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The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

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  • The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

    Good morning friends! The 2020 version of the Pairwise Predictor is going live this afternoon once the Wisconsin/Duluth game goes final. I'll post a link to it here as soon as we know the result of that game. The Predictor is now live! https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ston-wisconsin


    Click here to go to the Predictor!


    I'll be out wicked late tonight (I'm in Vegas for the NASCAR race and it ended up being a doubleheader because of a rainout last night), but I have it ready to push live from my phone... at least as long as Wisconsin wins, since that's what I prepopulated into the sheet. So of course I cursed them and Duluth is going to win now. I'll do my best to update it remotely if I have to.

    Anyway, I'm prepping this thread so it's easy for me to post the link while on mobile. Happy Predicting!
    Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 02-25-2020, 11:30 AM.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

  • #2
    Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

    Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    Good morning friends! The 2020 version of the Pairwise Predictor is going live this afternoon once the Wisconsin/Duluth game goes final. I'll post a link to it here as soon as we know the result of that game.



    I'll be out wicked late tonight (I'm in Vegas for the NASCAR race and it ended up being a doubleheader because of a rainout last night), but I have it ready to push live from my phone... at least as long as Wisconsin wins, since that's what I prepopulated into the sheet. So of course I cursed them and Duluth is going to win now. I'll do my best to update it remotely if I have to.

    Anyway, I'm prepping this thread so it's easy for me to post the link while on mobile. Happy Predicting!
    As always, we appreciate the work that goes into this stuff.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by robertearle View Post
      As always, we appreciate the work that goes into this stuff.
      Thank you! I'm just glad it gets some use
      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
      Twitter: @Salzano14


      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

        Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
        Thank you! I'm just glad it gets some use
        I have used it since you made it available and it is a great tool to have some fun with. Thanks to you for all your work each year.
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        • #5
          Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

          Here you go folks, have at it!

          https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ston-wisconsin
          Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
          Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
          Twitter: @Salzano14


          Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

            Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
            Jokingly - bit only halfway so - don't we, shouldn't we wait until the NEWHA championship game goes final? Or is it so unlikely to affect things, there's no point?

            Edit: Sorry, I hadn't looked. NEWHA already 'accounted for'. Well done, as usual.
            Last edited by robertearle; 02-23-2020, 05:00 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

              Looks great as always, but with more than 9.6 billion unique outcomes still possible, I think I'll wait a week before I start playing with it.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                For what it's worth the highest I can get BC without winning Hockey East is 10th
                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                Twitter: @Salzano14


                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                  Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                  For what it's worth the highest I can get BC without winning Hockey East is 10th
                  One thing I noticed (not that it makes all that much difference) was in situations where Minnesota passed Wisconsin in RPI (UW loses in the WCHA semi, for example), the predictor was still showing Wisconsin above Minnesota in the 'results' box. I assume that might be because Wisconsin would still win the Pairwise pair?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                    Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                    One thing I noticed (not that it makes all that much difference) was in situations where Minnesota passed Wisconsin in RPI (UW loses in the WCHA semi, for example), the predictor was still showing Wisconsin above Minnesota in the 'results' box. I assume that might be because Wisconsin would still win the Pairwise pair?
                    Does UW hold an insurmountable lead in Common Opponents? UW holds a +1 advantage in H2H, so UW can win the pair without leading in RPI if it takes COp.
                    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                      Originally posted by ARM View Post
                      Does UW hold an insurmountable lead in Common Opponents? UW holds a +1 advantage in H2H, so UW can win the pair without leading in RPI if it takes COp.
                      It's pretty large, 7.000 to 6.625 right now, and given that the only games left are against teams that both of them have played 4x already, a loss to one of them isn't enough to swing it that much.

                      Actually, Wisconsin probably has BC to thank for that. 0.500 of that difference is courtesy of the Eagles tying Minnesota.
                      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                      Twitter: @Salzano14


                      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                        Originally posted by ARM View Post
                        Does UW hold an insurmountable lead in Common Opponents? UW holds a +1 advantage in H2H, so UW can win the pair without leading in RPI if it takes COp.
                        UW currently lead Common opponents 7.0 to 6.625. Yes, If my math is correct, a Minn win over OSU and a UW loss to Duluth, and then a Minn win over Duluth would change it to 6.825 to 6.8; Wisconsin still wins the pair. But when things are that close - each with a 'conference championship', and 'common opponents' essentially a tie - who knows what the selection people might do.

                        I should have done the math before posting; still probably worth getting Grant to double-check, etc.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                          Originally posted by robertearle View Post
                          ... each with a 'conference championship'...
                          The message has always been that the committee doesn't care at all about such things, or margin of defeat, when the games took place, etc. Who knows if that is true.
                          "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                          And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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                          • #14
                            Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                            That fandangled chart looks like a lot of work to fill in. Under what circumstances, if any, can UW topple Cornell?
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                            • #15
                              Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

                              Originally posted by Timothy A View Post
                              That fandangled chart looks like a lot of work to fill in. Under what circumstances, if any, can UW topple Cornell?
                              For the most part, If Wisconsin wins the WCHA and Cornell loses one somewhere along the way. (Though there may be instances where even then Cornell says ahead; there was one set of outcomes I had in yesterday? this morning? that was a tie through four decimal places, with Wisconsin ahead at the fifth decimal place.)

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