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ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

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  • ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

    Now that we're a healthy 3.8% of the way in to the season, it's time to kick off this year's ECAC KRACH projections thread! As is always the case so early in the year, KRACH is not truly defined until there is a transitive chain between every team in the country, so right now there is a hypothetical tie against a perfectly average hypothetical team to hypothetically make every team's hypothetical KRACH hypothetically real and hypothetically finite. That will be fixed soon enough so whatever.

    I don't really feel like trying to dig into this projection other than there is a pretty big gap between 7th and 8th, but that's heavily driven by Brown and Yale having essentially fake KRACH values for now. Everything will get better when we get deeper into the season.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1060.6 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Princeton
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Quinnipiac
    6. Yale
    7. Brown
    8. Colgate
      —————
    9. SLU
    10. RPI
    11. Dartmouth
    12. Union

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  464.2 |  71.4  17.8   6.6   2.7   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.46 | 34.95
    Pr |  195.7 |   9.8  24.5  22.4  17.8  12.5   7.6   4.0   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.45 | 29.07
    Ck |  186.9 |   8.5  22.4  22.0  18.6  13.6   8.6   4.7   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.60 | 28.71
    Ha |  167.1 |   6.6  19.2  21.2  19.6  15.3  10.1   5.8   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.83 | 28.17
    Qu |  134.9 |   2.6   9.7  14.5  18.0  19.9  16.6  12.3   4.5   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0 |  4.76 | 26.05
    Ya |  100.0 |   0.6   3.1   6.4  10.9  16.7  23.0  23.2  10.4   4.0   1.3   0.4   0.1 |  5.91 | 23.51
    Br |  100.0 |   0.5   3.1   6.4  10.8  16.7  22.9  23.3  10.5   4.1   1.3   0.4   0.1 |  5.91 | 23.50
    Cg |   47.8 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.3   5.5  12.0  27.4  23.7  15.6   8.5   3.7 |  8.59 | 17.22
    SL |   41.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   3.6   8.6  22.0  25.8  19.8  12.1   6.1 |  9.03 | 16.12
    RP |   36.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.5   4.5  14.1  22.7  27.1  19.6   9.9 |  9.65 | 14.48
    Da |   24.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.1   4.9  11.0  19.7  29.5  33.4 | 10.71 | 11.64
    Un |   17.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.2   6.4  14.5  29.6  46.8 | 11.11 | 10.59
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  464.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.8   5.5   7.4   9.4  11.1  12.0  11.8  10.6   8.7   6.3   4.1   2.2   1.0   0.3   0.1 | 34.95
    Pr |  195.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   2.9   4.3   5.8   7.4   8.7   9.8  10.3  10.2   9.4   8.0   6.4   4.8   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 29.07
    Ck |  186.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.4   2.3   3.4   4.8   6.3   7.9   9.1  10.0  10.4   9.9   8.9   7.5   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.71
    Ha |  167.1 |                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.2   5.6   7.2   8.7   9.8  10.3  10.2   9.4   8.1   6.6   4.9   3.4   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.17
    Qu |  134.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.3   2.1   3.1   4.4   5.9   7.3   8.7   9.6  10.1   9.8   9.1   7.8   6.3   4.7   3.3   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.05
    Ya |  100.0 |                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.7   5.1   6.8   8.4   9.8  10.4  10.4   9.7   8.6   7.0   5.3   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x             | 23.51
    Br |  100.0 |                 x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.7   5.2   6.8   8.4   9.7  10.3  10.4   9.8   8.6   6.9   5.3   3.7   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x             | 23.50
    Cg |   47.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   2.9   4.3   5.9   7.4   8.8   9.8  10.1   9.9   9.0   7.8   6.3   4.8   3.4   2.3   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.22
    SL |   41.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.7   9.1  10.0  10.2   9.9   8.9   7.6   6.1   4.6   3.2   2.1   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.12
    RP |   36.6 |               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.6   5.5   7.3   9.1  10.4  11.0  10.7   9.8   8.2   6.6   4.9   3.4   2.2   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x             | 14.48
    Da |   24.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.1   7.1   9.0  10.5  11.1  11.0  10.1   8.6   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.64
    Un |   17.6 |               0.1   0.4   1.2   2.7   4.9   7.4   9.9  11.7  12.5  12.1  10.7   8.7   6.6   4.5   2.9   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x             | 10.59
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Blank outcomes are impossible
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Pr    Ck    Ha    Qu    Ya    Br    Cg    SL    RP    Da    Un |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.6 |  98.6
    Pr |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   2.0   2.8   4.1   7.3   8.7 |  74.5
    Ck |     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   2.3   3.2   4.7   8.1   9.7 |  71.4
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   2.7   3.8   5.5   9.5  11.1 |  66.6
    Qu |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.3   5.2   7.0   9.8  14.3  16.3 |  44.9
    Ya |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2         0.7   8.9  11.5  15.1  18.1  18.7 |  20.9
    Br |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7         8.9  11.6  15.1  18.2  18.5 |  20.8
    Cg |     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.5   1.5        15.1  13.2   8.6   6.5 |   1.4
    SL |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.5   1.4   1.5  11.9         9.6   5.9   4.4 |   0.7
    RP |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   1.0   1.0   6.6   6.1         2.9   2.3 |   0.2
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.3   1.9   1.7   1.4         0.5 |   0.0
    Un |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.8   0.7   0.6   0.3       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

  • #2
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

    Fake tie nonsense! The gulf between 4th/5th and 6th is vast! Also between 2nd and 3rd but those end up in the same place so whatever.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1049.1 possibilities; n=1,000,000:
    1. Cornell
    2. Harvard
    3. Clarkson
    4. Quinnipiac
      —————
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Colgate
    7. Brown
    8. RPI
      —————
    9. Princeton
    10. Yale
    11. SLU
    12. Union

