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The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

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  • #61
    Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
    I've got a prediction that the final standings will look like this:

    Ferris State - 48pts
    Minnesota State - 34pts
    Bowling Green - 32pts
    Alaska-Anchorage - 30pts
    Northern Michigan - 28pts
    Lake Superior - 28pts
    Bemidji State - 28pts
    Alaska - 25pts (wins the tiebreak on wins, 11-9)
    Michigan Tech - 25pts
    Alabama-Huntsville - 2pts

    I want to buff it up a little bit, but this is based on using KRACH as a forward predictor — I know that's not the intent; don't make me beat you with my thermodynamics textbook — and using a little bit of sense about home/away, strength, etc. The really sad news for Tech fans is that they get as high as sixth but end up losing out as they've got more games played. When it's ready, I'll publish it, and I plan on updating the analysis with updated KRACH results week-over-week. I've done the heavy lifting now.

    Don't feel too bad, Tech fans. You could be rooting for UAH this year.

    GFM
    No more invites to Winter Carnival if this comes true.

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    • #62
      Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

      You people are insane. UAH either needs to have some success in special teams (like a SHG) and play a game even goal-wise at 5x5 (which requires our goalies going .940% or higher) to pull out a game. The BG game is essentially that: a PPG (Marooney), a SHG (Salhany), shutting the Falcons down on the PK, and a good night for Guerriero (38-of-41). That's our formula. We've scored four goals once (@BG), three goals once (v St. Cloud), two goals four times (@Northeastern, v Ferris, @ Notre Dame, @ Wisconsin), one goal nine times, and none ten times. Your chances are very good at winning if you score three goals. UAH is routinely giving up 40SOG (14 of 24 games), and that means that one of our guys has to stand on his head to keep it close.

      Now someone is going to accuse me of sandbagging their team with false hopes. Again, you people are insane. Your coaches and your player leadership can read a box score just as well as I can. Now, if you've got sawdust in your hands 35:00 into your Saturday night game in Huntsville because SOG are even, well, that's on you. I think that UAH can beat any team left on its schedule. I'm just fairly convinced that them beating any of them is unlikely. I will watch every game and root for them because that's what a fan does. But I've had to manage expectations this season so I wouldn't feel like I was going insane.

      GFM
      Geof F. Morris
      UAH BSE MAE 2002
      UAHHockey.com

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

        I think that 4th place is achievable for UAA as well. I ran the numbers (informally and just in my head) for the rest of the season using using KRACH as a starting point as well. I didn't get to 30 points but instead 29. I didn't have BG at 48 but instead 45 points. Obviously, projecting is full of "wow-what-a-stupid-prediction-that-was" potential but (as i said earlier); I hope the team is tracking the standings. Knowing they need 13 (or 14) points out their next 24 possible will give them a solid (doable) short term goal. After this weekend by all standards the boys should only need 9 (or 10) points out of their last 10 games to grab a home-ice spot barring anyone currently below them going on some unexpected massive winning streak.

        For UAA the season is becoming one in which they win as a team and lose as a team. It's a bit surprising how well they've done considering that that the bottom two lines have been a complete mish-mash combination of forwards and extra-defenseman. One of my favorite players on the squad is defenseman Chris Williams (who I think is grossly underrated) and he skated at center on the 4th line last weekend while defenseman Blake Leask (also underrated in my mind) skated on the 1st line on the wing. I know Thomas is maximizing the top-talent on the squad by giving them extra shifts on the 3rd and 4th lines so that stabilizes things a bit but those guys cant always be on the ice and there sure seems to have been some quality "filling-in" from the blueline up front.

        Still though, 10 points against NMU on the road, at Lake St., BG at the sully, then @ league leading Ferris followed by a trip to the craphole on a river up north to face their hated rivals won't be an easy task.

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

          Originally posted by uaafanblog View Post
          I think that 4th place is achievable for UAA as well. I ran the numbers (informally and just in my head) for the rest of the season using using KRACH as a starting point as well. I didn't get to 30 points but instead 29. I didn't have BG at 48 but instead 45 points. Obviously, projecting is full of "wow-what-a-stupid-prediction-that-was" potential but (as i said earlier); I hope the team is tracking the standings. Knowing they need 13 (or 14) points out their next 24 possible will give them a solid (doable) short term goal. After this weekend by all standards the boys should only need 9 (or 10) points out of their last 10 games to grab a home-ice spot barring anyone currently below them going on some unexpected massive winning streak.

