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ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

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  • #31
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    It's because RPI wins the tiebreak with Colgate if they tie.
    Then why is Colgate higher, fifth vs RPI seventh ?
    It all starts with the goaltending.

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

      Originally posted by sshablak View Post
      Then why is Colgate higher, fifth vs RPI seventh ?
      If you look at the point distributions, because of their remaining schedule and relative strength, Colgate is relatively likely to end up with more points than RPI. As you can see, Colgate has a nearly 50% chance of doing better than .500 over the final four games, while RPI is only about 25% to do better than .500. In the cases where the two teams end up with exactly the same number of points, RPI wins the tiebreak, but that's a relatively unlikely outcome.

      EDIT: To expand on this, because Colgate and RPI don't play each other again, their point distributions are independent so we can easily determine the likelihood of each outcome (i.e., Colgate ahead, RPI ahead, and a tie). Colgate ends up leading RPI ~57% of the time, RPI leads ~27% of the time, and the teams tie ~16%. It's obviously possible that other teams could be involved with the tie, which would change how it is broken. For example, if Yale joined the tie, we could end up with a scenario where RPI swept Colgate, Colgate split with Yale, and Yale swept RPI, which would lead Yale to sit atop both.

      That Colgate@Yale and RPI@Dartmouth are still upcoming makes this all very wide open.
      Last edited by lugnut92; 02-17-2020, 11:38 AM.
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

        Ahhhh….tyvm lug ! I didn't realise the remaining games were also simulated according to projected wins. I did know RPI has a tougher remaining schedule, ty again !
        It all starts with the goaltending.

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

          Midweekend update!

          Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 387,420,489 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
          1. Cornell
          2. Clarkson
          3. Harvard
          4. Quinnipiac
            —————
          5. RPI
          6. Dartmouth
          7. Colgate
          8. Yale
            —————
          9. Brown
          10. Union
          11. Princeton
          12. SLU

          Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

          Rank and Points breakdown:
          Code:
             |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
          -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Cr |  531.3 |  85.6  14.4                                                             |  1.14 | 36.93
          Ck |  242.5 |  14.4  84.8   0.8     x                                                 |  1.86 | 33.64
          Ha |  140.2 |         0.8  64.9  32.8   1.5   0.0   0.0                               |  3.35 | 29.66
          Qu |  143.8 |           x  34.0  63.6   2.3   0.1   0.0     x                         |  3.68 | 28.50
          RP |   67.4 |               0.3   3.3  56.4  23.9  13.6   2.5   0.0                   |  5.55 | 24.03
          Da |   82.5 |               0.0   0.2  29.6  29.3  31.1   9.7   0.1                   |  6.21 | 23.13
          Cg |   58.0 |               0.0   0.0   6.0  30.5  30.3  31.2   2.0                   |  6.93 | 22.03
          Ya |   65.3 |                     0.0   4.3  16.2  24.6  49.9   5.0     x             |  7.35 | 21.14
          Br |   30.9 |                             x   0.0   0.5   6.7  91.9   1.0     x       |  8.93 | 17.79
          Un |   24.8 |                                               x   1.0  96.9   2.1     x | 10.01 | 13.32
          Pr |   23.1 |                                                         2.1  97.9   0.0 | 10.98 | 10.04
          SL |    9.6 |                                                               0.0 100.0 | 12.00 |  3.79
          
