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  • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

    Originally posted by Aerman View Post
    Chuck - I didn’t copy your whole post as it was mostly off my topic ... in isolation your point on the first goal is spot on. And watching it happen live I had the same general reaction, he got beat in a gap that shouldn’t exist. I have a little more sympathy, apparently, because I think he had the same thought in his mind that I did which was the pass out front was imminent and he would have to slide over. There was an inadequately covered guy coming down the center and Taylor was trying to watch both players. Although he had the post (softly) his mind was leaning right. Unfortunately for us, the guy with the puck made a hell of a shot. But right up until he shot it I thought he was going to pass. Maybe Ty did as well. As a soccer guy you know how bad it can look when the goalie guesses wrong, but he still has to guess sometimes. All that said, he got beat and has to own it.
    Aerman, you make a very good point. Actually, the "smart" play for the PC kid was probably to pass.

    Putting myself in Leaman's shoes … I'd have muttered "don't shoot … don't sh - great shot, kid!!"
    Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
    Montreal Expos Forever ...

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    • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

      My point on face-offs is that they are much more important during special teams (both power play and penalty kill). There is a reason why the NHL changed the rule on face-off location starting a power play a few years ago. The hope of creating more goals by having the face-off in the offensive zone of the team on the power play. It is not just about the face-off winning percentage for the game. Here are two hypothetical situations: Both situations have each of the two teams having four power plays during the game (This would be eight face-offs starting each of the eight power plays). The first situation has the team winning 8 out of 8 face-offs starting their special teams, then going 18 for 44 during 5 on 5 play for a 52% (26/50) face-off winning percentage. The second situation has the team winning 0 out of the 8 face-offs starting their power play and penalty kill situations for the game, then going 26 for 44 during 5 on 5 play for the same 52% for the game.

      I am saying that face-off winning percentage (gaining possession of the puck off a face-off) is significantly more important during power play and penalty kill situations than during 5 on 5 play.

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      • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

        Originally posted by Ray Dorn View Post
        My point on face-offs is that they are much more important during special teams (both power play and penalty kill). There is a reason why the NHL changed the rule on face-off location starting a power play a few years ago. The hope of creating more goals by having the face-off in the offensive zone of the team on the power play. It is not just about the face-off winning percentage for the game. Here are two hypothetical situations: Both situations have each of the two teams having four power plays during the game (This would be eight face-offs starting each of the eight power plays). The first situation has the team winning 8 out of 8 face-offs starting their special teams, then going 18 for 44 during 5 on 5 play for a 52% (26/50) face-off winning percentage. The second situation has the team winning 0 out of the 8 face-offs starting their power play and penalty kill situations for the game, then going 26 for 44 during 5 on 5 play for the same 52% for the game.

        I am saying that face-off winning percentage (gaining possession of the puck off a face-off) is significantly more important during power play and penalty kill situations than during 5 on 5 play.
        Yes … but is it worth having someone out there taking the draw who isn't one of your regular PP (or PK) guys, who might increase your chances (slightly) of winning that draw, when you then have to live with that player bogging down your PP even when he wins the draw, or hampering your PK unit when he loses that draw?

        Your example cites someone winning 8 out of 8 draws in special teams situations … I say that's not realistic anyway, since you discount entirely that the opposing team is likely going to counter your best guy on the dot with one of their best guys on the dot in most cases.

        Is it preferable to win face-offs instead of losing them? Of course it is. But no one - and I mean, no one - wins them all. And it's not even close. Here is a link to the current list of best NHL men on the dot by percentage of wins. The Flyers' Claude Giroux (59.9%) leads the way among players who have taken at least 100 faceoffs so far this season. That's not a huge chunk over 50%, which again reflects the realities that BOTH teams are going to want their best guys in the circle in high leverage situations.

        https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/stats?...group=1&time=0

        The stats also appear to require each face-off to have a "winner" and a "loser" … and that's not always the case. Not all face-off wins are the same. What this raw data doesn't tell you is what (much smaller) percentage of those "wins" are clean wins - you know, as in you beat the guy cleanly, pull the puck back to your defenseman, who starts up the PP OR has a clean chance at a quick exit clearance. You watch face-offs and you realize that many aren't clean wins - they get kicked around and contested, and no immediate advantage starts. If the puck sticks on the dot for a second, then gets pushed off to the wing boards, where it is contested for a few seconds, then someone finally gets a clean handle 5 seconds or more later … is that really a "face-off win", or did your team just win a puck battle??

