Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

[JSicedog]

Absolutely. NY has been pro-active on this one, instead of ignoring Epidemiology 101.

(And please excuse my excessive posting. I have a sudden low-grade fever of 100.2, but I might wake up dead tomorrow, so I gotta spout-off while I still draw breath!)

Best of luck to you all, and look after the senior members of your family. We don't want to lose those peeps before we have to.

Hope your better today Fish.

What shall we debate today?

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Thanks 'dog and Russ.

Fever holding steady, but this doesn't even crack the Top 5 flu-like maladies I've contracted over the years. No respiratory symptoms aside from a dry cough. I won't get tested -that's extraneous at this point- but it's harder than Chinese math to avoid the possibility of spreading it while we look after our 77-88 YO parents. That's what really worries me.

Me, I'm still a young buck, by Jesus!

[NUProf]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Thanks 'dog and Russ.

Fever holding steady, but this doesn't even crack the Top 5 flu-like maladies I've contracted over the years. No respiratory symptoms aside from a dry cough. I won't get tested -that's extraneous at this point- but it's harder than Chinese math to avoid the possibility of spreading it while we look after our 77-88 YO parents. That's what really worries me.

Me, I'm still a young buck, by Jesus!

By not testing and recovering, you are inadvertently adding to the panic. If cases are not reported, the mortality rate is inflated.

A few thing to recognize about epidemiological statistics. The death rate that you see published is probably higher than the actual mortality rate for the disease (although this is usually true, but even more likely with this disease). The rate is based on the number of death ascribed to the disease divided by the number of confirmed cases. Right now in Colorado that is 1% - there are 102 (as I last read, but it may have increased by now) confirmed cases and one death. The number of actual cases is almost certainly higher, but many will never be confirmed because of lack of testing and the fact that there are (according to results) a number of people who will be asymptomatic and never be detected. The same thing happens with the flu every year, also. I'm sure everybody at one time or another has just toughed it out with the flu. Those cases don't count towards the denominator in the calculation of the mortality rate. In the case of COVID, we are not in a position to know how many cases there are, because our testing isn't up to speed. Even if it were, lots of people will get the disease, recover, and no one will know about it - (just like the flu I got last winter, even though I had the flu shot), because they won't be tested and counted. The only accurate way to find the mortality rate (and for that matter the infection rate) is to take a random sample of the population. Once the pandemic has cooled, test the living individuals in the sample to see if they have the antibodies for the disease and determine how many people in the sample died of the disease. This is the only way to get to know the infection rate and the mortality rate. Doing it requires selecting the sample beforehand, letting the disease run its course, and then testing. Anything else will understate the infection rate and overstate the death rate. Sorry for the lesson in biostatistics there

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

By not testing and recovering, you are inadvertently adding to the panic. If cases are not reported, the mortality rate is inflated.

A few thing to recognize about epidemiological statistics. The death rate that you see published is probably higher than the actual mortality rate for the disease (although this is usually true, but even more likely with this disease). The rate is based on the number of death ascribed to the disease divided by the number of confirmed cases. Right now in Colorado that is 1% - there are 102 (as I last read, but it may have increased by now) confirmed cases and one death. The number of actual cases is almost certainly higher, but many will never be confirmed because of lack of testing and the fact that there are (according to results) a number of people who will be asymptomatic and never be detected. The same thing happens with the flu every year, also. I'm sure everybody at one time or another has just toughed it out with the flu. Those cases don't count towards the denominator in the calculation of the mortality rate. In the case of COVID, we are not in a position to know how many cases there are, because our testing isn't up to speed. Even if it were, lots of people will get the disease, recover, and no one will know about it - (just like the flu I got last winter, even though I had the flu shot), because they won't be tested and counted. The only accurate way to find the mortality rate (and for that matter the infection rate) is to take a random sample of the population. Once the pandemic has cooled, test the living individuals in the sample to see if they have the antibodies for the disease and determine how many people in the sample died of the disease. This is the only way to get to know the infection rate and the mortality rate. Doing it requires selecting the sample beforehand, letting the disease run its course, and then testing. Anything else will understate the infection rate and overstate the death rate. Sorry for the lesson in biostatistics there

Well thank you so much! I've worked in ICU's for 35 years, and had no idea!!!

A couple of things:

1.Of course the U.S. cases are under-reported. (See below.) If you want better stats, look into the ROK numbers, which involve a much much much larger sample-size. (BTW, when did you abandon the AQ defense in that regard?)

2.We called our hospital today with a detailed history of our maladies. We were told that we -even as caregivers- didn't qualify for testing since we weren't in any significant respiratory distress. This is the protocol in NY. That makes a certain amount of sense re: the civilians, especially in light of the fact that testing resources are limited, and that samples are being mis-handled by major health-care networks Upstate, rendering results unreliable.

