Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition
After Fri 2/15:
BC 1 @ MC 2 OT,
BU 3 @ ME 3 OT,
UVM 2 @ NU 1,
UML 6 @ UMA 3
--- Home Lock - 37 (BC/UNH/BU/MC/PC) ---
--- In - 28 (ME) ---
MC 26 - 40 [1-9]
BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
UNH 24 - 38 [1-10]
PC 23 - 37 [1-10]
BU 22 - 38 [1-10]
UML 20 - 36 [1-10]
UVM 16 - 30 [1-10]
UMA 15 - 31 [1-10]
ME 14 - 28 [2-10]
NU 11 - 27 [2-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (BU/PC/UML) ---
--- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---
Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
MC - @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
BC - UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
UNH - @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
PC - MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
BU - @ME, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
UML - UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
UVM - @NU, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
UMA - @UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
ME - BU, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
NU - UVM, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU
Break up the Warriors!!!
With their home OT win over BC, Merrimack has completed the journey from the bottom half of the league to the top of the standings. After a 3-4-1 league start (with all seven points coming from the then-bottom of the league), the Warriors have figured something out and gone 9-2-1 in HE since.
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On the flip side of MC, BC started off 10-2-1 in HE, but - since the Beanpot doesn't count in league standings - has stumbled to 2-5 since. Nearly reciprocal results has the two squads nearly tied, with MC a point ahead.
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With UNH and PC idle, that brings us to another curiously sliding Boston squad, the BU Terriers. I detailed last weekend an unusual "3-goal" streak involving BU.
Well... Harvard scored four straight on Monday to take a 6-3 lead en route to a 7-4 final, then Maine trailed by two before ripping three straight on the PP before the BU equalizer for Friday's 3-3 result, so add two more to that skein.
Of more concern for the Terriers, it seemed that the toughest part of their schedule was going to be 2012 - with all six games against BC and UNH, and road trips to North Dakota for two and another at Denver. Although BU went 3-6 against those teams, with one win each against BC, UNH, and UND (BC and UNH were each national #1 at the time), they took care of business against everyone else and ended 2012 at 10-6. That seemed to bode well for the lighter-on-paper 2013 half of the BU season. Their 2013 so far? 3-6-2, with, staying on theme, three of those losses in a row. The result: BU was, at one point, hovering around 5th in the country and is now hovering around 5th in the league.
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UML's win has them gaining ground on everyone ahead of them but MC. UML picked up a pair on BC (lost), UNH (idle), and PC(idle). Only BU's late tie-salvaging goal kept the Terriers from joining that group.
With BU and UML (along with UMA and NU) having a game-in-hand on the field, that puts the Maxes of the top six teams within four points (40-36).
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UVM's win leapfrogs them over losing UMA into 7th.
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With the bottom teams losing potential for points, we finally get some motion in the positions being locked in.
NU's new max of 27 means that they could now pass either MC (26) or BC (25), but - since there is still an MC/BC game on tap - not both. They best they could hope for would be that either of the two would have only 27 points to tie. Since NU already loses both TBs 1-2-0, the only thing that could potentially save them for first would be a three-way tie with MC and BU at 27. At that point, NU would be a collective 4-2-0 (MC:1-2-0 + BU:3-0-0), by virtue of necessarily sweeping BU to get to 27 points. Merrimack would have to have tied BC to keep BC under 27 (at 26), which means they would have to lose to BU in their remaining game. That would put MC at 2-4-0 (NU:2-1-0 + BU:0-3-0) and BU at 3-3-0 (NU:0-3-0 + MC:3-0-0). So far, there's still a way for NU to get the 1st seed.
UNH and BC still have to play, with UNH winning, to leave both at 26... still OK for NU.
And then there's PC... and that's where it all falls apart for NU. PC has one more with MC and a pair with BC. Since MC is already tied in this setup, PC (23) has to win. There's no way to split four points between BC (26) and PC (25) that keeps both behind NU at 27. NU cannot be in first.
