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Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

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  • #16
    Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

    After Fri 2/15:
    BC 1 @ MC 2 OT,
    BU 3 @ ME 3 OT,
    UVM 2 @ NU 1,
    UML 6 @ UMA 3

    --- Home Lock - 37 (BC/UNH/BU/MC/PC) ---
    --- In - 28 (ME) ---
    MC 26 - 40 [1-9]
    BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
    UNH 24 - 38 [1-10]
    PC 23 - 37 [1-10]
    BU 22 - 38 [1-10]
    UML 20 - 36 [1-10]
    UVM 16 - 30 [1-10]
    UMA 15 - 31 [1-10]
    ME 14 - 28 [2-10]
    NU 11 - 27 [2-10]
    --- Home Eligible - 25 (BU/PC/UML) ---
    --- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

    Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
    MC - @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
    BC - UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
    UNH - @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
    PC - MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
    BU - @ME, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
    UML - UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
    UVM - @NU, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
    UMA - @UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
    ME - BU, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
    NU - UVM, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU


    Break up the Warriors!!!

    With their home OT win over BC, Merrimack has completed the journey from the bottom half of the league to the top of the standings. After a 3-4-1 league start (with all seven points coming from the then-bottom of the league), the Warriors have figured something out and gone 9-2-1 in HE since.

    ---
    On the flip side of MC, BC started off 10-2-1 in HE, but - since the Beanpot doesn't count in league standings - has stumbled to 2-5 since. Nearly reciprocal results has the two squads nearly tied, with MC a point ahead.

    ---
    With UNH and PC idle, that brings us to another curiously sliding Boston squad, the BU Terriers. I detailed last weekend an unusual "3-goal" streak involving BU.
    That's seven of the ten games with three-goal leads or responses - or both. In fact, seven 3-plus-goal leads and three 3-plus-goal answers in ten games gives about even odds that you'll see one or the other.
    Well... Harvard scored four straight on Monday to take a 6-3 lead en route to a 7-4 final, then Maine trailed by two before ripping three straight on the PP before the BU equalizer for Friday's 3-3 result, so add two more to that skein.

    Of more concern for the Terriers, it seemed that the toughest part of their schedule was going to be 2012 - with all six games against BC and UNH, and road trips to North Dakota for two and another at Denver. Although BU went 3-6 against those teams, with one win each against BC, UNH, and UND (BC and UNH were each national #1 at the time), they took care of business against everyone else and ended 2012 at 10-6. That seemed to bode well for the lighter-on-paper 2013 half of the BU season. Their 2013 so far? 3-6-2, with, staying on theme, three of those losses in a row. The result: BU was, at one point, hovering around 5th in the country and is now hovering around 5th in the league.

    ---
    UML's win has them gaining ground on everyone ahead of them but MC. UML picked up a pair on BC (lost), UNH (idle), and PC(idle). Only BU's late tie-salvaging goal kept the Terriers from joining that group.

    With BU and UML (along with UMA and NU) having a game-in-hand on the field, that puts the Maxes of the top six teams within four points (40-36).

    ---
    UVM's win leapfrogs them over losing UMA into 7th.

    ---
    With the bottom teams losing potential for points, we finally get some motion in the positions being locked in.

    NU's new max of 27 means that they could now pass either MC (26) or BC (25), but - since there is still an MC/BC game on tap - not both. They best they could hope for would be that either of the two would have only 27 points to tie. Since NU already loses both TBs 1-2-0, the only thing that could potentially save them for first would be a three-way tie with MC and BU at 27. At that point, NU would be a collective 4-2-0 (MC:1-2-0 + BU:3-0-0), by virtue of necessarily sweeping BU to get to 27 points. Merrimack would have to have tied BC to keep BC under 27 (at 26), which means they would have to lose to BU in their remaining game. That would put MC at 2-4-0 (NU:2-1-0 + BU:0-3-0) and BU at 3-3-0 (NU:0-3-0 + MC:3-0-0). So far, there's still a way for NU to get the 1st seed.

    UNH and BC still have to play, with UNH winning, to leave both at 26... still OK for NU.

