Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

    We've got some fun action going at the bye line, as Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, and Harvard continue to battle over just two spots. The team that loses out however will have an excellent chance to advance regardless because SLU is very bad (really all of the bottom three are very bad). There's a similar tussle between RPI and Yale between who will finish 7th and 8th, which is obviously a little less meaningful, but it could mean the difference between hosting an outright awful team or hosting a simply bad team.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1028.2 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Dartmouth
    4. Quinnipiac
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Colgate
    7. Yale
    8. RPI
      —————
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. Union
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  767.8 |  90.9   7.8   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.11 | 37.33
    Ck |  256.6 |   7.1  60.0  20.8   8.2   3.3   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.42 | 32.39
    Da |  160.3 |   1.4  17.6  28.9  24.4  20.1   6.8   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.68 | 29.59
    Qu |  159.8 |   0.3   7.8  24.5  31.3  24.9   9.7   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.08 | 28.53
    Ha |  155.6 |   0.2   6.1  20.8  26.7  31.1  13.3   1.5   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  4.29 | 28.05
    Cg |   75.2 |   0.0   0.7   3.8   8.5  17.6  49.1  14.2   5.7   0.4   0.0   0.0     x |  5.78 | 24.40
    Ya |   61.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.2  13.3  48.8  29.3   5.1   0.6   0.1     x |  7.22 | 20.25
    RP |   50.9 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   7.3  30.7  54.4   6.3   0.4   0.0     x |  7.59 | 19.48
    Pr |   33.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.2   7.3  36.1  25.7  27.4   1.1 |  9.72 | 13.59
    Br |   18.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0  32.0  35.4  29.6   0.7 |  9.94 | 12.90
    Un |   22.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8  20.1  37.6  41.1   0.4 | 10.20 | 12.26
    SL |   11.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.9  97.9 | 11.98 |  5.22
    
       |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  767.8 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.7   5.2   9.0  13.5  17.6  18.5  16.5  10.2   4.8 | 37.33
    Ck |  256.6 |                                                                                                               0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   3.1   5.6   9.9  13.0  17.2  15.9  15.3   9.2   6.2   1.8   0.8                   | 32.39
    Ha |  155.6 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.2   4.1   7.5  10.7  14.7  15.5  16.0  11.8   9.0   4.3   2.3   0.5   0.2                                     | 28.05
    Da |  160.3 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.3   5.6   9.1  11.9  15.0  14.9  14.3  10.2   7.3   3.4   1.7   0.4   0.1                         | 29.59
    Qu |  159.8 |                                                                                   x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.4   2.9   5.7   8.8  13.1  15.1  17.0  13.8  11.4   5.8   3.3   0.8   0.3                                     | 28.53
    Cg |   75.2 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.1   7.1   9.7  12.9  13.7  14.1  11.8   9.4   6.2   3.9   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                         | 24.40
    Ya |   61.9 |                                                               0.0   0.2   0.8   1.8   4.5   7.0  11.5  13.3  15.7  13.8  12.2   8.4   5.6   2.9   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                       | 20.25
    RP |   50.9 |                                                                                 2.6   4.3  12.4  13.7  19.7  15.6  14.4   8.3   5.3   2.2   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                         | 19.48
    Pr |   33.2 |                     0.0   0.2   0.7   1.5   3.7   5.9  10.0  12.1  15.1  14.1  13.4   9.5   6.9   3.7   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                 | 13.59
    Br |   18.7 |                                       1.7   3.6   9.5  12.9  17.5  16.7  14.9  10.4   6.7   3.5   1.7   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                               | 12.90
    Un |   22.1 |                                             7.4  11.2  19.8  18.8  17.7  11.7   7.3   3.6   1.6   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                                 | 12.26
    SL |   11.2 |   7.3  11.8  19.7  19.5  17.4  11.7   7.0   3.4   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                                                                               |  5.22
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Blank outcomes are impossible
    Playoffs:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Da    Qu    Ha    Cg    Ya    RP    Pr    Br    Un    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   3.3 |  96.2
    Da |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.5   2.5   2.9  19.8 |  72.4
    Qu |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.5   3.3   4.9  24.6 |  63.8
    Ha |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   4.7   4.9   5.8  30.7 |  53.8
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   0.1  18.4  21.7  28.0  18.0 |  13.1
    Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.6  29.1  30.9  29.5   2.5 |   0.7
    RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.3        31.4  32.7  26.6   1.0 |   0.1
    Pr |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.1   3.1   3.9         1.4   1.1   0.0 |    NO
    Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   0.7   0.4         0.2   0.0 |    NO
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.2   0.1         0.0 |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    
          KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
    -------------------------------------
    Cr |  767.8 | 100.0  99.0  83.9  66.3
    Ck |  256.6 | 100.0  86.8  52.3  16.9
    Da |  160.3 |  99.4  63.9  22.4   5.8
    Qu |  159.8 |  99.1  59.7  19.5   5.3
    Ha |  155.6 |  98.8  56.2  17.5   4.8
    Cg |   75.2 |  88.9  19.2   2.9   0.6
    Ya |   61.9 |  79.9   9.3   0.9   0.2
    RP |   50.9 |  74.0   5.1   0.4   0.1
    Pr |   33.2 |  28.4   0.5   0.0   0.0
    Br |   18.7 |  13.5   0.1   0.0   0.0
    Un |   22.1 |  15.9   0.1   0.0   0.0
    SL |   11.2 |   2.0   0.0     x     x
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