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr | 1562.5 |  65.0  33.9   1.0   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.36 | 39.15
    Ha |  880.4 |  34.7  61.3   3.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.70 | 37.70
    Ck |  195.1 |   0.2   3.5  50.6  27.7  16.3   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.62 | 29.47
    Qu |  149.4 |   0.0   0.7  23.0  34.9  34.7   5.1   1.2   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.26 | 27.21
    Da |  128.7 |   0.0   0.6  21.4  34.9  36.8   5.0   1.0   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.29 | 27.11
    Cg |   46.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.1   5.2  29.6  25.4  17.0  10.8   6.3   3.2   1.3 |  7.33 | 18.15
    Br |   49.3 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   4.5  30.1  25.0  16.9  11.0   6.6   3.5   1.4 |  7.38 | 17.95
    RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.4  13.8  19.0  21.4  18.5  13.6   8.4   3.8 |  8.35 | 15.94
    Pr |   39.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   8.8  13.4  16.9  18.1  16.8  14.1  10.8 |  9.04 | 14.64
    Ya |   26.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.6   6.4  11.7  16.3  19.9  21.4  21.6 |  9.94 | 12.83
    SL |   25.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.6   5.8  10.2  15.1  19.9  23.2  22.9 | 10.05 | 12.58
    Un |   16.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8   2.5   5.4  10.0  16.8  26.2  38.2 | 10.71 | 11.29
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr | 1562.5 |                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.5   6.3  10.0  13.9  16.5  16.8  14.2   9.5   4.6   1.5 | 39.15
    Ha |  880.4 |                                                           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.8   5.1   8.2  11.8  14.8  16.1  14.8  11.5   7.2   3.7   1.2   0.4 | 37.70
    Ck |  195.1 |                                   x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.6   6.7   8.8  10.8  12.0  12.4  11.3   9.6   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0             | 29.47
    Qu |  149.4 |                             x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.4   5.2   7.2   9.4  11.0  12.1  11.9  10.9   8.8   6.6   4.3   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 27.21
    Da |  128.7 |                                         x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.4   5.4   7.5   9.8  11.4  12.4  12.1  10.9   8.6   6.2   3.9   2.3   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x                   | 27.11
    Cg |   46.7 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.8   7.7   9.7  11.0  11.7  11.2  10.0   8.2   6.2   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                         | 18.15
    Br |   49.3 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.1   8.1  10.2  11.5  12.0  11.2   9.9   7.8   5.8   3.8   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                 | 17.95
    RP |   39.4 |                           0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.9   6.0   8.6  10.5  12.1  12.3  11.7   9.9   7.8   5.5   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                           | 15.94
    Pr |   39.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.8   3.2   4.8   6.8   8.7  10.4  11.3  11.4  10.4   9.0   7.1   5.2   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                           | 14.64
    Ya |   26.8 |         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   2.4   4.3   6.4   8.8  10.6  12.1  12.1  11.4   9.5   7.5   5.3   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                             | 12.83
    SL |   25.4 |         0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   4.9   7.1   9.4  11.0  11.9  11.7  10.6   8.8   6.8   4.8   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                     | 12.58
    Un |   16.7 |                     0.3   0.9   2.6   4.9   8.1  10.9  13.1  13.6  12.9  10.9   8.3   5.8   3.6   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 11.29
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Blank outcomes are impossible
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ha    Ck    Qu    Da    Cg    Br    RP    Pr    Ya    SL    Un |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ha |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ck |     x     x           x     x   0.3   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.8   4.1   6.7 |  82.0
    Qu |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.7   0.7   2.1   4.6   8.7   9.5  15.0 |  58.6
    Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.6   0.8   1.9   5.2   9.6   9.9  15.2 |  56.9
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         4.6  10.5  13.4  16.2  16.3  16.2 |   1.2
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.9        10.4  13.3  15.5  16.4  16.0 |   0.9
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.1   5.4        11.1  12.0  11.9  10.0 |   0.2
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.4   4.5   8.0         8.5   8.0   6.6 |   0.1
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.3   2.3   5.1   4.5         3.8   2.8 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.1   2.7   3.7   3.9   3.5         2.8 |   0.0
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.3   1.3   1.8   1.9   1.3   1.2       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

      I would really appreciate it if Cornell and Harvard would lose (or even just tie) a game so I could dump the fake tie. While it still exists, it's a little silly to look to hard at the exact projections. Anyway, here we are at the first little "break" in the season as none of the ECAC teams will be playing league contests this holiday weekend.

      Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1044.8 possibilities; n=1,000,000:
      1. Cornell
      2. Harvard
      3. Clarkson
      4. Dartmouth
        —————
      5. Quinnipiac
      6. Colgate
      7. Brown
      8. RPI
        —————
      9. Yale
      10. Princeton
      11. Union
      12. SLU

      Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

      Rank and Points breakdown:
      Code:
         |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr | 2152.0 |  74.1  25.3   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.27 | 40.05
      Ha |  923.0 |  25.6  68.2   6.1   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.81 | 37.69
      Ck |  230.1 |   0.3   6.2  73.5  16.6   2.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.17 | 31.12
      Da |  127.5 |   0.0   0.3  16.5  55.3  18.7   6.6   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.23 | 26.74
      Qu |   95.7 |     x   0.0   2.5  16.5  37.0  23.5  12.7   5.1   1.9   0.6   0.1   0.0 |  5.54 | 22.80
      Cg |   64.3 |     x   0.0   0.5   7.9  22.9  30.1  21.6  10.3   4.5   1.7   0.4   0.1 |  6.25 | 20.97
      Br |   61.0 |     x   0.0   0.1   2.9  14.0  24.3  28.4  16.5   8.7   3.9   1.1   0.2 |  6.89 | 19.33
      RP |   41.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   1.8   5.9  12.7  21.7  24.7  20.9   9.3   2.7 |  8.74 | 15.40
      Ya |   37.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   4.3  11.0  22.7  24.5  21.3  11.1   3.6 |  8.91 | 15.08
      Pr |   41.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.5   4.6  10.1  18.3  22.9  22.4  13.6   6.4 |  9.10 | 14.73
      Un |   16.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.1   3.5   8.6  18.2  36.5  31.7 | 10.80 | 10.83
      SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.4   4.1  11.0  27.9  55.3 | 11.30 |  9.25
      