    And then there's PC... and that's where it all falls apart for NU. PC has one more with MC and a pair with BC. Since MC is already tied in this setup, PC (23) has to win. There's no way to split four points between BC (26) and PC (25) that keeps both behind NU at 27. NU cannot be in first.

    Sneaking up from the bottom half, and to be remembered for any remaining configurations from here out, is Vermont. All of UVM's games not against NU are pairs against top teams (BC, UNH, and BU). That's 12 points. For those teams to stay down, UVM must rise.

    Similarly, once UML is done with UMA, their remaining seven games are all against each of the teams ahead of them, except UNH. Now we're talking 14 points. As noted, the top six are so tight that there just isn't a lot of wiggle room for teams at the bottom to move up, because the points at the top have to go somewhere.

    When the various permutations are in, the best I can get NU is 2nd, where BC sucks up all the points from the other contenders and NU (3-0-0 + 1-2-0 + 2-1-0 = 6-3-0) wins a 4-way tie with BU (0-3-0 + 3-0-0 + 2-0-1 = 5-3-1), MC (2-1-0 + 0-3-0 + 1-2-0 or 1-1-1 = 3-6-0 or 3-5-1), and PC (1-2-0 + 0-2-1 + 2-1-0 or 1-1-1 = 3-5-1 or 2-5-2).

    ---
    In the same way, for Maine at 28, even though they hold - or would have to hold at their Max - the TBs with many of the top teams, the best I can get them is 2nd, TBs or not, behind either BC, PC, or UML due to schedule.

    ---
    UMA at 31, and everyone above them, could still be in first solo.

    ---
    Going the other way, even though the bottom two teams surprisingly each have the TB over league-leading MC, their maxes of 27(NU) and 28(ME) only have three spare points to keep both tied-or-above MC at 26. With their H2H pair dropping a collective four points off of those two Maxes once we have results, that means at least one must be behind MC and therefore MC cannot be 10th.

    UMA's Max is only five ahead of MC and they also have six remaining points at risk against the other bottom two, but they can just take points against whichever team drops behind MC in a given scenario and stay ahead. So MC can be 9th, but not 10th.

    ---
    BC, at 25, can fall so low that no one is below them. However, that results in (at least) a three-way tie at the bottom with two of the three of NU, ME, and UMA.

    The most interesting of those is where BC, NU, and ME all have 25 and each has a .500 record in the group (3-3-0, 2-2-2, 2-2-2). In that case, however, BC would pull ahead on the 2nd TB, because the other two have so many ties included in their point totals (counting banked ties is a quick way of extrapolating that they will be behind in wins without having to count them: 1-1-0 beats 0-0-2 on the 2nd TB.)

    UMA has only the one tie so far (meaning they could catch BC in wins), but in a tie with BC and ME at 25 would lose both TBs individually and so would end up at the bottom of that round-robin break (and therefore below BC) before getting to the 2nd TB, rendering the "wins" factor moot. With NU and UMA, BC would be 2-1-0 against both, and so would not be in 10th after that break either.

    If there were one more point available to get both NU and UMA clear at 26 to leave ME in a H2H tie w/ BC at 25 (which ME would take 2-1-0), BC would still be vulnerable to 10th. Since there isn't, and none of the 3-way TBs break against them (there's too much in flux for me to explore what a ...six-way tie would do, but I sense it's the same), the simplest way to see the lowest BC can currently fall is to have one team below 25, the rest above and BC in 9th without TBs.

    ---
    UNH at 24 could still be below that bottom troika and end up 10th, and so could everyone below them.

    ---
    Home Lock stays at 37, but now PC is in the mix because you can get there with MC, UNH, BU and either BC or PC.

    UML can only get to 36 and, in so doing, would tear down the Maxes of four other top teams to get there. Because of their schedule, I don't expect UML to be involved in this benchmark until perhaps very close to the end, if at all.

    ---
    BU's tie and UML's win inject just enough points into the middle of the standings that PC, BU, UML have to end up at least at 25/24/24 in some order. That puts 4th place at a minimum of 25, so we'll move the Home Eligible line there.

    ---
    With Maine's current 9th highest Max at 28, that's the total to beat to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, so that's the In line.

