nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I'm not sure that's quite how it works. That specific wording. Either it was never there and this is just lost productivity, which still means it's not real; the virus caused deflation, or the the money caught the virus and died. I'm guessing it's the first.

Plus, $40 billion is absolutely squat. The GDP of the world is $87 trillion. $40 billion is 0.05% of the global GDP.

That's the way it was stated in the article, so what do I know? LOL

I took it is both stocks dropping (which of course can rebound) and money that could not be made because say factories had to shutdown. Whether that is ever recoverable is the question.

And yeah, in the grand scheme of things, it's a tiny amount.

[mookie1995]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Schools through university are closed here until the 14th at the earliest now.

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Right, I agree with all of this. However, that's why CFR is both highly variable in the early stages of a pandemic and when you start to talk about pandemics, I'm guessing the denominator is large no matter what and grossly underestimated. It's kind of analogous to the law of large numbers. Plus, CFR only considers the documented cases. IFR, the infection fatality rate, is almost always significantly lower and is almost impossible to calculate. I think you're talking about the IFR (total infections) and I'm referring to documented cases.

Regarding the non-China connection, I also agree that would be terrifying. But I really meant "no known" when I said that. I should have put it in italics. What's I was getting at was people are hiding their connections and their illnesses because they are probably in denial and are afraid of reprisals. Iran is the one I'm thinking of. Imagine being in a totalitarian regime and you catch this. No bueno.

All good points. Thanks. Just so you know where I'm coming from, most of my career has been in SW testing and quality assurance. So, I'm always playing the what if scenarios with cause and effects and thus questioning statistics by nature (as well as questioning anything Development says, LOL).

And secondarily, there's "no known" connection because people are possibly asymptomatic when they're spreading this. There's some research out there pointing to this being contagious well before symptoms show up.

Aren't all viruses (of this type) contagious before symptoms show up? The question is how long before symptoms and how long is the incubation period? From what I read, this virus has a very long incubation period, and that makes it more dangerous.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Well, there are signs it’s being transmitted more than via respiratory. And people touch their eyes, etc. you’re better off with the sanitizer

I have zero doubt that eyes are a major route of infection. Research seems to indicate fecal-oral is all but confirmed.

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I was talking with some pandemic specialist docs yesterday and they reiterated that masks are not helpful for anyone who isn’t sick. You’re better off wiping down everything you touch with sanitizer

My brother deals with doctors in his job, and he said they said the exact same thing during the SARS scare. Masks do squat in these situations.

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

My brother deals with doctors in his job, and he said they said the exact same thing during the SARS scare. Masks do squat for viruses.

Is this because it's transmitted by touch, not breath?

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Is this because it's transmitted by touch, not breath?

I never got the details from him. I could ask ... if he remembers.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

It's both, most likely.

Masks work just fine* if you use them properly. BUt someone might still get infected if they aren't following proper hand washing procedures. There are multiple ways to get infected. I think it's a bad conclusion to say they don't work. It's like saying earplugs don't work because you only use them in one ear. No, they work, it's why medical professionals use them. The problem is most people don't use them properly. So wash your hands and disinfect them.

*FIne is relative. Nothing is a perfectly effective barrier unless it's impermeable. You can't really breath through a thick sheet of plastic covering your face. So these are rated at a certain efficiency. N95 will catch 95% of particles at a certain size when used properly. N100 will still only catch 99.97%. So you can still get it through that N100 mask. The difference in effectiveness is ease of adherence to procedures and an assortment of other features.

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

You can't really breath through a thick sheet of plastic covering your face.

We need to get that stuff advertised on Hannity.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

We need to get that stuff advertised on Hannity.

I'm sure he has an autoerotic asphyxiation fetish already.

I don't know it for a fact, I just know it's true.

[Slap Shot]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

All three of my office locations are checking the temp of anyone entering the facility and require the use of hand sanitizer.

At our kid's school classes are still open, but all after-school activities have been suspended until further notice.

Thailand's tourism industry is getting crushed, and I am sure they are not alone.

[ticapnews]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

https://god.dailydot.com/pastor-rick...navirus-jesus/

The Caronavirus will stop if Sniffles accepts cauliflower.

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

All three of my office locations are checking the temp of anyone entering the facility and require the use of hand sanitizer.

It's still not going to catch everybody (and I'm not talking pre-symptomatic cases). For instance, my normal body temperature is 96.8. That's not a dyslexic typo, though I do joke I have dyslexic body temperature. So, if I'm measured at 99, no one will think twice about it. However, if a normal person is measured at 101, they have a fever. Well guess what, for me, 99 is a fever. And I just walked through the door...

Thailand's tourism industry is getting crushed, and I am sure they are not alone.

Before all this happened, and I'm still kind of am, I've been thinking of attending the Singapore Grand Prix in September with stops in Malaysia and Thailand. I suspect the summer heat and humidity will send the virus into dormancy, just like the flu does or SARS did. Well, I suppose I could get some real good deals if I book my trip now...

[BassAle]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

My brother deals with doctors in his job, and he said they said the exact same thing during the SARS scare. Masks do squat in these situations.

there is a reason why your doctors office makes you wear a mask if you have the flu:

masks help reduce the likelihood that people who are already sick spread the disease through aerosol. everytime they cough they are spraying virus laden droplets into the air. the mask will help trap those.

they aren't so helpful in preventing someone that is not sick from becoming infected

this is flu specific, but would be similar in the case of coronoavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professional...skguidance.htm

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

there is a reason why your doctors office makes you wear a mask if the have the flu:

masks help reduce the likelihood that people who are already sick spread the disease through aerosol

they aren't so helpful in preventing someone that is not sick from becoming infected

this is flu specific, but would be similar in the case of coronoavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professional...skguidance.htm

Thank you. I should have been clearer. The question my brother asked the doctors was would masks help prevent him from getting sick.