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The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

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  • #16
    Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by robertearle View Post
    For the most part, If Wisconsin wins the WCHA and Cornell loses one somewhere along the way. (Though there may be instances where even then Cornell says ahead; there was one set of outcomes I had in yesterday? this morning? that was a tie through four decimal places, with Wisconsin ahead at the fifth decimal place.)
    I just tried a couple combinations, and indeed found a couple where even if Wisconsin wins and Cornell loses one sometime, Cornell stays ahead. And here's the bad news (sorry, Grant). they hinge on Boston College and their first round series against UConn, along with Robert Morris doing well.

    Because they were regular season opponents for Wisconsin, if BC and RMU do well, it boosts Wisconsin's RPI. And does so just enough to put them ahead of Cornell.

    So: Wisconsin wins WCHA, Cornell loses one somewhere along the way, RMU wins the CHA and BC beats UConn in two in their first round. But even some of those are *really* close in RPI.

    ----

    Adding, it would be better for UW if Cornell's loss comes later: If they lose one in their first round, but survive and go on to win their tournament, it seems like the later 'quality win bonus' helps more than the early 'bad loss' hurts. But if they lose later, not only the loss itself but missing out on the quality win bonus hurts more. (of course, if they want to lose twice, even better!)

    This is system is what the word 'arcane' was coined for!

    ------

    I just found a combination where Cornell beats out Wisconsin 0.65903 to 0.65900 (yeah, I wrote it down). The USCHO web site would show that as a 'tie' at 0.6950.
    Last edited by robertearle; 02-25-2020, 11:27 PM.

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    • #17
      Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

      Originally posted by Timothy A View Post
      That fandangled chart looks like a lot of work to fill in.
      It definitely is at this point in the tournaments (or at least with having to input the CHA winners still, that's kind of annoying). After the quarterfinals the winners are pre-filled though and it gets much, much easier.

      Originally posted by robertearle View Post
      Because they were regular season opponents for Wisconsin, if BC [does] well, it boosts Wisconsin's RPI.
      Bad news for Wisconsin then
      Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 02-26-2020, 10:28 AM.
      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
      Twitter: @Salzano14


      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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      • #18
        Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

        Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
        Bad news for Wisconsin then
        BC success isn't absolutely necessary, but it is/would be helpful.

        And hey, two more people - me and Tim - now rooting for you! I could even put on my BC sweatshirt during the games! (Xmas present from my niece years ago; she went there.)

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        • #19
          Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

          Originally posted by robertearle View Post
          BC success isn't absolutely necessary, but it is/would be helpful.

          And hey, two more people - me and Tim - now rooting for you! I could even put on my BC sweatshirt during the games! (Xmas present from my niece years ago; she went there.)
          WOOHOO! We'll take all the help we can get
          Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
          Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
          Twitter: @Salzano14


          Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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          • #20
            Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

            Originally posted by robertearle View Post
            BC success isn't absolutely necessary, but it is/would be helpful.

            And hey, two more people - me and Tim - now rooting for you! I could even put on my BC sweatshirt during the games! (Xmas present from my niece years ago; she went there.)
            Root for BC? Ummm,,,,,well,,,,,,scratches head, grimaces, clinches teeth......I suppose, though when they were good I really disliked them. A lot.
            Wisconsin Hockey: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 WE WANT MORE!
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Come to the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod
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            Originally Posted by Wisko McBadgerton:
            "Baggot says Hughes and Rockwood are centering the top two lines...
            Timothy A --> Great hockey mind... Or Greatest hockey mind?!?"

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            • #21
              Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

              As if the race for the #7 spot wasn't already dramatic enough, current RPI teams #7, #8, and #9 all played overtime tonight.

              #7 Clarkson won (geez, how often do they play OT post-season games, and when is the last time they lost one??)
              #8 BU lost,
              and #9 Duluth won.

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              • #22
                Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                I'm trying to keep up with the results as they come in, so there should be far fewer inputs needed in the Predictor going forward.
                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                Twitter: @Salzano14


                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                • #23
                  Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                  Can someone simply confirm for me that CHA gets an auto-bid to the women's tournament? Thanks

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    Can someone simply confirm for me that CHA gets an auto-bid to the women's tournament? Thanks
                    CHA gets an autobid

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                    • #25
                      Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                      Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                      I'm trying to keep up with the results as they come in, so there should be far fewer inputs needed in the Predictor going forward.
                      (Not for now, but maybe next year) how difficult would it be to add a 'default set of picks' button, that loads up all higher seeds (meaning 'more likely winners) and "winner in two" choices, etc. It would serve as both a quick starting point or as a 'reset' after the user has clicked a number of combinations.
                      Last edited by robertearle; 02-29-2020, 05:26 PM.

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                      • #26
                        Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                        Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                        (Not for now, but maybe next year) how difficult would it be to add a 'default set of picks' button, that loads up all higher seeds (meaning 'more likely winners) and "winner in two" choices, etc. It would serve as both a quick starting point or as a 'reset' after the used has clicked a number of combinations.
                        Oh man that's interesting... I will have to look into it! I actually think I could do that.
                        Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 02-29-2020, 05:30 PM.
                        Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                        Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                        Twitter: @Salzano14


                        Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                          Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                          Oh man that's interesting... I will have to look into it! I actually think I could do that.
                          I did very little - some, but not a lot - with any 'Visual' GUI type programming over the years, but it sounds pretty do-able to me. But again, may be too much to try to do yet for this year.

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                          • #28
                            Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                            I don't find any way for Duluth to catch Clarkson for #7 in the Pairwise - other than winning the WCHA tournament, and then it would't matter; Duluth would get an automatic bid and bump whoever is #7 in the Pairwise.

                            Barring any upset winner of one of the HE, WHCA or ECAC tournaments, I think Clarkson is in.

                            (Meaning, barring upsets, we know who the seven teams are that will make the tournament.)
                            Last edited by robertearle; 02-29-2020, 06:12 PM.

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                            • #29
                              Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                              Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                              (Not for now, but maybe next year) how difficult would it be to add a 'default set of picks' button, that loads up all higher seeds (meaning 'more likely winners) and "winner in two" choices, etc. It would serve as both a quick starting point or as a 'reset' after the user has clicked a number of combinations.
                              Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                              Oh man that's interesting... I will have to look into it! I actually think I could do that.
                              I spent the last few hours trying to make it happen. I think I got the bugs ironed out. Give it a look and let me know!
                              Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 02-29-2020, 08:10 PM.
                              Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                              Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                              Twitter: @Salzano14


                              Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                                Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                                I spent the last few hours trying to make it happen. I think I got the bugs ironed out. Give it a look and let me know!
                                Mostly, it looks good.

                                I was thinking more of a 'one time' thing, at the time you click the button; while you appear to have it as an on-going sort-of 'adjust on the fly' with each input change thing. Not that one is better than the other; I just hadn't thought of it being 'on-going'. Wait to see what others think before doing anything on that.

                                I hope you didn't have anything else going on today! Like watching other games, etc. Really, I don't think I would have dared trying such a change right in the middle of the 'season' when people are using it so much.

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