    Normally, if you can't reach the banked points of the current 8th (UMA's 15), you're out. However, given the interplay left between the bottom three, the lowest that I can make 8th is 17, so that's where we'll set the Out line.
    Last edited by Todd; 02-17-2013, 03:45 AM. Reason: Forgot to change Out number in table, even though noted in text.
    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
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    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
    Scarlet - What he said.
    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
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    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

      After Sat 2/16:
      BU 5 @ ME 4 OT,
      UVM 3 @ NU 1,
      UMA 2 @ UML 3

      --- Home Lock - 37 (BC/UNH/BU/MC/PC) ---
      MC 26 - 40 [1-8]
      --- In - 26 (ME/UMA) ---
      BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
      UNH 24 - 38 [1-9]
      BU 24 - 38 [1-9]
      PC 23 - 37 [1-]
      UML 22 - 36 [1-10]
      UVM 18 - 30 [1-10]
      UMA 15 - 29 [2-10]
      ME 14 - 26 [4-10]
      NU 11 - 25 [4-10]
      --- Home Eligible - 25 (UNH/PC/UML) ---
      --- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

      Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
      MC - @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
      BC - UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
      UNH - @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
      BU - UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
      PC - MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
      UML - @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
      UVM - UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
      UMA - NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
      ME - @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
      NU - @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU


      It just...

      keeps...

      getting...

      tighter.

      ---
      5th place BU's late OT win* jumps them over PC back up into a Home Ice position and actually into a tie for 3rd with UNH only two points out of first.

      * (under :05 to go, from a tap-in off a two-man breakaway rush from their own end, as Maine collapsed in to rally in their offensive zone - What? How does that happen?)

      And, of course, because it's a BU game since Festivus 2012, BU rattled off four straight to take a 3-goal lead before Maine responded with three-in-a-row of their own to send it to OT.

      ---
      6th place UML stays in 6th, but their victory squeezes the last air bubble out of the top six. Every point won at the moment moves someone up or down in those standings.

      ---
      Adding four more banked points into the BU/PC/UML mix turns last post's 25/24/24 into 26/26/25. However, you could still have a 25/24/24 line by swapping UNH in for BU, so we'll leave the Home Eligible Line at 25, but swap the indicator teams.

      ---
      The top six are packed so densely that they are beginning to absorb light. It's even possible that Vermont may have crossed the Event Horizon and is being tugged into the pack which, given UVM's victory tonight and remaining schedule, is quite possible.

      ---
      The other side of the coin tonight is that the bottom three all lost. We've entered the point of the season where the drop in possibilities for the bottom group will accelerate. With the top teams so close, that drop will be precipitous, as every game lost will pass teams in chunks.

      Here's an example:

      NU's Max dropped from 27 to 25 tonight with their loss. While previously they could pass any given team, they already couldn't get 1st because the schedule required that someone would be ahead of them, we just couldn't say who. Now at 25 Max, we know they can't catch MC (26). They could catch BC, but lose the H2H tb, so they'd need a mutli-way tb in their favor.

      But merely tying BC would mean that BC losses would put at least UNH (26) and PC (27) ahead of them, so 4th at best. If we instead cede 2nd for NU and hope for BC to sop up enough points for NU to reach 3rd, that still won't work. NU could hope for a 3-way tie with BU and PC at 25 and take that on a 5-1-0 tb, but that would leave UML with 27 and UVM with 26.

      Can NU cede the top three slots and try to hang on for Home Ice? Well, as expected with Home Eligible at 25, it'll be close. It depends on who it is that has the 25. It's possible for NU to be in a tie for 4th and win a H2H tb with, say, PC (with a sweep next weekend giving NU 2-1-0 on the season). So, the opportunity for points missed from just one game (tonight) drops NU from a possible 2nd to 4th, by their fingernails.

      ---
      Maine could tie MC, but loses that tb, so ME can't catch MC without some sort of multi-way tb help. With a 0-2-1 (as opposed to 1-2-0) against MC and no 3-0-0 sweeps possible (and a 2-0-1 vs. UMA wouldn't matter), ME would need at least a favorable four-way tie to get their round-robin record above .500 to have a shot.

