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NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

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  • #16
    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

    @TonyMarinaro Just been told that Guy Lafleur went to get his heart checked this morning. DR told him he needs to have Quadruple Bypass Surgery. The surgery is scheduled for tomorrow. Best of luck to my childhood idol. #TheFlower #Habs #TSN690 https://t.co/Ghqqr2MINb

    -----
    @TSN At the request of his family, the Montreal Canadiens announce that Guy Lafleur had successful quadruple bypass heart surgery today.

    Our best wishes to #LeDemonBlond in his recovery. https://t.co/9N1ClMewsr #TSNHockey https://t.co/KRgeFfqeeD
    Last edited by joecct; 09-26-2019, 02:30 PM.
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    • #17
      Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

      I saw something I thought strange the other night. I was in Iowa with some friends and we were at one of their new sports books. I was looking at the "futures" bets for the NHL. I might not be entirely accurate on the exact odds, but the peculiarity I have right.

      Colorado was +2000 (basically, 20 to 1) to win the Cup, while St. Louis was +1800 to win the cup. But then, if you looked at the futures bets to win the Western Conference, Colorado was +550 (5.5 to 1) while St. Louis was +650.

      In other words, St. Louis was more favored than Colorado to win the Cup but Colorado was more favored than St. Louis to win the Western Conference.

      In the east there was a similar oddity, that I think involved Philadelphia.

      None of us who were there could figure it out, and the people at the sports book barely knew what the +2000 meant, so they were of no help. One of my friends speculated that maybe there was a big bet on Colorado to win the Cup, so therefore they lowered their odds on that bet to attract less money on them. Another friend guessed "typo" which given the fact that we were in Iowa seems about right, but the desk confirmed the odds. It doesn't have anything to do with the divisions they are in, since they're in the same division. It really has me puzzled.
      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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      • #18
        Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

        Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
        which given the fact that we were in Iowa seems about right
        Hatfields and McCoys
        Last edited by Kepler; 09-27-2019, 11:56 AM.
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        • #19
          Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

          You always have to remember that sports odds are designed to attract equal money on both sides. They aren't exact predictions of the likelihood of an outcome in real life.

          St Louis being the reigning champs may have a fair amount of money on them since they won the Cup. These bets are probably small money, but possibly numerous. Causal bettors are more likely to make a Cup bet over a Conference bet, so that could account for the flip.
          It's never too early to start the Pre-game festivities

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          • #20
            Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

            Originally posted by RaceBoarder View Post
            You always have to remember that sports odds are designed to attract equal money on both sides. They aren't exact predictions of the likelihood of an outcome in real life.
            I wonder if you could make a tidy living just betting against teams with delusional fanbases: Notre Dame, USC, Michigan; the Cowboys and Redskins; the Leafs and Rangers; the Knicks. Homer Arbitrage.
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            • #21
              Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
              I wonder if you could make a tidy living just betting against teams with delusional fanbases: Notre Dame, USC, Michigan; the Cowboys and Redskins; the Leafs and Rangers; the Knicks. Homer Arbitrage.
              I don't know about making a living doing that, but "Pros" absolutely know that there is a finger on the scale with teams like that.
              It's never too early to start the Pre-game festivities

              Go Cats!!! GO BLACKHAWKS!

              Cuck the Fubs... Let's Go WHITE SOX!!!

              Wildcat Born, Wildcat Bred....

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              • #22
                Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                I wonder if you could make a tidy living just betting against teams with delusional fanbases: Notre Dame, USC, Michigan; the Cowboys and Redskins; the Leafs and Rangers; the Knicks. Homer Arbitrage.
                The sports books also know that certain teams attract a lot of betting, including many that you listed.
                That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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                • #23
                  Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                  Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                  The sports books also know that certain teams attract a lot of betting, including many that you listed.
                  Do they build in a fudge factor?