         |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr | 2152.0 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.2   6.2  10.4  15.1  18.4  18.4  14.6   8.3   3.1 | 40.05
      Ha |  923.0 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.6   4.9   8.2  12.1  15.2  16.7  15.2  11.5   6.7   3.4   1.0   0.3 | 37.69
      Ck |  230.1 |                                                     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.4   9.9  12.1  13.2  13.2  11.3   9.0   6.0   3.6   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0             | 31.12
      Da |  127.5 |                                   x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.1   6.2   8.2  10.5  11.9  12.5  11.7  10.1   7.7   5.4   3.2   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 26.74
      Qu |   95.7 |                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.1   6.2   8.2  10.2  11.5  12.1  11.5  10.0   7.8   5.6   3.5   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                           | 22.80
      Cg |   64.3 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   5.9   8.1  10.4  11.8  12.5  11.8  10.3   8.0   5.7   3.6   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                               | 20.97
      Br |   61.0 |                           0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.5  11.7  12.5  12.6  11.0   9.1   6.5   4.3   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                             | 19.33
      RP |   41.1 |                     0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   5.1   7.3   9.9  11.6  12.6  12.1  10.9   8.7   6.5   4.3   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                       | 15.40
      Ya |   37.4 |               0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.8   3.5   5.5   8.2  10.4  12.2  12.7  12.2  10.4   8.3   5.7   3.7   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 15.08
      Pr |   41.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.6   6.5   8.8  10.6  11.8  11.9  11.0   9.3   7.3   5.2   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                             | 14.73
      Un |   16.5 |               0.4   1.3   3.4   6.1   9.6  12.3  14.0  13.9  12.3   9.7   7.0   4.6   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 10.83
      SL |   17.9 |   0.3   0.9   2.7   5.0   8.2  11.0  13.2  13.8  12.8  10.8   8.2   5.7   3.5   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             |  9.25
      Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
      x means the outcome never occurred.
      Blank outcomes are impossible
      Playoff Matchups:
      Code:
         |    Cr    Ha    Ck    Da    Qu    Cg    Br    RP    Ya    Pr    Un    SL |   BYE
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
      Ha |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
      Ck |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   1.1   1.7 |  96.7
      Da |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   2.0   2.8   8.6  12.4 |  72.2
      Qu |     x     x     x   0.0         0.4   1.0   7.7   7.9   9.7  22.6  29.2 |  19.0
      Cg |     x     x     x   0.0   0.3         1.7  10.8  11.9  13.1  23.5  23.5 |   8.5
      Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.4   1.2        13.6  14.0  15.4  20.2  18.2 |   3.1
      RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.7   3.7        12.7  11.0   7.4   5.0 |   0.3
      Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.7   1.4   3.1  12.3        11.3   6.0   4.4 |   0.1
      Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.5   3.3   9.7  10.3         5.4   3.6 |   0.2
      Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   1.2   1.2         0.2 |   0.0
      SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.4   0.2       |   0.0
      Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

        Remind me - are you calculating your own KRACH based just on ECAC games? Or do the games during this break matter for your purposes, too?

        I think CHN and others keep the hypothetical tie for every team all season, even after it’s not a mathematical necessity. Whelan has tried to explain to me several times why this is a good idea, but all that seems to register in my engineer brain is that it damps out extremes which can exist because the given set of games in a season is really itself just a sample of the (theoretically infinite) population of games that could be played. I.e. choosing a small sample of games (which even a full season is small compared to infinity) tends to result in more extreme ratings than the true underlying ratings should be, because in a small set of games, a “good” team could get lucky and look “great.” Keeping the tie dampens that effect - perhaps too much in some cases, but apparently it’s a decent first-order approximation of the right amount of damping needed to cancel out the sampling error.

        Please don’t pass this on to Whelan - I have gotten plenty of Fs from him over the years; don’t need another!
        If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

          Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
          Remind me - are you calculating your own KRACH based just on ECAC games? Or do the games during this break matter for your purposes, too?

          I think CHN and others keep the hypothetical tie for every team all season, even after it’s not a mathematical necessity. Whelan has tried to explain to me several times why this is a good idea, but all that seems to register in my engineer brain is that it damps out extremes which can exist because the given set of games in a season is really itself just a sample of the (theoretically infinite) population of games that could be played. I.e. choosing a small sample of games (which even a full season is small compared to infinity) tends to result in more extreme ratings than the true underlying ratings should be, because in a small set of games, a “good” team could get lucky and look “great.” Keeping the tie dampens that effect - perhaps too much in some cases, but apparently it’s a decent first-order approximation of the right amount of damping needed to cancel out the sampling error.

          Please don’t pass this on to Whelan - I have gotten plenty of Fs from him over the years; don’t need another!
          I do calculate my own KRACH, but it's based on all NCAA games, so the games over the break will cause shifts in the projection. I guess there might not be any reason to dump the hypothetical tie, and it would keep the ratings more consistent over the course of the entire season. I haven't done really any work to see how the projection could be improved over the years, I just take what smarter mathematical minds have given me and write little python scripts for fun.
          RPI Pep Band
          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

            One undefeated Ivy down, one to go. No changes in the order of the teams after the holiday's games. There's a lot of **** teams in the league this year.

            Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1044.8 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
            1. Cornell
            2. Harvard
            3. Clarkson
            4. Dartmouth
              —————
            5. Quinnipiac
            6. Colgate
            7. Brown
            8. RPI
              —————
            9. Yale
            10. Princeton
            11. Union
            12. SLU

            Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. At this point in the season, a hypothetical tie is included in each team's record to make all ratings real and finite.

            Rank and Points breakdown:
            Code:
               |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cr | 1779.7 |  91.5   8.1   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 40.55
            Ha |  322.7 |   7.6  66.3  24.1   1.8   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.21 | 35.21
            Ck |  213.4 |   0.9  24.4  60.0  11.6   2.7   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.92 | 32.16
            Da |   97.1 |   0.0   1.0  10.2  46.8  27.4  11.8   2.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.48 | 26.35
            Qu |  103.3 |   0.0   0.3   4.4  27.6  38.8  21.3   5.6   1.5   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  5.02 | 24.58
            Cg |   61.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.8  11.2  24.3  39.7  15.4   5.6   2.0   0.7   0.2   0.0 |  5.87 | 22.02
            Br |   34.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   4.2  14.6  33.4  22.1  13.2   7.2   3.4   1.1 |  7.64 | 17.55
            RP |   32.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   6.4  18.7  23.5  21.4  15.5   9.0   3.9 |  8.59 | 15.53
            Ya |   27.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.0  12.0  21.5  22.5  19.0  13.7   7.7 |  9.12 | 14.44
            Pr |   26.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0   8.1  13.8  18.2  20.7  19.7  17.1 |  9.74 | 13.27
            Un |   15.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.9   6.8  12.4  19.7  27.6  29.9 | 10.50 | 11.58
            SL |   20.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.7   4.7   9.7  17.1  26.4  40.2 | 10.81 | 10.77
            
