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Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

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  • #991
    Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

    Friend of mine who works for a large corporation in Minneapolis was told today that they may force them to work from home until August now. Remember when we were going to open things up on Sunday?

    Thanks, Mr. President.
    **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

    Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
    Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

    Comment

    • #992
      Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

      Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
      Yet we've known for a long time this could happen. Good thing we got that tax cut through. I don't know what we'd do without that.
      Not like this. I'm sorry, but the previous all-time high in a week was around 650,000. You can't plan for 10x the all-time high.

      I want to be there with you saying we should have been prepared for this, but it has never happened before. Certainly not with online systems. I'm not sure we have a population-adjusted "jobless claims" going back through the Depression (did we have even monthly data for unemployment back then?) but I would be shocked if it was this fast.

      We've approximately tripled the US population since 1920. We've had 15 million new claims in three weeks. I'm curious if we really had 5 million claims in three weeks during the Depression. More data:
      1929 unemployment was 3.2%.
      1930 was 8.7%
      1931 was 15.9%
      1932 was 23.6%
      1933 was 24.9% (jeebus, this is incredible typing these numbers and realizing they're annual, I knew it was nightmarish but for whatever reason this is striking)
      1934 was 21.7%

      So let's say we take an 8% increase over a year. That's still only .75% per month. I don't know if the math works this way, it probably doesn't, but we've crushed that number. We're going to go from 3.5% to 10% effectively overnight. No system can be designed for that.


      Edit: This source indicates we had about 50 million people in the workforce back then https://www2.census.gov/library/publ...9-1945-chD.pdf

      So we would have 4 million people (8%) lose their jobs in 1931-1932. Triple that for population and it's 12 million over a year. Even adjusted we're still 25% higher than that loss and we did it in 6% (3/52) of the time.
      Last edited by dxmnkd316; 04-09-2020, 11:02 AM.
      Code:
      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
      Originally posted by SanTropez
      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
      Originally posted by Kepler
      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

      Comment

      • #993
        Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
        Not like this. I'm sorry, but the previous all-time high in a week was around 650,000. You can't plan for 10x the all-time high.

        I want to be there with you saying we should have been prepared for this, but it has never happened before. Certainly not with online systems. I'm not sure we have a population-adjusted "jobless claims" going back through the Depression (did we have even monthly data for unemployment back then?) but I would be shocked if it was this fast.

        We've approximately tripled the US population since 1920. We've had 15 million new claims in three weeks. I'm curious if we really had 5 million claims in three weeks during the Depression. More data:
        1929 unemployment was 3.2%.
        1930 was 8.7%
        1931 was 15.9%
        1932 was 23.6%
        1933 was 24.9% (jeebus, this is incredible typing these numbers and realizing they're annual, I knew it was nightmarish but for whatever reason this is striking)
        1934 was 21.7%

        So let's say we take an 8% increase over a year. That's still only .75% per month. I don't know if the math works this way, it probably doesn't, but we've crushed that number. We're going to go from 3.5% to 10% effectively overnight. No system can be designed for that.
        We knew a pandemic could happen. This is an OBVIOUS result of this sort of pandemic. We didn't plan for it. We failed. I don't see any other conclusion to draw.
        **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

        Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
        Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

        Comment

        • #994
          Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

          If the workforce is approx. 150-160M people we'd have to lose an astounding 40M jobs to hit some of those Great Depression #'s. If this is expected to be even worse than that then.....Yikes.
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          • #995
            Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

            Originally posted by Rover View Post
            If the workforce is approx. 150-160M people we'd have to lose an astounding 40M jobs to hit some of those Great Depression #'s. If this is expected to be even worse than that then.....Yikes.
            I don't know if anyone can say whether we'll hit it or not. All I'm saying is that the rate at which we've increased has never been seen before in the US. Never.
            Code:
            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
            Originally posted by SanTropez
            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
            Originally posted by Kepler
            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

            Comment

            • #996
              Originally posted by Rover View Post
              If the workforce is approx. 150-160M people we'd have to lose an astounding 40M jobs to hit some of those Great Depression #'s. If this is expected to be even worse than that then.....Yikes.
              Third of the way to it in a fraction of the time.
              “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

              Live Radio from 100.3

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              • #997
                Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                I don't know if anyone can say whether we'll hit it or not. All I'm saying is that the rate at which we've increased has never been seen before in the US. Never.
                I would consider that a consequence of our service and gig-based economy.

