Now that we're a healthy 3.8% of the way in to the season, it's time to kick off this year's ECAC KRACH projections thread! As is always the case so early in the year, KRACH is not truly defined until there is a transitive chain between every team in the country, so right now there is a hypothetical tie against a perfectly average hypothetical team to hypothetically make every team's hypothetical KRACH hypothetically real and hypothetically finite. That will be fixed soon enough so whatever.
I don't really feel like trying to dig into this projection other than there is a pretty big gap between 7th and 8th, but that's heavily driven by Brown and Yale having essentially fake KRACH values for now. Everything will get better when we get deeper into the season.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1060.6 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Playoff Matchups:
I don't really feel like trying to dig into this projection other than there is a pretty big gap between 7th and 8th, but that's heavily driven by Brown and Yale having essentially fake KRACH values for now. Everything will get better when we get deeper into the season.
Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1060.6 possibilities; n=1,000,000):
- Cornell
- Princeton
- Clarkson
- Harvard
————— - Quinnipiac
- Yale
- Brown
- Colgate
————— - SLU
- RPI
- Dartmouth
- Union
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cr | 464.2 | 71.4 17.8 6.6 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.46 | 34.95 Pr | 195.7 | 9.8 24.5 22.4 17.8 12.5 7.6 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 3.45 | 29.07 Ck | 186.9 | 8.5 22.4 22.0 18.6 13.6 8.6 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 3.60 | 28.71 Ha | 167.1 | 6.6 19.2 21.2 19.6 15.3 10.1 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 3.83 | 28.17 Qu | 134.9 | 2.6 9.7 14.5 18.0 19.9 16.6 12.3 4.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 4.76 | 26.05 Ya | 100.0 | 0.6 3.1 6.4 10.9 16.7 23.0 23.2 10.4 4.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 | 5.91 | 23.51 Br | 100.0 | 0.5 3.1 6.4 10.8 16.7 22.9 23.3 10.5 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 | 5.91 | 23.50 Cg | 47.8 | 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 5.5 12.0 27.4 23.7 15.6 8.5 3.7 | 8.59 | 17.22 SL | 41.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.6 8.6 22.0 25.8 19.8 12.1 6.1 | 9.03 | 16.12 RP | 36.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.5 14.1 22.7 27.1 19.6 9.9 | 9.65 | 14.48 Da | 24.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.9 11.0 19.7 29.5 33.4 | 10.71 | 11.64 Un | 17.6 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 6.4 14.5 29.6 46.8 | 11.11 | 10.59 | KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cr | 464.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.5 7.4 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.8 10.6 8.7 6.3 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 | 34.95 Pr | 195.7 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.4 8.7 9.8 10.3 10.2 9.4 8.0 6.4 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 29.07 Ck | 186.9 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.8 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.0 10.4 9.9 8.9 7.5 5.8 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 28.71 Ha | 167.1 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.2 5.6 7.2 8.7 9.8 10.3 10.2 9.4 8.1 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 28.17 Qu | 134.9 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.7 9.6 10.1 9.8 9.1 7.8 6.3 4.7 3.3 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 26.05 Ya | 100.0 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.1 6.8 8.4 9.8 10.4 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.0 5.3 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 23.51 Br | 100.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.2 6.8 8.4 9.7 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.6 6.9 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 23.50 Cg | 47.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.4 8.8 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.0 7.8 6.3 4.8 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x x | 17.22 SL | 41.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.4 6.1 7.7 9.1 10.0 10.2 9.9 8.9 7.6 6.1 4.6 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x | 16.12 RP | 36.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.5 7.3 9.1 10.4 11.0 10.7 9.8 8.2 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x | 14.48 Da | 24.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.1 7.1 9.0 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.1 8.6 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 11.64 Un | 17.6 | 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.4 9.9 11.7 12.5 12.1 10.7 8.7 6.6 4.5 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 10.59 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred. Blank outcomes are impossible
Code:
| Cr Pr Ck Ha Qu Ya Br Cg SL RP Da Un | BYE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cr | x 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 | 98.6 Pr | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.8 4.1 7.3 8.7 | 74.5 Ck | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 3.2 4.7 8.1 9.7 | 71.4 Ha | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 3.8 5.5 9.5 11.1 | 66.6 Qu | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 5.2 7.0 9.8 14.3 16.3 | 44.9 Ya | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 8.9 11.5 15.1 18.1 18.7 | 20.9 Br | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 8.9 11.6 15.1 18.2 18.5 | 20.8 Cg | x 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 15.1 13.2 8.6 6.5 | 1.4 SL | 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 11.9 9.6 5.9 4.4 | 0.7 RP | 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.0 6.6 6.1 2.9 2.3 | 0.2 Da | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.5 | 0.0 Un | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 | 0.0 Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
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