      I have a question, Colgate has beaten the three teams above them,and they have games in hand on all three. Is this based on just ECAC games or all the regular season games ? They also have a better record by percentage than Harvard and Quinnipiac, and If they win the game in hand on Dartmouth they'll be tied also with Dartmouth.
      Last edited by sshablak; 01-20-2020, 12:37 PM.
      It all starts with the goaltending.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

        Originally posted by sshablak View Post
        I have a question, Colgate has beaten the three teams above them,and they have games in hand on all three. Is this based on just ECAC games or all the regular season games ?
        KRACH is based on all NCAA games, i.e., everything that's not an exhibition.
        RPI Pep Band
        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

          I understand KRACH, I think. I guess when you say "Simulated final standings" n=1,000,000 I thought it meant the computer ran one million or more possible score combinations for each game currently and going forward to the last regular season game, then placing the teams accordingly. Shows how little I know, isn't this how Vegas get's it's odds, running millions of diff game scenarios ?
          Sorry to bother you.
          It all starts with the goaltending.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

            Originally posted by sshablak View Post
            I understand KRACH, I think. I guess when you say "Simulated final standings" n=1,000,000 I thought it meant the computer ran one million or more possible score combinations for each game currently and going forward to the last regular season game, then placing the teams accordingly. Shows how little I know, isn't this how Vegas get's it's odds, running millions of diff game scenarios ?
            Sorry to bother you.
            Let me clarify: The input to my program is the table of results from this season that have already occurred. This provides current point amounts as well as KRACH values for every NCAA team (though we only care about the ECAC teams' values). It then uses those KRACH values to simulate out the remaining games on the ECAC schedule, generating odds as described in the definition of KRACH (i.e., Team A has a percentage chance of beating Team B equal to A's rating divided by the sum of the two teams' ratings), though this is adjusted to allow a flat probability (~13.5%) of ties. In each simulation of the season, the final standings are determined, which allows me to also simulate out the ECAC playoffs. I do this a million times to get as close to a "true" probability as possible, though obviously these odds are only as good as the assumptions that generate them (that KRACH is a true and perfect way of evaluating teams and generating odds).
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

              Thank you, it's getting clearer.
              It all starts with the goaltending.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                We have a seriously tight battle for the bye as Quinnipiac and Harvard are effectively tied for fourth place. Colgate has fallen back toward the lower tier in KRACH, but they've banked enough points and have a soft enough remaining schedule to feel safe in their first round home ice position.

                Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1026.2 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                1. Cornell
                2. Clarkson
                3. Dartmouth
                4. Quinnipiac
                  —————
                5. Harvard
                6. Colgate
                7. Yale
                8. RPI
                  —————
                9. Princeton
                10. Brown
                11. Union
                12. SLU

                Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                Rank and Points breakdown:
                Code:
                   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Cr |  693.7 |  91.6   7.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 37.10
                Ck |  242.2 |   7.8  65.5  15.9   6.9   3.1   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.34 | 32.36
                Da |  142.2 |   0.2  10.6  24.1  25.5  25.8  12.1   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.09 | 28.62
                Qu |  150.2 |   0.3   8.7  27.8  28.0  20.8  12.2   1.9   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  4.06 | 28.42
                Ha |  154.5 |   0.0   6.4  26.3  27.7  26.4  12.0   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.15 | 28.40
                Cg |   76.6 |   0.0   0.8   5.2  11.0  20.9  47.4  11.2   3.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  5.56 | 25.18
                Ya |   62.7 |     x   0.0   0.2   0.7   2.2  10.9  53.2  27.8   4.5   0.5   0.1     x |  7.21 | 20.44
                RP |   46.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.7  28.9  58.5   6.7   0.4   0.0     x |  7.67 | 19.40
                Pr |   32.0 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.9   7.0  34.9  26.0  28.9   1.2 |  9.76 | 13.51
                Br |   18.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0  32.9  34.9  29.2   0.6 |  9.93 | 12.98
                Un |   22.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9  20.9  37.8  39.9   0.4 | 10.18 | 12.35
                SL |   11.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.9  97.8 | 11.98 |  5.24
                