      MC and BC play. BC and UNH play. MC-BU. MC-PC. MC-UML. BC-UML. BC-PC. BU-UML. PC-UML. UVM against UNH, BU, BC. There are just too many points to hold back that have to go somewhere in here.

      Ultimately, like NU, Maine could be 4th - but at 26, they could be ahead of the 25/24/24 Home Eligible crew by themselves.

      ---
      With 29 Max, UMA could pass anyone, but they can no longer pass the entire field. Best case: 2nd.

      ---
      UVM could still top everyone with 30 points.

      ---
      From the top of the stack down:

      As noted, MC can't be caught by NU. It would also be questionable as to whether ME could get past MC on tbs, but that turns out to be moot.

      We can fairly easily get MC behind the rest of the top seven. NU can't catch them, so their points are usable by other squads. If UMA and ME win out, with only their own series pending, we have MC at their banked 26, UMA at 25 and ME at 22.

      Of course ME would need to sweep everything to reach their Max, so they would need all the points from UMA just to tie MC. But that would leave UMA behind MC anyway at 25. If UMA takes any points from Maine, that would leave Maine short of MC, so UMA might as well take them all.

      Net result: MC has to finish ahead of NU and at least one of UMA/ME. With two teams unable to catch them, that secures 8th - and a playoff spot for MC. The Warriors are our first team in.

      ---
      Accordingly, after tonight's losses and considering the schedules as we just have, I will move the In line to 26 with UMA/ME as the factors.

      ---
      For BC, it's fairly quick to see that they haven't clinched yet.

      Referencing the MC clinching scenario above: if we split the UMA/ME series 1/3, that puts UMA above BC at 26 and gives ME enough points to catch BC at 25 and take the final playoff spot by virtue of their weekend sweep at Conte three weeks ago. BC can still be 9th and out.

      ---
      Looking at the bottom three - and their interlocking schedules - a different way, the Max that I can get for 10th is now actually a two-way tie for 9th at 23, whatever pair that might be of the three.

      That puts BC, UNH and BU out of reach of 10th (BC already was) and PC in a potential three-way tie at 9th. With PC already owning the tb with ME (2-0-1) and UMA (2-1-0), even a sweep next weekend by NU would mean, at worst, that PC would be 2nd in the round-robin break at 23. 2nd is not last out of three, so PC is also no longer at risk for 10th.

      At 22 banked, UML and therefore everyone below, are still 10th-eligible.

      ---
      Since only one (BU) of the five indicator teams for Home Lock played tonight, and they won, that line doesn't move - it is just as hard to lock up Home Ice as it was when the night started.

      Since all three of the indicator teams for Out lost tonight, that line also does not move - as no team made it any harder to reach 8th place for those below.

      ---
      The pair of Sunday 4:00 games should prove interesting for how things shift in the aftermath.

      At the rate we've been going we'll get either:

      The lower two (PC and UNH) will win, which will give us a pair (MC, UNH) at 26, a pair (BC, PC) at 25, and a team (BU at 24) two points out of first that wouldn't get Home Ice if the playoffs were seeded Monday.

      - or -

      two ties.
      The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
      cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
      smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
      MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
      Scarlet - What he said.
      brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
      TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
      Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
      Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
      Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
      David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
      Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

        Ahem...

        Originally posted by Todd View Post
        ---
        The pair of Sunday 4:00 games should prove interesting for how things shift in the aftermath.

        At the rate we've been going we'll get either:

        ...

        - or -

        two ties.
        Called it.

        Just sayin'.
        The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
        cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
        smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
        MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
        Scarlet - What he said.
        brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
        TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
        Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
        Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
        Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
        David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
        Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

          After Sun 2/17:
          UNH 4 @ BC 4 OT
          MC 2 @ PC 2 OT

          --- Home Lock - 37 (MC/BC/UNH/BU) ---
          MC 27 - 39 [1-8]
          BC 26 - 38 [1-8]
          --- In - 26 (ME/UMA) ---
          UNH 25 - 37 [1-9]
          BU 24 - 38 [1-9]
          PC 24 - 36 [1-9]
          UML 22 - 36 [1-10]
          UVM 18 - 30 [1-10]
          UMA 15 - 29 [2-10]
          ME 14 - 26 [4-10]
          --- Home Eligible - 25 (UNH/PC/UML) ---
          NU 11 - 25 [5-10]
          --- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

          Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
          MC - BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
          BC - @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
          UNH - @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
          BU - UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
          PC - NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
          UML - @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
          UVM - UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
          UMA - NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
          ME - @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
          NU - @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU


          So that's fun.

