Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

They're NCAA-caliber. If they were NHL-caliber they would be in the NHL and getting paid to play.

These guys won't get out of the ECHL if they play like that.

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Updates after the Clarkson series (L 0-4, W 4-3)

Record: 4-2-0
USCHO Poll: 7
USA Today Poll: (not yet released, will update)
PWR: 8
RPI: 8
KRACH: not available
Scoring: 4.5 GPG; 2nd
Defense: 3.33 GAPG; 44th
Power Play Goals: 7; 1st
Power Play Rate: 25.00% (7 of 28); 8th
Penalty Kill Rate: 90.91% (20 of 22), 20th
Penalty Min per Game: 10.83; 36th (1st is worst)
Shorthanded Goals Scored; 3; 1st
Shorthanded Goals Allowed: 0; 1st
Team Faceoff: 50.6%; 22nd

That's some improvement and huge jump in PWR. Need to improve on the defensive side of things.....

[DPlaya]

Weissbach-Baker-S. Dhooghe
Ahcan-Holloway-C. Caufield
Gorniak-Pelton-Byce-Lindmark
Zimmer-Messner-B. Caufield

Miller-Emberson
Kalynuk-Inamoto
Ess-Vorlicky

Lebedeff
Barry

These were the lines somebody posted for Saturday, but I think J. Dhooghe played. Wonder how they are going to look Thursday with Turcotte back in the lineup? Will Zimmer and J. Dhooghe make the lineup again?

Will Tony go back to his desire to have the penalty killers stay in the bottom 6?

[digitalbooya]

These were the lines somebody posted for Saturday, but I think J. Dhooghe played. Wonder how they are going to look Thursday with Turcotte back in the lineup? Will Zimmer and J. Dhooghe make the lineup again?

Will Tony go back to his desire to have the penalty killers stay in the bottom 6?

It was the lineup Milewski had on Twitter. It listed J Dhooghe as an extra skater. Almost certain he played as well.

I hope Ahcan-Lindmark just keep doing their thing on the PK.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

These were the lines somebody posted for Saturday, but I think J. Dhooghe played. Wonder how they are going to look Thursday with Turcotte back in the lineup? Will Zimmer and J. Dhooghe make the lineup again?

Will Tony go back to his desire to have the penalty killers stay in the bottom 6?

It's kind of a conundrum. First, I think they put Linus back with Turk and Goal. After that though I don't know what they'll do. On the one hand, if you truly want to reward the guys who play the best with more ice time, you put Lindy and Rome with Holloway as they were the best players on the ice last weekend. Which leave you Dhooghe-Bakes -TPB. I kind of like that vs. PSU because it matches a line with the 5'3" Dhooghster vs 6'8" Pavlychev and I think Dhooghe is oddly more effective and plays better against guys like that.

On the other hand though, PSU has a really, really, dangerous PP and with the way that PP goals can change momentum, do you really not want to have your best PK pair on the ice?

I would move Lindy and Rome up because they've earned the ice time, but I'm not at all certain that's the best thing to do. Be interesting to see what they do decide.

[BWHockey]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

ESG---SOG/GP---Pen----Line
3 ------ 7 -------- 10 ---- Baker-Holloway-S.Dhooghe
5 ------ 7.75 -- --- 3 ---- Weissbach-Turc-C.Caufield
6 ------ 5.34 -- --- 1 ---- Ahcan-TPB-Lindmark
1 ------ 6.56 -- --- 3 ---- Gorniak & Co. (Brock,Ryder,Mick,Dom,JD&Max)

ESG = Even Strength Goals ("Total Goals - PPGF - SHGF", couldn't find official stats so had to create it on my own)

It's not rational to think Wisc's SHGF will be > PPGA like it is now (+1). You also have to assume that they’ll give up a higher % of goals on the PK. The top 30 PK%s last year averaged about 85%, Wisc is at 90% currently. What I’m getting at is the Baker – Holloway – S. Dhooghe line will eventually start costing the team in the form of more PPGA, less PPP time and less Even Strength Time.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

ESG---SOG/GP---Pen----Line
5 ------ 7 -------- 10 ---- Baker-Holloway-S.Dhooghe
5 ------ 7.75 -- --- 3 ---- Weissbach-Turc-C.Caufield
6 ------ 5.34 -- --- 1 ---- Ahcan-TPB-Lindmark
1 ------ 6.56 -- --- 3 ---- Gorniak & Co. (Brock,Ryder,Mick,Dom,JD&Max)

ESG = Even Strength Goals ("Total Goals - PPGF - SHGF", couldn't find official stats so had to create it on my own)

It's not rational to think Wisc's SHGF will be > PPGA like it is now (+1). You also have to assume that they’ll give up a higher % of goals on the PK. The top 30 PK%s last year averaged about 85%, Wisc is at 90% currently. What I’m getting at is the Baker – Holloway – S. Dhooghe line will eventually start costing the team in the form of more PPGA, less PPP time and less Even Strength Time.

Baker has 1 ES goal, Holloway has 1 ES goal, Dhooghe has 1 ENG, None have a PPG, so that number seems wrong to me to start?


One of the huge problems with NCAA stats is the lack of TOI stats. It's possible, for example, that Holloway's line has a lower penalty/minute played rate than the 4th line does, due to much, much, more ice time.

The other thing about this is that I think the sample size is entirely too small to draw this sort of conclusion from 6 total games, but 2 without Turcotte, so 1/3 of the data comes from games where some or all lines were changed.

SOG/G stats are skewed on this team right now too, although they may continue that way for awhile. Turcotte and Lindmark combine for 7 goals on 12 shots, so you could say one of their shots is worth maybe 4 or 5 shots from the other guys. Its pretty early, and even later on, without TOI, some of this stuff is hard to interpret correctly.