                   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40 |AvgPts
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Cr |  693.7 |                                                                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.4   5.3   9.9  15.7  20.0  21.3  15.2   8.9 | 37.10
                Ck |  242.2 |                                                                                                                 x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.2   5.8  10.0  13.1  17.1  15.7  15.1   9.0   6.2   1.8   0.8             | 32.36
                Da |  142.2 |                                                                                       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.7   5.0   8.9  12.1  16.4  16.0  16.0  10.2   7.4   2.4   1.2                                     | 28.62
                Qu |  150.2 |                                                                                   x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.6   3.2   6.1   9.2  13.5  15.2  16.7  13.4  10.8   5.5   3.1   0.7   0.3                               | 28.42
                Ha |  154.5 |                                                                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.5   5.6   9.0  14.7  16.3  19.2  13.7  11.3   4.0   2.2                                           | 28.40
                Cg |   76.6 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   4.3   6.8  11.2  13.4  16.2  14.4  12.9   8.3   5.4   2.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                               | 25.18
                Ya |   62.7 |                                                               0.0   0.1   0.7   1.5   4.0   6.3  10.7  12.8  15.6  14.0  12.9   8.9   6.2   3.3   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                 | 20.44
                RP |   46.7 |                                                                                 2.9   4.6  12.9  14.1  19.9  15.5  14.0   7.9   5.0   2.0   0.9   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                   | 19.40
                Pr |   32.0 |                     0.1   0.2   0.7   1.6   3.9   6.2  10.3  12.3  15.2  14.0  13.1   9.2   6.7   3.6   1.9   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                                                           | 13.51
                Br |   18.6 |                                       1.6   3.4   9.1  12.5  17.3  16.6  15.1  10.7   7.0   3.7   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.98
                Un |   22.2 |                                             7.0  10.6  19.4  18.5  18.0  12.2   7.8   3.9   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                           | 12.35
                SL |   11.1 |   7.2  11.7  19.6  19.4  17.5  11.8   7.1   3.5   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                                                                         |  5.24
                Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                x means the outcome never occurred.
                Blank outcomes are impossible
                Playoffs:
                Code:
                   |    Cr    Ck    Da    Qu    Ha    Cg    Ya    RP    Pr    Br    Un    SL |   BYE
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
                Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.3   3.0 |  96.2
                Da |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   4.5   4.5   5.0  25.5 |  60.5
                Qu |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.4   4.0   6.1  20.6 |  64.9
                Ha |     x     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   4.4   4.3   4.8  26.1 |  60.4
                Cg |     x     x   0.0     x     x         0.1   0.1  16.9  19.1  25.2  21.4 |  17.1
                Ya |     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0         1.6  28.8  31.0  30.2   2.5 |   0.9
                RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2        31.1  33.3  26.2   0.9 |   0.2
                Pr |     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   2.7   4.1         1.2   0.9   0.0 |    NO
                Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.8   0.9   0.4         0.2   0.0 |    NO
                Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   0.2   0.1         0.0 |    NO
                SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                
                      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                -------------------------------------
                Cr |  693.7 | 100.0  98.9  83.5  65.4
                Ck |  242.2 | 100.0  86.9  53.3  17.5
                Da |  142.2 |  98.8  56.7  18.1   4.8
                Ha |  154.5 |  99.0  59.7  19.9   5.7
                Qu |  150.2 |  98.9  60.1  20.0   5.5
                Cg |   76.6 |  90.3  22.4   3.7   0.8
                Ya |   62.7 |  80.8  10.3   1.1   0.3
                RP |   46.7 |  72.1   4.3   0.4   0.1
                Pr |   32.0 |  27.8   0.5   0.0   0.0
                Br |   18.6 |  13.9   0.1   0.0   0.0
                Un |   22.2 |  16.2   0.1   0.0   0.0
                SL |   11.1 |   2.2   0.0   0.0     x
                0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                x means the outcome never occurred.
                RPI Pep Band
                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                  Well that fight for the byes seems to have collapsed on the back of Dartmouth getting swept by the Capital District pair while Quinnipiac and Harvard went undefeated. As such, we have four teams that look very likely to take byes, four teams that look very likely to host, and four times that will almost definitely be on the road.

                  Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1021.0 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                  1. Cornell
                  2. Clarkson
                  3. Quinnipiac
                  4. Harvard
                    —————
                  5. Colgate
                  6. Dartmouth
                  7. RPI
                  8. Yale
                    —————
                  9. Union
                  10. Brown
                  11. Princeton
                  12. SLU

                  Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                  Rank and Points breakdown:
                  Code:
                     |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Cr |  521.0 |  72.9  22.9   3.9   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x             |  1.32 | 35.39
                  Ck |  250.5 |  23.6  54.1  17.3   4.3   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x                   |  2.04 | 33.34
                  Qu |  183.6 |   3.4  19.8  56.8  17.7   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x       |  2.96 | 31.00
                  Ha |  158.2 |   0.1   3.0  19.6  57.7  14.3   4.6   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x       |  4.00 | 28.82
                  Cg |   74.5 |   0.0   0.1   1.5  10.9  43.3  29.4  11.6   3.1   0.1   0.0     x     x |  5.48 | 24.96
                  Da |   99.4 |   0.0   0.1   0.8   8.0  30.0  41.6  15.6   3.8   0.1   0.0     x     x |  5.75 | 24.63
                  RP |   59.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.9   8.2  18.0  47.1  25.1   0.6   0.0     x     x |  6.89 | 21.47
                  Ya |   57.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.7   5.9  24.4  58.3   7.7   1.6   0.3     x |  7.70 | 19.22
                  Un |   26.7 |           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.5  38.7  42.9  15.7   0.0 |  9.72 | 14.01
                  Br |   21.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.2  37.3  33.7  24.6   0.0 |  9.78 | 13.87
                  Pr |   29.0 |                 x     x     x   0.0   0.2   3.0  15.5  21.8  57.4   2.0 | 10.39 | 12.13
                  SL |   11.5 |                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   2.0  98.0 | 11.98 |  5.17
                  
