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2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

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  • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    So, how does his ego become so huge that he thinks he's the guy for the job? I don't get it.
    He's looking at the same thing I am, which is that nobody has staked a claim to the delegate rich southern states and their non-white population with O'Rourke out of the race and Harris & Booker going nowhere fast. I'm sure also the 5 political consultants who haven't yet been picked up by a campaign are desperate for an easy mark, and they're in his ear telling him he's got a chance.

    Problem is he has no stake to those people either as he's 1) not from the south, 2) doesn't exactly come off as a down to earth kinda guy (more like a black version of Mitt Romney who also worked at Bain and whom Patrick succeeded as Mass gov), and 3) if the color of your skin determined support Kamala Harris' campaign wouldn't be on life support right now.
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    • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

      Here is Monmouth's SC poll from October 23. Monmouth is ranked A+ by 538:

      .33 Biden
      .16 Warren
      .12 Sanders
      .06 Harris
      (the rest is noise)

      I think Rover is exactly right: Patrick is a guided missile pointed right at SC. States with highest black % of population (so figure these numbers double for Democratic voters):

      .37 MS
      .32 LA
      .31 GA
      .30 MD
      .28 SC
      .26 AL
      .22 NC
      .21 DE
      .20 VA
      .17 TN
      .16 FL

      None of those states have a favorite son among current candidates! That's a huge delegate haul if Patrick can catch fire.

      It also exposes a market inefficiency to be exploited: a popular southern black Democratic Governor, Senator, or even Rep would be an extremely fierce challenger in Democratic presidential campaigns. Andrew Gillum (40), Stacey Abrams (45), and Ben Jealous (46) have a future.
      Last edited by Kepler; 11-14-2019, 01:18 PM.
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      • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

        Originally posted by Kepler View Post
        Here is Monmouth's SC poll from October 23. Monmouth is ranked A+ by 538:

        .33 Biden
        .16 Warren
        .12 Sanders
        .06 Harris
        (the rest is noise)

        I think Rover is exactly right: Patrick is a guided missile pointed right at SC. States with highest black % of population (so figure these numbers double for Democratic voters):

        .37 MS
        .32 LA
        .31 GA
        .30 MD
        .28 SC
        .26 AL
        .22 NC
        .21 DE
        .20 VA
        .17 TN
        .16 FL

        None of those states have a favorite son among current candidates! That's a huge delegate haul if Patrick can catch fire.

        It also exposes a market inefficiency to be exploited: a popular southern black Democratic Governor, Senator, or even Rep would be an extremely fierce challenger in Democratic presidential campaigns. Andrew Gillum (40), Stacey Abrams (45), and Ben Jealous (46) have a future.
        But that still doesn't explain why he thinks he can win those voters.

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        • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

          Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
          But that still doesn't explain why he thinks he can win those voters.
          .
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          • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

            Interestingly, 538 chimes in and disagrees with Rover and me vehemently. They think Patrick is going for "Buttigieg but not too young." They point out that black voters weren't any more impactful for him in MA than they are for any white Democrat. They believe Patrick will try to go for the optimistic, socially liberal, fiscally centrist lane which means a head-on collision with Mayor Pete (with Amy and Cory, too, but they are irrelevant at this point).

            I have never heard Patrick say anything about international relations, the military, terrorism, national security, so he's certainly operating in a different part of the idea forest than Pete. Anyway, I can see their logic even if I'm not convinced.
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            • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
              I have never heard Patrick say anything about international relations, the military, terrorism, national security, so he's certainly operating in a different part of the idea forest than Pete. Anyway, I can see their logic even if I'm not convinced.
              Without hearing him say anything on those topics I know he'd be better than the moron in there now...

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              • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                Without hearing him say anything on those topics I know he'd be better than the moron in there now...
                Obviously, because a door stop is better.