[BWHockey]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Thanks, I had them at 3 ESG in my spreadsheet, but transposed in wrong. I totally agree with you on the TOI stat. Regarding the SOG/GP stats, I'm not drawing any conclusion from it, just showing that it's relatively even. Also, i know 1/3 is a little skewed and the sample size is small, but these are the lines that we seen when everyone has been available. It'll be interesting to see where this data set is in a month or two.

Baker has 1 ES goal, Holloway has 1 ES goal, Dhooghe has 1 ENG, None have a PPG, so that number seems wrong to me to start?

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Thanks, I had them at 3 ESG in my spreadsheet, but transposed in wrong. I totally agree with you on the TOI stat. Regarding the SOG/GP stats, I'm not drawing any conclusion from it, just showing that it's relatively even. Also, i know 1/3 is a little skewed and the sample size is small, but these are the lines that we seen when everyone has been available. It'll be interesting to see where this data set is in a month or two.

I was referring to SOG/ goals scored likely being an anomaly right now. Doubtful Lindy and Turk continue at .500 or .600 SH% all year. Although I'd be happy if they did!

I gathered you were concluding that Holloway's line will cost the team eventually, basically because of the penalty rate their on right now. Sorry if that's wrong. I was just thinking that it's hard to tell comparatively just how bad it is, (agree it's too high though) and whether or not it's just an early season anomaly. (Hopefully) This did make me check their +/- though and it's 0, -1, -1. Considering they only have 3 goals, and assuming they have played a lot of minutes against top scoring lines, (seems like they have) we can't totally disregard the value they might add in stopping opponents from scoring. If they are. Be interesting to know if the lines they played against scored less than their average. Seems probable.

On another subject, one of the little things I noticed happening this last weekend is that a lot of guys weren't making timely changes in the O zone. We'd get them pinned in and hold the puck for a minute or more without changing, then the turnover would come, they'd change to the top line behind the play and we'd have 5 gassed guys getting pinned in our end and giving up scoring chances. It's something guys have to be more disciplined about. That can not only be costly at the time, but those 2-3 minute shifts add up by late in the game when you really need your legs to work.

[BWHockey]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

In 18-19 an average Shots on Goal / Goals For of the Top 30 Teams was 9.7. Right now, the LAPB and Turc lines are at 4 Shots per Goal. It’s hard to imagine that will continue, just like it’s hard to imagine the 4th line will continue at a 27 Shots/ Goal pace when these players averaged 10.8 Shots / Goals in 18-19.

You got my thoughts on the Holloway line correct. Their penalty rate probably won’t continue at this pace, but if it does it has to be addressed bc overall penalties will start to have a negative impact.

I guess I’m also surprised that we are -1 at Even Strength (17GF v 18GA),-2 if you take out Dhooghe’s ENG.

Any thoughts on whether Roman (5’9”) will get drafted this year because of his play?

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Any thoughts on whether Roman (5’9”) will get drafted this year because of his play?

Roman will be 21 in March and North American players over the age of 20 on Dec. 31 of their draft year are not eligible for the NHL draft.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Speaking of the draft, with all the scouts watching Holloway this year, it can only be a benefit to the undrafted guys that play well. Some of them will get noticed again if they perform. Vorlicky will be eligible yet next year, and if I were a scout, I'd put him down right now for a later round pick. He's done a nice job so far for a kid 6 games removed from High school. He's got some chops and somebody should take him.

[DPlaya]

Speaking of the draft, with all the scouts watching Holloway this year, it can only be a benefit to the undrafted guys that play well. Some of them will get noticed again if they perform. Vorlicky will be eligible yet next year, and if I were a scout, I'd put him down right now for a later round pick. He's done a nice job so far for a kid 6 games removed from High school. He's got some chops and somebody should take him.

There have been tons of NHL scouts at the games. It was reported there were 23 or 24 there for one of the UMD games and that about half the teams had scouts there for one of the Clarkson games.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

On to more important stuff -- > It's GAME DAY!!!

Big B1G series here between two teams that could be in the mix at the top of the conference at year's end. Personally I'm feeling a little apprehensive about how things will go. PSU last played (not very well in a 2-1 win over Robert Morris) last Friday and have had extra time to get ready for the Badgers. Meanwhile we're on a short week, plus travel (Badgers arrived in Happy Valley yesterday) plus Holloway missed two days of practice with various minor injuries after a pair of super physical games at home. Like UMD and the Clarkies, PSU is laden with upper classmen. With 5 Seniors in the top six, and 13 upperclassmen skating it's really a veteran team and going to be a huge challenge for the young Badgers. Also, we're going from the big sheet to the small one, which is always significant to me because time and space are in short supply on the small sheet after having had more of each the week before.

We get Turcotte back, which is huge for us, but he's obviously coming back from illness and time off that Freshman can ill afford. Still, he's a tremendous talent and can really make things happen on both ends of the ice. Biggest key for the Badgers will be to take care of the puck. D can't just be chipping it into traffic at the blue line in their own zone, have to get it out clean or skate. Forwards have to get back to the dots in support. Cannot turn the puck over at the offensive blue line and create odd man rushes. PSU can score on all lines, so we can't put the Hammer in a high percentage shooting gallery all night and expect him to keep bailing us out. Avoid the bad turnovers and the Badgers will have a chance to steal some points on the road.

How will it all go? I have no idea. But I hate losing to these jerks.

Let's GO RED!!!

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

There have been tons of NHL scouts at the games. It was reported there were 23 or 24 there for one of the UMD games and that about half the teams had scouts there for one of the Clarkson games.

That Josh Dunne kid from Clarkson has NHL written all over him. Really impressive player and I have to believe he'll be pushed hard to sign a FA contract in the spring.