        Let's dig a little deeper then … you're on the PP, and you lose that initial draw. They clear. You reorganize, and you come back into the opposition's zone. You've lost, what … 15-20 seconds on average?? That means you still have over 80% of your PP time intact. Hardly the end of the world. On the other side … you're on the PK, and you win that initial draw, and get a clean and quick clearance. The other team is coming back at you in 15-20 seconds. Again, you still have over 80% of that penalty left to kill. Hardly off the hook, right?

        Long and short of it is … yes, it's better to win faceoffs than to lose them. Clean wins - by either side - are even better, as it allows those clean winners to get the PP underway in earnest OR to get that crucial initial clear. But it's a temporary advantage that likely disappears not too long after the face-off. The game returns to the regular flow of play. And it gets more and more difficult to measure that stuff.

        I guess my overarching point here is that FOW isn't some huge game-shifting strategic issue, and it's hardly a deep, dark secret out there waiting for analytic folks to have a "Eureka" moment to justify their existence in hockey. It's a nice piece of data, but more complex than you're making it, by ignoring some of these various little realities that lie not too far beneath the surface. Hockey isn't baseball. JMHO.
        Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
        Montreal Expos Forever ...

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        • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

          2020 is the year of FOW. SOG is so 2019. 😀

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          • Originally posted by scoreboard View Post
            2020 is the year of FOW. SOG is so 2019. 😀
            So, in with Ray Dorn, out with e.cat? :-)

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            • Originally posted by Snively65 View Post
              So, in with Ray Dorn, out with e.cat? :-)
              Stealing signs is out in 2020 also:-)
              UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

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              • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

                Originally posted by scoreboard View Post
                2020 is the year of FOW. SOG is so 2019. ��
                Let me know what years we get to "Corsi" or "Fenwick", so I can plan to rearrange my sock drawer.
                Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                Montreal Expos Forever ...

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                • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

                  Trey Taylor (Ty's brother) commits to Clarkson.
                  Here we go 'Cats!!

                  Comment


                  • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

                    Originally posted by Ray Dorn View Post
                    My point on face-offs is that they are much more important during special teams (both power play and penalty kill). There is a reason why the NHL changed the rule on face-off location starting a power play a few years ago. The hope of creating more goals by having the face-off in the offensive zone of the team on the power play. It is not just about the face-off winning percentage for the game. Here are two hypothetical situations: Both situations have each of the two teams having four power plays during the game (This would be eight face-offs starting each of the eight power plays). The first situation has the team winning 8 out of 8 face-offs starting their special teams, then going 18 for 44 during 5 on 5 play for a 52% (26/50) face-off winning percentage. The second situation has the team winning 0 out of the 8 face-offs starting their power play and penalty kill situations for the game, then going 26 for 44 during 5 on 5 play for the same 52% for the game.

                    I am saying that face-off winning percentage (gaining possession of the puck off a face-off) is significantly more important during power play and penalty kill situations than during 5 on 5 play.
                    And new this year in the NHL the team coming onto the power play even has their choice of which circle to take the faceoff in.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                      Let me know what years we get to "Corsi" or "Fenwick", so I can plan to rearrange my sock drawer.
                      You roll your t shirts?

                      Strike that, given you are a Bentley grad.

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                      • I know I kid a lot, but those were a couple great wins!

                        You’ve made Maine jealous even lately. Imagine what can happen when you rebuild with young coaching with enthusiasm???

                        Comment


                        • Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

                          Originally posted by BlackI View Post
                          I know I kid a lot, but those were a couple great wins!

                          You’ve made Maine jealous even lately. Imagine what can happen when you rebuild with young coaching with enthusiasm???
                          Yeah they definitely were...we have our work cut out for us this weekend too...but hopeful for some points. Maine too...has a big weekend. Going to be interesting! Go 'Cats!!
                          Here we go 'Cats!!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
                            Yeah they definitely were...we have our work cut out for us this weekend too...but hopeful for some points. Maine too...has a big weekend. Going to be interesting! Go 'Cats!!
                            You have a genuine heart. Don’t stop. It flows. Any fan base would love to have you.

                            Passion Strong IT is.

                            -Yoda

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                            • Must be warming up a little in the Downeast ...

                              … looks like some of the denizens are emerging from hibernation.
                              Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                              Montreal Expos Forever ...

                              Comment


                              • Re: Must be warming up a little in the Downeast ...

                                Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                                … looks like some of the denizens are emerging from hibernation.
                                You must mean JvR, who scored a goal and two assists on Saturday night in 4-1 win over Kings, and another goal on Tuesday night in 3-0 win over Pens?

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