             |  KRACH |     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Cr |  531.3 |                                                                                                                                                                                 0.0   0.2   2.1   7.6  26.1  22.7  41.4 | 36.93
          Ck |  242.5 |                                                                                                                                                                     2.2   3.6  18.3  15.9  36.9  10.9  12.2             | 33.64
          Ha |  140.2 |                                                                                                                                       0.2   0.8   5.4   9.5  29.1  20.2  34.7                                           | 29.66
          Qu |  143.8 |                                                                                                                                 0.5   1.3   7.7  10.5  30.0  18.7  31.3                                                 | 28.50
          RP |   67.4 |                                                                                                               6.2   6.9  28.3  16.3  28.0   7.3   7.0                                                                   | 24.03
          Da |   82.5 |                                                                                                         5.0   6.1  26.8  16.6  30.8   7.7   7.0                                                                         | 23.13
          Cg |   58.0 |                                                                                                   3.9   6.3  30.6  17.6  29.9   6.7   5.0                                                                               | 22.03
          Ya |   65.3 |                                                                                             5.5   6.3  26.3  16.2  29.8   7.9   7.9                                                                                     | 21.14
          Br |   30.9 |                                                                                21.6  15.5  38.2  13.6   9.4   1.4   0.4                                                                                                 | 17.79
          Un |   24.8 |                                                        36.1  20.5  27.5   9.1   5.7   0.9   0.3                                                                                                                         | 13.32
          Pr |   23.1 |                                20.4  14.1  32.7  13.5  14.6   2.9   1.9                                                                                                                                                 | 10.04
          SL |    9.6 |  51.0  25.9  17.3   4.5   1.1   0.1   0.0                                                                                                                                                                               |  3.79
          Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
          x means the outcome never occurred.
          Blank outcomes are impossible
          Playoffs:
          Code:
             |    RP    Da    Cg    Ya    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
          ------------------------------------------------------------
          Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   BYE
          Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   BYE
          Ha |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.5 |  98.5
          Qu |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   2.3 |  97.6
          RP |           x   0.0   0.0   2.6  13.6  23.8  56.4 |   3.6
          Da |     x         0.0   0.0   9.8  31.1  29.2  29.6 |   0.2
          Cg |   0.0   0.0         0.2  31.0  30.3  30.5   6.0 |   0.0
          Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.2        49.5  24.6  16.3   4.3 |   0.0
          Br |   0.0   0.0   1.8   4.8         0.5   0.0     x |    NO
          Un |     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
          Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
          
                KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
          -------------------------------------
          Cr |  531.3 |   BYE  97.9  81.4  59.9
          Ck |  242.5 |   BYE  89.4  58.2  22.2
          Ha |  140.2 | 100.0  74.5  25.6   7.6
          Qu |  143.8 | 100.0  74.5  24.3   7.7
          RP |   67.4 |  90.7  20.7   3.5   0.7
          Da |   82.5 |  89.5  22.3   4.1   1.1
          Cg |   58.0 |  77.7  10.1   1.4   0.3
          Ya |   65.3 |  79.1   9.7   1.5   0.4
          Br |   30.9 |  25.0   0.5   0.0   0.0
          Un |   24.8 |  17.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
          Pr |   23.1 |  16.2   0.1   0.0   0.0
          SL |    9.6 |   3.9   0.0   0.0     x
          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
          x means the outcome never occurred.
          RPI Pep Band
          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

            Lugnut,
            You have RPI as 0.0% of the time in 9th. If I understand things correctly, that means that for at least one of the 1,000,000 simulations which you made (but less than 0.05%), they were 9th. So in those simulations, one of the bottom four teams finished 8th (or higher). Yet, although Brown has an "x" by 8th, they did not finish 8th in any of your 1,000,000 simulations. What have I missed?
            sigpic

            Let's Go 'Tute!

            Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

            2012 Poser Of The Year

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

              Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
              Lugnut,
              You have RPI as 0.0% of the time in 9th. If I understand things correctly, that means that for at least one of the 1,000,000 simulations which you made (but less than 0.05%), they were 9th. So in those simulations, one of the bottom four teams finished 8th (or higher). Yet, although Brown has an "x" by 8th, they did not finish 8th in any of your 1,000,000 simulations. What have I missed?
              A row, given Union has the x by 8th.

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                Lugnut,
                You have RPI as 0.0% of the time in 9th. If I understand things correctly, that means that for at least one of the 1,000,000 simulations which you made (but less than 0.05%), they were 9th. So in those simulations, one of the bottom four teams finished 8th (or higher). Yet, although Brown has an "x" by 8th, they did not finish 8th in any of your 1,000,000 simulations. What have I missed?
                Originally posted by NPC19850330 View Post
                A row, given Union has the x by 8th.
                Brown is the only bottom four team that can make it up. I have an x for Union and 8th since they can technically tie Yale, but they lose that tie so it should be a blank. RPI fell to 9th in 73 sims.
                RPI Pep Band
                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                  Originally posted by NPC19850330 View Post
                  A row, given Union has the x by 8th.
                  Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                  Brown is the only bottom four team that can make it up. I have an x for Union and 8th since they can technically tie Yale, but they lose that tie so it should be a blank. RPI fell to 9th in 73 sims.
                  My monitor must be tilted, and I could not follow the rows.
                  sigpic

                  Let's Go 'Tute!