Sneaking up from the bottom half, and to be remembered for any remaining configurations from here out, is Vermont. All of UVM's games not against NU are pairs against top teams (BC, UNH, and BU). That's 12 points. For those teams to stay down, UVM must rise.
Similarly, once UML is done with UMA, their remaining seven games are all against each of the teams ahead of them, except UNH. Now we're talking 14 points. As noted, the top six are so tight that there just isn't a lot of wiggle room for teams at the bottom to move up, because the points at the top have to go somewhere.
When the various permutations are in, the best I can get NU is 2nd, where BC sucks up all the points from the other contenders and NU (3-0-0 + 1-2-0 + 2-1-0 = 6-3-0) wins a 4-way tie with BU (0-3-0 + 3-0-0 + 2-0-1 = 5-3-1), MC (2-1-0 + 0-3-0 + 1-2-0 or 1-1-1 = 3-6-0 or 3-5-1), and PC (1-2-0 + 0-2-1 + 2-1-0 or 1-1-1 = 3-5-1 or 2-5-2).
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In the same way, for Maine at 28, even though they hold - or would have to hold at their Max - the TBs with many of the top teams, the best I can get them is 2nd, TBs or not, behind either BC, PC, or UML due to schedule.
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UMA at 31, and everyone above them, could still be in first solo.
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Going the other way, even though the bottom two teams surprisingly each have the TB over league-leading MC, their maxes of 27(NU) and 28(ME) only have three spare points to keep both tied-or-above MC at 26. With their H2H pair dropping a collective four points off of those two Maxes once we have results, that means at least one must be behind MC and therefore MC cannot be 10th.
UMA's Max is only five ahead of MC and they also have six remaining points at risk against the other bottom two, but they can just take points against whichever team drops behind MC in a given scenario and stay ahead. So MC can be 9th, but not 10th.
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BC, at 25, can fall so low that no one is below them. However, that results in (at least) a three-way tie at the bottom with two of the three of NU, ME, and UMA.
The most interesting of those is where BC, NU, and ME all have 25 and each has a .500 record in the group (3-3-0, 2-2-2, 2-2-2). In that case, however, BC would pull ahead on the 2nd TB, because the other two have so many ties included in their point totals (counting banked ties is a quick way of extrapolating that they will be behind in wins without having to count them: 1-1-0 beats 0-0-2 on the 2nd TB.)
UMA has only the one tie so far (meaning they could catch BC in wins), but in a tie with BC and ME at 25 would lose both TBs individually and so would end up at the bottom of that round-robin break (and therefore below BC) before getting to the 2nd TB, rendering the "wins" factor moot. With NU and UMA, BC would be 2-1-0 against both, and so would not be in 10th after that break either.
If there were one more point available to get both NU and UMA clear at 26 to leave ME in a H2H tie w/ BC at 25 (which ME would take 2-1-0), BC would still be vulnerable to 10th. Since there isn't, and none of the 3-way TBs break against them (there's too much in flux for me to explore what a ...six-way tie would do, but I sense it's the same), the simplest way to see the lowest BC can currently fall is to have one team below 25, the rest above and BC in 9th without TBs.
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UNH at 24 could still be below that bottom troika and end up 10th, and so could everyone below them.
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Home Lock stays at 37, but now PC is in the mix because you can get there with MC, UNH, BU and either BC or PC.
UML can only get to 36 and, in so doing, would tear down the Maxes of four other top teams to get there. Because of their schedule, I don't expect UML to be involved in this benchmark until perhaps very close to the end, if at all.
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BU's tie and UML's win inject just enough points into the middle of the standings that PC, BU, UML have to end up at least at 25/24/24 in some order. That puts 4th place at a minimum of 25, so we'll move the Home Eligible line there.
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With Maine's current 9th highest Max at 28, that's the total to beat to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, so that's the In line.
Normally, if you can't reach the banked points of the current 8th (UMA's 15), you're out. However, given the interplay left between the bottom three, the lowest that I can make 8th is 17, so that's where we'll set the Out line.
