end. Stay tuned!
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  13. #13
    Never Forget!
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Very needed right now! This will help those of us feeling withdrawal symptoms from the shortened season. Thank you. If you need assistance with the pairwise calculator let me know.

  14. #14
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Thank you. Great idea!

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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    I'd even watch a webstream of the server chewing on all the data.

    Thanks for the effort.

  16. #16

    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Results expected here shortly for some of the Atlantic Hockey and ECAC Tournament matchups!
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  17. #17
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Following. I'm back.
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    Well, I'm going to do a farewell tour of upstate New York, hellholes like Plattsburgh. Fred Armisen as Gov. Paterson

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  18. #18
    Lt. J. Isaac Powers, Starfleet
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    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    I feel like this will only rub salt in the wounds of those who could have won...

    (But of course I'm following.)


    Powers &8^]

  19. #19

    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Atlantic Hockey Quarterfinals

    Bentley @ AIC - Game 1:
    The Yellow Jackets came out strong in Game 1 of their Quarterfinal Matchup with the Falcons, taking a 2-0 lead through 20 minutes behind a pair of goals from Jared Pike. Senior netminder Zackarias Skog kept AIC in front in the middle stanza, stopping all 10 shots on goal faced. Falcon goalie Aiden Pelino was equally impressive in the second period, posting a zero to keep Bentley within striking distance heading into the third. Falcon forward Jakov Novak blistered a wrister past Skog midway through the third frame to pull Bentley within a goal, but the Yellow Jackets held strong, and a Joel Kucur blast from the far circles gave AIC their two-goal lead back with just under 5 to play. AIC potted an empty-netter in the final minute to capture a 4-1 victory, and a 1-0 series lead.

    Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart - Game 1:
    Bobby Mo struck early in this contest, as Junior Forward Nick Prkusic got the Colonials on the board early in the first period. Unfortunately for RMU, it would not last long. Austin McIlmurray tied the game on a powerplay goal midway through the first, and James Cotton potted another to give Sacred Heart a 2-1 lead after twenty minutes of play. The Pioneers continued the onslaught in the second period, scoring three goals, including another from McIlmurray with the man advantage. Robert Morris had a glorious opportunity at the end of the second period following back-to-back minors by Mike Lee (Roughing) and Austin Magera (Tripping) to give the Colonials a 5x3. However, Josh Benson stood tall between the pipes for Sacred Heart, and the Pioneers led 5-1 after two. Sacred Heart and Robert Morris skated to a scoreless third period, to give Sacred Heart a 1-0 lead in the series.

    Air Force @ RIT - Game 1:
    A goaltenders dual broke out in upstate New York this evening, as the Tigers and Falcons were unable to light the lamp for nearly 45 minutes. RIT Junior Netminder Logan Drackett and Air Force Sophomore Goalie Alex Schilling kept the skaters off the boards in the first two periods, despite a bevy of shots on goal. Through the first two stanzas, RIT launched 23 shots on goal, while Air Force lobbed 20 on Drackett. Finally, just over four minutes into the final frame, RIT forward Kobe Walker's wrister snuck past Schilling to put the Tigers up 1-0. Air Force stormed back and tallied a powerplay goal just three minutes later on Brandon Koch's laser from the point. The two squads battled over the final minutes of regulation, and with just over two minutes to play, Falcon Brady Tomlak ripped a one-timer from the near circle off the crossbar, which ricocheted to Trevor Stone, who buried the puck into the back of the net to give Air Force a 2-1 advantage. The Tigers swarmed the net in the final 120 seconds, but were unable to notch the equalizer. Air Force takes Game 1 of this series 2-1!

    Niagara @ Army - Game 1:
    It was a disappointing night for the man in-between the pipes for Niagara, Freshman Chad Veltri, as he was unable to make it to the first intermission. Army dominated Niagara from the puck drop, scoring three times in a six minute span in the middle of the first period, and then added a fourth to bounce Veltri from the pipes with just over a minute to play in the opening frame. The Black Knights continued to control the game in the middle stanza, a notched a fifth goal, Eric Butte's second of the game, to give Army a commanding 5-0 lead heading into the third period. The Purple Eagles were able to get on the board a few minute into the third, on a tremendous individual effort from Jack Billings, who caught Army blueliner Jack Zielinski flat-footed, and then ripped a wrister past Army Goalie Trevin Kozlowski's outstretched glove to put Niagara on the board. That was the end of the scoring, as Army held on for a 5-1 victory in Game 1 of this series.

