Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Covid 19

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: Covid 19

    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    The currently best understood fatality rate is on par with Spanish Flu. I can’t quite remember how that turned out.
    The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of about 3% and caused 20-40 million deaths worldwide. At least double the number of soldiers killed in World War I.

    Comment


    • Re: Covid 19

      Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
      The Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of about 3% and caused 20-40 million deaths worldwide. At least double the number of soldiers killed in World War I.
      Recently, someone did a very interesting study on the timing of the end of WWI and how that caused the Spanish Flu to spread. In the study, it said had the war lasted one year longer, overall it would have saved lives because way less people would have died from the flu, even if more people died from the extra year of the war.
      Russell Jaslow
      [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
      U.S. College Hockey Online

      Comment


      • Re: Covid 19

        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
        Do you live in Minnesota?
        D-mn it I would have bet this was going to be a NoDak joke.
        Cornell University
        National Champion 1967, 1970
        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

        Comment


        • Re: Covid 19

          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
          D-mn it I would have bet this was going to be a NoDak joke.
          Lol. I’m just hoping he’s not from Minnesota.
          Code:
          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment


          • Re: Covid 19

            You can't look at a flat death rate. You need to take into consideration death rate based on age and death rate based on having other complications when communicating the message to the public on who is most at risk, etc. A flat death rate is a worthless stat.

            Comment


            • Re: Covid 19

              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
              Lol. I’m just hoping he’s not from Minnesota.
              Boy did I read your OP wrong.
              Cornell University
              National Champion 1967, 1970
              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

              Comment


              • Re: Covid 19

                Originally posted by Split-N View Post
                I know I'm going to get pilloried (at least from some quarters) for what I'm about to post but I'm going to post it anyway. But first some disclaimers--

                1) I am not an epidemiologist or medical analytics wonk. (And AFAIK, nobody else on this board is either)
                2) I'm north of 70yo. (And will get even further north of that in a matter of days.)

                That being said--
                --I get it that there's a new strain of virus in the wild and that it spreads easily
                --From what I've been able to digest, the effects are mild to moderate and run their course in a week to ten days
                --The fatality rate is relatively low compared with other outbreaks and affect primarily people in my own age range, especially those with pre-existing respiratory or immune issues
                --I live in a big city and continue to move about freely; I went to a college basketball game last night and sat in the midst of other humanoids; I'm observing that the restaurants and bars remain relatively crowded (and I've been a part of some of those crowds); ditto for the buses and subway trains.
                --I have not been struck down, nor do I expect to be (at least not from Coronawhatever). Maybe I'm living on the edge and it will yet get me. (If so, I'll put in a good word for everyone here once I get to the other side.) But I refuse to stop daily living.
                --Oh, and I do wash my hands multiple times a day. But I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

                Summary (personal opinions only): Yes, something's happening out there, yes, we should be concerned, and yes, we should be developing and implementing countermeasures with all due haste. But what we should NOT be doing is whipping ourselves into an ever accelerating, self-perpetuating fear frenzy. To try and put this into some personal perspective, COVID-19, at least so far, doesn't even begin to compare with other scary outbreaks that have occurred in my life experience. So let's get a grip. This is not the Black Plague. We will not be having Tyvek-suited people pushing carts through the streets and calling, "Bring Out Your Dead!"

                To loosely paraphrase Franklin D. Roosevelt, it's time we stopped fearing fear.
                Not an actual expert but recently retired from medicine and have to disabuse you of some of your assumptions-
                -the strain of virus is new- that means there is no herd immunity or known way to get someone immunity
                -the effects are mild to moderate for a percentage of people. Those who get sicker are more acutely ill and the period of acute illness lasts much longer than the usual flu. If you get very ill with flu avg of 7 days before you are not critical, this 14 days.
                -fatality rate is affected by not just pre-existing conditions/age but the state of the healthcare system. Wuhan had way more deaths because they were overwhelmed and unable to care for all those who were ill. Our current system is running at about 95-97% capacity for many areas due to flu. Those who are ill with COVID19 need respiratory support. They needed it approx twice as long as usual for flu- that means if they need a respirator the turnaround is slow and the number of respirators not enough. (Washington has requested backups and the gov't sent less than requested).
                -The comparison of this to flu is a false comparison. We have some herd immunity to flu- some strains people have had previous exposure to similar strains, people are immunized, even if the vaccine is not completely on point it conveys some protection. If you weren't smart enough to be immunized but those around you were then you are somewhat protected. The immunized are less likely to get ill. If they do get ill they are less likely to shed large amounts of virus to get you sick. We have no idea what would happen if we didn't have the firewall of vaccine for flu. (one person recently pointed this might be similar to when indigenous populations were exposed to European illnesses)
                - another factoid- they are finding people test positive and may shed virus up to 8 weeks after testing positive for the first time. That means folks who are asymptomatic may be vectors for a very, very long time. They may look fine but be the equivalent to Typhoid Mary. Taking their temperature at the airport or getting on a ship is going to yield nothing.