After Fri 2/15:
BC 1 @ MC 2 OT,
BU 3 @ ME 3 OT,
UVM 2 @ NU 1,
UML 6 @ UMA 3
--- Home Lock - 37 (BC/UNH/BU/MC/PC) ---
--- In - 28 (ME) ---
MC 26 - 40 [1-9]
BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
UNH 24 - 38 [1-10]
PC 23 - 37 [1-10]
BU 22 - 38 [1-10]
UML 20 - 36 [1-10]
UVM 16 - 30 [1-10]
UMA 15 - 31 [1-10]
ME 14 - 28 [2-10]
NU 11 - 27 [2-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (BU/PC/UML) ---
--- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---
Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
MC - @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
BC - UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
UNH - @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
PC - MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
BU - @ME, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
UML - UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
UVM - @NU, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
UMA - @UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
ME - BU, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
NU - UVM, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU
Break up the Warriors!!!
With their home OT win over BC, Merrimack has completed the journey from the bottom half of the league to the top of the standings. After a 3-4-1 league start (with all seven points coming from the then-bottom of the league), the Warriors have figured something out and gone 9-2-1 in HE since.
---
On the flip side of MC, BC started off 10-2-1 in HE, but - since the Beanpot doesn't count in league standings - has stumbled to 2-5 since. Nearly reciprocal results has the two squads nearly tied, with MC a point ahead.
---
With UNH and PC idle, that brings us to another curiously sliding Boston squad, the BU Terriers. I detailed last weekend an unusual "3-goal" streak involving BU.
That's seven of the ten games with three-goal leads or responses - or both. In fact, seven 3-plus-goal leads and three 3-plus-goal answers in ten games gives about even odds that you'll see one or the other.
Of more concern for the Terriers, it seemed that the toughest part of their schedule was going to be 2012 - with all six games against BC and UNH, and road trips to North Dakota for two and another at Denver. Although BU went 3-6 against those teams, with one win each against BC, UNH, and UND (BC and UNH were each national #1 at the time), they took care of business against everyone else and ended 2012 at 10-6. That seemed to bode well for the lighter-on-paper 2013 half of the BU season. Their 2013 so far? 3-6-2, with, staying on theme, three of those losses in a row. The result: BU was, at one point, hovering around 5th in the country and is now hovering around 5th in the league.
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UML's win has them gaining ground on everyone ahead of them but MC. UML picked up a pair on BC (lost), UNH (idle), and PC(idle). Only BU's late tie-salvaging goal kept the Terriers from joining that group.
With BU and UML (along with UMA and NU) having a game-in-hand on the field, that puts the Maxes of the top six teams within four points (40-36).
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UVM's win leapfrogs them over losing UMA into 7th.
---
With the bottom teams losing potential for points, we finally get some motion in the positions being locked in.
NU's new max of 27 means that they could now pass either MC (26) or BC (25), but - since there is still an MC/BC game on tap - not both. They best they could hope for would be that either of the two would have only 27 points to tie. Since NU already loses both TBs 1-2-0, the only thing that could potentially save them for first would be a three-way tie with MC and BU at 27. At that point, NU would be a collective 4-2-0 (MC:1-2-0 + BU:3-0-0), by virtue of necessarily sweeping BU to get to 27 points. Merrimack would have to have tied BC to keep BC under 27 (at 26), which means they would have to lose to BU in their remaining game. That would put MC at 2-4-0 (NU:2-1-0 + BU:0-3-0) and BU at 3-3-0 (NU:0-3-0 + MC:3-0-0). So far, there's still a way for NU to get the 1st seed.
UNH and BC still have to play, with UNH winning, to leave both at 26... still OK for NU.
And then there's PC... and that's where it all falls apart for NU. PC has one more with MC and a pair with BC. Since MC is already tied in this setup, PC (23) has to win. There's no way to split four points between BC (26) and PC (25) that keeps both behind NU at 27. NU cannot be in first.