          For UAA the season is becoming one in which they win as a team and lose as a team. It's a bit surprising how well they've done considering that that the bottom two lines have been a complete mish-mash combination of forwards and extra-defenseman. One of my favorite players on the squad is defenseman Chris Williams (who I think is grossly underrated) and he skated at center on the 4th line last weekend while defenseman Blake Leask (also underrated in my mind) skated on the 1st line on the wing. I know Thomas is maximizing the top-talent on the squad by giving them extra shifts on the 3rd and 4th lines so that stabilizes things a bit but those guys cant always be on the ice and there sure seems to have been some quality "filling-in" from the blueline up front.

          Still though, 10 points against NMU on the road, at Lake St., BG at the sully, then @ league leading Ferris followed by a trip to the craphole on a river up north to face their hated rivals won't be an easy task.
          We really like Willy as well, I think he will be a fan favorite. He is solid and he doesn't take any crap!
          Originally Posted by aparch
          I love the "UA_" comment. When I see it, I think of re-runs of Match Game, and Gene Rayburn going "U, A, Blank... UA blank"

          From ADN:

          "According to NCAA, the (UAF) hockey team used ineligible players in every game played from the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season. Over that span, the wins and ties will all become losses. 4 wins and 2 ties came against rival UAA".

          UAF is 56-86-12 vs. UAA.

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

            [QUOTE=uaafanblog;5856622

            Still though, 10 points against NMU on the road, at Lake St., BG at the sully, then @ league leading Ferris followed by a trip to the craphole on a river up north to face their hated rivals won't be an easy task.[/QUOTE]

            I think that's is very doable. Lake st has injuries, including one of the goalies who is very good, BG at home you could sweep, though given how you got outplayed by Mankato, maybe not, and the Ferris series will be tough to get points.
            So that would be, 10-12 points being optimistic against Ferris and splitting with NMU.
            Looking ahead BG has a pretty easy schedule with a lot of home games, and NMU has a number of games in hand over pretty much everyone. Bemidji has been playing much better, but has a tough schedule going forward.

            Oh, and I am sick to death of the national media ignoring the WCHA like it was yesterday's half eaten hamburger.
            Last edited by manurespreader; 01-16-2014, 09:17 AM.
            MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

            It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

              Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
              I think that's is very doable. Lake st has injuries, including one of the goalies who is very good, BG at home you could sweep, though given how you got outplayed by Mankato, maybe not, and the Ferris series will be tough to get points.
              So that would be, 10-12 points being optimistic against Ferris and splitting with NMU.
              Looking ahead BG has a pretty easy schedule with a lot of home games, and NMU has a number of games in hand over pretty much everyone. Bemidji has been playing much better, but has a tough schedule going forward.

              Oh, and I am sick to death of the national media ignoring the WCHA like it was yesterday's half eaten hamburger.
              And why would the national media pay much attention? Besides Ferris, there are no teams more than 3 games over .500
              "The use of common sense and logic will not be tolerated and may result in fine and/or suspension."- Western Professional Hockey League By-laws. 1999-2000.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by davyd83 View Post
                And why would the national media pay much attention?0
                A great day to be a WCHA fan.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                  Originally posted by davyd83 View Post
                  And why would the national media pay much attention? Besides Ferris, there are no teams more than 3 games over .500
                  By that assessment, why would they pay attention to NCHC? Besides SCSU, no one is more than 4 games over .500...
                  Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                  Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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                  • #69
                    Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                    By that assessment, why would they pay attention to NCHC? Besides SCSU, no one is more than 4 games over .500...
                    For the same reason ESPN touches itself everytime they see a NY Jets logo. The mainstream media is filled with idiots.
                    Having a clear conscience just means you have a bad memory or you had a boring weekend.

