nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

[state of hockey]

This is all Marco Polo's fault.

Ugh. Didn't proofread. Edited.

And I agree. Blame Italians whenever you can.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Nothing will ever be fool proof but it’d be nice if China cracked down on their wild animal trade. Can’t think of a nation I want to visit less. Well, maybe India

[ticapnews]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

You're over thinking this. It's Obama's fault. If he hadn't worn that tan suit...

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Well, you know what they say about statistics. WHO and CDC have admitted that we really don't know how many people have actually caught it for various reasons, so the denominator could be highly inaccurate.



I've been wondering about this. Let's suppose I went to China, caught the virus but was naturally immune to it but still transmissible, and thus never detected in the airport checks. I then give it to someone who only gets mildly sick and thus never seeks medical aid. He then gives it to someone who gets very sick, seeks medical aid, and thus is recorded as officially getting the virus. The problem is, that third person may have no idea of the China connection from me. Especially if all the connections were between strangers in a public place.

I got to think some of this is going on. How much? Who knows?

Obviously, if there really are outbreaks without a China connection, then that's really scary.

Right, I agree with all of this. However, that's why CFR is both highly variable in the early stages of a pandemic and when you start to talk about pandemics, I'm guessing the denominator is large no matter what and grossly underestimated. It's kind of analogous to the law of large numbers. Plus, CFR only considers the documented cases. IFR, the infection fatality rate, is almost always significantly lower and is almost impossible to calculate. I think you're talking about the IFR (total infections) and I'm referring to documented cases.

Regarding the non-China connection, I also agree that would be terrifying. But I really meant "no known" when I said that. I should have put it in italics. What's I was getting at was people are hiding their connections and their illnesses because they are probably in denial and are afraid of reprisals. Iran is the one I'm thinking of. Imagine being in a totalitarian regime and you catch this. No bueno.

And secondarily, there's "no known" connection because people are possibly asymptomatic when they're spreading this. There's some research out there pointing to this being contagious well before symptoms show up.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Aaand we now have a confirmed case in Brazil. I’m sure that will be contained

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Imagine being in a totalitarian regime and you catch this. No bueno.

Speaking of, just wait until we get the first reported case of a brown immigrant with it. What do you think Stephen Miller is gonna do with that information, and a right wing media machine to say it's "only prudent" to trebuchet the entire Latino population, LPR or citizen, over the Rio Grande?

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

And secondarily, there's "no known" connection because people are possibly asymptomatic when they're spreading this. There's some research out there pointing to this being contagious well before symptoms show up.

I think it’s widely accepted now it’s being transmitted with no symptoms and it’s unknown incubation period

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Speaking of, just wait until we get the first reported case of a brown immigrant with it. What do you think Stephen Miller is gonna do with that information?

I mean, trump tweeted that Obama should have hugged each Ebola victim so...

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I think it’s widely accepted now it’s being transmitted with no symptoms and it’s unknown incubation period

Ok, I wasn't 100% sure the research had confirmed it. Thanks.

I was reading another couple of papers (here and here) that were also scary in that it can live on surfaces for days but reassuring that diluted bleach and hand sanitizer work fairly well in killing it on surfaces. When used properly...

[bronconick]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Aaand we now have a confirmed case in Brazil. I’m sure that will be contained

They'll probably just burn down more rain forests to fix it.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Ok, I wasn't 100% sure the research had confirmed it. Thanks.

I was reading another couple of papers (here and here) that were also scary in that it can live on surfaces for days but reassuring that diluted bleach and hand sanitizer work fairly well in killing it on surfaces. When used properly...

I was talking with some pandemic specialist docs yesterday and they reiterated that masks are not helpful for anyone who isn’t sick. You’re better off wiping down everything you touch with sanitizer

[ticapnews]

I was talking with some pandemic specialist docs yesterday and they reiterated that masks are not helpful for anyone who isn’t sick. You’re better off wiping down everything you touch with sanitizer

Just get one of those full-body condoms from The Naked Gun

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I was talking with some pandemic specialist docs yesterday and they reiterated that masks are not helpful for anyone who isn’t sick. You’re better off wiping down everything you touch with sanitizer

Really? I thought they work fine but most people don't use them correctly. They touch the outside of the mask, they re-use them, they don't disinfect their hands after, etc.

I don't disagree that they're ineffective for the masses. PPE is only as effective as the end user adheres to proper procedure. There's a reason they're used in the medical industry and they receive NIOSH/FDA approvals. Similarly, there's a reason I always overspec hearing protection and usually double up on it. I usually use ear inserts AND wear the highest grade of earmuffs I can comfortably wear. Because I know I don't wear the inserts 100% per the specs. I'm probably 90% of the way there. But then I see the average moron at the trap range with the inserts only partially inserted. I'm guessing those offer only 20-50% the protection, on a good day.

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Well, there are signs it’s being transmitted more than via respiratory. And people touch their eyes, etc. you’re better off with the sanitizer

[mookie1995]

Where are the places without a China connection? Iran? An outbreak in Lombardy, Italy started from Chinese tourists. Then traveling Italians have spread out further, I believe. (Spain, Canary Islands)

Chinese are crawling all over Iran.

The Brazilian was in Italy on business.