Sneaking up from the bottom half, and to be remembered for any remaining configurations from here out, is Vermont. All of UVM's games not against NU are pairs against top teams (BC, UNH, and BU). That's 12 points. For those teams to stay down, UVM must rise.
Similarly, once UML is done with UMA, their remaining seven games are all against each of the teams ahead of them, except UNH. Now we're talking 14 points. As noted, the top six are so tight that there just isn't a lot of wiggle room for teams at the bottom to move up, because the points at the top have to go somewhere.
When the various permutations are in, the best I can get NU is 2nd, where BC sucks up all the points from the other contenders and NU (3-0-0 + 1-2-0 + 2-1-0 = 6-3-0) wins a 4-way tie with BU (0-3-0 + 3-0-0 + 2-0-1 = 5-3-1), MC (2-1-0 + 0-3-0 + 1-2-0 or 1-1-1 = 3-6-0 or 3-5-1), and PC (1-2-0 + 0-2-1 + 2-1-0 or 1-1-1 = 3-5-1 or 2-5-2).
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In the same way, for Maine at 28, even though they hold - or would have to hold at their Max - the TBs with many of the top teams, the best I can get them is 2nd, TBs or not, behind either BC, PC, or UML due to schedule.
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UMA at 31, and everyone above them, could still be in first solo.
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Going the other way, even though the bottom two teams surprisingly each have the TB over league-leading MC, their maxes of 27(NU) and 28(ME) only have three spare points to keep both tied-or-above MC at 26. With their H2H pair dropping a collective four points off of those two Maxes once we have results, that means at least one must be behind MC and therefore MC cannot be 10th.
UMA's Max is only five ahead of MC and they also have six remaining points at risk against the other bottom two, but they can just take points against whichever team drops behind MC in a given scenario and stay ahead. So MC can be 9th, but not 10th.
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BC, at 25, can fall so low that no one is below them. However, that results in (at least) a three-way tie at the bottom with two of the three of NU, ME, and UMA.
The most interesting of those is where BC, NU, and ME all have 25 and each has a .500 record in the group (3-3-0, 2-2-2, 2-2-2). In that case, however, BC would pull ahead on the 2nd TB, because the other two have so many ties included in their point totals (counting banked ties is a quick way of extrapolating that they will be behind in wins without having to count them: 1-1-0 beats 0-0-2 on the 2nd TB.)
UMA has only the one tie so far (meaning they could catch BC in wins), but in a tie with BC and ME at 25 would lose both TBs individually and so would end up at the bottom of that round-robin break (and therefore below BC) before getting to the 2nd TB, rendering the "wins" factor moot. With NU and UMA, BC would be 2-1-0 against both, and so would not be in 10th after that break either.
If there were one more point available to get both NU and UMA clear at 26 to leave ME in a H2H tie w/ BC at 25 (which ME would take 2-1-0), BC would still be vulnerable to 10th. Since there isn't, and none of the 3-way TBs break against them (there's too much in flux for me to explore what a ...six-way tie would do, but I sense it's the same), the simplest way to see the lowest BC can currently fall is to have one team below 25, the rest above and BC in 9th without TBs.
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UNH at 24 could still be below that bottom troika and end up 10th, and so could everyone below them.
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Home Lock stays at 37, but now PC is in the mix because you can get there with MC, UNH, BU and either BC or PC.
UML can only get to 36 and, in so doing, would tear down the Maxes of four other top teams to get there. Because of their schedule, I don't expect UML to be involved in this benchmark until perhaps very close to the end, if at all.
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BU's tie and UML's win inject just enough points into the middle of the standings that PC, BU, UML have to end up at least at 25/24/24 in some order. That puts 4th place at a minimum of 25, so we'll move the Home Eligible line there.
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With Maine's current 9th highest Max at 28, that's the total to beat to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, so that's the In line.
Normally, if you can't reach the banked points of the current 8th (UMA's 15), you're out. However, given the interplay left between the bottom three, the lowest that I can make 8th is 17, so that's where we'll set the Out line.
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