                    RIP - Kirby

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by davyd83 View Post
                      And why would the national media pay much attention? Besides Ferris, there are no teams more than 3 games over .500
                      Why wouldn't Ferris be a good story? Oh right, this was the same Ferris that was largely ignored even with their National Championship appearence; BC got all the love.
                      “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

                      Live Radio from 100.3

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                        I think that's is very doable. Lake st has injuries, including one of the goalies who is very good, BG at home you could sweep, though given how you got outplayed by Mankato, maybe not, and the Ferris series will be tough to get points.
                        So that would be, 10-12 points being optimistic against Ferris and splitting with NMU.
                        Looking ahead BG has a pretty easy schedule with a lot of home games, and NMU has a number of games in hand over pretty much everyone. Bemidji has been playing much better, but has a tough schedule going forward.

                        Oh, and I am sick to death of the national media ignoring the WCHA like it was yesterday's half eaten hamburger.
                        We got outplayed by Makato because they had traveled and gotten into Anchorage less then 24 hours before game time. Don't take too much stock into it.
                        U-A-A!!!Go!Go!GreenandGold!
                        Applejack Tells You How UAA Is Doing...
                        I spell Failure with UAF

                        Originally posted by UAFIceAngel
                        But let's be real...There are 40 some other teams and only two alaskan teams...the day one of us wins something big will be the day I transfer to UAA
                        Originally posted by Doyle Woody
                        Best sign by a visting Seawolf fan Friday went to a young man who held up a piece of white poster board that read: "YOU CAN'T SPELL FAILURE WITHOUT UAF."

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                        • #72
                          Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                          Originally posted by aparch View Post
                          Why wouldn't Ferris be a good story? Oh right, this was the same Ferris that was largely ignored even with their National Championship appearence; BC got all the love.
                          Largely ignored with the National Championship appearance? I recall ESPN drooling all over them. There were articles not only on the college hockey websites, but on many national sites and papers as well. I've seen articles on them this season as well, even outside the weekly WCHA portions of USCHO and CHN. The bottom line is that we are the small schools from the small markets. No one is jumping up and down to write about us unless something extraordinary happens. 5-13-3 vs the Big 10, 0-10-0 vs Hockey East and 4-11-5 vs the NCHC don't scream, "Write about me," unless they are writing about how lousy our record is against those conferences. Six of the eight NCHC teams have better attendance than the top draw in the WCHA. Only two WCHA teams draw over 3000 per game. Numbers like that don't generate a lot of clicks or articles or air time outside their own markets.
                          Last edited by davyd83; 01-16-2014, 11:50 AM.
                          "The use of common sense and logic will not be tolerated and may result in fine and/or suspension."- Western Professional Hockey League By-laws. 1999-2000.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Jimjamesak View Post
                            We got outplayed by Makato because they had traveled and gotten into Anchorage less then 24 hours before game time. Don't take too much stock into it.
                            You got outplayed and swept them? How does that happen?
                            “We offer no apology for our location at 64 51’21’’ north latitude. We are building for the future and we are confident that well directed effort and education are the forces which make progress possible”

                            —UA President Charles E. Bunnell, 1925

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                            • #74
                              Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                              Originally posted by davyd83 View Post
                              Largely ignored with the National Championship appearance? I recall ESPN drooling all over them. There were articles not only on the college hockey websites, but on many national sites and papers as well. I've seen articles on them this season as well, even outside the weekly WCHA portions of USCHO and CHN. The bottom line is that we are the small schools from the small markets. No one is jumping up and down to write about us unless something extraordinary happens. 5-13-3 vs the Big 10, 0-10-0 vs Hockey East and 4-11-5 vs the NCHC don't scream, "Write about me," unless they are writing about how lousy our record is against those conferences. Six of the eight NCHC teams have better attendance than the top draw in the WCHA. Only two WCHA teams draw over 3000 per game. Numbers like that don't generate a lot of clicks or articles or air time outside their own markets.
                              ok, well said. I'm curious how much press Huntsville gets and how many fans actually show up. I would be surprised if Tech isn't averaging over 3000 at home and I would assume Bemidji is also.
                              MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

                              It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                                Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                                ok, well said. I'm curious how much press Huntsville gets and how many fans actually show up. I would be surprised if Tech isn't averaging over 3000 at home and I would assume Bemidji is also.
                                MTU is averaging 2851 through 9 home games.
                                Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                                Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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