                The question is whether he is better than other Democratic candidates.
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                • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                  Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                  Interestingly, 538 chimes in and disagrees with Rover and me vehemently. They think Patrick is going for "Buttigieg but not too young." They point out that black voters weren't any more impactful for him in MA than they are for any white Democrat. They believe Patrick will try to go for the optimistic, socially liberal, fiscally centrist lane which means a head-on collision with Mayor Pete (with Amy and Cory, too, but they are irrelevant at this point).

                  I have never heard Patrick say anything about international relations, the military, terrorism, national security, so he's certainly operating in a different part of the idea forest than Pete. Anyway, I can see their logic even if I'm not convinced.
                  Tinfoil hat time. Is there any chance that he's getting into the race because he needs name recognition as someone has offered him to be a running-mate but wants more exposure? There's zero chance of that, right?
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                  Originally posted by SanTropez
                  May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                  Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                  I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                  Originally posted by Kepler
                  When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                  He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

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                  • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                    Tinfoil hat time. Is there any chance that he's getting into the race because he needs name recognition as someone has offered him to be a running-mate but wants more exposure? There's zero chance of that, right?
                    Who would want him as a running mate? He can't be Elizabeth Warren's (same state) and it wouldn't be Sanders. Why would Biden want him?

                    He doesn't bring anything to the ticket. Maybe a cabinet secretary, but if he wants that, better to stay out of it and endorse someone at the right time.

                    In his case, the only reason to run (other than easy money) is that he actually thinks he can win.

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                    • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                      Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                      Who would want him as a running mate? He can't be Elizabeth Warren's (same state) and it wouldn't be Sanders. Why would Biden want him?

                      He doesn't bring anything to the ticket. Maybe a cabinet secretary, but if he wants that, better to stay out of it and endorse someone at the right time.

                      In his case, the only reason to run (other than easy money) is that he actually thinks he can win.
                      He wouldn't be doing this prospecting would he? Get his name out there and see if anyone wants him as a VP or cabinet secretary. That almost seems more plausible. I don't get it though, working at Bain and probably making bank? THat seems way better than getting torched by the media and voters and having to work 100x hard than he would at Bain.
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                      As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                      College Hockey 6       College Football 0
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                      Originally posted by SanTropez
                      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                      Originally posted by Kepler
                      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                        Tinfoil hat time. Is there any chance that he's getting into the race because he needs name recognition as someone has offered him to be a running-mate but wants more exposure? There's zero chance of that, right?
                        I've never heard of anybody saying to x, "hey, I like you but nobody knows you, so get in the race (against me) and then lose and drop out and then I'll pick you."

                        I'm not saying it's impossible, but that sounds like a three cushion behind the back shot with a blindfold.

                        What is very likely is a regional guy gets in to become a national name for either Veep this time for the whole enchilada down the road. I am firmly convinced that's the only reason Inslee and Amy and Gillibrand and 3 or 4 others were ever in it.
                        Last edited by Kepler; 11-14-2019, 05:43 PM.
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                        • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                          Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                          He wouldn't be doing this prospecting would he? Get his name out there and see if anyone wants him as a VP or cabinet secretary. That almost seems more plausible. I don't get it though, working at Bain and probably making bank? THat seems way better than getting torched by the media and voters and having to work 100x hard than he would at Bain.
                          Anything is possible but the only front-runner who would want him is Biden. If Biden were the nominee a black VP candidate would be attractive, but MA is a given. Better to choose Andrew Gillum in hopes that he can help bring Florida's 29 electoral votes into the blue column. That's what Warren might be doing.

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                          • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                            What's his angle here? Because jumping in at a time like this just seems insane.
                            Code:
                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                              What's his angle here? Because jumping in at a time like this just seems insane.
                              No idea. One thing is for sure. His ego is massive.
                              **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                              Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                              Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

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                              • Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

                                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                                He wouldn't be doing this prospecting would he? Get his name out there and see if anyone wants him as a VP or cabinet secretary. That almost seems more plausible. I don't get it though, working at Bain and probably making bank? THat seems way better than getting torched by the media and voters and having to work 100x hard than he would at Bain.
                                Once you have enough money you want the interns to blow you for your sparkling personality, not your checkbook.
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