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  • #31
    Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

    Originally posted by Rover View Post
    I'd be more nervous about Chump's prospects if his approval ratings would get out of the low 40's. He's basically attracting his base and nothing else, which he seems to realize since he's campaigning 100% to rile up the KKK and isn't even trying to expand his coalition. Could that work? Sure, if Dems stay home. However, the GOP was hoping for this same strategy in 2018 (supercharge the base while the opposition doesn't match their intensity) and they still got crushed, largely under maps drawn up by themselves over the past decade. That's not a good sign for the Chumpster. Are people on the left really any less angry at Trump since the mid terms?
    Was Dump's approval out of the 40s when he won in 2016? Remember, he didn't win because he was liked, he won because Hillary was HATED. Hence the whole Burisma fishing expedition and the attempt to replay that whole EMAILZ/BENGHAZI hoax.
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    • #32
      Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

      Originally posted by Kepler View Post
      Was Dump's approval out of the 40s when he won in 2016? Remember, he didn't win because he was liked, he won because Hillary was HATED. Hence the whole Burisma fishing expedition and the attempt to replay that whole EMAILZ/BENGHAZI hoax.
      You....did read the part where I said "Could that work? Sure, if Dems stay home", right?
      Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

      Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

      "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

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      • #33
        Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

        Originally posted by Kepler View Post
        If you're opening it to the House I'm sure there are several Dem Members who will be hurt by voting for impeachment. There are still a few rural districts out there with Dem representation. They're Dems who probably can't be counted on in the clutch, but that's still better than another Nazi in that seat.
        Exactly. You only need to look at 538's Trump Index to understand this simple concept. A Democrat in a PVI +R district is going to give you far better results than an R. Period.

        Rep.................Trump Margin...Vote /w Trump.....Dem Gain
        Steve Womack.......+31.4%...........98%............+3.3%
        Colin Peterson........+31%.............49%.............. +46%
        Kay Granger...........+30.2%...........97.2%.......... +3.0%

        Reps in Trump+30 districts on average vote with Trump 95% of the time.

        Look at Rick Nolan in MN. A moderate Dem. He voted with Trump 27.8% of the time in a Trump+15 district. His replacement, Pete Stauber, has voted with Trump 91% of the time.
        Tim Walz, also from MN. A liberalish Dem who voted with Trump 20.5% in a T+15 district. His replacement, Jim Hagedorn, 92.9%.

        Look at the Republicans on this list. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...p-score/house/
        Look at the ones who are in just Trump+3 districts and Democrats in Trumpy districts. The GOP is a digital signal. If you are an R, you vote lockstep. If you're a D, you are somewhere between 0-100%. Getting these people primaried and subsequently beat by the GOP means another district that votes nearly 100% with Trump.

        Protect your Ds in red districts. They're more valuable than Ds in blue.


        Edit: My god... Even the Rs in Trump MINUS 15 were voting 98% with Trump.
        Last edited by dxmnkd316; 12-16-2019, 04:11 PM.
        Code:
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College Hockey 6       College Football 0
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        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

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        • #34
          Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

          Originally posted by Rover View Post
          You....did read the part where I said "Could that work? Sure, if Dems stay home", right?
          Yeah, I get that but the point I was alluding to, poorly, is Dump's approval really means nothing. It's our nominee's disapproval that matters. If that gets up into to 40s (where Hillary's was IINM) we are in trouble because of the Spite Vote.
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          • #35
            Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

            Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
            Exactly. You only need to look at 538's Trump Index to understand this simple concept. A Democrat in a PVI +R district is going to give you far better results than an R. Period.

            Rep.................Trump Margin...Vote /w Trump.....Dem Gain
            Steve Womack.......+31.4%...........98%............+3.3%
            Colin Peterson........+31%.............49%.............. +46%
            Kay Granger...........+30.2%...........97.2%.......... +3.0%

            Reps in Trump+30 districts on average vote with Trump 95% of the time.

            Look at Rick Nolan in MN. A moderate Dem. He voted with Trump 27.8% of the time in a Trump+15 district. His replacement, Pete Stauber, has voted with Trump 91% of the time.
            Tim Walz, also from MN. A liberalish Dem who voted with Trump 20.5% in a T+15 district. His replacement, Jim Hagedorn, 92.9%.