                     |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Cr |  521.0 |                                                                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.6   4.0   8.1  14.5  19.4  23.2  16.7  11.8 | 35.39
                  Ck |  250.5 |                                                                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.4   5.9   9.1  15.7  16.3  19.9  13.0  11.0   3.5   2.0 | 33.34
                  Qu |  183.6 |                                                                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.4   6.3  11.5  14.9  19.5  16.6  15.3   6.4   3.8                   | 31.00
                  Ha |  158.2 |                                                                                                   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.5   4.0   6.9  13.0  15.4  20.5  15.3  14.2   5.2   3.3                               | 28.82
                  Cg |   74.5 |                                                                                       0.0   0.1   0.6   1.4   4.2   6.9  13.0  14.7  18.8  14.7  13.1   6.7   3.9   1.3   0.5   0.1   0.0                               | 24.96
                  Da |   99.4 |                                                                                 0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   2.3   4.3   9.5  12.1  18.5  16.0  17.2   9.4   7.0   1.8   0.9                                                 | 24.63
                  RP |   59.7 |                                                                                       2.3   3.7  12.5  13.2  21.2  15.7  15.7   7.9   5.2   1.7   0.8   0.1   0.0                                                       | 21.47
                  Ya |   57.3 |                                                               0.5   1.1   4.2   6.4  12.5  13.8  17.6  14.3  12.9   7.8   5.2   2.2   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                       | 19.22
                  Un |   26.7 |                                                   9.1  11.1  22.9  18.6  18.4  10.1   6.2   2.3   1.0   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                           | 14.01
                  Br |   21.3 |                                             4.5   7.3  16.1  17.0  19.2  14.4  10.8   5.8   3.1   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                         | 13.87
                  Pr |   29.0 |               0.2   0.5   2.2   3.7   8.3  10.4  15.7  14.8  15.9  11.1   8.9   4.5   2.6   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0                                                                                                       | 12.13
                  SL |   11.5 |  16.6  20.4  25.0  18.0  11.4   5.3   2.2   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                                                                                               |  5.17
                  Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                  0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                  x means the outcome never occurred.
                  Blank outcomes are impossible
                  Playoffs:
                  Code:
                     |    Cr    Ck    Qu    Ha    Cg    Da    RP    Ya    Un    Br    Pr    SL |   BYE
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
                  Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5 |  99.4
                  Qu |     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   1.9 |  97.7
                  Ha |     x     x   0.0         0.0     x   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.4   3.0  14.1 |  80.4
                  Cg |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.3  11.2  12.7  20.1  43.1 |  12.5
                  Da |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.4  15.5  17.6  27.3  30.2 |   8.8
                  RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.4  32.8  30.1  25.7   8.4 |   1.0
                  Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2        36.0  32.9  19.4   1.8 |   0.2
                  Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5         0.5   0.5   0.0 |    NO
                  Br |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.4   0.5         0.3   0.0 |    NO
                  Pr |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.5   0.3   0.4           x |    NO
                  SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                  Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                  
                        KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                  -------------------------------------
                  Cr |  521.0 | 100.0  97.7  77.8  55.8
                  Ck |  250.5 | 100.0  89.4  54.2  21.8
                  Qu |  183.6 | 100.0  78.9  32.3  11.4
                  Ha |  158.2 |  99.5  71.0  23.7   8.1
                  Cg |   74.5 |  90.4  19.8   3.7   0.8
                  Da |   99.4 |  92.1  27.1   6.1   1.7
                  RP |   59.7 |  79.5   9.0   1.3   0.3
                  Ya |   57.3 |  77.3   6.2   0.8   0.2
                  Un |   26.7 |  21.1   0.4   0.0   0.0
                  Br |   21.3 |  15.5   0.2   0.0   0.0
                  Pr |   29.0 |  20.7   0.4   0.0   0.0
                  SL |   11.5 |   3.9   0.0   0.0     x
                  0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                  x means the outcome never occurred.
                  RPI Pep Band
                  GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                  🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                  2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                  2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                  2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                    We're finally here! Everyone has played the same number of games and every weekend from here on in has 12 ECAC games. The first round tiers are pretty much set, with only Yale and Brown in noticeable danger of swapping places, but the positions themselves could still be pretty fluid. It's somewhat notable that RPI is currently in 5th but is fairly unlikely to stay there. The Engineers will be playing a fairly rough schedule for the last three weeks, but that's weird.