               |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
            ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cr | 1779.7 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   4.1   7.8  12.8  17.6  20.2  18.1  11.8   4.5 | 40.55
            Ha |  322.7 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.4   6.9   9.8  12.6  14.2  14.3  12.4   9.6   5.9   3.2   1.3   0.5   0.1   0.0 | 35.21
            Ck |  213.4 |                                                     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.9   7.3   9.7  11.8  13.1  12.9  11.6   9.0   6.3   3.7   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 32.16
            Da |   97.1 |                                   x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.2   4.9   7.0   9.2  11.0  12.0  12.1  10.9   9.1   6.7   4.7   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 26.35
            Qu |  103.3 |                       x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.7   4.4   6.4   8.6  10.8  12.0  12.5  11.5   9.8   7.3   5.1   3.0   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                           | 24.58
            Cg |   61.1 |                                 0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.7   8.0  10.0  11.7  12.2  11.8  10.3   8.2   5.8   3.8   2.2   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                               | 22.02
            Br |   34.8 |                           0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.5   7.0   9.2  11.5  12.4  12.7  11.2   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                             | 17.55
            RP |   32.5 |                     0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   2.7   4.8   6.9   9.6  11.3  12.5  12.2  11.1   9.0   6.8   4.6   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                       | 15.53
            Ya |   27.3 |               0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   2.7   4.9   7.1   9.9  11.6  12.9  12.4  11.2   8.9   6.6   4.3   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 14.44
            Pr |   26.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.3   7.7   9.8  11.5  12.0  11.7  10.3   8.4   6.2   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 13.27
            Un |   15.5 |               0.2   0.8   2.2   4.2   7.2  10.0  12.5  13.4  13.1  11.4   9.1   6.5   4.2   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 11.58
            SL |   20.1 |   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.2   6.5   9.4  11.4  12.9  12.7  11.6   9.5   7.1   4.8   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 10.77
            Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
            0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
            x means the outcome never occurred.
            Blank outcomes are impossible
            Playoff Matchups:
            Code:
               |    Cr    Ha    Ck    Da    Qu    Cg    Br    RP    Ya    Pr    Un    SL |   BYE
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x | 100.0
            Ha |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1 |  99.8
            Ck |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.2 |  96.9
            Da |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.9   2.5   4.4   7.7  11.7  14.6 |  57.9
            Qu |     x     x     x   0.0         0.1   1.6   4.9   7.1  12.2  18.7  22.7 |  32.2
            Cg |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         3.2   8.2  11.9  16.1  22.4  23.2 |  12.0
            Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6        13.0  15.0  16.1  15.4  14.0 |   0.8
            RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   6.6        13.7  11.1   9.6   8.1 |   0.2
            Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   5.1  10.8         8.5   6.2   5.7 |   0.1
            Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   4.3   6.2   6.5         3.7   2.8 |   0.0
            Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.0   2.5   2.4   2.2         0.9 |   0.0
            SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.1   1.6   1.5   1.2   1.0       |   0.0
            Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

              Cornell is dead! No more hypothetical tie! Despite all of the huge gulfs that currently exist (nine points between 6th and 7th!), there is actually some drama around the bye line. How exciting.

              Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1040.6 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
              1. Cornell
              2. Clarkson
              3. Harvard
              4. Dartmouth
                —————
              5. Colgate
              6. Quinnipiac
              7. Yale
              8. RPI
                —————
              9. Princeton
              10. Brown
              11. Union
              12. SLU

              Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

              Rank and Points breakdown:
              Code:
                 |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
              -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Cr | 1044.0 |  91.9   7.7   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 38.92	
              Ck |  220.8 |   7.3  65.9  18.3   5.9   2.0   0.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  2.31 | 34.02
              Ha |  116.2 |   0.6  18.2  43.4  22.1  11.2   4.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  3.38 | 30.47
              Da |   88.1 |   0.1   4.6  16.4  28.7  28.3  21.1   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.47 | 27.84
              Cg |   74.4 |   0.1   2.3  15.0  27.0  30.7  23.8   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.62 | 27.13
              Qu |   95.4 |   0.0   1.3   6.5  16.2  27.3  45.0   3.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  5.20 | 25.71
              Ya |   24.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5  51.4  23.6  12.0   5.9   2.5   0.6 |  7.74 | 16.90
              RP |   21.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9  20.2  29.6  22.8  14.9   8.3   3.1 |  8.68 | 14.93
              Pr |   18.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5  12.1  17.0  18.7  18.6  17.9  15.2 |  9.57 | 13.25
              Br |   13.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   6.4  15.3  21.2  23.1  21.7  12.1 |  9.74 | 12.89
              Un |   10.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.5   9.6  16.8  23.3  26.5  20.3 | 10.20 | 11.92
              SL |   12.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.5   4.3   8.4  14.1  23.0  48.7 | 10.99 | 10.02
              
                 |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Cr | 1044.0 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   2.8   6.0  10.7  16.4  20.7  20.5  14.7   6.4 | 38.92
              Ck |  220.8 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.7   3.0   4.9   7.5  10.2  12.5  13.9  13.6  12.0   8.8   5.8   3.0   1.3   0.3   0.1 | 34.02
              Ha |  116.2 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   4.0   6.4   9.3  11.9  13.8  13.8  12.7   9.8   7.0   3.9   2.1   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0             | 30.47
              Da |   88.1 |                                               x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.6   5.6   8.3  10.7  12.6  13.1  12.7  10.5   8.1   5.2   3.1   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                   | 27.84
              Cg |   74.4 |                                                           x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   5.0   7.4  10.3  12.3  13.8  13.2  11.7   8.7   6.0   3.3   1.7   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 27.13
              Qu |   95.4 |                       x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.0   8.5  10.7  12.4  12.8  12.2  10.3   7.8   5.1   3.0   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                               | 25.71
              Ya |   24.6 |                                       0.0   0.1   0.6   1.4   3.3   5.4   8.9  11.3  14.0  13.9  13.1  10.4   7.7   4.8   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                             | 16.90
              RP |   21.7 |                                 0.1   0.4   1.4   2.9   5.8   8.6  12.0  13.6  14.4  12.9  10.4   7.4   4.8   2.8   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                       | 14.93
              Pr |   18.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.3   7.8   9.9  11.7  12.3  11.9  10.4   8.5   6.2   4.1   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 13.25
              Br |   13.7 |                           0.3   0.9   3.0   5.3   9.3  12.0  14.8  14.5  13.4  10.3   7.3   4.4   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.89
              Un |   10.5 |                           0.8   2.2   5.5   9.0  13.0  14.9  15.3  13.3  10.3   7.1   4.3   2.4   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 11.92
              SL |   12.7 |   0.1   0.5   1.5   3.1   5.8   8.5  11.4  13.1  13.6  12.3  10.4   7.7   5.2   3.2   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             | 10.02
              Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
              0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
              x means the outcome never occurred.
              Blank outcomes are impossible
              Playoff Matchups:
              Code:
                 |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Cg    Qu    Ya    RP    Pr    Br    Un    SL |   BYE
              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
              Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.6   1.2 |  97.4
              Ha |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.5   2.4   3.4   6.4 |  84.3
              Da |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.8   2.6   8.3   8.3  11.5  18.6 |  49.8
              Cg |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.9   2.9   9.1   9.3  12.8  20.6 |  44.4
              Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.4   5.4  12.7  13.7  18.4  24.2 |  24.1
              Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0        15.4  16.2  18.5  17.9  10.8 |   0.0
              RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.1        11.9  14.7  11.8   6.3 |   0.0
              Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.2   9.0         7.0   5.6   2.8 |   0.0
              Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.5   7.1   5.0         3.9   2.4 |   0.0
              Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.2   4.2   3.0   2.8         0.9 |   0.0
              SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   1.6   1.2   1.1   1.0       |   0.0
              Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
              RPI Pep Band
              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                Midweek update, now I sim the playoffs too. These numbers do account for the games that occurred since Sunday.
                Code:
                     Rating |   1st    QF    SF     F
                Cr | 1101.8 | 100.0  99.8  91.7  78.8
                Ck |  231.6 | 100.0  91.3  59.8  13.3
                Ha |  129.5 |  99.6  70.1  23.6   3.8
                Da |  100.4 |  97.8  52.9  11.7   1.9
                Cg |   80.6 |  96.1  38.9   6.9   1.0
                Qu |   90.4 |  94.7  38.5   5.9   1.1
                Ya |   38.8 |  74.3   5.9   0.3   0.1
                Pr |   28.0 |  49.9   1.4   0.0   0.0
                RP |   24.0 |  45.8   0.9   0.0   0.0
                Br |   15.3 |  20.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
                Un |   11.6 |  12.2   0.1   0.0     x
                SL |   13.1 |   8.9   0.0   0.0   0.0
                RPI Pep Band
                GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                  No league games this week, but there were a fair few games played by ECAC teams, so our KRACH values have adjusted a bit. There are some pretty close fights at the breaks, with less than a point separating Colgate and Dartmouth for the final bye and RPI and Princeton for home ice. As I posted earlier, I have added a playoff simulation to this program. It unsurprisingly currently has Cornell as the overwhelming favorite for the Whitelaw, but another loss will bring them back down to the pack.

