Re: UNH Wildcats 2019 Offseason - How Much Progress Did We Really Make This Past Seas
Chuck, I can assure you Denver’s play (and I’ve watched all of their recent games, including the UND series in person) has reflected their shot totals. There is meaning there in how they've played - even if they've survived the bottom line. Their offense and overall puck-possession/chance-generation has been extremely challenged lately…
North Dakota completely out played them in both games of the QF series - but the Fighting Hawks simply cannot finish. They buzz, but they have limited offensive skill on their current roster and have a very hard time scoring. That was the biggest factor in the score staying down in that series…
UMass will not have the same problems if they get the same chances. There are three elite scoring teams in the country this season (> 3.50 GPG). UMass is one of them. Penn State and St. Cloud are the other. In a pair of games this season, St. Cloud dropped a four-spot on Denver each night. They got extremely fortunate when AIC knocked off the Huskies and now they’ll have to face St. Cloud East in the Frozen Four…
Denver has played great defensively much of the season – and especially lately. They forecheck well and they defend well in their own zone. Larsson (a Red Wings pick) has been very, very good in goal. Still, if Denver is going to win this match-up (and they certainly are capable) they need to be much better in creating offensive chances of their own and take the game to UMass on occasion.
North Dakota, Ohio State and UMD all play a pro-style game. They love to grind it out on the walls and in the cycle to create offensive chances. This plays right into Denver’s preferred style of defense. UMass is a high-flying college hockey team of old – they want to get up and go in transition. They’ll dangle and switch and get creative, forcing Denver to get their feet moving more in their offensive zone rather than just collapsing around the goal. They have scorers who can convert difficult chances – and have consistently.
It’s an entirely different style of game than what DU has faced recently. If they just want to forecheck and play defense they’ll have a really difficult time trying to win this game. They need to skate and push back on UMass with some of their own medicine to advance. They’re can accomplish this if they play up to their natural abilities (and if Pettersen is healthy - without him their chances drop dramatically, IMO) – but it has not necessarily been their approach against top competition for much of the season…
Also of note, UMass is the better scoring defense (slightly – 1.97 GAA to 1.98), much better on the PK and has posted three shutouts in their last four outings to match Denver's recent run. It’s the classic Watcher argument for building a defense – would you rather have great defenders or a bunch of guys who rarely have to play defense because they always have the puck…
I like both teams – they are both great and have earned the right to be here – but, I’ve seen Denver play 20-some times this season (I’m pulling for them because I know their players well at this point) and if I had to bet on one of these teams overcoming a great opposing defense I know who I’m picking.
When Denver scores three goals in a home game the crowd wins free sandwiches. In the second half – when the competition ramped up I only got four free sandwiches (and only two since January).
My stomach and I will give UMass a 65-70% chance to win this game – Denver can’t pull this off unless they put in three goals of their own as far as I’m concerned, and that number has been a challenge. We’ll see…
Denver is well ahead of schedule just making the FF. UMass has been building to this season for the last three years (yup, Carvel has been directly responsible for UMass recruiting for three years – Imagine what he could have done by now at UNH with FOUR seasons of complete recruiting control) and they ARE a wagon on offense…
Of course, its a one-game format right now - so anything can happen - and the results wont tell us much about any of these teams except who plays best next weekend. PC/UMD has 2-1 snooze-fest written all over it...
Chuck, I can assure you Denver’s play (and I’ve watched all of their recent games, including the UND series in person) has reflected their shot totals. There is meaning there in how they've played - even if they've survived the bottom line. Their offense and overall puck-possession/chance-generation has been extremely challenged lately…
North Dakota completely out played them in both games of the QF series - but the Fighting Hawks simply cannot finish. They buzz, but they have limited offensive skill on their current roster and have a very hard time scoring. That was the biggest factor in the score staying down in that series…
UMass will not have the same problems if they get the same chances. There are three elite scoring teams in the country this season (> 3.50 GPG). UMass is one of them. Penn State and St. Cloud are the other. In a pair of games this season, St. Cloud dropped a four-spot on Denver each night. They got extremely fortunate when AIC knocked off the Huskies and now they’ll have to face St. Cloud East in the Frozen Four…
Denver has played great defensively much of the season – and especially lately. They forecheck well and they defend well in their own zone. Larsson (a Red Wings pick) has been very, very good in goal. Still, if Denver is going to win this match-up (and they certainly are capable) they need to be much better in creating offensive chances of their own and take the game to UMass on occasion.
North Dakota, Ohio State and UMD all play a pro-style game. They love to grind it out on the walls and in the cycle to create offensive chances. This plays right into Denver’s preferred style of defense. UMass is a high-flying college hockey team of old – they want to get up and go in transition. They’ll dangle and switch and get creative, forcing Denver to get their feet moving more in their offensive zone rather than just collapsing around the goal. They have scorers who can convert difficult chances – and have consistently.
It’s an entirely different style of game than what DU has faced recently. If they just want to forecheck and play defense they’ll have a really difficult time trying to win this game. They need to skate and push back on UMass with some of their own medicine to advance. They’re can accomplish this if they play up to their natural abilities (and if Pettersen is healthy - without him their chances drop dramatically, IMO) – but it has not necessarily been their approach against top competition for much of the season…
Also of note, UMass is the better scoring defense (slightly – 1.97 GAA to 1.98), much better on the PK and has posted three shutouts in their last four outings to match Denver's recent run. It’s the classic Watcher argument for building a defense – would you rather have great defenders or a bunch of guys who rarely have to play defense because they always have the puck…
I like both teams – they are both great and have earned the right to be here – but, I’ve seen Denver play 20-some times this season (I’m pulling for them because I know their players well at this point) and if I had to bet on one of these teams overcoming a great opposing defense I know who I’m picking.
When Denver scores three goals in a home game the crowd wins free sandwiches. In the second half – when the competition ramped up I only got four free sandwiches (and only two since January).
My stomach and I will give UMass a 65-70% chance to win this game – Denver can’t pull this off unless they put in three goals of their own as far as I’m concerned, and that number has been a challenge. We’ll see…
Denver is well ahead of schedule just making the FF. UMass has been building to this season for the last three years (yup, Carvel has been directly responsible for UMass recruiting for three years – Imagine what he could have done by now at UNH with FOUR seasons of complete recruiting control) and they ARE a wagon on offense…
Of course, its a one-game format right now - so anything can happen - and the results wont tell us much about any of these teams except who plays best next weekend. PC/UMD has 2-1 snooze-fest written all over it...
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