                    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1017.2 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                    1. Cornell
                    2. Clarkson
                    3. Quinnipiac
                    4. Harvard
                      —————
                    5. Colgate
                    6. Dartmouth
                    7. RPI
                    8. Yale
                      —————
                    9. Brown
                    10. Union
                    11. Princeton
                    12. SLU

                    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                    Rank and Points breakdown:
                    Code:
                       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |  524.9 |  79.0  19.9   1.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                         |  1.22 | 36.11
                    Ck |  245.4 |  20.4  63.6  12.2   3.8   0.1   0.0     x     x                         |  2.00 | 33.71
                    Qu |  174.2 |   0.6  13.0  59.6  26.0   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x             |  3.14 | 30.78
                    Ha |  137.2 |   0.0   3.6  26.8  64.1   4.8   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x       |  3.72 | 29.39
                    Cg |   67.5 |     x   0.0   0.3   4.2  47.2  28.6  14.1   5.1   0.6   0.0     x       |  5.70 | 24.06
                    Da |   86.7 |     x     x   0.0   1.1  29.8  40.2  20.9   7.2   0.7   0.1     x       |  6.06 | 23.55
                    RP |   55.5 |     x     x   0.1   0.8  14.3  21.7  37.7  23.9   1.4   0.0     x       |  6.74 | 21.59
                    Ya |   56.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   3.0   8.6  25.4  52.0  10.2   0.7   0.0     x |  7.60 | 19.63
                    Br |   26.4 |                 x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5  10.2  66.0  21.7   0.3     x |  9.08 | 16.24
                    Un |   26.2 |                 x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5  20.6  72.9   4.8   0.0 |  9.81 | 14.22
                    Pr |   21.8 |                             x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   4.5  87.3   7.6 | 11.02 |  9.64
                    SL |   10.9 |                                               x     x   0.0   7.6  92.4 | 11.92 |  5.08
                    
                       |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |  524.9 |                                                                                                                                               x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2   3.6   9.3  16.5  26.3  21.9  20.8 | 36.11
                    Ck |  245.4 |                                                                                                                                             0.0   0.1   0.5   1.3   4.4   7.1  14.5  15.5  21.8  14.2  13.7   4.2   2.7 | 33.71
                    Qu |  174.2 |                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2   2.8   7.3  11.3  20.0  18.7  22.0   9.3   7.1                         | 30.78
                    Ha |  137.2 |                                                                                                               0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   2.0   4.1   9.9  13.3  21.5  17.4  19.2   6.9   5.0                               | 29.39
                    Cg |   67.5 |                                                                                       0.1   0.2   1.3   2.6   7.4  10.0  18.2  16.2  20.1  11.0   9.2   2.3   1.2                                                       | 24.06
                    Da |   86.7 |                                                                                 0.0   0.1   0.7   1.6   5.0   7.7  15.5  15.9  21.8  13.6  12.6   3.6   2.1                                                             | 23.55
                    RP |   55.5 |                                                                                       1.9   3.2  11.5  12.7  21.2  16.0  16.4   8.4   5.8   1.8   0.9   0.1   0.0                                                       | 21.59
                    Ya |   56.6 |                                                                           1.9   3.1  11.3  12.5  21.1  16.0  16.6   8.6   5.9   2.0   0.9   0.1   0.0                                                                   | 19.63
                    Br |   26.4 |                                                               7.3   9.4  21.7  18.3  19.8  11.4   7.5   3.0   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                               | 16.24
                    Un |   26.2 |                                                   7.3   9.4  21.8  18.4  19.8  11.3   7.4   2.9   1.2   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                           | 14.22
                    Pr |   21.8 |               2.0   3.3  11.2  12.3  20.8  15.9  16.6   8.7   6.1   2.0   0.9   0.1   0.0                                                                                                                               |  9.64
                    SL |   10.9 |  18.3  19.8  26.3  17.3  11.1   4.7   1.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                                                           |  5.08
                    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                    x means the outcome never occurred.
                    Blank outcomes are impossible
                    Playoffs:
                    Code:
                       |    Cr    Ck    Qu    Ha    Cg    Da    RP    Ya    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
                    Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1 |  99.9
                    Qu |     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8 |  99.1
                    Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0   4.4 |  94.5
                    Cg |     x     x     x     x         0.1   0.0   0.3   6.8  13.0  28.6  46.1 |   4.5
                    Da |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.5  10.0  19.3  38.0  30.3 |   1.1
                    RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.8  26.2  33.3  22.5  14.8 |   0.9
                    Ya |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5        44.5  30.9   9.4   3.5 |   0.1
                    Br |     x     x     x     x   0.4   0.4   0.6   8.5         1.7   0.3   0.1 |   0.0
                    Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   0.5         0.0   0.0 |    NO
                    Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0           x |    NO
                    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                    
                          KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                    -------------------------------------
                    Cr |  524.9 | 100.0  98.0  79.8  57.9
                    Ck |  245.4 | 100.0  90.4  56.3  22.0
                    Qu |  174.2 | 100.0  80.4  31.8  10.9
                    Ha |  137.2 |  99.9  73.0  22.3   6.9
                    Cg |   67.5 |  89.1  18.3   3.1   0.6
                    Da |   86.7 |  90.6  23.0   4.5   1.2
                    RP |   55.5 |  79.2   9.5   1.3   0.3
                    Ya |   56.6 |  76.5   6.6   0.9   0.2
                    Br |   26.4 |  23.4   0.4   0.0   0.0
                    Un |   26.2 |  21.9   0.3   0.0   0.0
                    Pr |   21.8 |  14.6   0.1   0.0   0.0
                    SL |   10.9 |   4.9   0.0   0.0     x
                    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                    x means the outcome never occurred.
                    Last edited by lugnut92; 02-10-2020, 11:46 PM.
                    RPI Pep Band
                    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                      Interesting.... Cornell takes the Cleary Spittoon 79% of the time, but nearly all of that hinges on beating Clarkson head-to-head. Given their KRACH ratings, Cornell wins that game 525/(525+245) = 68%. That means there are only around 11% of cases where Cornell loses to Clarkson but gets the 1-seed. It’’s probably a little less than that. There are undoubtedly a few cases where Clarkson comes into the final game up by 3 points so that some of those 68% of cases, Cornell does not get the 1-seed, but given their remaining schedules, that must be more than offset by cases where Cornell is up by 3 points and loses to Clarkson. So it’s pretty simple for Cornell: the path to the 1-seed pretty much comes down to the Clarkson game.