                  Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1040.6 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                  1. Cornell
                  2. Clarkson
                  3. Harvard
                  4. Colgate
                    —————
                  5. Dartmouth
                  6. Quinnipiac
                  7. Yale
                  8. RPI
                    —————
                  9. Princeton
                  10. Union
                  11. Brown
                  12. SLU

                  Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                  Rank and Points breakdown:
                  Code:
                     |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Cr | 1135.7 |  89.1  10.4   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.11 | 38.84
                  Ck |  290.2 |  10.2  71.4  14.5   2.9   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.13 | 34.66
                  Ha |  129.7 |   0.5  14.4  52.0  21.2   8.9   2.8   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.33 | 30.19
                  Cg |   82.0 |   0.0   1.6  17.0  33.3  28.5  17.3   2.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.50 | 26.72
                  Da |   75.8 |   0.0   1.6  10.9  26.4  32.1  25.1   3.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.80 | 26.21
                  Qu |   92.7 |   0.0   0.6   5.0  15.7  27.2  40.7   8.5   1.6   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  5.37 | 24.51
                  Ya |   41.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.1  10.0  50.9  21.0   9.6   4.3   1.5   0.3 |  7.45 | 18.18
                  RP |   26.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6  13.5  28.1  25.2  17.8  10.3   3.3 |  8.87 | 15.06
                  Pr |   28.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.7  13.3  21.3  20.4  18.1  15.5   9.3 |  9.23 | 14.43
                  Un |   16.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.1  12.6  19.9  24.9  24.2  13.9 |  9.93 | 12.83
                  Br |   16.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7  12.1  18.6  24.0  28.0  13.3 | 10.00 | 12.80
                  SL |   14.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.6   5.7  10.8  20.4  59.9 | 11.27 |  9.57
                  
                     |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Cr | 1135.7 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.3   3.1   6.4  11.2  16.6  20.5  20.0  14.1   6.1 | 38.84
                  Ck |  290.2 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.7   8.4  11.2  13.5  14.3  13.6  11.0   7.9   4.4   2.1   0.6   0.2 | 34.66
                  Ha |  129.7 |                                                                 x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.8   4.8   7.1  10.0  12.3  13.9  13.4  12.0   8.9   6.2   3.4   1.8   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0             | 30.19
                  Cg |   82.0 |                                                           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   6.0   8.5  11.2  12.8  13.5  12.3  10.5   7.5   5.0   2.7   1.4   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 26.72
                  Da |   75.8 |                                               x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.2   5.1   7.4   9.6  11.7  12.5  12.6  11.0   8.9   6.3   4.1   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 26.21
                  Qu |   92.7 |                       x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.6   2.8   4.5   6.6   8.8  11.0  12.1  12.4  11.4   9.7   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                               | 24.51
                  Ya |   41.1 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.5   2.7   5.2   7.6  10.8  12.4  13.9  12.8  11.3   8.3   5.9   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                             | 18.18
                  RP |   26.2 |                                 0.1   0.4   1.3   2.7   5.6   8.2  11.6  13.2  14.2  12.7  10.7   7.8   5.3   3.1   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                       | 15.06
                  Pr |   28.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   5.1   7.2   9.5  11.0  12.1  11.8  10.7   8.7   6.7   4.5   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                 | 14.43
                  Un |   16.7 |                           0.4   1.1   3.3   5.8   9.6  12.3  14.4  14.1  12.7   9.9   7.1   4.5   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 12.83
                  Br |   16.6 |                           0.4   1.1   3.3   5.7   9.8  12.2  14.7  14.3  13.0   9.9   7.1   4.3   2.4   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.80
                  SL |   14.4 |   0.2   0.7   2.2   4.2   7.2  10.0  12.5  13.4  13.3  11.4   9.0   6.4   4.3   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             |  9.57
                  Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                  0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                  x means the outcome never occurred.
                  Blank outcomes are impossible
                  Playoffs:
                  Code:
                     |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Cg    Da    Qu    Ya    RP    Pr    Un    Br    SL |   BYE
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.0 | 100.0
                  Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.5 |  99.1
                  Ha |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.3   1.9   2.0   5.8 |  88.1
                  Cg |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.5   3.0   5.8   8.6   9.3  20.9 |  51.9
                  Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.7   4.2   7.7  11.4  12.3  24.6 |  39.0
                  Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.0   7.3  10.6  16.3  17.2  25.7 |  21.4
                  Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1        17.2  16.5  20.4  19.3  10.3 |   0.4
                  RP |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.5        11.8  11.6  11.3   4.0 |   0.0
                  Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.4  12.2         8.5   8.3   2.9 |   0.0
                  Un |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.2   5.8   4.7         3.5   0.9 |   0.0
                  Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.0   5.2   4.2   3.3         1.3 |   0.0
                  SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.9   0.7   0.7   0.5       |    NO
                  Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                  
                        KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                  -------------------------------------
                  Cr | 1135.7 | 100.0  99.8  92.3  76.9
                  Ck |  290.2 | 100.0  94.8  68.4  17.0
                  Ha |  129.7 |  99.5  71.6  20.6   3.3
                  Cg |   82.0 |  95.8  44.8   6.9   1.0
                  Da |   75.8 |  94.0  38.5   5.4   0.7
                  Qu |   92.7 |  94.0  42.3   6.0   1.1
                  Ya |   41.1 |  72.7   5.8   0.3   0.0
                  RP |   26.2 |  46.8   1.0   0.0   0.0
                  Pr |   28.4 |  44.9   1.1   0.0   0.0
                  Un |   16.7 |  21.4   0.2   0.0   0.0
                  Br |   16.6 |  20.9   0.2   0.0   0.0
                  SL |   14.4 |  10.0   0.0   0.0     x
                  0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                  x means the outcome never occurred.
                  RPI Pep Band
                  GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                  🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                  2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                  2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                  2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                    It was also 1040.6 possibilities last time. I suspect that number is actually smaller now.
                    sigpic

                    Let's Go 'Tute!