    ECAC Quarterfinals

    Princeton @ Cornell - Game 1:
    The Big Red took it to the Tigers in the opening game of this Best-of-Three series. Cornell used two goals in the opening frame, from Cam Donaldson and Morgan Barron respectively, to take a 2-0 lead, and that would be all the Big Red's Junior Netminder Matthew Galajda would need. Galajda stymied Princeton throughout the night, posting a 26-save shutout. Cornell added to their lead midway through the second on a Matt Steinburg tip of an Alex Green blast that beat Princeton goalie Jeremie Forget to give the Big Red a 3-0 lead through two periods. Both sides skated to a scoreless third period, and Cornell walked out of the rink with a 1-0 series lead.

    Colgate @ Clarkson - Game 1:
    Some nights, an individual can take over a game all by himself. Tonight, that was Clarkson star forward Josh Dunne. Dunne lit the lamp early in this one, scoring on a rebound at the top of the crease to put Clarkson up 1-0 early in the first. Dunne was not done. The Sophomore Sensation scored again late in the first, and completed the natural hat trick four minutes into the second period to give the Golden Knights a 3-0 advantage. However, Colgate stormed back, as Senior Ben Sharf notched his first goal of this series to get the Red Raiders on the scoreboard, and Paul McAvoy scored a powerplay tally in the final minute of the second period to pull Colgate back within one goal entering the final frame. Dunne would strike again, this time with a helper on Connor McCarthy's blast from the top of the far circle that gave Clarkson a 4-2 lead. That would be all Clarkson keeper Frank Marotte would need, as he shut down Colgate the rest of the way, as Clarkson held on for a 4-2 victory in game 1 of the series.

    Yale @ Quinnipiac - Game 1:
    The Battle for Connecticut waged on this evening, as the Bobcats and the Bulldogs waged an epic thriller. A scoreless opening stanza gave way to a second period circus. Yale Forward Luke Stevens found the back of the net first, about three minutes into the second, to give the Bulldogs a one-goal lead. It would not last long. On the powerplay, Quinnipiac's Nick Jermain lit the lamp, and just thirty seconds later, the Bobcats' Odeen Tufto slid a backhand past Yale goalie Corbin Kaczperski to give Quinnipiac a 2-1 lead. The Bobcats added a third goal midway through the game, on a Karlis Cukste wrister from the point. Yale would storm back, when Kevin O'Neil capitalized on his hard work in front of the net, roofing a rebound over the outstretched leg of Quinnipiac's netminder Petruzzelli to put the Bulldogs within a goal. The Bulldogs tied the game at 3 just after the start of the third, when Graham Lilllibridge found the net on what appeared to be a harmless wrister from the near boards. The game remained knotted through the end of regulation, and Yale and Quinnipiac headed to overtime. The OT session did not last long, as Alex Whelan sent the Quinnipiac faithful home happy on a partial breakaway after a lazy line change. The goal gave Quinnipiac the victory, and a 1-0 series lead.

    Harvard @ RPI - Game 1:
    Red-hot Rensselaer continued their hot streak early in Game 1, as the Engineers scored twice in the first twenty minutes, on goals by Ture Linden and Todd Burgess. RPI continued their domination over Harvard in the second period. After Harvard squandered back-to-back powerplays, the Engineers used the momentum and the lift from the home crowd to generate a powerplay of their own. This time, RPI took advantage, as Burgess knotted his second goal of the game on a beautifully-set one-timer from the near circle that flew past Harvard's Mitchell Gibson. Harvard nearly got back within two, when Colton Kerfoot had a breakaway, but RPI's Owen Savory sniffed out Kerfoot's deke to the backhand, and kept the Engineers three-goal lead. In the final stanza, the squads traded goals, as RPI got a tally from Patrick Polino, and the Crimson finally got on the scoreboard with about five minutes to go on a goal from R.J. Murphy. However, that is where the scoring would end in this one, as RPI earned a 4-1 win, and a 1-0 lead in the series.
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  20. #20

    Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

    Hockey East results coming in now...