                      Edit: With only 32 outcomes each (leading up to the Cornell/Clarkson game), I just ran the numbers. It's 10.2%, not 11%. There's a 32% chance that Cornell will be up by more than 3 points on Clarkson, and only a 0.7% chance that Clarkson will be up by 3 going into that game. Cornell plays 5 of the 6 worst KRACH teams and Clarkson plays 4 of the 6 best teams (not Cornell and not themselves) - the schedules are about as different as they could be.
                      Last edited by LynahFan; 02-11-2020, 06:25 AM.
                      If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                        Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                        Interesting.... Cornell takes the Cleary Spittoon 79% of the time, but nearly all of that hinges on beating Clarkson head-to-head. Given their KRACH ratings, Cornell wins that game 525/(525+245) = 68%. That means there are only around 11% of cases where Cornell loses to Clarkson but gets the 1-seed. It’’s probably a little less than that. There are undoubtedly a few cases where Clarkson comes into the final game up by 3 points so that some of those 68% of cases, Cornell does not get the 1-seed, but given their remaining schedules, that must be more than offset by cases where Cornell is up by 3 points and loses to Clarkson. So it’s pretty simple for Cornell: the path to the 1-seed pretty much comes down to the Clarkson game.


                        Edit: With only 32 outcomes each (leading up to the Cornell/Clarkson game), I just ran the numbers. It's 10.2%, not 11%. There's a 32% chance that Cornell will be up by more than 3 points on Clarkson, and only a 0.7% chance that Clarkson will be up by 3 going into that game. Cornell plays 5 of the 6 worst KRACH teams and Clarkson plays 4 of the 6 best teams (not Cornell and not themselves) - the schedules are about as different as they could be.
                        Certainly the schedule lines up favorably for the Big Red. If they don't take the top seed they'll have no one to blame but themselves.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                          Midweek update! Less than a quarter of the season to go!

                          Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1014.3 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                          1. Cornell
                          2. Clarkson
                          3. Quinnipiac
                          4. Harvard
                            —————
                          5. Dartmouth
                          6. Colgate
                          7. RPI
                          8. Yale
                            —————
                          9. Brown
                          10. Union
                          11. Princeton
                          12. SLU

                          Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                          Rank and Points breakdown:
                          Code:
                             |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Cr |  524.3 |  72.4  27.4   0.2   0.0     x                                           |  1.28 | 36.27
                          Ck |  273.5 |  27.6  70.8   1.3   0.3   0.0                                           |  1.74 | 34.73
                          Qu |  163.7 |   0.0   1.0  69.9  27.7   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                   |  3.30 | 29.83
                          Ha |  133.6 |   0.0   0.8  28.2  66.9   3.4   0.6   0.1   0.0     x                   |  3.75 | 28.94
                          Da |   91.5 |     x     x   0.1   1.8  45.3  27.1  20.1   5.6   0.1   0.0             |  5.82 | 24.10
                          Cg |   62.3 |               0.0   0.9  20.8  33.6  29.9  13.8   0.9   0.1     x       |  6.38 | 22.82
                          RP |   61.1 |     x     x   0.3   2.3  26.0  29.3  30.5  11.5   0.1     x             |  6.22 | 22.81
                          Ya |   59.2 |               0.0   0.0   3.3   9.3  19.0  63.4   4.8   0.2     x       |  7.58 | 20.07
                          Br |   25.1 |                 x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   5.0  68.5  25.4   0.7     x |  9.21 | 15.64
                          Un |   26.2 |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7  24.4  66.9   8.1     x |  9.82 | 14.00
                          Pr |   23.7 |                                             0.0   1.3   7.5  91.0   0.2 | 10.90 | 10.45
                          SL |   10.0 |                                                     x     x   0.2  99.8 | 12.00 |  4.34
                          