          Four of the top five teams faced off Sunday afternoon and the result was sister-kissing on the level not seen since... Angelina Jolie and her brother got really creepy at that awards show a few years back - unless, of course, you live in [insert locale of rumored incestuous population of your choice here], in which case, it was just "Sunday".

          By which I mean: both games were ties.

          Now the whole group taking a half-step forward might seem like it has little impact, but remember how tightly packed everything is and how fragile all of the benchmarks and seeding ranges are at this point. One point makes a huge difference.

          ----
          Sure, all four teams add one to their banked point totals - but they also all drop one from their respective Maxes.

          That means that there are now only four teams capable of reaching the current Home Lock line of 37. Does that mean we have to drop the line, or just drop PC (new Max 36) as a factor from the benchmark?

          Simple enough to figure out.

          UNH's Max is now 37, so they'd have to win out - but they're done within the group, so that's fine.
          BU has one point to play with, so let's give them a tie in their storm-delayed game with MC and otherwise win out to also hit 37.
          The tie w/ BU would drop MC's Max even with BC's at 38, giving each one point to spare. The only remaining game within the group is a single MC/BC match. A tie here uses up both spares, but gives both teams 37 after winning out, so we can still have a four-way tie at 37.

          That means Home Lock will stay at 37 for now, but any points lost outside this exact scenario will drop it.

          ----
          Since the teams that tied were all adjacent in banked points, we just did analysis on seeding ranges at those totals, and all four moved up one point, much of the day's analysis work is already done.

          For example: Coming into the day, MC had clinched at 26, but BC had not at 25. That was because 26 is beyond NU and either ME or UMA also had to fall short of 26. No tbs, just straight-up point counting. So now that BC adds a point to get to 26, they become the second team to clinch a spot. Congrats, Eagles.

          ----
          Next up: BC had not clinched at 25 because even though one of UMA/ME had to top out at 25, BC would lose on tbs to ME. Now that UNH has moved to 25, does that apply to them as well, or have they won the tbs and clinched?

          Well, neither of their UMA or ME tbs is settled yet, but that just means those games are still to come. Since the scenario demands that UNH lose out to stay at 25, that mandates that they would lose a pair - and the tbs - to both. Therefore, whichever of UMA or ME one sticks at a hypothetical 25, UNH would lose the H2H tb, and - like BC yesterday - could still be 9th.

          ----
          At 23, PC was escaping 10th only by virtue of owning tbs on whatever collection ended up in a three-way tier for 9th in the highest possible current outcome for distributing points to the bottom of the league - which was also 23. Now that they are at 24, they join the other top squads that are beyond tbs and do it on points alone. Same seeding range result, but more straightforward to determine.

          ----
          Since UNH and PC (with idle UML) were part of the group setting the Home Eligible line at 25 with a possible 25/24/24 points distribution, adding a point to each levels that out to 25/25/25. So Home Eligible stays at 25, but it would have to be at least a three-way tie with those three teams.

          ----
          The flip side of UNH and PC moving up one point is that NU was barely hanging on to a chance at Home Ice with the Home Eligible line at 25 and could get there by winning a tb with PC at 25.

          The long version is in a separate post to follow, but all that discussion leads to: NU can no longer get a H2H tb w/ PC that would give them Home Ice, but would have to get atop a 4-to-6-way tie - any combination of which, they would lose. NU is iced out of a Home slot.

          That said, NU could still take 5th place at 25 either on their own or in a tie with BU, PC, or both.

          ----
          With the Home Eligible line scraping by at 25, Maine's 26 Max means they could still be 4th solo and grab Home Ice.

          UMA can still get ahead of all but one team (TBD) and grab 2nd, while UVM can still top the field solo.

