Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020
We've got some fun action going at the bye line, as Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, and Harvard continue to battle over just two spots. The team that loses out however will have an excellent chance to advance regardless because SLU is very bad (really all of the bottom three are very bad). There's a similar tussle between RPI and Yale between who will finish 7th and 8th, which is obviously a little less meaningful, but it could mean the difference between hosting an outright awful team or hosting a simply bad team.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1028.2 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoffs:
We've got some fun action going at the bye line, as Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, and Harvard continue to battle over just two spots. The team that loses out however will have an excellent chance to advance regardless because SLU is very bad (really all of the bottom three are very bad). There's a similar tussle between RPI and Yale between who will finish 7th and 8th, which is obviously a little less meaningful, but it could mean the difference between hosting an outright awful team or hosting a simply bad team.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1028.2 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Clarkson
- Dartmouth
- Quinnipiac
————— - Harvard
- Colgate
- Yale
- RPI
————— - Princeton
- Brown
- Union
- SLU
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cr | 767.8 | 90.9 7.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x | 1.11 | 37.33 Ck | 256.6 | 7.1 60.0 20.8 8.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 2.42 | 32.39 Da | 160.3 | 1.4 17.6 28.9 24.4 20.1 6.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 x x x | 3.68 | 29.59 Qu | 159.8 | 0.3 7.8 24.5 31.3 24.9 9.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 x x | 4.08 | 28.53 Ha | 155.6 | 0.2 6.1 20.8 26.7 31.1 13.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 x x x | 4.29 | 28.05 Cg | 75.2 | 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.5 17.6 49.1 14.2 5.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 x | 5.78 | 24.40 Ya | 61.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 13.3 48.8 29.3 5.1 0.6 0.1 x | 7.22 | 20.25 RP | 50.9 | x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 7.3 30.7 54.4 6.3 0.4 0.0 x | 7.59 | 19.48 Pr | 33.2 | x x x x 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.3 36.1 25.7 27.4 1.1 | 9.72 | 13.59 Br | 18.7 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 32.0 35.4 29.6 0.7 | 9.94 | 12.90 Un | 22.1 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 20.1 37.6 41.1 0.4 | 10.20 | 12.26 SL | 11.2 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 97.9 | 11.98 | 5.22 | KRACH | 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cr | 767.8 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.2 9.0 13.5 17.6 18.5 16.5 10.2 4.8 | 37.33 Ck | 256.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.6 9.9 13.0 17.2 15.9 15.3 9.2 6.2 1.8 0.8 | 32.39 Ha | 155.6 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.5 10.7 14.7 15.5 16.0 11.8 9.0 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.2 | 28.05 Da | 160.3 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.6 9.1 11.9 15.0 14.9 14.3 10.2 7.3 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 | 29.59 Qu | 159.8 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.7 8.8 13.1 15.1 17.0 13.8 11.4 5.8 3.3 0.8 0.3 | 28.53 Cg | 75.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 7.1 9.7 12.9 13.7 14.1 11.8 9.4 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 24.40 Ya | 61.9 | 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.5 7.0 11.5 13.3 15.7 13.8 12.2 8.4 5.6 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 20.25 RP | 50.9 | 2.6 4.3 12.4 13.7 19.7 15.6 14.4 8.3 5.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 19.48 Pr | 33.2 | 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.7 5.9 10.0 12.1 15.1 14.1 13.4 9.5 6.9 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 x | 13.59 Br | 18.7 | 1.7 3.6 9.5 12.9 17.5 16.7 14.9 10.4 6.7 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 12.90 Un | 22.1 | 7.4 11.2 19.8 18.8 17.7 11.7 7.3 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 12.26 SL | 11.2 | 7.3 11.8 19.7 19.5 17.4 11.7 7.0 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 5.22 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred. Blank outcomes are impossible
Code:
| Cr Ck Da Qu Ha Cg Ya RP Pr Br Un SL | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cr | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 100.0 Ck | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.3 | 96.2 Da | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 19.8 | 72.4 Qu | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.3 4.9 24.6 | 63.8 Ha | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.9 5.8 30.7 | 53.8 Cg | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 18.4 21.7 28.0 18.0 | 13.1 Ya | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 29.1 30.9 29.5 2.5 | 0.7 RP | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 31.4 32.7 26.6 1.0 | 0.1 Pr | x x 0.0 x 0.0 0.1 3.1 3.9 1.4 1.1 0.0 | NO Br | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 | NO Un | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 | NO SL | x x x x x x 0.0 x x x x | NO Hosts on the left, visitors across the top. KRACH | 1st QF SF F ------------------------------------- Cr | 767.8 | 100.0 99.0 83.9 66.3 Ck | 256.6 | 100.0 86.8 52.3 16.9 Da | 160.3 | 99.4 63.9 22.4 5.8 Qu | 159.8 | 99.1 59.7 19.5 5.3 Ha | 155.6 | 98.8 56.2 17.5 4.8 Cg | 75.2 | 88.9 19.2 2.9 0.6 Ya | 61.9 | 79.9 9.3 0.9 0.2 RP | 50.9 | 74.0 5.1 0.4 0.1 Pr | 33.2 | 28.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 Br | 18.7 | 13.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Un | 22.1 | 15.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 SL | 11.2 | 2.0 0.0 x x 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
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