Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

Merkel says to expect up to 70% of German population to be infected

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

The only question I have regarding steps like this is, why 250? Is 249 ok?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuum_fallacy

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

Oof, 3 TSA agents at San Jose airport in CA test positive

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuum_fallacy

I knew that would be coming. But it still doesn't address the point.

I understand taking a step like certain conferences have where they say we're not going to allow fans to attend the game. Doesn't matter if it's 1100 at Clarkson or 2000 at Cornell.

But just randomly picking a number is stupid, for a couple of reasons. First, there doesn't appear to be any sort of scientific evidence behind it. Second, it creates a false sense of security if you attend an event of less than 250 people, security that may in fact not exist.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I knew that would be coming. But it still doesn't address the point.

I understand taking a step like certain conferences have where they say we're not going to allow fans to attend the game. Doesn't matter if it's 1100 at Clarkson or 2000 at Cornell.

But just randomly picking a number is stupid, for a couple of reasons. First, there doesn't appear to be any sort of scientific evidence behind it. Second, it creates a false sense of security if you attend an event of less than 250 people, security that may in fact not exist.

It’s dumb, I guess they gotta picks number.
My school sent a note to self quarantine if you visited SK, China, Iran or Italy. But you don’t have to self quarantine if you just transited one of their airports. Unless you were in the airport for over 24 hours.
24 hours? Either it‘a safe or it’s not

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

I knew that would be coming. But it still doesn't address the point.

I understand taking a step like certain conferences have where they say we're not going to allow fans to attend the game. Doesn't matter if it's 1100 at Clarkson or 2000 at Cornell.

But just randomly picking a number is stupid, for a couple of reasons. First, there doesn't appear to be any sort of scientific evidence behind it. Second, it creates a false sense of security if you attend an event of less than 250 people, security that may in fact not exist.

It's also not really Continuum Fallacy, I couldn't find the one I want.

The Continuum Fallacy is lack of precision. The one I'm looking for is criticism of precision. It's the Thumper fallacy that if nobody can tell the exact second a fetus becomes a baby then it's always a baby. It's related to Zeno's paradoxes.

Anyway, I do not agree with your larger point. You gotta pick a number to have an actionable policy. Your argument is basically saying speed limits are dangerous because they give you a false sense of security if you are driving within them. That's not an argument to not have a speed limit.

I agree it would be great if there was research about social distance and infection and indeed there probably is. There would be federal guidelines but the federal government is currently run by a bunch of petty thieves who are third grade drop outs. So, we do what we can, and that is better than nothing. You want better? Vote for smarter people next time.

[aparch]

... Second, it creates a false sense of security if you attend an event of less than 250 people, security that may in fact not exist.

The problem is that people who assume that small gatherings like 250 are safe from viruses is laughable.

All this does is lessen the impact of the spread. Think of it as putting fire barrier walls between town homes in a sub division. The whole complex is going to burn, but the spread of the fire is going to be slowed / not as extensive with the fire barriers giving the fire department time to get on site and respond.



Unfortunately, Trump is helming the fire department bucket brigade.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

Hey man, if only every fire brigade were run by a businessman! Always gotta be filing for bankruptcy and making a profit

[unofan]

The only question I have regarding steps like this is, why 250? Is 249 ok?

My guess is 250 still allows things like grocery stores to remain open while basically ending all actual gatherings.

[leswp1]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

My first reaction is not that the number is a problem but how much space is allowed. If you have a large room and 250 people then OK. If it is a cozy little room- not so much.
People are either cautious or not- it isn't the # but the amount of risk they are willing to float.

It is really weird to see this play out just like they taught us in school years ago. It is also sad that what I predicted at the beginning is playing out like a playbook- Every state for itself with no abioity to depend on the Feds. States with robust public health systems are reacting with directives that fly in the face of opposition from the Orange Menace. It will get to critical mass where they all end up doing something but the ones who are late to the game are least prepared for the consequences of waiting.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

The problem is that people who assume that small gatherings like 250 are safe from viruses is laughable.

All this does is lessen the impact of the spread. Think of it as putting fire barrier walls between a sub division of town homes. The whole complex is going to burn, but the spread of the fire is going to be slowed / not as extensive with the fire barriers giving the fire department time to get on site and respond.



Unfortunately, Trump is helming the fire department bucket brigade.

I know a city and regional planner guy who told me "fire jumper" distances in those developments allow them to better predict where the fire will move, allowing them to allocate resources to direct the path. House A is placed deliberately closer to House B in order to ensure the path isn't random, thus saving the other houses by pulling the fire to House B.



Fig 1. Firejumper development. Fun coincidental fact: Wuhan, China

[jerphisch]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

But just randomly picking a number is stupid,

So is saying that Trump hasn't actually done any real damage...

[leswp1]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

You have to pick some number to give guidance. Almost all of the guidelines start with recommending no one gather at all but if they feel the need then no more than....

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19 2020 part the second: Wash Your Hands

A French town gathers thousands for people to dress like smurfs for a smurf festival.
Mayor defends it by saying they needed to feel alive

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...avirus-france/

[aparch]

I know a city and regional planner guy who told me "fire jumper" distances in those developments allow them to better predict where the fire will move, allowing them to allocate resources to direct the path. House A is placed deliberately closer to House B in order to ensure the path isn't random, thus saving the other houses by pulling the fire to House B.

Thankfully, US subdivisions arent built as massive as that example from Wuhan, but yes, there is certain reasons that layout is done that way. This is (I assume) more of a design concern in California/Southwest where wildfires can race through communities.

Out east, my example would be the row homes adjoining each other. Generally a two hour fire rated wall separates those homes to buy some time.

Either way, that's all this arbitrary number is doing is buying time to slow the spread, to "lessen the curve" on emergency resources (I believe is the term I've seen, right Les?).