          ----
          Just for fun:

          One notable thing about the possible six-way tie at 25 is that they would be situated such that most would get a similar result - on the road for the QFs. However, the winner of the group would get Home Ice and the loser of the group would be 9th and Out.

          Reminds me of the NewsRadio "Big Day" episode (with "The Big Bonus" and "The Shaft").

          If you haven't seen it, click here for context and my favorite part begins at 3:10 of this chunk - but I am very familiar with the original movie and the Isaac Hayes score.

          If you aren't familiar with the movie, you may also be unaware that the Shaft soundtrack (which they are quoting) is the inspiration for the character of "Chef" on South Park, voiced by Isaac Hayes.
          The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
          cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
          smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
          MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
          Scarlet - What he said.
          brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
          TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
          Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
          Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
          Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
          David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
          Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

            ---- NU cannot get Home Ice: The Long Version ----

            ***Nothing besides this detailed thought experiment is posted in this thread , so if you're not into it, save yourselves...***

            Since the Home Eligible Line is a three-or-more-way tie at 25 (using UNH/PC/UML as the smallest combo), and NU's Max is 25, for NU to have a shot at Home Ice, they would have to win out on a four-or-more-way tie at 25.

            They would have to sweep a weekend with PC to get there (which is why they could have taken 4th before today, when it could have been H2H), but they are already 0-2-1 against both UNH and UML and lost the first game with PC. That puts them at a comparative 2-5-2 in the first tb. UNH, by comparison, is 5-2-2 in the same group.

            MC and BC are already beyond 25 and Maine would have to fall short of 25 by losing four points to NU, if NU were to win out. Therefore, none of those three teams could join the four at 25 to improve (or harm) NU's lot within the tb group.

            To get the specific outcome of 25/25/25 with UNH/PC/UML, UNH, PC, and UML would all have to lose out except for PC/UML splitting their series 1/3. That means BU sweeps UML and is beyond 25 points.

            However, adding in BU to a round-robin would add 3-0-0 to NU (won the first game, would have to sweep to hit 25). To do that, BU could only earn one more point. That means no sweep of UML, which moves UML above the group. Since that brings BU - who was above the group - back down to it, this would still be a theoretical tie for 4th with Home Ice on the table - but instead of a five-way tie adding BU, it's a swap, BU for UML. That works for NU, since they drop a 0-2-1 and pick up a 3-0-0, a massive swing. Instead of 2-5-2, they'd be 5-3-1 (UNH:0-2-1, BU:3-0-0, PC:2-1-0).

            BUT...

            For UNH to lose out, that means UVM moves up from 18 to 22 points and has a pair with BU to resolve. The only way for BU to be in the mix at 25 is to take a single point from the rest of their schedule. If that point isn't taken against Vermont, the Cats will leap over the logjam at 25 and make Home Ice irrelevant. That means we require a 1/3 BU/UVM split, which brings UVM also into the party at 25. That means we can't add BU without also adding in UVM.

            NU is 0-3-0 against UVM, so instead of adding BU's 3-0-0, it's BU/UVM's 3-3-0. Still, that's a good trade for NU in place of the UML 0-2-1. That now puts them at 5-6-1 in the NU/UNH/BU/PC/UVM pool.

            Whether 2-5-2 or 5-6-1, both are sub-.500, and sub-.500 - by definition - cannot be the best round-robin record (RRR), no matter the size of the group.

            NU is 1-1-0 vs UMA, but could win the remaining game and leave UMA enough points to join the 25ers. That would add 2-1-0 to their RRR and bring them up to .500 at 7-7-1 in the BU/UVM scenario.

            Better, but in order for NU to come out on top, they would have to have everyone else in the group each also be .500 (it's zero-sum: if someone is under, then someone is over - and anyone over beats NU) and then win it on the next tb, which is league wins.

            Skipping past the six-way RRR calculations, and keeping in mind what I have said about using banked ties to figure out league wins, we can compare to NU's 3 and get a quick result to see if all that calculation is necessary. The comparison NU needs is to have the fewest ties (which equates to more wins noting that 1-1-0 & 0-0-2 are each two points, but the latter can't un-bank their ties and would lose a "most wins" tb), which - at worst - would move them to the next tb level. UNH has 3, BU has 2, but would pick up a 3rd vs. UVM. PC has 6 and would add a 7th. UVM has 4 and would add a 5th. Looking good so far. (UML also has 2 and would add a 3rd, but the BU/UVM 3-3-0 combo is preferable to UML's 0-2-1, so UML is moot here.)

