nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

[ticapnews]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Cool. Now we're living in Planet of the Apes.

Stop linking to the Sun. The board moderator might delete it for being spam.

[Handyman]

No, your ad hominem is the overplayed tactic.

'What's the number' is asking for a fact so we can deal with facts and not fears.

Amazing you are so into to facts now...speculation didn't seem to bug you back in 2016.

[Drew S.]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Do you think traveling right now domestically is a bad idea? I’m supposed to travel next week for work and my wife is worried there could be some kind of travel ban or quarantine I could get caught up in.

[rufus]

Iran’s seventh government minister diagnosed

The cycling race the UAE Tour was cancelled after two days when two team workers tested positive for the virus.

[rufus]

Everything about America is conducive to this virus blowing stuff up. No paid sick time for so many. How many people will go to work while sick because they can’t afford to not work?
Then add in our government ignorance

People having to pay thousands out of pocket for the test. Nope no way, getting some Nyquil at the pharmacy and self-medicating, while still going to work or school every day.

[rufus]

If this spreads a LOT in dumpy country, I could think of worse things happening.

These are the people who voted to have their healthcare cut, and cut funding to the CDC, and put up a worthless wall. And now want to pretend that this is not an issue at all. Plus, are fully behind having business and economic people dealing with the risk vs. doctors and scientists.

But it's nice to see big pharma seeing the business opportunity to add another annual vaccine to their bottom lines.

But they'll still blame it all on the evil Democrats

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Do you think traveling right now domestically is a bad idea? I’m supposed to travel next week for work and my wife is worried there could be some kind of travel ban or quarantine I could get caught up in.

I’d say right now risk is low. I guess if California explodes you could see things crop up there

[mookie1995]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

But they'll still blame it all on the evil Democrats

do nothing democrats.

get it right

[geezer]

Yeah, because the U6 number of infections is the real one!*

*Offer applies only when it hurts a Dem president.

Seriously, you have like the same 10 arguments you cycle through. "But what's the real number?" is grossly overplayed.

I don’t understand the objection. Surely we all agree that a virus doesn’t care if an R or a D sits in the White House. And all sensible people agree that our national prep and response would be a zillion times better if the FakeTrumpGod didn’t exist. But why does that mean the actual numbers should not be reported? I want the real numbers, and I don’t expect liberals to be the ones complaining about that. Math is math.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

They very rarely have the denominator right unless it's something obvious like ebola and it's in a well-monitored region. So... all of these numbers are going to miss some, many, or most of the denominator. The number you're looking for is the IFR, infection fatality rate. These are almost always based on educated guesses from what I've read, but not always. Logically, that makes sense because you never can account for every infection.

I'm also guessing you're more likely to miss the denominator low if it's a mild diseases like the common cold. The more severe, the more likely you're going to get it closer to correct as people die or seek treatment.

So you have a couple of options:
1. Assume the CFR is low, which seems the least logical, but it's not out of the question as resources become taxed globally instead of regionally.
2. Assume the CFR is high. Which I'd guess is fairly consistently off compared to the IFR. Even at 2%, it's a huge number compared to the estimates of seasonal flu at 0.01-0.1%, which is probably high because not all cases are reported AND it's moderated by the fact that so many high-risk people are immunized AND we have Tamiflu. So it's not even comparable anyways since we don't have a vaccine for this virus and only experimental treatments. Maybe in 2-3 years the CFR is less than the flu's, maybe significantly, after we start vaccinating our most at-risk populations. On the other hand, 2% is mainly based on areas with "worse" health care systems than the western world. So perhaps as this spreads west, it drops.
3. Assume the CFR is right. In this case, at 2% is a little scary.

What happens if you're wrong:
1. You're over-prepared, probably waste resources, and you might make people question your credibility next time.
2. You risk under-preparing. Probably the worst consequences as resources become scarce, people start dying, and you've still lost credibility.
3. You're probably a little of both, but at least you're closer to being fully prepared.

[rufus]

Do you think traveling right now domestically is a bad idea? I’m supposed to travel next week for work and my wife is worried there could be some kind of travel ban or quarantine I could get caught up in.

Don't worry, your gunz will keep you safe.

I'm sure she will enjoy her time away from you.

[rufus]

I don’t understand the objection. Surely we all agree that a virus doesn’t care if an R or a D sits in the White House. And all sensible people agree that our national prep and response would be a zillion times better if the FakeTrumpGod didn’t exist. But why does that mean the actual numbers should not be reported? I want the real numbers, and I don’t expect liberals to be the ones complaining about that. Math is math.

You aren't gonna ever see the real numbers. Pence's job is to make sure you don't.

Otherwise, the markets will continue to spook, Donnie will be angry, and his re-election prospects will take a hit.

People dying? Who gives a ****?

[geezer]

Do you think traveling right now domestically is a bad idea? I’m supposed to travel next week for work and my wife is worried there could be some kind of travel ban or quarantine I could get caught up in.

Even though risk is low now, and I understand that this thing will very soon be as common as the flu everywhere, it gave me a bit of the heebie jeebies to find out I’d been staying next door to a Japanese dude who was carrying it in Honolulu, and that I shared an airport with a bunch of Chinese people who had it who were then detained there. It’s been over three weeks though and I’m still kicking.
For all I know, me and 10 million other Americans have already had a mild case. Which would actually be a good thing.

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

do nothing democrats.

get it right

That's demoncrats.

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Do you think traveling right now domestically is a bad idea?

No.