                Comment

                • #998
                  Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

                  There is no way anyone could have planned for this even if they planned for a Pandemic. No model done would show the Economy shutting down this hard, this fast in every state. You expect this type of impact over months not weeks. Anyone who says otherwise is using hindsight. Even if Obama was in charge this thing would be tanking...

                  The rent issue is going to be huge. The fact that the Stimulus Bill (oh man I know I noticed the stimulation!!) did nothing to help renters or home owners which is going to cause an even bigger slow down. Every state doesnt have the clout of California who got the banks to agree to forbearance. People think just because some states made it impossible to evict for the time being that changes anything but in reality it doesnt. In fact the only thing it does is kick the overall problem down the road. Banks might not be able to default you, but they can (and will) force a balloon payment after the restrictions are lifted as can landlords with back rent. So yay you wont be homeless now but come August you are right and goodly phukked. And with the housing market slowing...well...yeah.

                  This is gonna get ugly.
                  Last edited by Handyman; 04-09-2020, 11:23 AM.
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                  • #999
                    Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

                    Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
                    I would consider that a consequence of our service and gig-based economy.
                    That is definitely a large part of it.
                    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                    -aparch

                    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                    -INCH

                    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                    -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                    Comment

                    • #1000
                      Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

                      I don't think were at Great Depression levels just yet. Those numbers were spread out five years. As it stands, we are looking at 1.5 years for a good chunk of these people if they are off until we have a viable vaccine (using a best case here). Once that is achieved, we SHOULD be able to "flip the switch" and get many of those people back into their old jobs fairly quickly.

                      There are some factors in play, like how many small businesses fold in that timeframe due to attrition, but I'm not ready to buy into the full Doomsday, Worst Case scenario just yet. Not saying it'll be a cakewalk, but I don't believe it'll be 3-4 years at 20%+ either.
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                      • #1001
                        Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

                        Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                        There is no way anyone could have planned for this even if they planned for a Pandemic. No model done would show the Economy shutting down this hard, this fast in every state. You expect this type of impact over months not weeks. Anyone who says otherwise is using hindsight. Even if Obama was in charge this thing would be tanking...

                        The rent issue is going to be huge. The fact that the Stimulus Bill (oh man I know I noticed the stimulation!!) did nothing to help renters or home owners is going to cause an even bigger slow down. Every state doesnt have the clout of California who got the banks to agree to forbearance. People think just because some states made it impossible to evict for the time being that changes anything but in reality it doesnt. In fact the only thing it does is kick the overall problem down the road. Banks might not be able to default you, but they can (and will) force a balloon payment after the restrictions are lifted as can landlords with back rent. So yay you wont be homeless now but come August you are right and goodly phukked. And with the housing market slowing...well...yeah.

                        This is gonna get ugly.
                        I believe that when people look back and study how we responded to this pandemic, they will conclude the US did the wrong thing. Yes, they will conclude that the federal government screwed up in terms of the speed at which it responded (assuming we can claim they've even responded at all).

                        But the idea of just saying "today we're going to close 40% of our economy" and then deal with it tomorrow is ultimately going to be proven to be a very, very bad idea.
                        That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                        Comment

                        • #1002
                          Re: Business, Economic, and Tax Policy 9: No, No, No, We Compost The Rich

                          oh we'll have an 'i am legend' vaccine in no time.

                          of course when there are zombies popping up everywhere in 2022, president trump will claim "nobody saw these zombies coming" before he called arod again, and will smith to ask what he should do!
                          a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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