                  Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                  2012 Poser Of The Year

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                    Well, we're zeroing in on it, with just one weekend left to play. Everyone is pretty sure what they'll be doing for the first week of the playoffs, but there is some intrigue whereby RPI could jump up into a bye or Brown could snipe a home-ice spot for the first round. Further, the actual first round matchups are still pretty fluid.

                    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 531,441 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                    1. Cornell
                    2. Clarkson
                    3. Quinnipiac
                    4. Harvard
                      —————
                    5. RPI
                    6. Dartmouth
                    7. Yale
                    8. Colgate
                      —————
                    9. Brown
                    10. Union
                    11. Princeton
                    12. SLU

                    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                    Rank and Points breakdown:
                    Code:
                       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |  528.6 |  79.5  20.5                                                             |  1.20 | 37.14
                    Ck |  249.8 |  20.5  79.5                                                             |  1.80 | 34.25
                    Qu |  145.3 |              80.3  19.1   0.6                                           |  3.29 | 28.87
                    Ha |  116.3 |              18.4  65.3  16.4                                           |  3.98 | 27.78
                    RP |   70.5 |               1.3  15.6  60.1  16.8   6.1     x                         |  5.11 | 24.74
                    Da |   78.7 |                          16.5  37.1  28.0  18.4     x                   |  6.48 | 22.51
                    Ya |   70.0 |                           6.5  35.1  41.6  16.6   0.3                   |  6.69 | 22.15
                    Cg |   53.1 |                             x  11.0  24.1  62.1   2.8                   |  7.57 | 20.98
                    Br |   30.3 |                                   x   0.1   2.9  96.5   0.4             |  8.97 | 17.57
                    Un |   24.4 |                                                   0.4  99.6     x       | 10.00 | 12.98
                    Pr |   22.1 |                                                           x  99.9   0.1 | 11.00 |  9.41
                    SL |   12.1 |                                                               0.1  99.9 | 12.00 |  5.63
                    
                       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Cr |  528.6 |                                                                                                                                                                                 0.5   4.0  26.4  19.3  49.8 | 37.14
                    Ck |  249.8 |                                                                                                                                                                     8.9  10.0  48.0  13.4  19.8             | 34.25
                    Qu |  145.3 |                                                                                                                                 4.2   5.8  30.6  17.5  41.9                                                 | 28.87
                    Ha |  116.3 |                                                                                                                           4.9   6.4  33.3  16.9  38.6                                                       | 27.78
                    RP |   70.5 |                                                                                                              24.6  13.4  38.8   9.9  13.3                                                                   | 24.74
                    Da |   78.7 |                                                                                             8.3   8.3  38.1  15.0  30.3                                                                                     | 22.51
                    Ya |   70.0 |                                                                                            12.1  10.6  46.2  12.6  18.4                                                                                     | 22.15
                    Cg |   53.1 |                                                                                      11.5  11.8  54.4  11.5  10.7                                                                                           | 20.98
                    Br |   30.3 |                                                                    26.1  14.6  43.0   8.8   7.5                                                                                                             | 17.57
                    Un |   24.4 |                                            47.3  18.5  26.4   4.7   3.1                                                                                                                                     | 12.98
                    Pr |   22.1 |                    32.9  15.6  36.3   7.7   7.6                                                                                                                                                             |  9.41
                    SL |   12.1 |  59.6  20.9  16.8   2.4   0.3                                                                                                                                                                               |  5.63
                    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                    x means the outcome never occurred.
                    Blank outcomes are impossible
                    Playoffs:
                    Code:
                       |    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
                    ------------------------------------------------------
                    Qu |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.6 |  99.4
                    Ha |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0  16.4 |  83.6
                    RP |     x     x     x     x   6.1  16.9  60.0 |  16.9
                    Da |           x     x  18.4  28.1  37.1  16.5 |    NO
                    Ya |     x         0.1  16.5  41.5  35.0   6.5 |    NO
                    Cg |     x     x        62.1  24.1  11.0     x |    NO
                    Br |     x   0.3   2.6         0.1     x     x |    NO
                    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                    
                          KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                    -------------------------------------
                    Cr |  528.6 |   BYE  97.9  82.4  60.1
                    Ck |  249.8 |   BYE  90.4  60.9  23.9
                    Qu |  145.3 | 100.0  74.5  26.6   8.1
                    Ha |  116.3 |  99.6  67.0  18.0   5.1
                    RP |   70.5 |  93.1  27.7   5.0   1.0
                    Da |   78.7 |  87.2  20.3   3.7   1.0
                    Ya |   70.0 |  83.9  15.7   2.6   0.6
                    Cg |   53.1 |  72.6   5.6   0.7   0.2
                    Br |   30.3 |  26.6   0.5   0.0   0.0
                    Un |   24.4 |  17.6   0.2   0.0   0.0
                    Pr |   22.1 |  14.4   0.1   0.0   0.0
                    SL |   12.1 |   5.1   0.0   0.0     x
                    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                    x means the outcome never occurred.
                    RPI Pep Band
                    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                      Midweekend update! HUGE DISCLAIMER: This sim doesn't know how to do the points againt top 4 tiebreaker, so it will break the possible Dartmouth/Yale tie randomly instead of always choosing Dartmouth.

