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Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

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  • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

    Another nope.
    Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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    • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

      I was a "wait until next year" guy.
      Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
      Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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      • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

        Coach Doug Woog's life will always be an inspiration to Gopher hockey and others in the hockey world and beyond. This season is dedicated to the Wooger and the Gophers will wear the "Woog patch" until season's end. Good to finally see the latent Gopher talent on display turning this season around. Gophers are 9-2-1 since wearing the Woog patch for the Mariucci Classic.



        Image result for doug woog an inspiration

        GO GOPHERS!!
        Last edited by SteveO; 02-17-2020, 05:56 AM.

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        • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

          Nice setup by McManus to Meyers getting it done from the slot. Gophers had won only 2/11 games when trailing after 2. Nice comeback win...they may need another one of those this weekend vs Penn St.


          PSU lost and tied ND three weeks ago on home ice, and have faltered a bit in their last ten games (3-4-3). Penn ended the Gopher's 2017-18 season with a sweep. Time for some payback. Three points or more this weekend puts the Gophers in a nice spot for the B1G title, a first round bye and home ice in the B1G tourney.
          Last edited by SteveO; 02-18-2020, 11:59 PM.

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          • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

            Originally posted by SteveO View Post
            Nice setup by McManus to Meyers getting it done from the slot. Gophers had won only 2/11 games when trailing after 2. Nice comeback win...they may need another one of those this weekend vs Penn St.


            PSU lost and tied ND three weeks ago on home ice, and have faltered a bit in their last ten games (3-4-3). Penn ended the Gopher's 2017-18 season with a sweep. Time for some payback. Three points or more this weekend puts the Gophers in a nice spot for the B1G title, a first round bye and home ice in the B1G tourney.
            Definitely would put them in a good spot. But, there is the PWR to think about as well. Should the Gophers win the Reg Season BIG title, their PWR would likely fall with a home-ice loss in the BIG semis. So, the scenarios as I see them....

            W and a T (NCAA rules) vs PSU....split with Mich.....Big title, and probably PWR safe because of good opposition here. Anything more than this would likely leave them safe in any case. Anything better than this for results and I think the NCAA bid is safe, barring some strange parlay of Conf Tourney winners nationwide.

            Splits all the way....Probably BIG title. In this scenario, a BIG semi win might be necessary to qualify for NCAAs

            Less than splits....PWR drag, and therefore needing wins in the BIG tourney. With less than splits, and winning the BIG title (possible, very possible..for example, 2 pts this weekend and a split v Michigan would do it), it's very possible that the Gophers would still need to win the BIG tourney to qualify for NCAAs

            Less than splits this weekend, and the better situation MIGHT be to not win the title, to get the home sweep in the quarters for PWR purposes.

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            • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
              Definitely would put them in a good spot. But, there is the PWR to think about as well. Should the Gophers win the Reg Season BIG title, their PWR would likely fall with a home-ice loss in the BIG semis. So, the scenarios as I see them....

              W and a T (NCAA rules) vs PSU....split with Mich.....Big title, and probably PWR safe because of good opposition here. Anything more than this would likely leave them safe in any case. Anything better than this for results and I think the NCAA bid is safe, barring some strange parlay of Conf Tourney winners nationwide.

              Splits all the way....Probably BIG title. In this scenario, a BIG semi win might be necessary to qualify for NCAAs

              Less than splits....PWR drag, and therefore needing wins in the BIG tourney. With less than splits, and winning the BIG title (possible, very possible..for example, 2 pts this weekend and a split v Michigan would do it), it's very possible that the Gophers would still need to win the BIG tourney to qualify for NCAAs

              Less than splits this weekend, and the better situation MIGHT be to not win the title, to get the home sweep in the quarters for PWR purposes.
              Lots of scenarios still remain to be played out, but there are a couple where splits with Penn and Mich. (6 pts) locks the Gophers into the B1G title. As you mentioned, even an L and T w/SOW vs Penn and Mich split wins the title, but that won't help us much in the PWR. It's still a little early to crunch the PWR numbers until there's a clearer picture of the 4th band after this weekend.
              Last edited by SteveO; 02-19-2020, 12:44 PM.

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              • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                Originally posted by SteveO View Post
                Lots of scenarios still remain to be played out, but there are a couple where splits with Penn and Mich. (6 pts) locks the Gophers into the B1G title. As you mentioned, even an L and T w/SOW vs Penn and Mich split wins the title, but that won't help us much in the PWR. It's still a little early to crunch the PWR numbers until there's a clearer picture of the 4th band after this weekend.
                Completely agree, Steve. In my mind I was trying to compare 2 scenarios....
                1) 2 splits and a BIG title, with a loss in the BIG semi.... (would mean 2-3 in 5 games)
                2) a win, a tie and 2 losses, and no BIG title, but a sweep in the BIG quarter finals, and then a semi-final loss. That would be (1-2-1, 2-0, 0-1) or (3-3-1) in 7 games. The latter of these is the better if you want a higher PWR.

                So, my point was...in the end, the best idea might NOT be a BIG title. At least not a BIG title by barely scraping by.

