Bracketology

[johnk]

As the regular season wraps up and the conference tournaments begin the guessing game begins on who goes where for the NCAA's. As it stands now there are some interesting decisions on which will carry more weight. Bracket integrity or attendance. I went the attendance route and came up with:


Allentown
1 North Dakota
16 AIC

7 Penn St.
10 Bemidji St.

Loveland
2 Minn State
15 Maine

6 Denver
10 Ohio St.

Worcester
4 BC
14 Quinnipiac

5 UMD
12 Az State

Albany
3 Cornell
13 UMass Lowell

8 UMass
9 Clarkson

[sigx15]

Re: Bracketology

This seems like the most likely bracket. The only part I’m not sure about is where ND ends up, Allentown or Loveland

[klbaum1077]

Re: Bracketology

To me the #1 seed should be protected from play a host school in the final. I know they try and keep teams close to home if possible but as the #4 seed BC should have to fly to loveland and play the host if both teams win.

I would go this way
#1 UND in Albany
#2 Minnesota st in Worcester
#3 Cornell in Allentown
#4 BC in Loveland.
The rest go as close to chalk as you can.

[J.D.]

Re: Bracketology

I think the committee would avoid putting UND in Loveland if it meant being paired with let's say #5 overall Denver. But I don't think they would care about placing them in Allentown with #7 Penn State.

All that despite the fact UND would probably have more fans in Loveland than DU anyway.

[cetihcra]

I think the committee would avoid putting UND in Loveland if it meant being paired with let's say #5 overall Denver. But I don't think they would care about placing them in Allentown with #7 Penn State.

All that despite the fact UND would probably have more fans in Loveland than DU anyway.

Loveland is pretty much sold out already, so if ND is packing it, it’s on the secondary market.

With the current PWR, they can go straight chalk, and just swap the NE and East for attendance. I’m sure things will change, lots of games to be played.

r

[J.D.]

Re: Bracketology

I wonder if UND fans took a chance and gobbled those up. But if primarily DU fans, good for them. Hope it goes well.

[SJHovey]

Re: Bracketology

I wonder if UND fans took a chance and gobbled those up. But if primarily DU fans, good for them. Hope it goes well.

There has been nothing to speak of on the UND message board about Loveland and buying tickets. Given the past two seasons, and extremely low expectations for this season, they certainly wouldn't have bought them up when they went on sale in early November. Not sure when they sold out, but if it was before Christmas, I doubt UND fans had much of an impact.

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Bracketology

Attendance.

Loveland - Host school here. No need for much else for attendance.
Mankato 2 1
Maine 15 4
Denver 6 2
OSU 11 3

Worcester - another solid attendance bracket. QU and UML swap had to happen. Easy switch to other east regional.
BC 4 1
QU 14 4
UMD 5 2
ASU 12 3

Allentown - Pedd State is host school plus North Dakota fans. Solid attendance.
UND 1 1
AHA 16 4
PSU 7 2
BSU 10 3

Albany. Whoa attendance. Possibility of an all-HE or -ECAC final matchup.
Cornell 3 1
UML 13 4
Zoomass 8 2
Clarkson 9 3

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Bracketology

This seems like the most likely bracket. The only part I’m not sure about is where ND ends up, Allentown or Loveland

My bracket is in agreement with the one above. Given this circumstance of where the 2 seeds are hosting, I think you put UND in Allentown to line up with the 7/10 matchup. Otherwise you penalize them further by putting them in Loveland with the 6 seed.

We've heard about how amazing UND is so... either they play the 7 instead of the 8 or in the event of an upset (not crazy given the low differential in overall seeding with the 2v3 matchups) and this works out better for them and they get the 10 rather than the 9. And the host situation... shouldn't be a problem for this juggernaut.

Looking forward to a Schlossman meltdown if this were to hold.

[Numbers]

Re: Bracketology

Just some information....

The top of the bracket (specifically the 4th #1 seed) is somewhat held hostage by Denver's early season sweep of U Mass. That means, effectively, that Denver will win the compare with BC no matter what happens from here on out. The effect of that is:
Denver need only pass UMD in the RPI rankings, and they would gain the last Top seed. That obviously blows every bracket that anyone has posted here completely to pieces.

It's way too early to guess brackets. Most of the 3rd and 4th seed band won't be decided until the last Friday night at the earliest, and perhaps everything from 12-15 not until Saturday night either. The separation between ASU at #12 and NoDame at #20 is less than .01 in the RPI, and for sure, that's one weekend's worth of work.

Perhaps trends here are the most important, with some analysis:

NoDak, Mankato and Cornell are likely #1s
BC, UMD or Denver are possibilities for the last #1, and all have a chance at it.
PSU and UMass will be either #2 or #3 seeds
Bemidji and Clarkson are likely in the tourney no matter what happens
OSU and ASU are likely in unless strange things happen in the Conference tourneys
Exciting times after that....

That seems as best as anyone can say at this point.

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Bracketology

Just some information....

The top of the bracket (specifically the 4th #1 seed) is somewhat held hostage by Denver's early season sweep of U Mass. That means, effectively, that Denver will win the compare with BC no matter what happens from here on out. The effect of that is:
Denver need only pass UMD in the RPI rankings, and they would gain the last Top seed.

Honest question...

Wouldn't that leave BC, UMD, DU still at 55 comparisons won and just swap DU into 5th and UMD to 6th since RPI is the tiebreaker in PWR? BC still has the highest RPI of the 3 and would stay at the top of that list all other things equal. UMD has a sizeable lead in the comparison with DU and even moving the RPI point over to DU would not flip the comparison to DU and keep everyone at 55. H2H is a 3 point lead there for UMD so that is going to be a tough one for DU to flip.

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: Bracketology

Check out collegehockeyranked.com to see where each team will land in the PW. It only goes to the end of the regular season so moot for some teams.

[Numbers]

Re: Bracketology

Honest question...

Wouldn't that leave BC, UMD, DU still at 55 comparisons won and just swap DU into 5th and UMD to 6th since RPI is the tiebreaker in PWR? BC still has the highest RPI of the 3 and would stay at the top of that list all other things equal. UMD has a sizeable lead in the comparison with DU and even moving the RPI point over to DU would not flip the comparison to DU and keep everyone at 55. H2H is a 3 point lead there for UMD so that is going to be a tough one for DU to flip.

Point well taken. You are correct. I was not aware that UMD had a 3-0-1 head to head advantage against Denver.
Denver would need a win against UMD in the conf tourney to flip the compare. That means that, all other things going 'normally', the NCHC semi between UMD and DU is going to be a very important game, since the entire compare might ride on that game.

Perhaps the better way to express the thought is that the RPI of the 3 teams is close, and BC has no guarantees.

***ETA....if UMD were to end up with the 4th #1, then I think it very likely they go to Loveland.

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Bracketology

That means that, all other things going 'normally', the NCHC semi between UMD and DU is going to be a very important game, since the entire compare might ride on that game.

Monster implications for sure if it happens. Of course, given there is a 3rd place game... that Saturday night could flip things back since RPI would remain the compelling factor.

[Numbers]

Re: Bracketology

Monster implications for sure if it happens. Of course, given there is a 3rd place game... that Saturday night could flip things back since RPI would remain the compelling factor.

I thought they abandoned that. Hmmm...