Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

Seems like a lot of data to say what is simple:
-Fans don't care about the Big Ten
-Lucia was held onto for at least three too many years
-This has been the worst decade for Gopher hockey in probably 50 years
-The team this year is underperforming
-Combine a bad team with the fans' love for the Big Ten and the ticket sale situation is obvious
-If they don't lower ticket prices again this summer your net STH count will continue to go down

Until you start winning games, or have season tickets at about 450 bucks for at least two zones, Mariucci will continue to be embarrassingly empty.

There isn't any empirical evidence based on the W% data that would confirm any of your points.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

Seems like a lot of data to say what is simple:
-Fans don't care about the Big Ten
-Lucia was held onto for at least three too many years
-This has been the worst decade for Gopher hockey in probably 50 years
-The team this year is underperforming
-Combine a bad team with the fans' love for the Big Ten and the ticket sale situation is obvious
-If they don't lower ticket prices again this summer your net STH count will continue to go down

Until you start winning games, or have season tickets at about 450 bucks for at least two zones, Mariucci will continue to be embarrassingly empty.

Problem is the cheapest seats are still the least full.

Maybe that actually proves your point. The fans who would buy those seats are the ones who are priced out and can’t afford it. Those corners are just infested with opposing fans.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

There isn't any empirical evidence based on the W% data that would confirm any of your points.

No but it’s basically a fact. Especially in markets where you have to fight tooth and nail for sports money. Nobody wants to pay loads of cash to see a bunch of losers.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

Problem is the cheapest seats are still the least full.

The cheapest seats aren't that cheap compared to a lot of the competition they face from other college programs, pro sports like the Wild, the various other entertainment options in the cities, or even just watching it at a bar or at home. I say this as someone who used to have season tickets in the end section and dropped them after the 14-15 season I think it was after it became quite clear that things were getting worse (in terms of the overall entertainment level of going to a game) and the U didn't really show any signs that the trend would reverse anytime soon.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

I've changed the image hosting URL, so let me know if you can see it now.

Yep, comes through perfectly now.

I'm not making an assessment other than what the moving mean data indicates, which highly correlates with the regression predictability of the slope and intercept of both the linear and polynomial regression analysis.

You are obviously a math guy - which I am not - so it would be best if I leave any comments I might have to the game being played on the ice!

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

The cheapest seats aren't that cheap compared to a lot of the competition they face from other college programs, pro sports like the Wild, the various other entertainment options in the cities, or even just watching it at a bar or at home. I say this as someone who used to have season tickets in the end section and dropped them after the 14-15 season I think it was after it became quite clear that things were getting worse (in terms of the overall entertainment level of going to a game) and the U didn't really show any signs that the trend would reverse anytime soon.

Yep...good points! I think the game time experience is another factor. When STHs and the Gen Ad. declines, the excitement of the crowd wanes and increasing more fans stop attending games. Without that 7th man, the X factor of crowd support hurts the team over the course of the season and may be a covariate in the consistent downward trend in W% since 2013-14.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

Neutral Zone, a website dedicated to amateur scouting and NCAA team ranking, created an algorithm that ranks top 40 NCAA team recruiting classes based mostly on the individual players in their class’ star rating, player's age, where they played before entering D1 hockey and at what position.

Each new recruit has a different weighted average based on the past 5 seasons trend. For example, success rates of a player coming out of the USHL are different than a player coming out of the Central Canada Hockey League (CCHL) with variable weight assigned to each league.

Recruiting Class Ranking (2016-2018) 3 year average (Chart #1) indicates the Gophers had the 3rd best recruiting class in the NCAA. The 2 year average (2017-18, Chart #2) has the Gophers at #2.

The algorithm for Chart #3 is even more precise assigning star ratings along with other factors into points. A 5 star player out of NTDP carries the maximum amount of points (over 400 pts) while a 3.5 star prospect out of the National Collegiate Development Conference (NCDC) may carry only 75 points. So a recruiting class is ranked on quantity and quality based upon points and then the total is accumulated as total team points.

The Gophers ranked 3rd on Chart #3.

Chart #4 is the most important metric of all because it measures the purely quality of the players. The best way to read it is look at the average and then compare that to the individual years data to see the variability and whether teams are consistent or not in their talent. The Gophers from 2016-2018 are ranked 1st in the nation in this category of pure quality of new recruits.

With recruiting rankings like these, it's unconscionable to cast blame, on what has been often characterized as a "mess" this season, completely on the players. IMO Motzko and his staff have done a mediocre/poor job of coaching the talent they've been given.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

That algorithm might need some tweaking lol.

To elaborate, the gophers have gotten a number of guys from the NTDP over the years so regardless of how good they are they'll get a boost from the algorithm. Someone like Reedy isn't great in college and probably won't even be an above average player in the AHL nor is Jack Glover but the algorithm would give them a boost for previously being on the NTPD. Also I didn't realize at first that it's a total accumulation of points so teams with a larger recruiting class (say your team has 10 seniors leave) will almost certainly have a top recruiting class simply due to the number of spots it needs to fill.

That's not to say Bob is entirely off the hook for what we've been seeing nor argue against that narrative (time will tell once he gets more of his recruits here), the PP this year is a gong show, his choice of assistants remains a ? at best, and Brodzinski doesn't really belong in the NCAA right now.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

That algorithm might need some tweaking lol.

