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Cornell University
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by alfablue View PostCorrelation is not causation.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19204283
Previous studies indicate that relative humidity (RH) affects both influenza virus transmission (IVT) and influenza virus survival (IVS). Here, we reanalyze these data to explore the effects of absolute humidity on IVT and IVS. We find that absolute humidity (AH) constrains both transmission efficiency and IVS much more significantly than RH. In the studies presented, 50% of IVT variability and 90% of IVS variability are explained by AH, whereas, respectively, only 12% and 36% are explained by RH. In temperate regions, both outdoor and indoor AH possess a strong seasonal cycle that minimizes in winter. This seasonal cycle is consistent with a wintertime increase in IVS and IVT and may explain the seasonality of influenza. Thus, differences in AH provide a single, coherent, more physically sound explanation for the observed variability of IVS, IVT and influenza seasonality in temperate regions. This hypothesis can be further tested through future, additional laboratory, epidemiological and modeling studies.
it's more complex in tropical regions where they don't have a low humidity/low temperature season, and the rainy season appears to be a driver there:
In tropical and subtropical regions, patterns of influenza outbreaks are more diverse. While annual epidemics coinciding with the rainy season have been observed in many (sub)tropical locations, biannual incidence is the norm in some regions, and influenza activity occurs throughout the year in othersThe authors concluded that, across temperate and tropical climates, two distinct types of climatic conditions are associated with influenza epidemics: cold/dry and humid/rainyLast edited by BassAle; 02-11-2020, 09:02 AM.
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
China officially admits to 1000th death.
So what do we figure the actual is? Over/under is 50k.Cornell University
National Champion 1967, 1970
ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by BassAle View PostYeah, no ****. I'm talking about peer reviewed scientific literature.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19204283
https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692
it's more complex in tropical regions where they don't have a low humidity/low temperature season, and the rainy season appears to be a driver there:
It's going to take a whole lot more than having others read the data to prove that.
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Death toll from coronavirus surpasses 1,100; US confirms 13th case https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH
— Detroit Free Press (@freep) February 12, 2020
Offically now 1100.
带出你的死人!
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View PostDeath toll from coronavirus surpasses 1,100; US confirms 13th case https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH
— Detroit Free Press (@freep) February 12, 2020
Offically now 1100.
带出你的死人!
But to reach the US death toll rate for influenza, it would need about 100,000 deaths- I think it's been posted that the US is 10,000/330,000,000, and since China is about 10x larger than we are....
The real question, it seems, is what action to take to deal with people- for the news that we can actually get, it's the Diamond Princess passengers are still spreading it even with them all being confined to their cabins. (and I'm sure the environment is easily controlled if that would contribute to it ending). Perhaps that's the wrong action?
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View PostDeath toll from coronavirus surpasses 1,100; US confirms 13th case https://t.co/mvbzymGSCH
— Detroit Free Press (@freep) February 12, 2020
Offically now 1100.
带出你的死人!
I can’t tell if it’s lettuce or bodies.Code:As of 9/21/10: As of 9/13/10: College Hockey 6 College Football 0 BTHC 4 WCHA FC: 1
Originally posted by SanTropezMay your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.Originally posted by bigblue_dlI don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..Originally posted by KeplerWhen the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by alfablue View PostBad, for sure.
But to reach the US death toll rate for influenza, it would need about 100,000 deaths- I think it's been posted that the US is 10,000/330,000,000, and since China is about 10x larger than we are....
The real question, it seems, is what action to take to deal with people- for the news that we can actually get, it's the Diamond Princess passengers are still spreading it even with them all being confined to their cabins. (and I'm sure the environment is easily controlled if that would contribute to it ending). Perhaps that's the wrong action?Code:As of 9/21/10: As of 9/13/10: College Hockey 6 College Football 0 BTHC 4 WCHA FC: 1
Originally posted by SanTropezMay your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.Originally posted by bigblue_dlI don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..Originally posted by KeplerWhen the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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Last edited by Kepler; 02-12-2020, 06:50 AM.Cornell University
National Champion 1967, 1970
ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View PostAgain, it’s bad not because of the raw numbers but the fact that it’s 100x more deadly the flu.
Time will truly tell if it's really that much more deadly. If it is, then that would be well over a million who may die in China, as it really appears that containment isn't working all that well, locally.
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by alfablue View PostIs it? Or is that just relative to how many we actually know are sick? How many more are sick, but are not treated- some of the videos out of China suggest that there are MANY more sick people than are spaces for real treatment.
Time will truly tell if it's really that much more deadly. If it is, then that would be well over a million who may die in China, as it really appears that containment isn't working all that well, locally.Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens
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Originally posted by The Rube View PostFrom what I know, basically if you get it, you're gonna die. Part of it is b/c China isn't reporting real numbers, and the other part of it is we have no clue how to friggin' treat it in time.
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Literally no one has said it’s even remotely close to universally fatal. ICode:As of 9/21/10: As of 9/13/10: College Hockey 6 College Football 0 BTHC 4 WCHA FC: 1
Originally posted by SanTropezMay your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.Originally posted by bigblue_dlI don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..Originally posted by KeplerWhen the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View PostI don’t think that’s true at all. It’s not Ebola. Fatality rate is around 2%, death rates lag for weeks so it will be impossible to get hard data but as an epidemiology graduate student I have not heard anything close to “if you get it you die”
They are doing the right thing in the quarantines, etc. That's prob the best plan.Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens
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Originally posted by The Rube View PostIF they catch it in time, sure, you're fine. That's the fine print. IF they catch it in time. They're still trying to figure out everything; symptoms, source, how it spreads, etc. That throws a wrench in things.
They are doing the right thing in the quarantines, etc. That's prob the best plan.
They haven’t determined incubation period or all methods of transmission , so yes a lot of unknown- but saying things like everyone will has it will die spreads a lot of fear and panic
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