But, if the 1st line of defense isn't a priority in this calculus, what is?

You have (justifiably) corrected me about the trivial details of D-3 hockey many times, but you have no idea of what you're talking about in this instance. No one really does, right now. The incubation-time is not well-understood, nor is the duration of virus-shedding pre/post-symptomatically, nor is the seroconversion data.

But -and this is important- getting tested for the sake of statistics isn't a valid use of limited resources. Unless you're in health-care, stay home and ride it out. If you get sick enough, you'll get your test.

[NUProf]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Well thank you so much! I've worked in ICU's for 35 years, and had no idea!!!

You have (justifiably) corrected me about the trivial details of D-3 hockey many times, but you have no idea of what you're talking about in this instance. No one really does, right now. The incubation-time is not well-understood, nor is the duration of virus-shedding pre/post-symptomatically, nor is the seroconversion data.

I agree that there are many things about this disease that we don't know. The best way to do this is through controlled sampling of the population, which we can't do right now because of the lack of ability to test (which in my mind is criminal). To understand the things that we don't know, we should have so much more data than we actually do. I have taught and studied biostatistics. One of my points is that usually the way that the media reports the information leads to confusion that can cause some people to be overly concerned and others to not have enough concern, and then when the politicians get involved, nobody knows what is true.

[bakdraft21]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Right now we do not need this type of post. This is not a political forum. (Nuprof, take note) It would be in the best interest of all to remove the post.

Agree I think we should come to this forum to get away from all the virus stuff maybe if just for a moment..

[UCBadger]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Agree I think we should come to this forum to get away from all the virus stuff maybe if just for a moment..

Does that mean I should not mention that Utica College is now officially teaching all classes in an online format for the rest of the semester?

[board]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Hey all, there are threads set up in both the D-1 and Cafe forums to discuss Covid-19 and politics. Please refrain from lengthy discussions in individual team threads.

[ticapnews]

Who cares about the "board" at this point, aside from short-sighted Trumpies?

This thing is real, and a million Orange Clowns can't wish it away.

I care about Board. You should too. Just badmouthing Board is a bannable offense. There are numerous threads in the Cafe and there's even a thread in D-I. Certain team threads have devolved into political talk too. That has been let go because no one has complained. People in this thread have. This is a refuge for people who want to discuss hockey. Period. "Board" really, really doesn't want to have to suspend or ban people right now. This forum is a needed escape. But if the political posts continue you're not leaving much choice.

Go. Find. Another. Thread.

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

I care about Board. You should too. Just badmouthing Board is a bannable offense. There are numerous threads in the Cafe and there's even a thread in D-I. Certain team threads have devolved into political talk too. That has been let go because no one has complained. People in this thread have. This is a refuge for people who want to discuss hockey. Period. "Board" really, really doesn't want to have to suspend or ban people right now. This forum is a needed escape. But if the political posts continue you're not leaving much choice.

Go. Find. Another. Thread.

Thanks so much.

I'm being pulled out of early retirement to deal with this sh*t.

You go ahead and care about this silly "board".

Those of us in health-care don't give a flying ___ about the "board". We actually have to show up for work and risk our parents' lives, by proxy, and our own, directly.

You really need to clam-up. You don't have a clue.

My hospital will be overwhelmed, and so will yours. It's truly amazing to me to see so many of you civilians happy to whistle around the graveyard right now.

This is real, OK?

[ticapnews]

Thanks so much.

I'm being pulled out of early retirement to deal with this sh*t.

You go ahead and care about this silly "board".

Those of us in health-care don't give a flying ___ about the "board". We actually have to show up for work and risk our parents' lives, by proxy, and our own, directly.

You really need to clam-up. You don't have a clue.

My hospital will be overwhelmed, and so will yours. It's truly amazing to me to see so many of you civilians happy to whistle around the graveyard right now.

This is real, OK?

My mother is likely dying so dont give me a lecture about what is real. Point is there are other places to vent than this thread. Use them.

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Sorry, just frustrated.

Tough times ahead.

[NUProf]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Sorry, just frustrated.

Tough times ahead.

To defend Fish, I think it is easier to vent and talk with people you "know." We are all frustrated and angry.

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

To defend Fish, I think it is easier to vent and talk with people you "know." We are all frustrated and angry.

Thanks for the kind words, Prof.

I should be considered too old to get back into the fray, but it's "all hands on deck" right now.

Not happy about that situation whatsoever, but we all must pitch-in as best we can.

Best of luck to you all.

[bakdraft21]

Re: Utica College hockey. ..Can we catch a break this season?

Big O at The U wins ROY...Congrats...Heenan Coach of yr.....what say you Fish??