                             |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
                          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Cr |  524.3 |                                                                                                                                                         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   2.7   8.1  15.0  27.5  21.7  24.1 | 36.27
                          Ck |  273.5 |                                                                                                                                                         0.0   0.2   1.1   2.4   7.9  11.2  22.1  17.9  23.0   7.9   6.2 | 34.73
                          Qu |  163.7 |                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.4   5.1  12.7  16.5  26.9  17.4  18.3                                     | 29.83
                          Ha |  133.6 |                                                                                                                     0.0   0.1   0.6   1.8   6.1  10.0  21.2  18.9  25.3   8.8   7.1                                     | 28.94
                          Da |   91.5 |                                                                                             0.1   0.4   2.5   4.5  12.9  14.3  24.6  15.6  17.3   4.7   3.1                                                             | 24.10
                          Cg |   62.3 |                                                                                       0.2   0.6   3.4   5.6  15.0  15.3  25.1  14.5  14.7   3.5   2.0                                                                   | 22.82
                          RP |   61.1 |                                                                                                   3.6   5.2  18.1  16.0  24.1  13.8  12.1   4.3   2.3   0.4   0.1                                                       | 22.81
                          Ya |   59.2 |                                                                                 2.8   4.3  15.4  14.7  24.3  14.9  14.5   5.3   3.2   0.5   0.2                                                                         | 20.07
                          Br |   25.1 |                                                              11.7  12.4  26.9  18.4  17.4   7.6   4.1   1.1   0.3   0.0   0.0                                                                                           | 15.64
                          Un |   26.2 |                                                   9.1  10.1  24.1  17.8  19.7   9.6   6.5   2.0   0.9   0.1   0.0                                                                                                       | 14.00
                          Pr |   23.7 |                           6.2   7.4  20.5  16.6  22.2  12.0   9.8   3.3   1.7   0.3   0.1                                                                                                                               | 10.45
                          SL |   10.0 |  32.4  27.3  23.0  10.8   4.6   1.4   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                                                                       |  4.34
                          Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                          x means the outcome never occurred.
                          Blank outcomes are impossible
                          Playoffs:
                          Code:
                             |    Cr    Ck    Qu    Ha    Da    Cg    RP    Ya    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
                          Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
                          Qu |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2 |  98.7
                          Ha |     x     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.4 |  95.9
                          Da |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   9.6  17.1  25.9  45.3 |   1.9
                          Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.3  17.6  27.2  32.2  20.8 |   0.9
                          RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.1  16.1  25.0  30.2  25.9 |   2.6
                          Ya |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.0        51.1  29.4  11.0   3.3 |   0.0
                          Br |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.7   0.0   4.2         0.4   0.0   0.0 |    NO
                          Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.4   0.1         0.0   0.0 |    NO
                          Pr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x           x |    NO
                          SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
                          Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                          
                                KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                          -------------------------------------
                          Cr |  524.3 | 100.0  97.8  80.1  56.7
                          Ck |  273.5 | 100.0  91.9  61.7  25.5
                          Qu |  163.7 | 100.0  78.0  27.2   9.1
                          Ha |  133.6 |  99.9  70.9  20.5   6.2
                          Cg |   62.3 |  83.3  13.4   2.0   0.4
                          Da |   91.5 |  92.6  27.0   5.5   1.4
                          RP |   61.1 |  84.1  13.7   2.1   0.4
                          Ya |   59.2 |  78.9   6.6   0.9   0.2
                          Br |   25.1 |  20.1   0.3   0.0   0.0
                          Un |   26.2 |  20.3   0.3   0.0   0.0
                          Pr |   23.7 |  16.8   0.2   0.0   0.0
                          SL |   10.0 |   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
                          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                          x means the outcome never occurred.
                          RPI Pep Band
                          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                            I am confused how RPI has a higher average rank but a lower average points than Colgate. You would think they'd be more correlated than they appear to be

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                              Originally posted by sezenack View Post
                              I am confused how RPI has a higher average rank but a lower average points than Colgate. You would think they'd be more correlated than they appear to be
                              It's because RPI wins the tiebreak with Colgate if they tie.
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                                Just two weeks to go, and almost every position is still up for grabs, especially in the middle four. This is epitomized by RPI, who somehow has basically even odds for ending up on each of the positions from 5th to 8th, and thus has even odds of hosting each of the bottom four teams in the first round.

