Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

But that doesn't 'save' a flight; it is still two flights and two drives. Yes, Lindenwood would mean 'three drives', but otherwise I don't see why you assume UMD to Madison and not Minneapolis. If Lindenwood is not the CHA winner, then you get two drives and two flights either way.

Yes, it does save a flight. If any team other than Lindenwood wins the CHA, then they drive to Ithaca. Princeton drives to Boston. So, the only two options to send to Madison are UMD and OSU. Assuming that UMD is ranked lower than OSU, they drive to Madison, and OSU flies to Minneapolis. Sending anyone else to Madison increases the number of flights.

Lindenwood is a flight anywhere, so if they win the CHA, then there are two flights regardless, and it fits the NCAA's rules to send them to Madison, UMD to Minneapolis, and Princeton and OSU to the eastern hosts.

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

"Suppose the current Top 7 in the Pairwise make the tournament" was part of his scenario, "no Duluth" was an assumption.

That was never an assumption of my scenarios. In fact, it was expressly ruled out in the case of my Scenario #2, where I stipulated that both UMD and OSU make the tournament.

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

That was never an assumption of my scenarios. In fact, it was expressly ruled out in the case of my Scenario #2, where I stipulated that both UMD and OSU make the tournament.

Yes, but I posted that particular "Clarkson vs Wisconsin" response to pgb-ohio's scenario.

We're having multiple conversations that are 'crossing' and getting confused.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

I am way late on here, so I am not going to do my usual recap. I will just link the recap from ohiostatebuckeyes.com.

https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/buckey...ame-at-duluth/

I listened to Coach Muzerall's interview on twitter. For some reason it was on twitter, but not in the story. Coach actually thought we played very well yesterday. The problem is, the scoreboard is all that matters. I suppose I should not really be surprised. This program just cannot win in Duluth, as evidenced by a 1-9 record up there in the past five seasons. The Buckeyes have not won a game in Duluth since the 2015-16 season. Since then, they have gone 0-8 in Duluth.

Thanks Pgb and everyone else who tried to "talk me off the ledge." You guys are the best! Robertearle, you are a guru when it comes to the PairWise and you were correct that OSU did not drop below 6th. Unfortunately for this team, they still have not completely learned how to beat teams they are supposed to beat, and until they reach that level (ie. Minnesota & Wisconsin), we'll have to settle for being in that 5-8 range and dealing with road trips in the quarterfinals. Sigh. Looking forward to the day when Coach has our program at that level where we are not losing and tying teams ranked lower than us. Those losses and ties are the reason we are on the outside looking in when it comes to the top four and a home quarterfinal in the NCAA Tournament. I love our program, and obviously, Coach Muzerall has the program headed in the right direction, but clearly, they are not there yet. Have a great week everyone!

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Right now, I'm not sure UMD is a team anyone is just supposed to beat.

[ARM]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Right now, I'm not sure UMD is a team anyone is just supposed to beat.

Word.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Right now, I'm not sure UMD is a team anyone is just supposed to beat.

UMD is obviously playing very well right now, but the PairWise apparently thought we should have won up there as evidenced by the fact that they dropped us from 5th to 6th. But I do tend to agree with you that UMD looks like they have figured things out and are playing as well as anyone in the WCHA right now.

[ARM]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

UMD is obviously playing very well right now, but the PairWise apparently thought we should have won up there as evidenced by the fact that they dropped us from 5th to 6th.

I'd recommend that one not ever use the PairWise to try to predict outcomes. You're better off looking at KRACH or WCHODR. For example, WCHODR predicted OSU with 2.88 at UMD with 2.56. So you were a favorite by less than a 1/3 of a goal in a system that doesn't take into account that a team like UMD is playing better in the second half than it did in the first half. Compare that to Wisconsin being a favorite over MSU by 4.85 over 1.37 and settling for a split.

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

So you were a favorite by less than a 1/3 of a goal in a system that doesn't take into account that a team like UMD is playing better in the second half than it did in the first half.

Not to mention the fact that UMD was playing at home, for whatever fraction of a goal that might be worth.

[ARM]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Not to mention the fact that UMD was playing at home, for whatever fraction of a goal that might be worth.

I think that WCHODR factors in home ice.

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

I think that WCHODR factors in home ice.

Not having ever used WCHODR I wasn't familiar with it, but it looks like you are right:

http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/faq.html
"An adjustment is also made for home-ice advantage."

How much of an adjustment is not given.

Current rankings: http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html

[ARM]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

How much of an adjustment is not given.

I wonder if the math is smart enough to determine the advantage based on how well the two teams play at home versus away. Another possibility is that it is a sliding scale such that home ice isn't always worth a quarter of a goal, but might be worth more in a game that is calculated to have a 5 to 4 final than one that works out to 1.75 to 1.5.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

I'd recommend that one not ever use the PairWise to try to predict outcomes. You're better off looking at KRACH or WCHODR. For example, WCHODR predicted OSU with 2.88 at UMD with 2.56. So you were a favorite by less than a 1/3 of a goal in a system that doesn't take into account that a team like UMD is playing better in the second half than it did in the first half. Compare that to Wisconsin being a favorite over MSU by 4.85 over 1.37 and settling for a split.

LOL, I don't use the PairWise to predict outcomes. I just know from years of watching the PairWise that they drop teams when they lose to teams ranked below them.

[ARM]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

I just know from years of watching the PairWise that they drop teams when they lose to teams ranked below them.

The PairWise drops you when you lose to teams ranked above you as well. And left to its own devices, it even wants to drop you at times for beating teams ranked far below you. The PairWise is a never-ending font of unhappiness.

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

The PairWise is a never-ending font of unhappiness.

Truth!