    Hockey East Quarterfinals

    Providence @ Boston College - Game 1:
    The Eagles and Friars skated to a classic tonight in Boston (well, sort of). BC took an early lead midway through the first period on a powerplay tally by Senior blue line Ben Finkelstein. PC responded towards the end of the opening frame, as Jack Dugan found Tyce Thompson in the slot, who roofed a wrister just past Spencer Knight's blocker to knot the score a 1-1 after twenty minutes. The Friars took the lead early in the second, as Dugan notched another assist, this time lifting a beautiful cross ice pass to Michael Callahan, who ripped a one-timer from the point that found the back of the net. The Eagles responded quickly, tying the game just over two minutes later when Matt Boldy found the net from the near circle. While the game remained tied for the rest of the second and most of the third, both sides had numerous opportunities to break the deadlock. However, it would be BC Junior Logan Hutsko that would break the tie with just over three minutes to go in the third. BC would add an empty netter in the waning seconds, and BC escaped with a 4-2 victory to claim Game 1 of this series.

    Connecticut @ Maine - Game 1:
    Sometimes, it just does not matter what you do on offense...the opposing goalie is simply up to the task. That was the story tonight from Alfond, as Maine Netminder Jeremy Swayman stunned the visiting Huskies time after time. The first stanza belonged to Swayman, who stopped all 15 of Connecticut's shots on goal, including a glorious save on a breakaway attempt by UCONN's Carter Turnbull. Maine broke the 0-0 stalemate early in the second, when Mitchell Fossier squeezed a wrister through the five hole of Connecticut goalie Tomas Vomacka. That would be all Swayman would need. Maine added an insurance goal midway through the third period when JD Greenway's wrister from the blueline bounced off UCONN Defensemen Jake Flynn and on to the stick of Patrick Shea, who wasted little time burying the puck to give the Black Bears a 2-0 lead. Swayman would stop all 31 shots from UCONN on the evening, en route to giving Maine a 2-0 victory and a 1-0 lead in this Quarterfinal series.

    Northeastern @ Massachusetts - Game 1:
    The visiting Huskies discovered why the hype surrounding the Minutemen's John Leonard is real. Leonard dominated the evening, scoring the game's first goal in the final minute of the first period to give UMASS a 1-0 lead after twenty minutes of play. Leonard then assisted on Zac Jones' powerplay tally midway through the second period, which gave the Minutemen a 2-0 advantage. Northeastern got back within a goal late in the second, when Matt Filipe's wrister snuck past Junior Netminder Matt Murray. That would be as close as Northeastern would get this evening. Leonard notched another goal early in the third to regain Massachusetts' two-goal lead, and assisted on the Minutemen's fourth goal midway through the final frame. Murray stoned the Huskies the rest of the way, and Massachusetts delivered a 4-1 victory for the home crowd.

    Boston University @ Massachusetts Lowell - Game 1:
    The Riverhawks and the Terriers skated to a scoreless opening frame tonight at the Tsongas Center. It looked like the score was going to remain scoreless going into the final twenty, until BU's Jake Wise slapped home a one-timer from the far circle on a beautiful feed from Trevor Zegras with just under 30 seconds left in the middle stanza. BU would add to that lead early in the third period, when Zegras potted his own goal, after capturing a loose puck behind the net and executing a perfect wraparound that slid underneath a sliding Tyler Wall. Lowell rebounded from the two-goal deficit, scoring twice in a span of 90 seconds midway through the third period, on goals by Matt Brown and Chase Blackmun. The game remained 2-2 through the rest of regulation. Overtime started with a bang, as Lowell Freshman Zach Kaiser was called for a five-minute checking from behind major. BU was unable to score with the man advantage, giving Lowell a boost. The Riverhawks had several chances in the following minutes, but were continually denied by Senior Netminder Sam Tucker. Finally, as the first overtime trickled to an end, Patrick Curry decided that a second overtime was unnecessary. On a beautiful play, Curry won a puck-battle in the far corner, skated to the bottom of the far circle, and sniped a wrister in the top corner to give BU the 3-2 victory, and a 1-0 series lead.
    Last edited by Fighting Sioux 23; 03-13-2020 at 08:08 PM.
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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