                Now, on the other hand, if you hand me 3-1 or 2-0-2 in the next 4 games, and a BIG title. I'll take that, because I think that, even with a semi loss, that's a good chance to make the NCAAs.

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                • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                  Just win games... Get the bye. Go 3-1 and hang a banner then try to at least win the semi.

                  To rely on all the math while not taking care of business will just bite you in the butt. We saw a few years ago that like seven things having to go wrong on the last day can happen.

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                  • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                    Originally posted by Bonin21 View Post
                    Just win games... Get the bye. Go 3-1 and hang a banner then try to at least win the semi.

                    To rely on all the math while not taking care of business will just bite you in the butt. We saw a few years ago that like seven things having to go wrong on the last day can happen.
                    This. Winning the league but missing the NCAAs would be bad. That was my point.

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                    • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                      Completely agree, Steve. In my mind I was trying to compare 2 scenarios....
                      1) 2 splits and a BIG title, with a loss in the BIG semi.... (would mean 2-3 in 5 games)
                      2) a win, a tie and 2 losses, and no BIG title, but a sweep in the BIG quarter finals, and then a semi-final loss. That would be (1-2-1, 2-0, 0-1) or (3-3-1) in 7 games. The latter of these is the better if you want a higher PWR.

                      So, my point was...in the end, the best idea might NOT be a BIG title. At least not a BIG title by barely scraping by.

                      Now, on the other hand, if you hand me 3-1 or 2-0-2 in the next 4 games, and a BIG title. I'll take that, because I think that, even with a semi loss, that's a good chance to make the NCAAs.
                      The BEST idea is to win the B1G and secure the first round bye, positioning the Gophers as the #1 Seed vs. Lowest Advancing Seed at Mariucci, where the Gophers would be the clear favorite. Barring any late season meltdown, and given the Gopher's recent W/L trendline, and a bye and home ice advantage in the tourney if they win the title, assuming a B1G semi final loss is perhaps a bridge too far.

                      I expect B1G playoff style hockey to begin this weekend until season end, with wins being hard to come by and sweeps even more so.

                      Just for the heck of it, I calculated the PWR at season end with ALL remaining B1G series as splits top to bottom. With the Gophers splitting with Penn and Mich, I have them winning the B1G title with 42 pts. and Penn and Mich tied for second with 39.

                      That lands the Gophers at #13 in the PWR going into the B1G tourney. If they win the semi, they could feasibly squeak into the 3rd band depending on what Ohio State, Maine, Western Michigan, and Mass.-Lowell do. Even if they lose the semi, they can still land at #14 for an at large bid. Given that most conferences are stacked with ranked teams, my assumption at this point is American International is the only autobid. Note: This post is subject to change.

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                      • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                        Just win baby. Gophers would likely be as high as 12th if they finish 3-1, which also gives them the first round at home. I wouldn't see them playing their way out of the top 15 in that scenario.

                        Tall order though given recent play against PSU but hey this is the best time of the year.

                        Go Skippers today against Roseau. I'm sure that will be a popular opinion outside of Minnetonka.

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                        • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                          Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post
                          Just win baby. Gophers would likely be as high as 12th if they finish 3-1, which also gives them the first round at home. I wouldn't see them playing their way out of the top 15 in that scenario.

                          Tall order though given recent play against PSU but hey this is the best time of the year.

                          Go Skippers today against Roseau. I'm sure that will be a popular opinion outside of Minnetonka.
                          The funny part is ESPN stated that Minnetonka and EP's main rival is the center of the center of the American hockey universe.
                          Slap Shot - 444 might want to consider a restraining order.
                          dggoddard - Minnesota is THE ELITE Program in all of college hockey.
                          wasmania - you have to be the very best to get ice time with the great gophers!

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                          • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                            Originally posted by 4four4 View Post
                            The funny part is ESPN stated that Minnetonka and EP's main rival is the center of the center of the American hockey universe.
                            You probably still watch Sports Center too.

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                            • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                              From GPL message board:

                              Jim Dahl has provided updated material on college hockey ranked

                              With 4 games remaining, info as follows with my (not MINE, but the OP's own feelings afterward:

                              Win 0: ranked 20 or worse; need to win conference tournament
                              Win 1: ranked 19-20; need to win conference tournament
                              Win 2: ranked 16-18; need to win conference tournament
                              Win 3: ranked 12-14; would definitely need to win a game or two in B10 tournament
                              Win 4: ranked 9-11; would feel safe with 1 win in B10 tournament, but probably locked for an at large
                              Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                              Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                              Comment


                              • Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2019-2020: Motzko 2.0

                                #15 must be an astrophysics dilemma. Jim Dahl is using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) which assumes a specific and historically derived data set to calculate game outcomes and the maximum likelihood of a mean range of PWR. The problem with MLE in this case is the data is interdependent, not independent, and therefore it cannot take into account every permutation nor current trends. A quick check and IMO Jim's recent update of the Gopher's PWR range of #13-#15 based upon winning 2-3 games/4 is the more unbiased and accurate estimation at this stage.

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