Covid 19

[johnk]

I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

That being said--
--I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
--From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
--The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
--I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
--I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
--Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But we should not be whipping ourselves into a self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, It time we stopped fearing fear.

Couldn't have said it better. We have had recent seasons with 50,000 plus deaths due to influenza. Outrageous.

[chickod]

Re: Covid 19

I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

That being said--
--I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
--From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
--The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
--I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
--I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to be (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
--Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But what we should NOT be doing is whipping ourselves into an ever accelerating, self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, it's time we stopped fearing fear.

+10000

[Lost_Husky]

Re: Covid 19

I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

That being said--
--I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
--From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
--The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
--I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
--I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to be (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
--Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But what we should NOT be doing is whipping ourselves into an ever accelerating, self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, it's time we stopped fearing fear.

While I agree with many of your points and think we are weeks away from "peek" we has some time to prepare by looking at what China, Italy, Iran, and South Korea have done that has worked and what hasn't worked. Preparation, planning, good hygiene, restricted infected person movement work, denial, panic, and fake cures (cough cough Jim Bakker) not so much.

Reports out of northern Italian are hospitals are overflowing to the point where they are turning patients away, selecting who gets what treatments due to limited resources. Health care workers are falling ill and those that are healthy are swamped and exhausted.

[Bonin21]

Re: Covid 19

Seems like the older people, the ones most likely to have major problems (at a much higher rate when you get it than the flu), are the ones that understand it the least.

[Split-N]

Re: Covid 19

...China, Italy, Iran, and South Korea have done that has worked and what hasn't worked...panic, and fake cures (cough cough Jim Bakker) not so much...Reports out of northern Italian are hospitals are overflowing to the point where they are turning patients away, selecting who gets what treatments due to limited resources. Health care workers are falling ill and those that are healthy are swamped and exhausted.

None of those countries have ever been paragons of public health (especially Iran) and South Korea (lived there once upon a time). The northern Italian hospitals are being overwhelmed by mass hysteria much moreso than COVID-19. Same thing will happen here if the Chicken Littles get their way.

Seems like the older people, the ones most likely to have major problems (at a much higher rate when you get it than the flu), are the ones that understand it the least.

Also the ones in the best position to have an historical perspective.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

China’s basically a third world country for all practical purposes and Italians cant follow directions so there you have it. It’ a flu without a vaccine is all it is. Use some common sense

Do you live in Minnesota?

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

That being said--
--I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
--From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
--The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
--I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
--I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to be (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
--Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But what we should NOT be doing is whipping ourselves into an ever accelerating, self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, it's time we stopped fearing fear.

The currently best understood fatality rate is on par with Spanish Flu. I can’t quite remember how that turned out.

[French Rage]

Re: Covid 19

The currently best understood fatality rate is on par with Spanish Flu. I can’t quite remember how that turned out.

Muy caliente.

[Wicked Slappaahs]

Re: Covid 19

The currently best understood fatality rate is on par with Spanish Flu. I can’t quite remember how that turned out.

Well I'd be interested in how you came to that conclusion seeing as how NO ONE knows how many people are walking around with little or no symptoms. Without knowing how many people actually contract it, any mortality rate statement is a guess... at best.

[ticapnews]

Re: Covid 19

Mortality rates

SARS: 9.6%
MERS: 34.3%
Covid-19: 3.4%

Phew. The rate is much lower than the others. But just for gits and shiggles, let's look at the number of cases.

SARS: 8,098
MERS: 2,519
Covid-19: 111,000+ and growing exponentially.

That seems bad....

[Friend_of_BU_Hockey]

Re: Covid 19

I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

That being said--
--I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
--From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
--The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
--I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
--I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to be (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
--Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But what we should NOT be doing is whipping ourselves into an ever accelerating, self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, it's time we stopped fearing fear.

Thank you for this post. Exercise practical caution & common sense.

[ticapnews]

Re: Covid 19

In recent days doctors battling the outbreak compared it to "fighting a war" and "worse than a bomb" but doctors are prone to hyperbole and causing needless panic so I wouldn't be too concerned.

[LTsatch]

Re: Covid 19

Mortality rates

SARS: 9.6%
MERS: 34.3%
Covid-19: 3.4%

Phew. The rate is much lower than the others. But just for gits and shiggles, let's look at the number of cases.

SARS: 8,098
MERS: 2,519
Covid-19: 111,000+ and growing exponentially.

That seems bad....

You left out the worst one. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Covid 19

You left out the worst one. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

And that was with a competent executive branch who let the scientists and doctors run the response. .

[ticapnews]

Re: Covid 19

You left out the worst one. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

I was looking at global numbers, with a range of estimated infected from 700M-1.4B which was a *little* broad for me. There were an estimated 150,000-575,000 deaths.