                                Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1011.5 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                                1. Cornell
                                2. Clarkson
                                3. Quinnipiac
                                4. Harvard
                                  —————
                                5. Colgate
                                6. Dartmouth
                                7. RPI
                                8. Yale
                                  —————
                                9. Brown
                                10. Union
                                11. Princeton
                                12. SLU

                                Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                                Rank and Points breakdown:
                                Code:
                                   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Cr |  535.6 |  72.3  27.6   0.0   0.0                                                 |  1.28 | 36.57
                                Ck |  279.2 |  27.7  71.8   0.5   0.1                                                 |  1.73 | 35.07
                                Qu |  164.4 |     x   0.5  83.6  15.5   0.4   0.0   0.0     x                         |  3.16 | 30.04
                                Ha |  126.5 |     x   0.1  15.7  79.5   4.0   0.7   0.1   0.0                         |  3.90 | 28.31
                                Cg |   64.2 |               0.1   2.2  39.7  29.7  16.5  11.5   0.4     x             |  5.96 | 23.45
                                Da |   81.5 |               0.0   0.3  21.7  29.2  29.8  18.9   0.1   0.0             |  6.46 | 22.80
                                RP |   59.5 |               0.2   2.4  24.5  24.0  25.0  23.7   0.1     x             |  6.43 | 22.53
                                Ya |   64.9 |               0.0   0.1   9.6  16.4  28.5  44.3   1.2   0.0             |  7.11 | 21.36
                                Br |   26.8 |                           0.0   0.0   0.1   1.6  87.3  10.9   0.0       |  9.09 | 16.30
                                Un |   24.8 |                             x     x   0.0   0.0  10.5  81.1   8.4     x |  9.98 | 13.35
                                Pr |   23.1 |                                                   0.4   8.0  91.5   0.1 | 10.91 | 10.11
                                SL |    9.8 |                                                         0.0   0.1  99.9 |  12.0 |  4.11
                                
                                   |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
                                ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Cr |  535.6 |                                                                                                                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.3  11.9  28.0  22.5  30.8 | 36.57
                                Ck |  279.2 |                                                                                                                                                                     0.5   1.1   6.0   8.3  22.0  17.4  27.5   8.9   8.4 | 35.07
                                Qu |  164.4 |                                                                                                                                 0.1   0.3   1.7   3.6  11.6  14.5  28.7  17.5  22.0                                     | 30.04
                                Ha |  126.5 |                                                                                                                           0.1   0.6   3.7   6.8  20.3  18.4  30.9  10.0   9.2                                           | 28.31
                                Cg |   64.2 |                                                                                                   0.9   2.0  10.4  12.1  28.4  16.8  21.3   5.0   3.2                                                                   | 23.45
                                Da |   81.5 |                                                                                             0.5   1.2   7.1   9.8  25.8  17.9  25.9   6.7   5.0                                                                         | 22.80
                                RP |   59.5 |                                                                                                   4.5   5.7  21.4  16.0  26.0  11.6  11.1   2.4   1.4                                                                   | 22.53
                                Ya |   64.9 |                                                                                             4.7   6.1  23.0  17.1  27.0  11.0   8.9   1.6   0.6                                                                         | 21.36
                                Br |   26.8 |                                                                    15.0  13.5  31.3  17.1  15.7   4.9   2.2   0.3   0.1                                                                                                 | 16.30
                                Un |   24.8 |                                                  15.1  13.4  30.3  16.7  15.8   5.2   2.9   0.5   0.1                                                                                                                   | 13.35
                                Pr |   23.1 |                           8.3   8.4  24.3  16.2  22.7   9.4   8.2   1.7   0.9                                                                                                                                           | 10.11
                                SL |    9.8 |  39.7  26.9  21.4   8.1   3.1   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0                                                                                                                                                                   |  4.11
                                Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                                0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                                x means the outcome never occurred.
                                Blank outcomes are impossible
                                Playoffs:
                                Code:
                                   |    Cg    Da    RP    Ya    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
                                ------------------------------------------------------------
                                Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
                                Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
                                Qu |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4 |  99.6
                                Ha |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.0 |  95.3
                                Cg |         0.0   0.0   0.0  12.2  16.9  28.4  39.7 |   2.2
                                Da |   0.0         0.0   0.0  19.3  30.2  28.3  21.7 |   0.3
                                RP |   0.0   0.0         0.0  23.6  24.4  24.7  24.5 |   2.6
                                Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.0        43.1  28.2  17.8   9.6 |   0.1
                                Br |   0.3   0.1   0.1   1.1         0.1   0.0   0.0 |    NO
                                Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0           x     x |    NO
                                Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                                
                                      KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                                -------------------------------------
                                Cr |  535.6 |   BYE  97.6  80.8  57.3
                                Ck |  279.2 |   BYE  91.6  62.3  25.7
                                Qu |  164.4 | 100.0  79.2  28.0   9.2
                                Ha |  126.5 |  99.9  72.0  19.5   5.7
                                Cg |   64.2 |  87.4  17.4   2.7   0.5
                                Da |   81.5 |  88.6  19.1   3.4   0.9
                                RP |   59.5 |  83.4  12.6   1.8   0.4
                                Ya |   64.9 |  82.0   9.8   1.4   0.4
                                Br |   26.8 |  20.2   0.3   0.0   0.0
                                Un |   24.8 |  17.8   0.2   0.0   0.0
                                Pr |   23.1 |  16.2   0.1   0.0   0.0
                                SL |    9.8 |   4.4   0.0   0.0     x
                                0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                                x means the outcome never occurred.
                                Last edited by lugnut92; 02-19-2020, 01:08 PM.
                                RPI Pep Band
                                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X