                    Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                    2012 Poser Of The Year

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                      Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                      It was also 1040.6 possibilities last time. I suspect that number is actually smaller now.
                      As there were no ECAC games played, that doesn't actually change. The number of possibilities is equal to 3k, where k is the number of ECAC games remaining.
                      RPI Pep Band
                      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                        Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                        As there were no ECAC games played, that doesn't actually change. The number of possibilities is equal to 3k, where k is the number of ECAC games remaining.
                        Of course. Thanks for the explanation.
                        sigpic

                        Let's Go 'Tute!

                        Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                        2012 Poser Of The Year

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                          The only league games played since the last update saw Quinnipiac sweep Princeton in their home-and-home series, but obviously there were a number of non-ECAC contests that have shifted KRACH values around. Here's where we stand at the dawn of 2020:

                          Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1039.6 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                          1. Cornell
                          2. Clarkson
                          3. Harvard
                          4. Dartmouth
                            —————
                          5. Colgate
                          6. Quinnipiac
                          7. Yale
                          8. RPI
                            —————
                          9. Brown
                          10. Union
                          11. Princeton
                          12. SLU

                          Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                          Rank and Points breakdown:
                          Code:
                             |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                          -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Cr | 1257.4 |  90.8   8.5   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.10 | 38.72
                          Ck |  304.8 |   7.7  60.1  22.6   7.0   2.1   0.5   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  2.37 | 33.82
                          Ha |  200.0 |   1.3  24.2  46.6  18.2   7.2   2.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.13 | 31.14
                          Da |  133.9 |   0.2   4.9  16.7  34.8  25.9  16.3   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  4.35 | 28.01
                          Cg |   82.5 |   0.0   1.0   7.4  21.0  32.2  34.0   3.7   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  5.04 | 25.84
                          Qu |  119.3 |   0.0   1.2   6.0  18.6  31.0  37.6   5.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  5.15 | 25.76
                          Ya |   50.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5   7.7  61.8  17.8   6.9   2.9   1.0   0.2 |  7.34 | 18.33
                          RP |   30.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0  13.6  32.9  24.2  16.0   9.1   3.1 |  8.80 | 14.84
                          Br |   20.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.4  16.3  22.0  24.0  22.4  10.7 |  9.75 | 12.95
                          Un |   20.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.7  16.1  23.0  24.3  20.5  11.2 |  9.73 | 12.86
                          Pr |   26.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.8  12.4  16.7  20.2  24.4  21.3 | 10.11 | 12.13
                          SL |   17.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   3.4   7.1  12.6  22.6  53.5 | 11.13 |  9.61
                          
                             |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
                          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Cr | 1257.4 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.6   3.5   7.0  11.8  17.0  20.3  19.1  13.1   5.6 | 38.72
                          Ck |  304.8 |                                                                 x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.4   5.5   8.0  10.7  12.7  13.9  13.1  11.3   8.1   5.3   2.7   1.2   0.3   0.1 | 33.82
                          Ha |  200.0 |                                                                 x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.7   4.7   7.3  10.1  12.7  13.9  14.0  11.8   9.2   5.7   3.3   1.4   0.6   0.1   0.0             | 31.14
                          Da |  133.9 |                                               x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.3   5.3   7.8  10.2  12.3  13.1  12.9  10.9   8.6   5.7   3.5   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0                   | 28.01
                          Cg |   82.5 |                                                           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.0   3.7   5.7   8.4  10.7  12.8  13.1  12.7  10.4   8.0   5.1   3.1   1.5   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                   | 25.84
                          Qu |  119.3 |                                               x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.7   5.9   8.6  10.9  12.9  13.2  12.6  10.3   7.8   4.9   2.9   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0                               | 25.76
                          Ya |   50.7 |                                       0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.4   4.7   7.1  10.4  12.2  14.0  13.1  11.9   8.7   6.2   3.7   2.1   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                             | 18.33
                          RP |   30.3 |                                 0.1   0.4   1.5   3.1   6.1   8.9  12.3  13.6  14.2  12.5  10.2   7.1   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                       | 14.84
                          Br |   20.2 |                           0.3   0.9   2.9   5.1   9.1  11.8  14.5  14.4  13.4  10.4   7.5   4.7   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.95
                          Un |   20.7 |                           0.4   1.1   3.1   5.7   9.5  12.2  14.4  14.2  12.8  10.1   7.2   4.5   2.5   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                 | 12.86
                          Pr |   26.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.8   3.1   5.5   7.9  10.7  12.2  13.1  12.2  10.7   8.2   5.8   3.6   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.13
                          SL |   17.5 |   0.2   0.7   2.1   4.0   7.1   9.9  12.5  13.5  13.3  11.6   9.2   6.5   4.3   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                             |  9.61
                          Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                          x means the outcome never occurred.
                          Blank outcomes are impossible
                          Playoffs:
                          Code:
                             |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Da    Cg    Qu    Ya    RP    Br    Un    Pr    SL |   BYE
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
                          Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.5   1.3 |  97.4
                          Ha |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.5   1.4   1.3   2.1   4.3 |  90.3
                          Da |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.3   2.4   6.9   6.5   9.6  17.6 |  56.6
                          Cg |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   4.7  12.4  11.6  16.0  25.1 |  29.5
                          Qu |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.5   5.4  12.7  12.6  16.7  26.1 |  25.9
                          Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0        15.8  20.7  21.8  18.5  11.9 |   0.2
                          RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.1        14.8  14.6  10.1   5.0 |   0.0
                          Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   7.7         5.2   4.0   2.0 |   0.0
                          Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   5.2         4.4   1.3 |   0.0
                          Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.2   6.3   3.9   3.9         1.2 |   0.0
                          SL |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.3   0.8   1.0   0.6       |    NO
                          Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                          
                                KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                          -------------------------------------
                          Cr | 1257.4 | 100.0  99.8  90.3  75.7
                          Ck |  304.8 | 100.0  92.0  57.5  14.3
                          Ha |  200.0 |  99.8  78.1  29.7   6.0
                          Da |  133.9 |  97.8  55.6  11.9   2.2
                          Cg |   82.5 |  92.1  26.3   3.5   0.5
                          Qu |  119.3 |  95.2  40.5   6.7   1.3
                          Ya |   50.7 |  76.0   5.9   0.3   0.1
                          RP |   30.3 |  50.0   0.9   0.0   0.0
                          Br |   20.2 |  24.6   0.2   0.0   0.0
                          Un |   20.7 |  25.3   0.2   0.0   0.0
                          Pr |   26.6 |  28.6   0.3   0.0   0.0
                          SL |   17.5 |  10.8   0.0   0.0   0.0
                          0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                          x means the outcome never occurred.
                          RPI Pep Band
                          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                            RPI got a four-point weekend and that's all that really matters to me. Would you like to talk about how both of the 3-6 and 7-11 sections shifted significantly (with Clarkson also falling back toward the pack a bit)? Nah.

