Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes early

[bronconick]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

She's fading because her campaign has been based on Trump stepping on his wang so far. Until yesterday, he'd been relatively quiet for a while.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Johnson recently lost the entire "liberal" wing of the libertarian-leaning voters by coming out in favor of federally enforced immunization requirements. If they have a single issue, that's it*. It's getting a lot of coverage in those places where the hippies congregate online, and means that Hillary will pick up 4% that Johnson is losing.

*I mean besides the pot, of course.

About the libertarians somewhat on point to your comment. I know some people, including an in-law and one of my best friends from grad school who truly believe that libertarian BS! For example, my friend really thinks legalizing hard drugs and allowing big pharma to manufacture them is going to be a good thing. Because clearly making drugs cheaper, more available, and no longer criminal is the solution to the problem of drug addiction. The guy is brilliant otherwise but he's a true believer.

Where I think your observation plays in is that most people making up Johnson's support have no clue what he actually stands for. Once they start finding that out with both himself and Jill Stein its like "oh - THAT'S what I was going to vote for". So when he's hitting 9% in polls part of it is people who will drift back to major party candidates and part of it are people who just won't end up voting. Having said that I can see him hitting 4-5% and Stein hitting 2% which would be a lot or 3rd party candidates not named "Perot".

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Johnson recently lost the entire "liberal" wing of the libertarian-leaning voters by coming out in favor of federally enforced immunization requirements. If they have a single issue, that's it*. It's getting a lot of coverage in those places where the hippies congregate online, and means that Hillary will pick up 4% that Johnson is losing.

*I mean besides the pot, of course.

They used to be big on legalizin' whorin', too. Remember COYOTE? But somewhere along the line the Libertarians were invaded by creepy backwoods types who oppose government because "our liberty comes from God," which is shorthand for out of the wallet but into the bedroom. The Libertarians haven't been libertarian for at least a decade.

[SJHovey]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

She's fading because her campaign has been based on Trump stepping on his wang so far. Until yesterday, he'd been relatively quiet for a while.

If after the convention Trump had simply gone back to New York and not been heard from until after the election, he'd have had a decent shot at winning.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Yeah the problem with 538 is that it uses the national polls to figure out trends...well if we all acknowledge that the national polls are skewing a bit 538 is going to end up skewed as well. If Drumpf isnt gaining any voters than a lot of this worrying is much ado about nothing. If he starts going up, then it is time to worry but if he is staying flat then ultimately Clinton should be fine. If Dem support for her drops to the point that she polls at less than 39% I will quit the board. (women and Blacks alone should get her to that point)

Normally I would worry but the fact is outside the Palin Brigade the Right isnt taking any bullets for Drumpf and he has almost no set up infrastructure. He is spending all his time trying to win votes in Washington and Minnesota and ignoring that he is losing in states he actually has a shot at winning. (and needs to win to have any chance) Then, every time he finally "rights the ship" he does something stupid and more rats desert him. Even the people who support him, the people he trusts to speak for him to minorities either do something stupid (like the Blackface tweet about Hillary or Guiliani talking about how Obama caused the only terrorist attacks in this nation) or quit because he is a moron. (like the Latino one who just quit because Drumpf is going all in on his ridiculous policies) The shock value that his Breitbart guys bring last a week then the numbers tank again because there is no there there.

It all comes to a head at the debates and everyone knows it. When all he has is catchphrases he will get called to the mat and lose epicly. (the media wont ignore it just for hopes of a tight race) Clinton isnt the Clown Show she actually has things to say. He has nothing cause he is nothing.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

If after the convention Trump had simply gone back to New York and not been heard from until after the election, he'd have had a decent shot at winning.

Agreed.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

About the libertarians somewhat on point to your comment. I know some people, including an in-law and one of my best friends from grad school who truly believe that libertarian BS! For example, my friend really thinks legalizing hard drugs and allowing big pharma to manufacture them is going to be a good thing. Because clearly making drugs cheaper, more available, and no longer criminal is the solution to the problem of drug addiction. The guy is brilliant otherwise but he's a true believer.

Where I think your observation plays in is that most people making up Johnson's support have no clue what he actually stands for. Once they start finding that out with both himself and Jill Stein its like "oh - THAT'S what I was going to vote for". So when he's hitting 9% in polls part of it is people who will drift back to major party candidates and part of it are people who just won't end up voting. Having said that I can see him hitting 4-5% and Stein hitting 2% which would be a lot or 3rd party candidates not named "Perot".

