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  • #61
    Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

    The Gray Lady breaks it down.
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    • #62
      Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

      Originally posted by alfablue View Post
      Correlation is not causation.
      Yeah, no ****. I'm talking about peer reviewed scientific literature.

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19204283

      Previous studies indicate that relative humidity (RH) affects both influenza virus transmission (IVT) and influenza virus survival (IVS). Here, we reanalyze these data to explore the effects of absolute humidity on IVT and IVS. We find that absolute humidity (AH) constrains both transmission efficiency and IVS much more significantly than RH. In the studies presented, 50% of IVT variability and 90% of IVS variability are explained by AH, whereas, respectively, only 12% and 36% are explained by RH. In temperate regions, both outdoor and indoor AH possess a strong seasonal cycle that minimizes in winter. This seasonal cycle is consistent with a wintertime increase in IVS and IVT and may explain the seasonality of influenza. Thus, differences in AH provide a single, coherent, more physically sound explanation for the observed variability of IVS, IVT and influenza seasonality in temperate regions. This hypothesis can be further tested through future, additional laboratory, epidemiological and modeling studies.
      https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

      it's more complex in tropical regions where they don't have a low humidity/low temperature season, and the rainy season appears to be a driver there:

      In tropical and subtropical regions, patterns of influenza outbreaks are more diverse. While annual epidemics coinciding with the rainy season have been observed in many (sub)tropical locations, biannual incidence is the norm in some regions, and influenza activity occurs throughout the year in others
      The authors concluded that, across temperate and tropical climates, two distinct types of climatic conditions are associated with influenza epidemics: cold/dry and humid/rainy
      Last edited by BassAle; 02-11-2020, 09:02 AM.

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      • #63
        Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

        China officially admits to 1000th death.

        So what do we figure the actual is? Over/under is 50k.
        Cornell University
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        • #64
          Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

          Originally posted by BassAle View Post
          Yeah, no ****. I'm talking about peer reviewed scientific literature.

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19204283



          https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

          it's more complex in tropical regions where they don't have a low humidity/low temperature season, and the rainy season appears to be a driver there:
          It's just a hypothesis that needs additional lab, epidemiological, and modelling studies (it even says that). And it's more explaining the reason of variability of transmissions and survivability due to the absolute humidity or relative humidity. Not that it's clearly going away when it gets hot and humid.

          It's going to take a whole lot more than having others read the data to prove that.

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          • #65
            Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
            China officially admits to 1000th death.

            So what do we figure the actual is? Over/under is 50k.


            Offically now 1100.

            带出你的死人!

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            • #66
              Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

              Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post


              Offically now 1100.

              带出你的死人!
              Bad, for sure.

              But to reach the US death toll rate for influenza, it would need about 100,000 deaths- I think it's been posted that the US is 10,000/330,000,000, and since China is about 10x larger than we are....

              The real question, it seems, is what action to take to deal with people- for the news that we can actually get, it's the Diamond Princess passengers are still spreading it even with them all being confined to their cabins. (and I'm sure the environment is easily controlled if that would contribute to it ending). Perhaps that's the wrong action?

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              • #67
                Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post


                Offically now 1100.

                带出你的死人!
                What the hell is that in the picture?

                I can’t tell if it’s lettuce or bodies.
                Code:
                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                Originally posted by SanTropez
                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                Originally posted by Kepler
                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

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                • #68
                  Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                  Originally posted by alfablue View Post
                  Bad, for sure.

                  But to reach the US death toll rate for influenza, it would need about 100,000 deaths- I think it's been posted that the US is 10,000/330,000,000, and since China is about 10x larger than we are....

                  The real question, it seems, is what action to take to deal with people- for the news that we can actually get, it's the Diamond Princess passengers are still spreading it even with them all being confined to their cabins. (and I'm sure the environment is easily controlled if that would contribute to it ending). Perhaps that's the wrong action?
                  Again, it’s bad not because of the raw numbers but the fact that it’s 100x more deadly the flu.
                  Code:
                  As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                  College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                  BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                  Originally posted by SanTropez
                  May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                  Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                  I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                  Originally posted by Kepler
                  When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                  He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post


                    What the hell is that in the picture?

                    I can’t tell if it’s lettuce or bodies.
                    I've seen it someplace before.

                    Last edited by Kepler; 02-12-2020, 06:50 AM.
                    Cornell University
                    National Champion 1967, 1970
                    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                    • #70
                      Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                      Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                      Again, it’s bad not because of the raw numbers but the fact that it’s 100x more deadly the flu.
                      Is it? Or is that just relative to how many we actually know are sick? How many more are sick, but are not treated- some of the videos out of China suggest that there are MANY more sick people than are spaces for real treatment.

                      Time will truly tell if it's really that much more deadly. If it is, then that would be well over a million who may die in China, as it really appears that containment isn't working all that well, locally.

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                      • #71
                        Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                        Originally posted by alfablue View Post
                        Is it? Or is that just relative to how many we actually know are sick? How many more are sick, but are not treated- some of the videos out of China suggest that there are MANY more sick people than are spaces for real treatment.

                        Time will truly tell if it's really that much more deadly. If it is, then that would be well over a million who may die in China, as it really appears that containment isn't working all that well, locally.
                        From what I know, basically if you get it, you're gonna die. Part of it is b/c China isn't reporting real numbers, and the other part of it is we have no clue how to friggin' treat it in time.
                        Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                        Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by The Rube View Post
                          From what I know, basically if you get it, you're gonna die. Part of it is b/c China isn't reporting real numbers, and the other part of it is we have no clue how to friggin' treat it in time.
                          I don’t think that’s true at all. It’s not Ebola. Fatality rate is around 2%, death rates lag for weeks so it will be impossible to get hard data but as an epidemiology graduate student I have not heard anything close to “if you get it you die”

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                          • #73
                            Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                            Literally no one has said it’s even remotely close to universally fatal. I
                            Code:
                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                              Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                              I don’t think that’s true at all. It’s not Ebola. Fatality rate is around 2%, death rates lag for weeks so it will be impossible to get hard data but as an epidemiology graduate student I have not heard anything close to “if you get it you die”
                              IF they catch it in time, sure, you're fine. That's the fine print. IF they catch it in time. They're still trying to figure out everything; symptoms, source, how it spreads, etc. That throws a wrench in things.
                              They are doing the right thing in the quarantines, etc. That's prob the best plan.
                              Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                              Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by The Rube View Post
                                IF they catch it in time, sure, you're fine. That's the fine print. IF they catch it in time. They're still trying to figure out everything; symptoms, source, how it spreads, etc. That throws a wrench in things.
                                They are doing the right thing in the quarantines, etc. That's prob the best plan.
                                That’s not what you said. You said if you get it, you will die. There is just no factual basis for that.
                                They haven’t determined incubation period or all methods of transmission , so yes a lot of unknown- but saying things like everyone will has it will die spreads a lot of fear and panic

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