                            Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1035.8 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                            1. Cornell
                            2. Clarkson
                            3. Quinnipiac
                            4. Harvard
                              —————
                            5. Dartmouth
                            6. Colgate
                            7. RPI
                            8. Yale
                              —————
                            9. Union
                            10. Princeton
                            11. Brown
                            12. SLU

                            Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                            Rank and Points breakdown:
                            Code:
                               |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                            -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Cr | 1088.8 |  96.9   2.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.03 | 38.60
                            Ck |  224.9 |   2.4  52.5  21.3  13.2   7.7   2.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.80 | 31.42
                            Qu |  159.4 |   0.3  20.5  30.4  25.2  15.8   7.3   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.59 | 29.29
                            Ha |  147.4 |   0.2  14.6  25.0  26.0  21.0  12.4   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.93 | 28.60
                            Da |  122.2 |   0.1   6.6  13.9  20.9  29.9  25.6   2.6   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.63 | 27.29
                            Cg |   80.2 |   0.0   2.9   9.1  14.5  23.9  41.1   6.8   1.4   0.3   0.0   0.0     x |  5.19 | 25.59
                            RP |   44.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   6.9  44.0  31.5  11.5   3.8   0.8   0.0 |  7.59 | 18.68
                            Ya |   43.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.3  34.2  34.1  16.9   8.1   2.7   0.2 |  7.99 | 17.45
                            Un |   24.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   5.4  15.8  33.8  28.2  15.3   1.1 |  9.34 | 14.25
                            Pr |   30.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   4.3  10.8  20.3  28.2  28.5   7.7 |  9.88 | 13.18
                            Br |   18.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.5   5.8  16.5  28.5  40.6   7.1 | 10.22 | 12.36
                            SL |   13.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.1  12.2  83.9 | 11.79 |  7.28
                            
                               |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
                            ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Cr | 1088.8 |                                                                             x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   4.0   7.6  12.3  17.2  19.9  18.3  12.3   5.3 | 38.60
                            Ck |  224.9 |                                                                             x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.2   6.6   9.2  12.0  13.3  13.9  12.2  10.1   6.7   4.2   1.9   0.9   0.2   0.1             | 31.42
                            Qu |  159.4 |                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.0   3.9   6.5  10.0  12.8  15.3  14.7  13.3   9.3   6.2   2.8   1.3   0.3   0.1                               | 29.29
                            Ha |  147.4 |                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.4   5.9   8.8  12.1  13.9  15.1  13.0  10.9   6.8   4.2   1.7   0.7   0.1   0.0                               | 28.60
                            Da |  122.2 |                                                           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.5   6.9   9.9  12.0  13.8  13.5  12.3   9.1   6.5   3.6   1.9   0.7   0.3   0.0   0.0                               | 27.29
                            Cg |   80.2 |                                                         0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   4.3   6.4   9.0  11.1  12.9  12.8  12.0   9.6   7.3   4.7   2.8   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                   | 25.59
                            RP |   44.3 |                                                         0.1   0.4   1.6   3.1   6.5   9.2  13.1  14.0  14.8  12.3  10.0   6.6   4.2   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x                                                       | 18.68
                            Ya |   43.2 |                                       0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   4.1   7.2   9.7  12.8  13.4  13.7  11.5   9.3   6.3   4.1   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                             | 17.45
                            Un |   24.9 |                                       0.6   1.6   4.6   7.5  11.8  14.0  15.4  13.9  11.6   8.2   5.3   3.0   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                             | 14.25
                            Pr |   30.3 |         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.7   5.1   7.5  10.7  12.4  13.9  12.8  11.5   8.4   6.0   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0                                                                                           | 13.18
                            Br |   18.1 |                           0.6   1.5   4.3   7.0  11.4  13.6  15.3  14.0  12.0   8.6   5.7   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                         | 12.36
                            SL |   13.7 |   1.4   3.5   8.0  11.7  15.2  15.8  14.5  11.5   8.1   5.0   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x                                                                                     |  7.28
                            Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                            0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                            x means the outcome never occurred.
                            Blank outcomes are impossible
                            Playoffs:
                            Code:
                               |    Cr    Ck    Qu    Ha    Da    Cg    RP    Ya    Un    Pr    Br    SL |   BYE
                            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
                            Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.2   1.7   6.9 |  89.4
                            Qu |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   1.6   3.6   3.9  14.2 |  76.4
                            Ha |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.2   5.5   6.7  19.2 |  65.8
                            Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.2   1.0   5.0  10.5  13.3  28.5 |  41.5
                            Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0         0.6   2.0   9.2  15.5  21.0  24.9 |  26.5
                            RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         8.8  26.9  22.1  22.1   3.6 |   0.2
                            Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   5.2        26.9  19.6  18.1   2.1 |   0.1
                            Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   4.6   7.3         5.5   3.7   0.3 |   0.0
                            Pr |     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.4   5.6   4.2         2.0   0.1 |    NO
                            Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.8   2.4   1.7   1.3         0.0 |   0.0
                            SL |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
                            Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                            
                                  KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                            -------------------------------------
                            Cr | 1088.8 | 100.0  99.7  89.2  76.6
                            Ck |  224.9 |  99.8  84.6  47.6  11.1
                            Qu |  159.4 |  99.3  68.3  25.7   5.1
                            Ha |  147.4 |  98.8  62.4  20.7   4.1
                            Da |  122.2 |  96.9  47.2  11.8   2.3
                            Cg |   80.2 |  91.7  26.5   4.5   0.7
                            RP |   44.3 |  68.3   5.5   0.3   0.0
                            Ya |   43.2 |  65.6   4.5   0.2   0.0
                            Un |   24.9 |  29.4   0.5   0.0   0.0
                            Pr |   30.3 |  31.1   0.6   0.0   0.0
                            Br |   18.1 |  15.2   0.1   0.0     0
                            SL |   13.7 |   4.0   0.0   0.0     x
                            0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                            x means the outcome never occurred.
                            RPI Pep Band
                            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2019-2020

                              Yeah, I know Brown has a game today, but unless they win (a fairly unlikely proposition), it's not going to affect these very much. Cornell still has a pretty hefty lead for first, but they are falling back toward the pack. Similarly, while we still have three teams fighting for the last two byes, their separation from the lower tier in the conference is shrinking (or maybe we just have a couple intermediate tiers now). All that seems guaranteed right now is a bottom two finish for SLU.