                Does this mean we have to go into an all out panic? No. But it does mean the only way we are going to contain spread is to decrease contact with the virus.

                Comment


                • Re: Covid 19

                  Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
                  Not an actual expert but recently retired from medicine and have to disabuse you of some of your assumptions-
                  -the strain of virus is new- that means there is no herd immunity or known way to get someone immunity
                  -the effects are mild to moderate for a percentage of people. Those who get sicker are more acutely ill and the period of acute illness lasts much longer than the usual flu. If you get very ill with flu avg of 7 days before you are not critical, this 14 days.
                  -fatality rate is affected by not just pre-existing conditions/age but the state of the healthcare system. Wuhan had way more deaths because they were overwhelmed and unable to care for all those who were ill. Our current system is running at about 95-97% capacity for many areas due to flu. Those who are ill with COVID19 need respiratory support. They needed it approx twice as long as usual for flu- that means if they need a respirator the turnaround is slow and the number of respirators not enough. (Washington has requested backups and the gov't sent less than requested).
                  -The comparison of this to flu is a false comparison. We have some herd immunity to flu- some strains people have had previous exposure to similar strains, people are immunized, even if the vaccine is not completely on point it conveys some protection. If you weren't smart enough to be immunized but those around you were then you are somewhat protected. The immunized are less likely to get ill. If they do get ill they are less likely to shed large amounts of virus to get you sick. We have no idea what would happen if we didn't have the firewall of vaccine for flu. (one person recently pointed this might be similar to when indigenous populations were exposed to European illnesses)
                  - another factoid- they are finding people test positive and may shed virus up to 8 weeks after testing positive for the first time. That means folks who are asymptomatic may be vectors for a very, very long time. They may look fine but be the equivalent to Typhoid Mary. Taking their temperature at the airport or getting on a ship is going to yield nothing.

                  Does this mean we have to go into an all out panic? No. But it does mean the only way we are going to contain spread is to decrease contact with the virus.
                  Spoil sport!
                  MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

                  It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

                  Comment


                  • Re: Covid 19

                    Coachella rescheduled until October. The Librul Media Hoax continues.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Covid 19

                      Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                      You can't look at a flat death rate. You need to take into consideration death rate based on age and death rate based on having other complications when communicating the message to the public on who is most at risk, etc. A flat death rate is a worthless stat.
                      True, but from what I have read so far the coronavirus is affecting those with respiratory illnesses and older people the hardest. According to Wikipedia the Spanish Flu hit young adults, 20-40, and especially pregnant women, the hardest (my great-uncle, age 25, died of it in Liverpool in Oct 1918).

                      As for whether or not banning large gatherings, travel, remote learning, etc., is good or bad we may never know. If the number of cases doesn't explode some of those who say it was an over-reaction will use the lack of a pandemic as 'proof' there was no need for such measures. Here in Massachusetts the number of suspected cases linked to the Biogen conference continues to grow rapidly. That was one meeting and shows how fast this virus can spread.

                      Sean
                      Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
                      Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

                      BU Hockey Games
                      BU Hockey highlights and extras
                      NCAA Hockey Financials
                      Women's Division I Longest Hockey Games
                      I need a kidney; looking for a donor

                      Comment


                      • Re: Covid 19

                        Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
                        True, but from what I have read so far the coronavirus is affecting those with respiratory illnesses and older people the hardest. According to Wikipedia the Spanish Flu hit young adults, 20-40, and especially pregnant women, the hardest (my great-uncle, age 25, died of it in Liverpool in Oct 1918).
                        And...? What are you trying to say?