                      Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 729 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                      1. Cornell
                      2. Clarkson
                      3. Quinnipiac
                      4. Harvard
                        —————
                      5. RPI
                      6. Dartmouth
                      7. Yale
                      8. Colgate
                        —————
                      9. Brown
                      10. Union
                      11. Princeton
                      12. SLU

                      Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                      Rank and Points breakdown:
                      Code:
                         |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Cr |  529.1 | 100.0                                                                   |  1.00 | 37.33
                      Ck |  239.3 |       100.0                                                             |  2.00 | 33.67
                      Qu |  148.3 |             100.0                                                       |  3.00 | 29.29
                      Ha |  104.8 |                    47.1  52.9                                           |  4.53 | 26.55
                      RP |   77.4 |                    52.9  47.1                                           |  4.47 | 25.97
                      Da |   82.4 |                                50.4  19.8  29.7                         |  6.79 | 23.03
                      Ya |   73.6 |                                32.4  67.6                               |  6.68 | 22.71
                      Cg |   55.4 |                                17.2  12.6  70.3                         |  7.53 | 21.56
                      Br |   29.4 |                                                 100.0                   |  9.00 | 17.14
                      Un |   23.7 |                                                       100.0             | 10.00 | 12.45
                      Pr |   21.1 |                                                             100.0       | 11.00 |  8.86
                      SL |   12.0 |                                                                   100.0 | 12.00 |  5.44
                      