                  I always assumed (I guess incorrectly) that the odds were a simple mathematical function of the action. The line moved always towards equality of action on either side of it, like a stock price. I thought it was just a deterministic function and the only input of the House was setting the initial seed.
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                  • #24
                    Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                    Do they build in a fudge factor?

                    I always assumed (I guess incorrectly) that the odds were a simple mathematical function of the action. The line moved always towards equality of action on either side of it, like a stock price. I thought it was just a deterministic function and the only input of the House was setting the initial seed.
                    The fudge factor comes in by moving the line. That is where "Pros" make their moves. If it plays out well enough, then can bacsically have winning bets on both sides based on small window(s) of certain outcomes...
                    It's never too early to start the Pre-game festivities

                    Go Cats!!! GO BLACKHAWKS!

                    Cuck the Fubs... Let's Go WHITE SOX!!!

                    Wildcat Born, Wildcat Bred....

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                    • #25
                      Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                      Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                      Do they build in a fudge factor?

                      I always assumed (I guess incorrectly) that the odds were a simple mathematical function of the action. The line moved always towards equality of action on either side of it, like a stock price. I thought it was just a deterministic function and the only input of the House was setting the initial seed.
                      The initial line by the books is just a kind of feeling out process. They set the line kind of where they think it should be based upon a variety of factors, including past experience that a lot of fans will bet the Patriots, for instance, or bet a favorite. Then, as the sharp money comes in they adjust it accordingly.

                      The sharp money waits for the initial line, waiting to pounce. They usually have their own "line" in mind, and if the initial line at the books is different enough, they will hit it hard.

                      Sometimes they'll put some early money down on one side just to see if they can get a shift in the line from the books, then bet big on the other side later in the week. A lot of sports books will have lower betting limits early, then raise them as the week goes on.

                      It's kind of interesting to watch. You might see a game where the line is set, and then a few days later you'll see that 85% of all the tickets are on one side but the line hasn't moved. That tells you that the public is the 85%, but the sharp money is going against the public and is putting enough money down to balance out the large disparity in tickets sold.
                      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                        Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                        The initial line by the books is just a kind of feeling out process. They set the line kind of where they think it should be based upon a variety of factors, including past experience that a lot of fans will bet the Patriots, for instance, or bet a favorite. Then, as the sharp money comes in they adjust it accordingly.

                        The sharp money waits for the initial line, waiting to pounce. They usually have their own "line" in mind, and if the initial line at the books is different enough, they will hit it hard.

                        Sometimes they'll put some early money down on one side just to see if they can get a shift in the line from the books, then bet big on the other side later in the week. A lot of sports books will have lower betting limits early, then raise them as the week goes on.

                        It's kind of interesting to watch. You might see a game where the line is set, and then a few days later you'll see that 85% of all the tickets are on one side but the line hasn't moved. That tells you that the public is the 85%, but the sharp money is going against the public and is putting enough money down to balance out the large disparity in tickets sold.
                        I didn't know there was a way of telling how much action went where.

                        In any case, you've disabused me of the notion that the line is driven by math. It's manually set and moved by the broker.

                        So clearly the way to beat the House is to infiltrate them and throw the line. :-)
                        Last edited by Kepler; 09-27-2019, 04:15 PM.
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                        • #27
                          Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                          https://www.facebook.com/StLouisBlue...0783274690632/

                          Dusty in here.

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                          • #28
                            Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                            Skating the cup to start the season feels weird.
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                            • #29
                              Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                              Not NHL related but hockey relevant: Jon Lee-Olsen, a goalie for Danish hockey champions Rungsted, has come out as gay. Link's in Danish. https://sport.tv2.dk/ishockey/2019-1...seksuelle-mand
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                              • #30
                                Re: NHL 2019-20 #1: Where Toronto Plans To Win Without Playing Defense.

                                Toronto blew a 4-1 lead today against the Habs, lose 6-5.

                                I'm laughing. Straight up laughing my flat *** off.
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