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  • #31
    Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

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    • #32
      Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

      Originally posted by BassAle View Post
      to be fair, warmer weather can reduce the amount of time the virus can survive on surfaces like doorknobs, etc and lower temperatures increase their survival time in aerosol
      But those are seasonal variations, right? This is going to be with us for a long time. Presumably winter will come again, although I'm sure the American Petroleum Institute is right now developing "science" about how global warming will stop the scourge of nCoV.
      Cornell University
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      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
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      • #33
        Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

        Originally posted by Kepler View Post
        But those are seasonal variations, right? This is going to be with us for a long time. Presumably winter will come again, although I'm sure the American Petroleum Institute is right now developing "science" about how global warming will stop the scourge of nCoV.
        well SARS is still with us but we're not panicking about it anymore. If we see a resurgence of Coronavirus I doubt it will be as severe as the current (there will be potential vaccinations, hopefully they'll have identified some antiviral meds that are effective, etc)

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        • #34
          Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

          Originally posted by BassAle View Post
          well SARS is still with us but we're not panicking about it anymore. If we see a resurgence of Coronavirus I doubt it will be as severe as the current (there will be potential vaccinations, hopefully they'll have identified some antiviral meds that are effective, etc)
          Dumb question: do viruses mutate?
          Cornell University
          National Champion 1967, 1970
          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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          • #35
            Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

            Originally posted by Kepler View Post
            Dumb question: do viruses mutate?
            absolutely

            some have very high mutation rates. An RNA virus (like polio) have super high mutation rates: https://journals.plos.org/plosbiolog...l.pbio.3000003
            Last edited by BassAle; 02-10-2020, 12:49 PM.

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            • #36
              Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

              Originally posted by BassAle View Post
              absolutely

              some have very high mutation rates.
              So assuming a moving target can we have confidence it won't mutate to a more dangerous configuration? (Or are the odds against that, in the way that random chance tends not to produce meaningful strings)?
              Cornell University
              National Champion 1967, 1970
              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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              • #37
                Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                So assuming a moving target can we have confidence it won't mutate to a more dangerous configuration? (Or are the odds against that, in the way that random chance tends not to produce meaningful strings)?
                i'm not going to try to answer this because I'd be pulling things out of my ***. I do know the flu has a really high mutation rate, which I would guess is why we don't have a universal vaccination by now. It doesn't seem to make it more deadly, but it makes it difficult to develop immunity. I would guess there is always a chance for a mutation that would make a virus more deadly.

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                • #38
                  Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                  Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                  i'm not going to try to answer this because I'd be pulling things out of my ***. I do know the flu has a really high mutation rate, which I would guess is why we don't have a universal vaccination by now. It doesn't seem to make it more deadly, but it makes it difficult to develop immunity. I would guess there is always a chance for a mutation that would make a virus more deadly.
                  All I know about this is that the vast, vast majority of mutations are either meaningless or non-viable. It takes a lucky roll to tweak a characteristic in a way that is both significant and not suicidal. The islands of viability in the sea of genetic possibilities are tiny.
                  Cornell University
                  National Champion 1967, 1970
                  ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                  Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                  • #39
                    Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                    Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                    to be fair, warmer weather can reduce the amount of time the virus can survive on surfaces like doorknobs, etc and lower temperatures increase their survival time in aerosol

                    warmer weather can absolutely slow the spread
                    But, correct me if I'm wrong, the vast majority of the decrease in outbreaks in warmer weather is because people are less holed-up inside, not because the sun is baking the virus away.

                    Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                    KDR

                    Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                    iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                    gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
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                    Test to see if I can add this.

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                    • #40
                      Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                      Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                      But, correct me if I'm wrong, the vast majority of the decrease in outbreaks in warmer weather is because people are less holed-up inside
                      Why wouldn't this increase transmission?
                      Cornell University
                      National Champion 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                      • #41
                        Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                        Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                        But, correct me if I'm wrong, the vast majority of the decrease in outbreaks in warmer weather is because people are less holed-up inside, not because the sun is baking the virus away.
                        That actually makes a lot of sense.
                        **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                        Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                        Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

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                        • #42
                          Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                          Why wouldn't this increase transmission?
                          I think everyone indoors is closer quarters, whereas outside or about the town is less so? Don't quote me on this though.

                          Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                          KDR

                          Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                          iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                          gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                          Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                          Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                          TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                          DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                          Test to see if I can add this.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                            I think everyone indoors is closer quarters, whereas outside or about the town is less so? Don't quote me on this though.
                            Bingo bango. Closer quarters = easier for infected people to spread the virus via coughing/sneezing.

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                            • #44
                              Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

                              Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                              I think everyone indoors is closer quarters, whereas outside or about the town is less so? Don't quote me on this though.
                              Right I got that part but I wondered whether the lines would cross the other way: increased opportunity of many pairs transmission would overwhelm the lower likelihood of single pair transmission.

                              But after 5 minutes of deep internet searching I think you're right. Which suggests to me we should burn down the hospitals.
                              Cornell University
                              National Champion 1967, 1970
                              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                                Right I got that part but I wondered whether the lines would cross the other way: increased opportunity of many pairs transmission would overwhelm the lower likelihood of single pair transmission.

                                But after 5 minutes of deep internet searching I think you're right. Which suggests to me we should burn down the hospitals.
                                A definite cesspool. There’s a reason Medicare doesn’t pay for hospital acquired infections- they happen constantly.

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