            Here's where the potential for irony comes in: It is the inclusion of UMA that brings NU's RRR to .500, but UMA only has 1 tie, meaning that they could be the only team at 25 to have more wins than NU. However, they have wiggle room to add a pair of ties (but not two pairs) to also be at 3, so NU would still be alive here if they made it this far.

            However, that would just serve to bump NU, UNH, BU, UMA into another round of tb with their matching W-L-T records. Here NU would luck out because, instead of dropping down to the next level (record against top team(s) - whichever of MC/BC/UML that might be - where UNH (at least) has a better record against BC and UML, and BU is better against MC), that foursome would start over. That drops NU's 0-3-0 w/ UVM, but also the 2-1-0 w/ PC. Still, that's back to 5-3-1 - where NU was after adding BU, but before factoring in UVM or UMA.

            Since 5-3-1 might be a winning scenario, I guess we need to go back to calculate some six-way RRRs to see if we can find even a single non-.500, since above-.500 beats NU and sub-.500 implies a super-.500 elsewhere.

            UNH at 25 has: BU: 2-1-0 + UMA: 0-3-0 + NU: 2-0-1 + PC: 0-2-1 + UVM: 1-2-0 = 5-8-2. UNH is under .500, which means that at least one of the other six is above. NU can't win any tb in these cases (UNH/PC/UML/NU, UNH/BU/PC/UVM/NU, UNH/BU/PC/UVM/UMA/NU) which eliminates them from Home Ice.

            To clarify: if fewer than all three of UNH/PC/UML (or UNH/PC/[BU/UVM]) were tied at 25, that would mean that one of them had taken more points, and 25 wouldn't be relevant for Home Ice. So, NU could still beat PC or BU in a H2H tb at 25, it just wouldn't be for 4th.
            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
            cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
            smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
            MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
            Scarlet - What he said.
            brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
            TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
            Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
            David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
            Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

              Great job Todd ... as usual.
              Monty

              2011-2012 NCAA Tournament Participants
              2012-2013 Hockey East Regular Season Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions, and Frozen Four Participants
              2013-2014 Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants
              2015-2016 NCAA Tournament Participants
              2016-2017 Hockey East Regular Season Co-Champions, Hockey East Tournament Champions and NCAA Tournament Participants

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                We need a new category for the record for ties in a HE season. I think PC has a shot at that...

                (keep up the good work!)

                "I have come up with a plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a weasel. ."
                -Blackadder
                "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. "
                -Casablanca
                "They could maybe hire another officer to catch the illegal immigrant drug dealers breast feeding at Dunkin' Donuts or whatever it is! Thank you!"
                -Somerville Speakout

                2008 POTY

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                  Originally posted by Jon View Post
                  We need a new category for the record for ties in a HE season. I think PC has a shot at that...

                  (keep up the good work!)
                  hey. i hear the coffin is under construction and has limited capacity. i'm guessing y'all will be hosting bu. will tickets be a problem?
                  a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                    Originally posted by Todd View Post

                    --- Home Lock - 37 (MC/BC/UNH/BU) ---
                    MC 27 - 39 [1-8]
                    BC 26 - 38 [1-8]
                    --- In - 26 (ME/UMA) ---
                    UNH 25 - 37 [1-9]
                    BU 24 - 38 [1-9]
                    PC 24 - 36 [1-9]
                    UML 22 - 36 [1-10]
                    UVM 18 - 30 [1-10]
                    UMA 15 - 29 [2-10]
                    ME 14 - 26 [4-10]
                    --- Home Eligible - 25 (UNH/PC/UML) ---
                    NU 11 - 25 [5-10]
                    --- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---
                    Thanks, Todd! This is great.