            Look at the Republicans on this list. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...p-score/house/
            Look at the ones who are in just Trump+3 districts and Democrats in Trumpy districts. The GOP is a digital signal. If you are an R, you vote lockstep. If you're a D, you are somewhere between 0-100%. Getting these people primaried and subsequently beat by the GOP means another district that votes nearly 100% with Trump.

            Protect your Ds in red districts. They're more valuable than Ds in blue.


            Edit: My god... Even the Rs in Trump MINUS 15 were voting 98% with Trump.
            The appreciation and understanding of this on Kos* is depressingly low, I would say no higher than 60%. We should all understand this. The Republicans do one thing better than we: they understand that while policy is about values politics is about winning. They don't cut their own throats. They don't make purely symbolic stands and wind up costing their constituents representation. Now, obviously that's much easier for Republicans to do since their entire political model is it's a business with an ROI. But we could stand to learn the lesson. It doesn't mean we sell out to the corporate Dems. It means we push right up to the line in every district... but not a step over it.

            *Kos himself, I'd add, does get it.
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            • #36
              Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

              Impeachment isn’t going to win back Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. I’d guess it has less than 50% support there.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                Impeachment isn’t going to win back Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. I’d guess it has less than 50% support there.
                No but letting the president break laws left and Right won’t, either.

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Deutsche Gopher Fan View Post
                  No but letting the president break laws left and Right won’t, either.
                  Obviously it has to be done, but i think it’s a loser politically.

                  I’m convinced he’s going to win re-election, otherwise polling for impeachment would be 60%

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                  • #39
                    Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

                    No, but dems need to spend money in those states and hammer points home, particularly where the tariffs have hurt people. Like, in Kentucky, things like this are things they should promote :

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                    • #40
                      Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

                      Jfc. Enjoy trumptards

                      “ WATCH: Two federal inspectors warned that U.S. pork will soon be “mystery” meat — containing feces, sex organs, toenails, bladders and unwanted hair — after the Trump administration rolled back meat inspection rules for pork. The two inspectors say they wouldn't even eat meat processed by their employer.”

                      https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...eat-inspection

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                      • #41
                        Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

                        Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                        Impeachment isn’t going to win back Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. I’d guess it has less than 50% support there.
                        Depends. Take a look at this latest A+ poll from Marist:
                        http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-cont...1912131159.pdf

                        Look at the pages. The people you need to court are women. WOmen, women, women, women, women. Especially white suburban women who are college educated. They have (my quick estimate) a departure of something like 10-20 points on things like climate change (but not carbon taxes), college loan forgiveness, health care (but not medicare for all), wealth taxes, gun control (and this one is especially big, 30+ point departure for suburban women form men), AND they support impeaching and remove the president by +20.

                        If you look at page 48, you'll see where you're right. The midwest doesn't care about impeachment. (Though, I'm a bit confused by the "Oppose/unsure impeachment and support removal" answer...).

                        Pound the pavement on the issues. Candidates shouldn't even mention "impeachment". They must focus on the issues. If they're asked, immediately pivot.
                        Code:
                        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                        Originally posted by SanTropez
                        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                        Originally posted by Kepler
                        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                        Comment

                        • #42
                          Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

                          Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                          Obviously it has to be done, but i think it’s a loser politically.

                          I’m convinced he’s going to win re-election, otherwise polling for impeachment would be 60%
                          Polling FOR impeachment is higher right now than it was re Nixon during Watergate at this same point.
                          What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

                          Comment

                          • #43
                            Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

                            Originally posted by rufus View Post
                            Polling FOR impeachment is higher right now than it was re Nixon during Watergate at this same point.
                            Nixon didn't have a propaganda network brainwashing a third of the country 24/7.
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                            • #44
                              Re: POTUS: Definitely Needs Anger Management

                              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                              Nixon didn't have a propaganda network brainwashing a third of the country 24/7.
                              And yet, support for impeaching Trump is higher than it was for Nixon.
                              What kind of cheese are you planning to put on top?

                              Comment

                              • #45
                                Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                                Obviously it has to be done, but i think it’s a loser politically.

                                I’m convinced he’s going to win re-election, otherwise polling for impeachment would be 60%

                                Comment

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