                         |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Cr |  529.1 |                                                                                                                                                                                            27.0  13.4  59.6 | 37.33
                      Ck |  239.3 |                                                                                                                                                                          59.6  13.4  27.0                   | 33.67
                      Qu |  148.3 |                                                                                                                                            28.7  13.5  57.8                                                 | 29.29
                      Ha |  104.8 |                                                                                                                          15.9  13.4  70.6                                                                   | 26.55
                      RP |   77.4 |                                                                                                                          44.6  13.5  41.9                                                                   | 25.97
                      Da |   82.4 |                                                                                                        41.9  13.5  44.6                                                                                     | 23.03
                      Ya |   73.6 |                                                                                                        57.8  13.5  28.7                                                                                     | 22.71
                      Cg |   55.4 |                                                                                            15.5  13.4  71.1                                                                                                 | 21.56
                      Br |   29.4 |                                                                    36.3  13.4  50.3                                                                                                                         | 17.14
                      Un |   23.7 |                                            70.6  13.4  15.9                                                                                                                                                 | 12.45
                      Pr |   21.1 |                    50.3  13.4  36.3                                                                                                                                                                         |  8.86
                      SL |   12.0 |  71.1  13.4  15.5                                                                                                                                                                                           |  5.44
                      Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                      x means the outcome never occurred.
                      Blank outcomes are impossible
                      Playoffs:
                      Code:
                         |    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
                      ------------------------------------
                      Ha |                    52.9 |  47.1
                      RP |                    47.1 |  52.9
                      Da |  29.7  19.8  50.4       |    NO
                      Ya |        67.6  32.4       |    NO
                      Cg |  70.3  12.6  17.2       |    NO
                      Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                      
                            KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                      -------------------------------------
                      Cr |  529.1 |   BYE  98.0  84.2  62.1
                      Ck |  239.3 |   BYE  87.4  56.5  21.4
                      Qu |  148.3 |   BYE  73.9  30.8   8.7
                      Ha |  104.8 |  98.5  60.3  14.4   4.1
                      RP |   77.4 |  97.7  38.1   7.3   1.7
                      Da |   82.4 |  86.9  18.9   3.4   1.0
                      Ya |   73.6 |  85.8  16.7   2.6   0.8
                      Cg |   55.4 |  74.6   6.0   0.8   0.2
                      Br |   29.4 |  24.6   0.4   0.0   0.0
                      Un |   23.7 |  15.3   0.1   0.0   0.0
                      Pr |   21.1 |  12.8   0.1   0.0   0.0
                      SL |   12.0 |   3.9   0.0   0.0     x
                      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                      x means the outcome never occurred.
                      RPI Pep Band
                      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                        As always, with the end of the regular season this thread will transition to a KRACH-based playoff prediction thread! The first round is expected to go chalk, though Brown has a decent shot of knocking off Colgate. Moving forward, RPI is the only bye team that doesn't have a better than 50/50 shot to make it to Lake Placid, though they're not far off. In the end, Cornell is a 2:1 favorite to win it all.

                        Anyway, it's the playoffs and something weird always happens, so let's just watch!

                        Summary:
                        Code:
                              KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                        Cr |  585.0 |   BYE  98.8  85.7  65.1
                        Ck |  230.6 |   BYE  88.0  54.9  19.0
                        Qu |  156.8 |   BYE  75.5  32.8   9.0
                        RP |   83.9 |   BYE  41.0   7.8   1.8
                        Ha |  108.0 |  96.9  57.6  13.2   3.6
                        Da |   75.8 |  89.3  22.9   3.7   0.9
                        Ya |   70.2 |  84.6  12.8   1.5   0.5
                        Cg |   53.2 |  68.5   2.8   0.4   0.1
                        Br |   31.8 |  31.5   0.5   0.0   0.0
                        Un |   23.2 |  15.4   0.1   0.0   0.0
                        Pr |   19.3 |  10.7   0.0   0.0   0.0
                        SL |   12.8 |   3.1   0.0   0.0     x
                        Future Round Matchups:
                        Code:
                         QF|    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
                        Cr |                    50.1  23.1  13.3  10.3   3.1
                        Ck |              73.2  16.7   7.7   2.0   0.3      
                        Qu |        86.5  11.1   1.6   0.7   0.1           
                        RP |  96.9   2.8   0.3   0.0   0.0                  
                        
                         SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
                        Cr |        27.0  37.6  19.5  12.4   1.8   0.4   0.0   0.0      
                        Ck |  65.7   8.7  12.3   0.3   0.0   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0
                        Qu |         4.0   5.7   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                        RP |                     1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                        Ha |                     1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0      
                        Da |                           0.1   0.0   0.0     x           x
                        Ya |                                 0.0     x           x     x
                        Cg |                                             0.0     x     x
                        Br |                                               x     x     x
                        Un |                                                     x     x
                        
                          F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
                        Cr |  46.7  27.8   3.8   6.2   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x            
                        Ck |         0.4   2.2   3.7   1.7   0.2   0.0   0.0     x            
                        Qu |               1.4   2.4   0.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                        RP |                           0.2   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
                        Ha |                           0.4   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0      
                        Da |                                 0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0
                        Ya |                                       0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0
                        Cg |                                                   0.0     x     x
                        Br |                                                     x     x     x
                        Un |                                                           x     x
                        Pr |                                                                 x
                        
                        0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
                        x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
                        Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
                        Last edited by lugnut92; 03-01-2020, 07:20 PM.
                        RPI Pep Band
                        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                          Despite two upsets in game one, all four top seeds are still favored to advance to the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, SLU is in a preeeeety deep hole.