                              Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1032.0 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
                              1. Cornell
                              2. Clarkson
                              3. Harvard
                              4. Quinnipiac
                                —————
                              5. Dartmouth
                              6. Colgate
                              7. RPI
                              8. Yale
                                —————
                              9. Union
                              10. Princeton
                              11. Brown
                              12. SLU

                              Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

                              Rank and Points breakdown:
                              Code:
                                 |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                              -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Cr |  808.7 |  88.0  11.2   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.13 | 37.48
                              Ck |  275.1 |  11.1  67.2  13.9   5.4   2.1   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.21 | 33.29
                              Ha |  156.7 |   0.5  10.5  31.5  27.4  20.1   9.0   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.88 | 28.63
                              Qu |  150.4 |   0.2   6.0  32.6  32.8  19.7   7.7   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.93 | 28.48
                              Da |  127.2 |   0.2   4.6  15.5  22.4  32.9  19.7   4.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.62 | 27.21
                              Cg |   74.1 |   0.0   0.6   5.7  11.0  21.3  43.9  14.1   3.0   0.4   0.1   0.0     x |  5.59 | 24.47
                              RP |   52.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.2  14.5  48.8  25.4   5.9   1.3   0.2     x |  7.18 | 20.19
                              Ya |   47.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   4.4  24.6  40.7  18.3   8.6   2.4   0.0 |  8.06 | 17.72
                              Un |   27.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.2  15.9  39.2  28.7  12.5   0.2 |  9.31 | 14.74
                              Pr |   32.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.7  10.6  22.7  33.4  28.4   2.0 |  9.80 | 13.64
                              Br |   17.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   3.6  13.4  27.3  51.0   4.0 | 10.37 | 12.10
                              SL |   12.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   5.6  93.7 | 11.93 |  6.06
                              
                                 |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Cr |  808.7 |                                                                                               x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.3   4.6   8.3  12.9  17.4  19.1  17.4  11.1   5.4 | 37.48
                              Ck |  275.1 |                                                                                                     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.1   3.9   6.7   9.7  13.2  14.5  15.4  12.6  10.1   5.7   3.2   0.9   0.3       | 33.29
                              Ha |  156.7 |                                                                       x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.3   5.9   8.7  12.1  13.9  15.1  13.1  10.9   6.9   4.3   1.8   0.8   0.2   0.0                         | 28.63
                              Qu |  150.4 |                                                                                   x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.0   5.7   9.0  13.3  15.3  17.1  13.7  11.1   5.5   3.0   0.7   0.2                                     | 28.48
                              Da |  127.2 |                                                           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.7   7.2  10.1  12.3  14.0  13.3  12.1   8.8   6.2   3.4   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0                         | 27.21
                              Cg |   74.1 |                                                                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.3   4.0   6.9   9.4  12.6  13.6  14.1  11.9   9.7   6.4   4.1   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                         | 24.47
                              RP |   52.1 |                                                                     0.2   0.5   2.1   3.7   8.1  10.6  15.2  14.7  15.3  11.3   8.8   4.9   2.8   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0                                                             | 20.19
                              Ya |   47.6 |                                       0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.0   3.6   6.4   9.0  12.1  13.1  13.9  12.1  10.0   7.0   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                       | 17.72
                              Un |   27.2 |                                             0.9   2.0   6.1   9.0  14.1  15.2  16.1  13.0  10.2   6.3   3.8   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x                                                                         | 14.74
                              Pr |   32.2 |                     0.0   0.1   0.7   1.5   3.6   5.8   9.8  11.9  15.0  14.0  13.4   9.8   7.1   3.9   2.1   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x                                                                                                 | 13.64
                              Br |   17.0 |                           0.7   1.8   5.0   8.1  12.4  14.4  15.5  13.6  11.1   7.7   4.8   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x                                                                   | 12.10
                              SL |   12.2 |   3.7   7.4  14.2  17.1  18.2  15.0  11.0   6.8   3.7   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x                                                                                                       |  6.06
                              Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                              0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                              x means the outcome never occurred.
                              Blank outcomes are impossible
                              Playoffs:
                              Code:
                                 |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Qu    Da    Cg    RP    Ya    Un    Pr    Br    SL |   BYE
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
                              Ck |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   2.0 |  97.6
                              Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.5   5.7  19.3 |  69.8
                              Qu |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   3.1   4.7  19.0 |  71.6
                              Da |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.9   3.6   7.9  12.6  32.1 |  42.8
                              Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.2   2.7  11.4  17.8  27.9  22.2 |  17.3
                              RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1         8.2  27.6  26.8  25.0   4.2 |   0.8
                              Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.2        30.3  21.1  15.6   1.1 |   0.2
                              Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   2.2   8.7         5.6   2.6   0.1 |   0.0
                              Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.8   6.3   3.8         1.4   0.0 |    NO
                              Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.8   1.0   0.7         0.0 |   0.0
                              SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
                              Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
                              
                                    KRACH |   1st    QF    SF     F
                              -------------------------------------
                              Cr |  808.7 | 100.0  99.3  85.7  67.7
                              Ck |  275.1 | 100.0  90.9  58.6  18.7
                              Ha |  156.7 |  99.2  65.2  20.7   5.3
                              Qu |  150.4 |  99.2  62.9  18.9   4.7
                              Da |  127.2 |  97.5  48.4  12.0   2.8
                              Cg |   74.1 |  89.2  21.5   3.1   0.6
                              RP |   52.1 |  73.1   7.0   0.6   0.1
                              Ya |   47.6 |  66.6   3.8   0.3   0.1
                              Un |   27.2 |  29.0   0.4   0.0   0.0
                              Pr |   32.2 |  31.2   0.6   0.0   0.0
                              Br |   17.0 |  12.0   0.1   0.0     x
                              SL |   12.2 |   3.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
                              0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                              x means the outcome never occurred.
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

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