Originally posted by DrDemento
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RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by DrDemento View PostI am wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 who do not catch anything at all but simply just die from something else? After all, 80 is considerably over the average life span in many places. (Yes i know, once you reach that age your life expectancy is at least another 5-10 years!)
The article from which the 15% figure is drawn doesn't mention whether it is the probability of dying within a one-year span or within 14 days from the date of diagnosis, but I suspect it is the latter. To make some simplifying assumptions which probably do not attain the standard of being actuarially rigorous, let's say the normal probability of dying within one year is 11% (about halfway between 6 and 16%). Then the normal probability of dying within two weeks would be about 2/52 times 11%, or about 0.42%. Compared to 0.42%, 15% is pretty steep.
I know - Ralph promised there would be no math.
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
We got two votes in the USCHO poll, the same as last week. https://www.uscho.com/rankings/d-i-m...ll/2020-03-09/
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by Ralph Baer View PostIf we keep up this posting rate and defeat Harvard this weekend, then sometime next week, we can start
RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part IV: Mr. Smith Goes to Lake PlacidWithout A Peer - Full coverage of RPI Men's and Women's Hockey, with a twist of lemon.
Without A Peer live tweets every RPI hockey game, men's and women's. Follow us at @without_a_peer on Twitter.
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by realet View PostRPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part IV: Mr. Smith and only Mr. Smith Goes to Lake Placid
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by Ralph Baer View PostFWIW,
There have just been announcements that the RPI women's team have received commitments from two sisters for 2020 and for 2021. They are dual US-Japan citizens. Another flag?Uncle Mickey: July 23, 1950-July 22, 2003
WRPI, 91.5 FM...usually color commentary.
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Originally posted by DrDemento View PostI am wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 who do not catch anything at all but simply just die from something else? After all, 80 is considerably over the average life span in many places. (Yes i know, once you reach that age your life expectancy is at least another 5-10 years!)
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Originally posted by 25+years View PostWe won’t know how deadly this illness is until we can test everyone who should be tested. What we have learned to date from other parts of the world is the death rate from Covid is far higher than the flu. What is most troubling is people are drawing conclusions from the numbers they are being given (22 deaths with like 674 cases) and not from the actual so far unknown numbers. The biggest tragedy here would be to think this is not such a big deal and then have it become a big deal. After the fact addressing of this is not the strategy that should be employed . If nothing happens everyone will scream we shouldn’t have closed down the games to fans. If fans are let in and the virus spreads, everyone will scream why did you let fans in. No win situation .""Ralph is the Chuck Norris of this board. Ralph doesnt sleep he just waits." - fishcore12
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by 25+years View PostWe won’t know how deadly this illness is until we can test everyone who should be tested. What we have learned to date from other parts of the world is the death rate from Covid is far higher than the flu. What is most troubling is people are drawing conclusions from the numbers they are being given (22 deaths with like 674 cases) and not from the actual so far unknown numbers. The biggest tragedy here would be to think this is not such a big deal and then have it become a big deal. After the fact addressing of this is not the strategy that should be employed . If nothing happens everyone will scream we shouldn’t have closed down the games to fans. If fans are let in and the virus spreads, everyone will scream why did you let fans in. No win situation .
Now back to hockey -we are at least listed as a slight 48% to 42% favorite for game 1 against Harvard and a predicted score of 3-3 being most probable. we are not listed though as the favorite to win the series.Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by Wicked Slappaahs View PostIf reports are to be believed, many of the people who have the bug may not know they have it, so how do you go about defining "who should be tested "Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by Waite21 View PostStandard actuarial mortality tables express the probability of dying within a one-year span. According to the Social Security actuarial table for 2016, the probability that a male age 80 will die within one year is 5.8%. This goes up to 9.7% by age 85 and 16.4% by age 90, with female rates being somewhat lower. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
The article from which the 15% figure is drawn doesn't mention whether it is the probability of dying within a one-year span or within 14 days from the date of diagnosis, but I suspect it is the latter. To make some simplifying assumptions which probably do not attain the standard of being actuarially rigorous, let's say the normal probability of dying within one year is 11% (about halfway between 6 and 16%). Then the normal probability of dying within two weeks would be about 2/52 times 11%, or about 0.42%. Compared to 0.42%, 15% is pretty steep.
I know - Ralph promised there would be no math.Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
I want to personally invite all the RPI fans who can't see any hockey in person this weekend to follow me to Springfield, Mass for the 1 pm AIC hockey games. It's a paltry 1 hour 30 minutes from HVCC to the free Casino parking lot. You can make it home before the RPI game, or you can stay for the Casino or even for the AHL game at 7pm.
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!
Originally posted by DrDemento View PostNow back to hockey -we are at least listed as a slight 48% to 42% favorite for game 1 against Harvard and a predicted score of 3-3 being most probable. we are not listed though as the favorite to win the series.
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