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Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

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  • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

    Yeah those were me responding to people whining about how I post. It’s almost like they start every single one of these interactions and then you whine about me responding. When that doesn’t happen and I’m not being attacked, I post about things relevant to a thread like this. Thanks for proving my point!
    Last edited by trixR4kids; 02-06-2020, 09:41 PM.

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    • Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
      With 97% in, it’s a near tie. Pete is up three SDEs on Bernie.

      Bernie leads the first popular vote by 6000 and the final by 2500.
      Now at 100%, Pete has a two SDE lead.

      Bernie won the first round vote by 6100 with 43.6k votes.

      Bernie won the final round vote by 2600 with 45.8k.

      There are still inconsistencies everywhere and the AP won’t declare a winner as a result.

      Candidates have until 1 tomorrow to request a recanvass.
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      • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

        Originally posted by Spartanforlife4 View Post
        Now at 100%, Pete has a two SDE lead.

        Bernie won the first round vote by 6100 with 43.6k votes.

        Bernie won the final round vote by 2600 with 45.8k.

        There are still inconsistencies everywhere and the AP won’t declare a winner as a result.

        Candidates have until 1 tomorrow to request a recanvass.
        Technically Mayor Pete won but since the delegate count seems to be a tie lets be done with Iowa already.

        FWIW: Buttigieg making his move in NH as well. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/...ge-nh-polling/
        Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

        Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

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        • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

          Who cares about who won? Won is a stupid construct when what you care about is delegate count in June? They both got about the same.
          Code:
          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment


          • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

            538 model is currently giving Sanders 1:2 odds, followed by "no majority" @ 1:4.
            Biden is currently at 1:5, Warren and Buttigieg are both at 1:20

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            • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

              Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
              Yeah those were me responding to people whining about how I post. It’s almost like they start every single one of these interactions and then you whine about me responding. When that doesn’t happen and I’m not being attacked, I post about things relevant to a thread like this. Thanks for proving my point!
              Be best!

              Comment


              • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                Bernie wins if the race stays fragmented or if Warren drops out sooner than a lot of the centrist candidates.

                If the centrists coalesce behind a single candidate by Super Tuesday, they'll win.

                It's like 2016 trump all over again. And given that none of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar have a reason to drop out anytime soon, putting Bernie's odds at 50/50 is probably correct at this point.

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                • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                  Sounds about right to me.
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                  • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                    Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
                    Yeah those were me responding to people whining about how I post. It’s almost like they start every single one of these interactions and then you whine about me responding. When that doesn’t happen and I’m not being attacked, I post about things relevant to a thread like this. Thanks for proving my point!
                    Since I am That Pontificating Guy may I remind everybody that it is difficult to present a minority opinion on the Cafe since you wind up under a dog pile. This would happen with Bob Grey and Drew on the Right, and it happens with trix on the Left. And in my hypocrisy I'm usually the fattest dog when it happens to people with (granted, lunatic) fundamentalist opinions on religion.

                    I'm not saying don't do it. I'm saying be aware when we're doing it. The person suffocating under the pile is bound to feel pretty sh-tty towards the dogs.
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                    • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                      Originally posted by unofan View Post
                      Bernie wins if the race stays fragmented or if Warren drops out sooner than a lot of the centrist candidates.

                      If the centrists coalesce behind a single candidate by Super Tuesday, they'll win.

                      It's like 2016 trump all over again. And given that none of Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar have a reason to drop out anytime soon, putting Bernie's odds at 50/50 is probably correct at this point.
                      Yes, I agree with this completely. The interesting dynamic here is the person more likely to drop out is the less radical. Usually it's the other way so that person feels the need to Hold The Torch High, but in this case, if you're Warren, why stay in? Bernie is everything Warren is plus more.
                      Cornell University
                      National Champion 1967, 1970
                      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
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                      • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                        Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                        Yes, I agree with this completely. The interesting dynamic here is the person more likely to drop out is the less radical. Usually it's the other way so that person feels the need to Hold The Torch High, but in this case, if you're Warren, why stay in? Bernie is everything Warren is plus more.
                        I think Lizzy can hang in there until Super Tuesday and see how that goes. Its also absurd to be calculating odds after one fuked up Iowa contest. However if she can't break through by then its time for her to endorse someone else (presumably Sanders).
                        Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                        Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                        "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                        Comment


                        • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                          Originally posted by Rover View Post
                          Its also absurd to be calculating odds after one fuked up Iowa contest.
                          That's kind of how Bayesian statistics works though
                          Code:
                          As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                          College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                          BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                          Originally posted by SanTropez
                          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                          Originally posted by Kepler
                          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                          Comment


                          • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.


                            Code:
                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                            Comment


                            • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                              As someone pointed out in the comments, is that interesting or does it just mirror population shifts?

                              Cornell '04, Stanford '06


                              KDR

                              Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
                              iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
                              gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
                              Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
                              Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
                              TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
                              DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

                              Test to see if I can add this.

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                              • Re: Democratic Challengers 9: Can we climb this mountain? I don't know.

                                Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                                As someone pointed out in the comments, is that interesting or does it just mirror population shifts?
                                No clue. But does it matter? Dems do best in college-educated areas. At least recently. The more college-educated people vote, the better we'll do.



                                Also found this nugget today with Walsh dropping out.



                                Joe Walsh is backing any of the Democrats in the field. Why can't Bernie and Yang voters do the same?
                                Code:
                                As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                                College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                                BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                                Originally posted by SanTropez
                                May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                                Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                                I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                                Originally posted by Kepler
                                When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                                He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                                Comment

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