                          Summary:
                          Code:
                                KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                          Cr |  576.3 |   BYE  99.1  86.0  64.8
                          Ck |  229.8 |   BYE  91.5  56.5  19.5
                          Qu |  156.4 |   BYE  80.1  34.0   9.3
                          RP |   83.5 |   BYE  40.5   7.2   1.7
                          Ha |  108.7 |  98.9  59.1  12.8   3.7
                          Da |   67.2 |  56.1  12.3   1.7   0.4
                          Ya |   62.5 |  50.0   7.7   0.9   0.3
                          Cg |   56.0 |  87.9   8.4   0.8   0.2
                          Br |   30.0 |  12.1   0.4   0.0   0.0
                          Un |   25.8 |  50.0   0.8   0.0   0.0
                          Pr |   22.5 |  43.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
                          SL |   12.7 |   1.1   0.0   0.0     x
                          Future Round Matchups:
                          Code:
                           QF|    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
                          Cr |                    24.5   3.4  27.7  43.4   1.1
                          Ck |              27.8  43.6   6.0  22.0   0.5      
                          Qu |        55.5  22.0  19.6   2.7   0.2            
                          RP |  98.9   0.6   0.2   0.2   0.0                  
                          
                           SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
                          Cr |        29.4  42.9  10.8   7.2   7.7   0.4   0.6   0.0      
                          Ck |  72.7   7.3  10.7   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.0
                          Qu |         3.0   4.3   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                          RP |                     0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                          Ha |                     0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0      
                          Da |                           0.0   0.0   0.0     x           x
                          Ya |                                 0.0   0.0           x     x
                          Cg |                                             0.0     x     x
                          Br |                                               x     x     x
                          Un |                                                     x     x
                          
                            F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Cg    Br    Un    Pr    SL 
                          Cr |  48.3  28.9   3.0   5.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0            
                          Ck |         0.3   2.3   4.2   0.8   0.3   0.2   0.0   0.0            
                          Qu |               1.5   2.8   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
                          RP |                           0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                          Ha |                           0.2   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
                          Da |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x
                          Ya |                                       0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x
                          Cg |                                                   0.0   0.0     x
                          Br |                                                   0.0     x     x
                          Un |                                                           x     x
                          Pr |                                                                 x
                          
                          0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
                          x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
                          Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
                          RPI Pep Band
                          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                            Last night went from looking like we were headed to 4 sweeps to a thrilling night of two OTs and as many as three games today, then back to just one split series needing to be resolved this afternoon. This means two of next weekends matchups are set and two are yet to be decided.

                            Summary:
                            Code:
                                  KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                            Cr |  569.9 |   BYE  99.5  86.1  64.6
                            Ck |  230.9 |   BYE  91.6  56.7  19.8
                            Qu |  156.0 |   BYE  79.9  33.7   9.2
                            RP |   83.4 |   BYE  39.8   7.0   1.7
                            Ha |  110.1 |   100  60.2  13.1   3.9
                            Ya |   65.1 |  72.4  15.2   2.1   0.5
                            Cg |   58.7 |   100  12.7   1.2   0.4
                            Un |   24.7 |  27.6   0.7   0.0   0.0
                            Pr |   25.5 |   100   0.5   0.1   0.0
                            Da |   60.8 |     x     x     x     x
                            Br |   28.4 |     x     x     x     x
                            SL |   12.4 |     x     x     x     x
                            Future Round Matchups:
                            Code:
                             QF|    Ha    Ya    Cg    Un    Pr 
                            Cr |                           100
                            Ck |              72.4  27.6      
                            Qu |        72.4  27.6            
                            RP |   100                        
                            