To elaborate, the gophers have gotten a number of guys from the NTDP over the years so regardless of how good they are they'll get a boost from the algorithm. Someone like Reedy isn't great in college and probably won't even be an above average player in the AHL nor is Jack Glover but the algorithm would give them a boost for previously being on the NTPD. Also I didn't realize at first that it's a total accumulation of points so teams with a larger recruiting class (say your team has 10 seniors leave) will almost certainly have a top recruiting class simply due to the number of spots it needs to fill.

First, you're looking at one IV. Secondly, they're apparently using a regression analysis on all players from many conferences to calculate a slope and intercept trend to assign numerical values over a 5 year period. Algorithms are designed to specifically target and eliminate ambiguity. The site does not provide the details of their data analysis, so it's premature to make any assessment. It appears they do the same thing with "star" ratings which are more specific in detail per player based upon a broader range of assessment criteria. Whether players underperform in the NCAA or anywhere else may be due to a host of other factorials and is not the purpose of the study.

The data collection and analysis of this study requires a familiarity with multivariate statistics.

They do highlight the limitation you mentioned on team recruiting needs. "Penn State went from 3rd best class in ’16 to 23rd best in ’17 to 57 in ’18. In ’16 they brought in a big class and therefore they didn’t need as many recruits in ’17 or ’18 so it’s not as if they aren’t getting good players anymore, they just didn’t need as many". But longitudinally, there's seems to be enough accuracy based upon their 5 year linear regression analysis to prevent a Type I error and rank the three season cumulative totals.

Their constituency of in-house NHL scouts, as well as contract scouts from the NHL, WHL, OHL, QMJHL and USHL that cover nearly every geographical region in the United States and Canada including many non-traditional hockey markets use this same algorithm to rank NHL prospects.

As far as Gopher recruits are concerned, IMO there's plenty of talent on this team. The above analysis provides some evidence of that. A first half W% of .389, the second lowest in 25 years is pathetic and Motzko and his staff must take responsibility for this debacle. Have you seen the recruits on deck for 2020, 2021??

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

With recruiting rankings like these, it's unconscionable to cast blame, on what has been often characterized as a "mess" this season, completely on the players. IMO Motzko and his staff have done a mediocre/poor job of coaching the talent they've been given.

The exact regression type they used is largely irrelevant to this particular argument though, the Gophers clearly aren't that talented, there are very few players on this team that would be playing on the 2012-13 team that had at least 6 guys go to the NHL and was a #1 team for most of the year, just for an easy comparison to what a good Gopher team looks like. The verdict is still out but this team likely won't make the playoffs and the only guys on this team that seem like a reasonable bet to crack the NHL are the freshmen D.

If the model is indicating that the Gophers recruits of the last 3 years are better than Duluth then it's probably not very effective in terms of aiding the argument that you're making here.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

The on-ice results have been very sub-optimal, but I'm also seeing plenty of skill that's unfortunately been wasted. The team needed a cultural change and they are still in the opening phases of that migration. Of the games I've been lucky enough to see so far this season due to limited streaming options for me here, I see a lot of skill but a lack of cohesion. I've witnessed speed, solid puck-handling and defensive positioning. Not in isolation either, but they haven't yet found that it factor that puts it all together. There is a foundation and I expect some of the kids currently being pegged as lacking talent will eventually find themselves labeled, "finally found their groove" and with that the team results will follow.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

The exact regression type they used is largely irrelevant to this particular argument though, the Gophers clearly aren't that talented, there are very few players on this team that would be playing on the 2012-13 team that had at least 6 guys go to the NHL and was a #1 team for most of the year.

Sorry trix, it is relevant within a 95% confidence interval. You're making a judgment call based upon your subjective observation now. That is not the point of the study. Secondly, the study disagrees with you indicating there is significant talent on this team.

To your point, there are several statistical sports models with a cohort of performance data and judgment criteria that have proven to be highly predictive and accurate that may indicate why these talented Gopher players are underperforming. IMO Motzko and his coaching staff tactics would play a central role in that analysis.

EDIT: This is not a personal slam on you, but the statement below tells me a lot about your lack of understanding statistical analysis as in the one I've posted.

If the model is indicating that the Gophers recruits of the last 3 years are better than Duluth then it's probably not very effective in terms of aiding the argument that you're making here.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

EDIT: This is not a personal slam on you, but the statement below tells me a lot about your lack of understanding statistical analysis as in the one I've posted.

I've taken econometrics and multivariate stat courses, these concepts are not foreign to me and your condescending schtick isn't fooling anyone other than yourself. If the study is arguing that the gophers are more talented than Duluth over the last 3 years then there are likely some serious issues with the methodology of star ratings or their algorithm which uses star ratings and various weights for age/league (young players from the NTPD get a huge boost whether they're Casey Mittlestadt or Jack Glover). The study may disagree with me but what actually happens in reality also doesn't "agree" with this study. That's not subjective lol, we can see how each team performed during that time and compare as well as how many guys played at higher levels etc.

Also where are they getting the Gophers #8 PWR ranking (from 2017-19) from?

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

Yeah. The gophers are not in any measurable way better than the bulldogs.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

Yeah. The gophers are not in any measurable way better than the bulldogs.

That site is trying to predict future NHL talent so if team A is loaded with young guys with potential and team B is loaded with older guys who are better currently but won't be NHL bound, I can kinda see how a site might rank team A as more "talented" because they're more concerned with predicting the future than examining the present. So team A could be more "talented" even if they lose straight up to team B. I don't think that even applies in this comparison but theoretically it could.

edit: this is also a pay site that doesn't even disclose a lot of their methodology so I'm not sure why anyone thinks we should just automatically trust their judgement when making arguments about the talent level of a team