Actually, when it comes to the drugs, perhaps you should consider why we have the 21st amendment. It's because prohibition doesn't work. Hemp products were made illegal in order to prop up DuPont, Hearst, and pharmaceuticals. Cannabis has been proven to cure illnesses. The coca plant is a remedy for high altitude sickness. Hemp is a very strong product useful for practical everyday purposes. And yet, they're only available on the black market...

As for the whole addiction part, what about alcohol or tobacco, which are a heck of a lot more addictive? Yet you aren't prohibiting those? Or should we bring back the 18th amendment?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Johnson recently lost the entire "liberal" wing of the libertarian-leaning voters by coming out in favor of federally enforced immunization requirements. If they have a single issue, that's it*. It's getting a lot of coverage in those places where the hippies congregate online, and means that Hillary will pick up 4% that Johnson is losing.

*I mean besides the pot, of course.

Don't you think Hillary backs immunization requirements, too? Protecting herd immunity sounds like something straight outta It Takes a Village.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Don't you think Hillary backs immunization requirements, too? Protecting herd immunity sounds like something straight outta It Takes a Village.

Of course, when you shove so many vaccinations in a person that they become autistic... not to mention the carriers of the illnesses are the vaccinated ones in the Disney cases we saw a while back...

Wow, do I love holding water for no one.

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Sometimes it is Best to Just Not Talk

Sooooo...when she wasnt working for Drumpf she wanted his taxes repeated, now she doesnt. She blames it on an audit being done, the audit is over with. Then she rambles on about how taxes arent important cause it doesnt create jobs and Obamacare sucks. That is one great campaign leader you have there Donald!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Of course, when you shove so many vaccinations in a person that they become autistic... not to mention the carriers of the illnesses are the vaccinated ones in the Disney cases we saw a while back...

Wow, do I love holding water for no one.

Because nothing says "independent thinker" like repeating talking points from Alex Jones day and night.

[joecct]

The debates arent there to sway the Drumpfers to vote Hillary, it is to sway everyone else not to vote for him. If she owns him the Palin Brigade will be the only ones voting for him and that wont be enough even with her mediocre favorability.

What if it's vice versa and Hill folds under pressure?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Trouble in Hateland.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

What if it's vice versa and Hill folds under pressure?

I really, really doubt that's going to happen. I assume that no matter what actually happens during the debates each side will see their candidate trouncing the other.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 Part XVII: If debates are great theater, I think this one closes e

Yeah the problem with 538 is that it uses the national polls to figure out trends...well if we all acknowledge that the national polls are skewing a bit 538 is going to end up skewed as well. If Drumpf isnt gaining any voters than a lot of this worrying is much ado about nothing. If he starts going up, then it is time to worry but if he is staying flat then ultimately Clinton should be fine. If Dem support for her drops to the point that she polls at less than 39% I will quit the board. (women and Blacks alone should get her to that point)

Normally I would worry but the fact is outside the Palin Brigade the Right isnt taking any bullets for Drumpf and he has almost no set up infrastructure. He is spending all his time trying to win votes in Washington and Minnesota and ignoring that he is losing in states he actually has a shot at winning. (and needs to win to have any chance) Then, every time he finally "rights the ship" he does something stupid and more rats desert him. Even the people who support him, the people he trusts to speak for him to minorities either do something stupid (like the Blackface tweet about Hillary or Guiliani talking about how Obama caused the only terrorist attacks in this nation) or quit because he is a moron. (like the Latino one who just quit because Drumpf is going all in on his ridiculous policies) The shock value that his Breitbart guys bring last a week then the numbers tank again because there is no there there.

It all comes to a head at the debates and everyone knows it. When all he has is catchphrases he will get called to the mat and lose epicly. (the media wont ignore it just for hopes of a tight race) Clinton isnt the Clown Show she actually has things to say. He has nothing cause he is nothing.

Handy - the voice of reason??? Dead on accurate assessment.

Amusing to me how many people think Trump is going to miraculously morph into a conventional Republican a la John Kasich, unite the middle and the fringe lunatic right in a matter of two months time, and pivot his way to victory. As Charlie Pierce correctly points out in this piece eviscerating the press over the Mexico trip - immigration speech coverage, the voters have figured out Trump's campaign is all a big con even if the national media has yet to come to grips with that.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics...-mexico-media/