                    With six (or seven) RS games yet remaining, have we ever seen a year where 40 points was out of every team's reach so early? A while back UNH finished first with 36 points (15-6-6), but it may take even fewer this time. Going into the last weekend, there still will be wild swings in the standings.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                      Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                      hey. i hear the coffin is under construction and has limited capacity. i'm guessing y'all will be hosting bu. will tickets be a problem?
                      Part of me says "no" because I haven't seen a sell out against a team other than BC for a while now,but the game against Merrimack was very well attended and Merrimack doesn't have as many fans who travel as BU does.

                      "I have come up with a plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a weasel. ."
                      -Blackadder
                      "I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. "
                      -Casablanca
                      "They could maybe hire another officer to catch the illegal immigrant drug dealers breast feeding at Dunkin' Donuts or whatever it is! Thank you!"
                      -Somerville Speakout

                      2008 POTY

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                        Originally posted by Jon View Post
                        We need a new category for the record for ties in a HE season. I think PC has a shot at that...

                        (keep up the good work!)
                        The record is 8 ties set by the 2006-07 BU Terriers. Providence and Maine both have 6 this season.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                          The record is 8 ties set by the 2006-07 BU Terriers. Providence and Maine both have 6 this season.
                          Hey if they can't score on you, you cant lose!
                          Last edited by ericredaxe; 02-18-2013, 04:28 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                            Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                            hey. i hear the coffin is under construction and has limited capacity. i'm guessing y'all will be hosting bu. will tickets be a problem?
                            Originally posted by Jon View Post
                            Part of me says "no" because I haven't seen a sell out against a team other than BC for a while now,but the game against Merrimack was very well attended and Merrimack doesn't have as many fans who travel as BU does.
                            "Sell out" or full building?

                            The BU game was a sellout, but the building was cavernously empty. In fact, the last three games (BU, UNH, MC) were all listed as sellouts,

                            The issue is the construction-reduced fire-safety capacity of the Coffin - the literal version of which we would want to avoid (esp. as we hit the 10th anniversary of the Station fire) - which is now only 2089.

                            True that PC, sadly, hasn't sold well in a while, but a half-empty building is still a sellout until half the fire exits aren't blocked off.

                            That said, I wouldn't start buying tickets for PC (or anyone) hosting just yet. Currently, PC would be going to Agganis because BU owns the tb.

                            Other than that, you could use any psychological or mathematically predictive model that you want:

                            "MC is in 1st place with three weeks to go and has to get passed by FOUR teams to end up on the road? Not gonna happen. They're a lock for Home Ice."
                            "BC has been here before. They know what to do to close out the RS. Home Ice? I'm looking for them to catch MC and take the RS Title..."
                            "Are you kidding me? UNH has the easiest remaining schedule on paper, with three of the bottom four teams. There's no way they get caught from behind and they're already in Home Ice position."
                            "Oh yeah? Well, BU plays a similar three-of-bottom-five, including last place NU (which UNH does not) - but they also have a game-in-hand (vs. MC) and have five of seven at home!"
                            "All that matters is that UML/UVM controls their own fate because they only face the teams ahead of them in the battle for Home Ice. The Hawks/Cats are going to claw their way into Home Ice - over the bodies of their opponents!"

                            So what was your rationale for assuming PC would host? Not that they won't, but I wouldn't bet on any one team at this point.

                            Ultimately, the top six teams are within a five-point range. Way too close to call. Esp. re: PC hosting as they are currently 5th.
                            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                            cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                            smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                            MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                            Scarlet - What he said.
                            brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                            TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                            Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                            David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                            Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                              Originally posted by Todd View Post
                              So what was your rationale for assuming PC would host? Not that they won't, but I wouldn't bet on any one team at this point..
                              pc has a 2pt lead, and while they play lowell 2x, they also get nu 2x (which lowell does not).

                              lowell does have 2 vs mc, and pc has 2 vs bc - so those could be a wash--or a big leap. we'll see
                              a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                                Originally posted by ericredaxe View Post
                                Hey if they can't score on you, you cant lose!
                                Ironically, that was the very season that BU disproved that axiom.
                                The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                                cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                                smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                                MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                                Scarlet - What he said.
                                brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                                TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                                Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                                Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                                Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                                David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                                Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                                Comment

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