Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor
I just tried a couple combinations, and indeed found a couple where even if Wisconsin wins and Cornell loses one sometime, Cornell stays ahead. And here's the bad news (sorry, Grant). they hinge on Boston College and their first round series against UConn, along with Robert Morris doing well.
Because they were regular season opponents for Wisconsin, if BC and RMU do well, it boosts Wisconsin's RPI. And does so just enough to put them ahead of Cornell.
So: Wisconsin wins WCHA, Cornell loses one somewhere along the way, RMU wins the CHA and BC beats UConn in two in their first round. But even some of those are *really* close in RPI.
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Adding, it would be better for UW if Cornell's loss comes later: If they lose one in their first round, but survive and go on to win their tournament, it seems like the later 'quality win bonus' helps more than the early 'bad loss' hurts. But if they lose later, not only the loss itself but missing out on the quality win bonus hurts more. (of course, if they want to lose twice, even better!)
This is system is what the word 'arcane' was coined for!
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I just found a combination where Cornell beats out Wisconsin 0.65903 to 0.65900 (yeah, I wrote it down). The USCHO web site would show that as a 'tie' at 0.6950.
Originally posted by robertearle
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Because they were regular season opponents for Wisconsin, if BC and RMU do well, it boosts Wisconsin's RPI. And does so just enough to put them ahead of Cornell.
So: Wisconsin wins WCHA, Cornell loses one somewhere along the way, RMU wins the CHA and BC beats UConn in two in their first round. But even some of those are *really* close in RPI.
----
Adding, it would be better for UW if Cornell's loss comes later: If they lose one in their first round, but survive and go on to win their tournament, it seems like the later 'quality win bonus' helps more than the early 'bad loss' hurts. But if they lose later, not only the loss itself but missing out on the quality win bonus hurts more. (of course, if they want to lose twice, even better!)
This is system is what the word 'arcane' was coined for!
------
I just found a combination where Cornell beats out Wisconsin 0.65903 to 0.65900 (yeah, I wrote it down). The USCHO web site would show that as a 'tie' at 0.6950.
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