                             SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Un    Pr 
                            Cr |     x  29.0  43.8  13.5  12.5   0.7      
                            Ck |  72.8   7.3  11.0     x     x         0.5
                            Qu |         2.8   4.3           x     x   0.0
                            RP |                     0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0
                            Ha |                     1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0
                            Ya |                           0.0           x
                            Cg |                                 0.0     x
                            
                              F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Un    Pr 
                            Cr |  48.5  28.7   2.9   5.3   0.6   0.0     x      
                            Ck |         0.2   2.3   4.3   1.0   0.3     x      
                            Qu |               1.5   2.9     x   0.4   0.0   0.0
                            RP |                           0.1   0.2   0.0   0.0
                            Ha |                           0.3   0.3   0.0   0.0
                            Ya |                                 0.1         0.0
                            Cg |                                       0.0   0.0
                            Un |                                             0.0
                            
                            0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
                            x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
                            Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
                            RPI Pep Band
                            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                              One round down, three to go! We say goodbye to Dartmouth, Union, Brown, and SLU, and welcome back our four bye teams. As we've said all along, Harvard is the only road team favored to pull off the upset, as they are 3-to-2 favorites over hosting RPI. Meanwhile, Cornell is positioned to lay down a veritable whooping on Princeton, who are, at least according to KRACH, 200-to-1 underdogs. Woof. (or should I say meow?)

                              Summary:
                              Code:
                                    KRACH |    QF    SF     F
                              Cr |  570.4 |  99.5  86.1  64.9
                              Ck |  231.1 |  89.3  55.5  19.4
                              Qu |  155.8 |  78.2  33.3   9.1
                              RP |   83.2 |  39.6   7.3   1.7
                              Ha |  110.2 |  60.4  13.7   3.9
                              Ya |   67.4 |  21.8   3.0   0.7
                              Cg |   58.6 |  10.7   1.0   0.3
                              Pr |   25.5 |   0.5   0.1   0.0
                              Future Round Matchups:
                              Code:
                               SF|    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Pr 
                              Cr |        27.5  41.9  19.4  10.6      
                              Ck |  69.4   7.7  11.7               0.5
                              Qu |         3.4   5.2               0.0
                              RP |                     0.9   0.0   0.0
                              Ha |                     1.5   0.0   0.0
                              Ya |                           0.0      
                              
                                F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Ha    Ya    Cg    Pr 
                              Cr |  47.5  28.4   3.3   6.1   0.8            
                              Ck |         0.2   2.1   4.2   1.5            
                              Qu |               1.4   2.8         0.5   0.0
                              RP |                           0.2   0.2   0.0
                              Ha |                           0.4   0.3   0.0
                              Ya |                                 0.1   0.0
                              Cg |                                       0.0
                              
                              0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
                              x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
                              Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                                Well, this sure isn't the post I thought I'd have to write. Obviously everything is still in motion, but it seems that the plan is for Harvard and Yale to withdraw, Cornell and Clarkson to get byes to the semis, and for the remaining teams to reseed. This is all truly wild and I'm getting through it by running fun hockey simulations. Anyway, every team's chances of advancing to "Lake Placid" have increased, which I guess is fun?

                                Summary:
                                Code:
                                      KRACH |    QF    SF     F
                                Cr |  570.4 |   BYE  89.5  65.7
                                Ck |  231.1 |   BYE  63.3  20.5
                                Qu |  155.8 |  95.2  35.7  10.2
                                RP |   83.2 |  61.7   8.1   2.5
                                Cg |   58.6 |  38.3   3.2   1.0
                                Pr |   25.5 |   4.8   0.2   0.1
                                Future Round Matchups:
                                Code:
                                 SF|    Qu    RP    Cg    Pr 
                                Cr |        59.2  36.0   4.8
                                Ck |  95.2   2.5   2.3      
                                
                                  F|    Ck    Qu    RP    Cg    Pr
                                Cr |  56.9  31.6   0.7   0.3      
                                Ck |               4.0   2.2   0.2
                                Qu |               3.4   0.7      
                                RP |                             x
                                Cg |                             x
                                
                                0.0 denotes outcomes that occurred fewer than 500 times in the simulation.
                                x denotes outcomes that are possible but did not occur.
                                Blanks denote impossible outcomes.
                                RPI Pep Band
                                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                                Comment

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