                        As for whether or not banning large gatherings, travel, remote learning, etc., is good or bad we may never know. If the number of cases doesn't explode some of those who say it was an over-reaction will use the lack of a pandemic as 'proof' there was no need for such measures. Here in Massachusetts the number of suspected cases linked to the Biogen conference continues to grow rapidly. That was one meeting and shows how fast this virus can spread.
                        Fair enough. But I'd hate to say it wasn't necessary and be wrong. That sounds like a fairly big risk. I think you'd agree.

                        The Y2K bug never panned out and people still ***** about the "overreaction". It didn't pan out because of the millions of hours spent making sure it didn't happen. I'd rather have a few dotards complain about an overreaction than have 20% of those over 70 killed.
                        Code:
                        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                        Originally posted by SanTropez
                        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                        Originally posted by Kepler
                        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                        Comment


                        • Re: Covid 19

                          Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                          Spoil sport!

                          sOrry. SOrry! It is all a hoax. that was a joke. bUt in case you need me to be incohrent the hoax virus that the libruls have manufactured. they are so ef fing smart thaty convinced whole countries to shut down and various people ind their population to pretend to be sick or dead. aaaaand- they hoaxeded the stock mahket to crash until the dump said he would print more money to cover the tax breaks. (side question- when do they stop letting him play with the printing presses? when they run out of green ink?)

                          Comment


                          • Re: Covid 19

                            Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
                            True, but from what I have read so far the coronavirus is affecting those with respiratory illnesses and older people the hardest. According to Wikipedia the Spanish Flu hit young adults, 20-40, and especially pregnant women, the hardest (my great-uncle, age 25, died of it in Liverpool in Oct 1918).

                            As for whether or not banning large gatherings, travel, remote learning, etc., is good or bad we may never know. If the number of cases doesn't explode some of those who say it was an over-reaction will use the lack of a pandemic as 'proof' there was no need for such measures. Here in Massachusetts the number of suspected cases linked to the Biogen conference continues to grow rapidly. That was one meeting and shows how fast this virus can spread.

                            Sean
                            Cases as of last Thursday- <5
                            Cases as of today-92

                            Cases that were from Cogen 70
                            Travel 4
                            Under investigation 18.

                            Presser with the Governor and Public Health- there are a number that appear to have no identifiable contact (I forget the exact# but it wasn't 1or 2)

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
                              Not an actual expert but recently retired from medicine and have to disabuse you of some of your assumptions-
                              -the strain of virus is new- that means there is no herd immunity or known way to get someone immunity
                              -the effects are mild to moderate for a percentage of people. Those who get sicker are more acutely ill and the period of acute illness lasts much longer than the usual flu. If you get very ill with flu avg of 7 days before you are not critical, this 14 days.
                              -fatality rate is affected by not just pre-existing conditions/age but the state of the healthcare system. Wuhan had way more deaths because they were overwhelmed and unable to care for all those who were ill. Our current system is running at about 95-97% capacity for many areas due to flu. Those who are ill with COVID19 need respiratory support. They needed it approx twice as long as usual for flu- that means if they need a respirator the turnaround is slow and the number of respirators not enough. (Washington has requested backups and the gov't sent less than requested).
                              -The comparison of this to flu is a false comparison. We have some herd immunity to flu- some strains people have had previous exposure to similar strains, people are immunized, even if the vaccine is not completely on point it conveys some protection. If you weren't smart enough to be immunized but those around you were then you are somewhat protected. The immunized are less likely to get ill. If they do get ill they are less likely to shed large amounts of virus to get you sick. We have no idea what would happen if we didn't have the firewall of vaccine for flu. (one person recently pointed this might be similar to when indigenous populations were exposed to European illnesses)
                              - another factoid- they are finding people test positive and may shed virus up to 8 weeks after testing positive for the first time. That means folks who are asymptomatic may be vectors for a very, very long time. They may look fine but be the equivalent to Typhoid Mary. Taking their temperature at the airport or getting on a ship is going to yield nothing.

                              Does this mean we have to go into an all out panic? No. But it does mean the only way we are going to contain spread is to decrease contact with the virus.
                              Thank you.

                              Comment


                              • Re: Covid 19

                                Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
                                Cases as of last Thursday- <5
                                Cases as of today-92

                                Cases that were from Cogen 70
                                Travel 4
                                Under investigation 18.

                                Presser with the Governor and Public Health- there are a number that appear to have no identifiable contact (I forget the exact# but it wasn't 1or 2)
                                Deaths from influenza in US in 2019 - 20,000

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X